[15:28 US TECHS: Commodities Outlook; Gold and Oil] Boston, January 16.  
[Gold] 
remains inside a large triangle set since peaks were hit in May of last year,   
with lows defined by June floors (all on nearest futures).  Weakness earlier    
this month prompted a new bearish Trend Intensity signal but that gave way on   
the lack of follow-through lower and last Friday"s surge.  The tendency to avoid
the lower end of the triangle (below $570, near the H&S top objective) means the
market is more inclined to work its way higher and eventually break out.  The   
top of the pattern is just over $643 and the trendline drops just over $1 every 
two days.  Intraday supports are well defined at $627, $625.50 and $623.50.     
Daily trends are bullish and weekly/monthly trends are headed that way.         
[Oil] is close to switching to March but we will track Feb one more day.    
All time frame trends are bearish, with dailies turning neutral above $53.25.   
Although IFR"s proprietary Trend Intensity indicator has moved aggressively     
higher (seven double upticks in a row before Friday), today"s expected reading  
of 28 is not that rich compared to late Sep peaks at 44 from that leg down.     
Weekly supports are at $50.50 this week and monthly supports at $51.35 are still
intact.  While trends are clearly lower, risk of a backlash higher that cleans  
out a lot of shorts should be kept in mind.  If prices can stabilize soon, a    
bullish daily momentum divergence (compared with last Sep) will be on the       
charts.  In addition, maximum adverse excursion as measured by oscillator       
studies remains near all-time oversold readings, raising the risk of a big      
bounce.  Very short-term resistance is at $52.20-60.  Joel.Marver@thomson.com