STI recovers exactly two-thirds

Najeeb Jarhom   najeeb@amfraser.com.sg

A simple measure of index performance of the 4 markets clearly shows the ST Index has outshone the rest, making an exactly 66.6% recovery of its crash from 3831 to 1455 when it touched 3038 last week.

Wall Street comes closest to Singapore, up 60.6% (at latest 2010 high of 11,155) from 2008 low of 6470.

More similarities between the 2 markets can be seen when both DJIA and STI reached 2010 highs at about the same time. But the Dow, which peaked at 14,198 in Oct 2007, still lags STI as it has yet to reach the Fibonacci 61.8% mark of 11,245.  If it were to match STI’s two-thirds recovery, it means another 462 points upside potential to Dow 11,617 to reach the STI’s equivalent of 3038.

The current resistance faced by the STI at 3000 psychological level and later at 3038 is perhaps to give the other 3 major indices time to play catch-up.

Strangely enough both HK and Shanghai had shown a better result last year with highs of 23,100 and 3478 respectively. This year’s highs for HSI and SCI are lower at 22,672 and 3307.

Shanghai despite China’s renewed economic and property boom, had recovered only 40.7% of its crash from record 6124 to 1665, at 3478 high last year but is now back to below the 38.2% mark of 3368. Because of its closer proximity with Wall Street and indirectly Singapore, HSI has recovered a much higher 58.4% at 2009 high of 23,100 but is now back to a slightly lower 55% recovery.