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News Update!
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krisluke
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21-Apr-2011 21:52
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10 Things You Need To Know This Morning![]() Image: AP Good morning. Here's what you need to know.  
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krisluke
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21-Apr-2011 00:07
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13 Things Everyone Does At Work That They Don't Want Bosses To Know AboutIt's hard to put in 8+ hours each day of straight work.  People break up it up by talking to coworkers, checking Facebook, taking long lunches, and instant messaging friends.
  We scoured the web for the biggest work time-wasters and employee fibs. Some activities are pretty normal, like frequently checking email.  Others, like watching and downloading porn, happen so frequently it's shocking. |
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 23:58
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CHART OF THE DAY: Blue Jays Prospects Have The Longest Road To The Majors (Literally)With the everyday nature of Major League Baseball, it is not uncommon for teams to need reinforcements from their minor league affiliates on short notice. So when hours can make the difference between being short-handed or having a full roster, it is nice to have a Triple-A farm club close by. Apparently the Blue Jays missed the memo. The average distance from a Triple-A team and their parent franchise is approximately 434 miles. The Blue Jays top minor club, the Las Vegas 51s, are 2,261 miles from Toronto. The next biggest distance between clubs is the Minnesota Twins, whose AAA partner in Rochester, New York is 1,012 miles away (by car). Here is the distance between every major league team and the city that hosts their Triple-A affiliate...
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 23:48
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Here's JPMorgan's Chilling Report On " The Domino Effect Of A US Treasury Technical Default"A new report from JPMorgan explodes the myth that a technical default by the US Treasury -- a couple of missed coupon payments -- would be no big deal. To recap, a growing number of analysts like Chris Whalen and BofA's Jeffrey Rosenberg have been out saying that a technical default would be no big deal.
Beyond that, a technical default -- which again, assumes that in short order the Treasury starts paying its coupon again -- would have long-term adverse consequences on rates. The most analogous situation to a US default in recent history actually happened in Peru in 2000, which defaulted despite not having any problems making payments.
There are other impacts as well. A technical default could have a similar impact on foreign willingness to hold Treasuries as the conservatorship of Fannie and Freddie had on GSE holdings by foreigners (they collapsed). And of course, then, all of this would hit growth. JPMorgan estimates that we'd see a minimum 1% GDP hit thanks to higher rates and a presumed selloff in equities. Of course, a default by the world's most stable nation would probably have impacts in ways nobody can imagine, but one thing seems to be clear. The notion -- as some people suggest -- that a default would somehow increase US credit-worthiness is absurd. |
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 23:43
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U.S. manufacturers see improving economy ahead
* United Tech, Eaton Corp top earnings expectations
  * Textron misses on weak Cessna business   * Sign that Japan quake effects limited-investor   * Expectations high this earnings season-analyst   * United Tech, Eaton shares up Textron down (Adds executive quotes on Japan, updates shares)   By Scott Malone and Nick Zieminski   BOSTON/NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - A pair of top U.S. manufacturers topped Wall Street's profit expectations, as a recovering global economy drives demand for products ranging from air conditioners to truck transmissions.   United Technologies Corp and Eaton Corp also raised their full-year earnings forecasts, saying that they were becoming more confident in the economy's heading.   Textron Inc, the world's biggest maker of corporate jets, posted earnings that missed analysts' expectations on weakness at its Cessna aircraft unit, but held its full-year forecast steady.   " We think that the rest of the year is going to be very positive," said Oliver Pursche, president of Gary Goldberg Financial Services in Suffern, New York, which holds shares in both United Tech and Textron.   The first-quarter results show that strong demand from China, India and other emerging markets had offset the disruptions to supplies of some electronic components in the wake of Japan's March 11 tsunami and ensuing nuclear crisis, Pursche said.whose products range from Otis elevators to Black Hawk military helicopters, and said it now sees strong demand around the world.   The world's biggest maker of air conditioners and elevators said first-quarter profit attributable to common stockholders came to $1.01 billion, or $1.11 per share, compared with earnings of $866 million, or 93 cents per share, a year earlier. Analysts had forecast a profit of $1.07 per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.   The company raised its full-year profit forecast by 5 cents to a range of $5.25 per share to $5.40 per share, representing growth of 11 percent to 14 percent and marking the second increase since United Tech first issued its outlook.   When the Hartford, Connecticut-based company in December had laid out its initial 2011 profit forecast, it had warned investors that the U.S. and European economies looked " sluggish" and that a drop in the value of the euro versus the dollar could drag down its earnings by as much as 3 percent.   " It seemed inevitable that we needed to raise the guidance because the risks that we saw earlier in the year just don't seem to be materializing," United Tech Chief Financial Officer Greg Hayes said in an interview.   Strong demand for Carrier air conditioners boosted results, sending United Tech shares up almost 5 percent to hit a new lifetime high of $86.42 on the New York Stock Exchange. Near midday, they had given back some of the gains but were still up 4.3 percent to $85.94.   EXPECTATIONS HIGH   The industrial sector has generally outperformed the broader market over the past year, with the Standard & Poor's capital goods industry index up 13 percent, while the full S& P 500 has gained 9.5 percent.   That climb has raised investors' expectations heading into the earnings reporting season.   " They have to beat strong," said analyst Brian Langenberg of Langenberg & Co in Chicago. " They have to surprise."   Eaton, which makes truck transmissions, hydraulic systems and electrical products, reported profit of 84 cents per share, 4 cents more than analysts had expected.   Eaton shares, meanwhile, rose 0.8 percent to $53.07 and Textron fell 2.7 percent to $25.09.   The three companies kick off a wave of earnings reports from big U.S. manufacturers. Honeywell International Inc expects to report after the market's close on Wednesday and General Electric Co is due to report on Thursday. Analysts look for the largest U.S. conglomerate to post 33 percent profit growth.   Other blue-chip industrials, including 3M Co and Caterpillar Inc, are due to report results next week.   JAPAN A WORRY   The sector faces a few major risks this year, including rising energy prices and the aftermath of Japan's nuclear crisis, which threatens to curtail supplies of some key electronic components made in that country.   Textron, which also makes industrial components used by auto-parts makers, said it expects second-quarter sales to be hurt by a dip in demand from some Japanese customers.   " They expect second-quarter production slowdowns will be substantially made up in the second half of the year," said Scott Donnelly, chief executive of the Providence, Rhode Island-based company.   Textron's first-quarter earnings of 10 cents per share missed Wall Street's 17-cent forecast, reflecting still-lackluster demand for its Cessna corporate jets.   United Technologies, meanwhile, could face short supplies of key electronic components including flash memory chips used in air conditioner controllers and electric capacitors used in control chips across many of its products.   " Right now we have adequate supply it's just a question of making sure that we continue to have access to that," Hayes said. " In the grand scheme of UTC, we don't see any material impact but I think you'll see bits and drabs of this over the course of the year." (Reporting by Scott Malone and Nick Zieminski Editing by Lisa Von Ahn) |
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 23:42
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Fear-fueled rally drives gold above $1,500/oz
Refined gold is poured into moulds to be made into gold bars at South Africa's Rand Refinery in Germiston
  SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Gold extended its record-breaking run on Wednesday to touch an all-time high above $1,500, driven by a long list of supportive factors including worries about European and U.S. government debt levels, inflation and turmoil in the Middle East.   Gold traditionally benefits from a weaker dollar, times of political and economic uncertainty, and during periods of rising inflation.   " Events in the past few weeks have certainly ticked most of the boxes for strong gold prices. The outlook going forward depends on how long you think sovereign debt and inflation will remain a concern," said Ben Westmore, commodities economist an National Australia Bank.   " The S& P threat to rerate U.S. debt is an indication that sovereign debt worries are not confined to the Europeans and the discussion around debt in the future will result in safe haven buying, and that is unlikely to abate any time soon."   Standard & Poor's said on Monday that it might cut its long-term rating on the United States within two years, unless Washington can rein in its budget deficit.   That came on the heels of China's eleventh move to tighten monetary policy in its fight against inflation, oil prices around their highest in 32 months and a devastating earthquake and subsequent nuclear disaster in Japan, which exposed weaknesses in the nation's electricity infrastructure.   " Investors are focusing on gold's nature as a safe asset and its universality, that it can be cashed anywhere at any time," Tetsu Emori, fund manager at Astmax Co in Tokyo, said.   " Given that few countries in the world appear to be in a sound fiscal state nowadays, the focus is all the more put on safety, as reflected in the strength in gold not only in dollar but non-dollar currencies."   Adding to the heady mix for gold are turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, where Libya has dissolved into civil war, revolution in Egypt and Tunisia and protests in a host of Gulf States.   Furthermore, the dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a basket of currencies, is trading near 16-month lows hit last week, boosting the appeal of gold in non-dollar denominated currencies.   " In a word, sensational. Everything's feeding into this -- sovereign debt, the weaker dollar, inflation and investment demand," said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services in Sydney.   " It is unusual to do it in Asian time. It goes to show how much appetite there is in Asia for bullion," he said noting the high probability that gold could rise by another $20 before catching its breath.   EXPLOSIVE INTEREST   Spot gold prices have rallied steadily from around $430 an ounce in mid-2005 to a record high of $1,502.91 on Wednesday.   For most of the 1980s, all the 1990s and the first half of the last decade gold traded between $250 and $500, and averaged just $360 in the period.   But since then, an explosion in exchange traded funds -- instruments that trade like shares, but are backed by physical metal -- and growth in commodities as an asset class has seen investor interest soar.   Most notable was the SPDR Gold Trust, which was established in 2004, and at 1,231 tonnes ranks behind the United States, Germany, the International Monetary Fund, Italy and France as the world's sixth largest holder of gold.   The SPDR had fallen a little out of favour with investors, posting its biggest quarterly drop in its history in the three months ending March 31, dropping 5.4 percent.   But holdings have snapped back by a little over 25 tonnes this month -- with the inflow worth an estimated $1.2 billion.   Physical bullion sellers are also finding a ready market -- Asian retail investors are paying a premium of $150 to $250 an ounce for physical material.   One of the main reasons investors have bought gold in the past was a way to protect themselves against rising prices of other goods. Inflation in a number of Asian economies, including China, India, South Korea, Indonesia and Singapore, is running well ahead of levels in Europe, Japan and the United States.   While gold prices are well below their inflation adjusted highs of more than $2,200 struck in 1980 at a time when bullion prices spiked in response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, gold has held its own in recent years against rising prices.   " Although in the developed world signs of inflation are preliminary, expectations of rising prices are increasing," NAB's Westmore said.   " Buying physical commodities, which traditionally are a good store of value, would be wise if you are in the camp that believes expanded monetary policy is likely to fuel inflation." |
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 23:41
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Oil climbs above $123 on bullish stocks data
* Dollar weakness boosting commodity risk appetite
  * IEA's Tanaka says high prices dampening demand   * EIA weekly data shows U.S. crude oil stocks down     (Recasts, updates prices and quotes, adds EIA data)   By Claire Milhench   LONDON, April 20 (Reuters) - Brent and U.S. crude oil futures rallied more than $2 on Wednesday, with Brent over $123 a barrel, helped by a weekly draw in U.S. crude inventories that confounded expectations for a stock build, and by a weaker dollar.   ICE Brent crude was up $2.11 at $123.44 a barrel by 1506 GMT, after pushing to intra-day highs of $123.50.   U.S. crude was up $2.39 at $110.67 a barrel, after pushing to $110.89 in feverish trading after the bullish data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).   The EIA showed a fall in U.S. crude stocks of 2.32 million barrels week on the week, compared with forecasts for a 1.1 million barrel build. Gasoline and distillates inventories were also down.   Both crude oil futures contracts extended gains after the data. " Crude stocks fell for the first time in while, which took the market for a bullish surprise," said Mike Zarembski, an analyst at OptionsXpress in Chicago.   But Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks, pointed to a big drop in crude imports and suggested crude is now getting too expensive for refiners to buy. " They are feeling the same sticker shock that consumers are feeling at the pump," he said.   A weaker dollar is also supporting the oil price.   " Oil is up there with gold as an inflation hedge for investors," said Zarembski. " Everyone is still afraid to be short with the situation in the Middle East."   The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was down 0.86 percent by 1458 GMT. A weaker U.S. currency can support dollar-denominated commodities by rendering them less expensive for other currency holders.   " The dollar index has broken significantly below a long-term multi-year trendline, so we could see the selling accelerate," said GFT market strategist David Morrison. " It's a shorthand for commodity traders to look at the dollar index, which gives some support to commodities going forward."   Spot gold prices breached $1,500 for the first time ever, and silver hit a 31-year high on Wednesday.     DEMAND DESTRUCTION FEARS   The International Energy Agency's executive director, Nobuo Tanaka, issued the latest in a series of warnings on the effect of strong oil prices on demand in top consumers the United States and China.   Producer group OPEC needs to boost output in June or July to douse further price rises, Tanaka said, adding that if crude prices stayed at $100 a barrel or more for the rest of 2011, the market could see demand destruction similar to that of 2008.   OPEC has to date declined to make a coordinated increase in supply, despite growing concerns about demand destruction as world oil prices rocketed up to 2-1/2-year highs of $127 a barrel earlier this month amid unrest in the Middle East and North Africa.   " We don't have much fundamental news, but Saudi Arabia recently cut output in the last few weeks, which was not expected, and all in all prices could go up a bit," LBBW analyst Frank Schallenberger said. (Additional reporting by Francis Kan in Singapore and Zaida Espana in London, editing by Anthony Barker) |
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 23:39
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FOCUS Keppel Land: Earnings outlook intact Summary: Keppel Land’s (KPLD) 1Q11 PATMI came in at $92.1m after adjusting for a $24.4m divestment gain, core 1Q11 PATMI was $67.7m (up 7% YoY). Profits from the property trading and property investment segments were up 8.2% and 15.3% YoY respectively, largely due to the completion of Elita Promenade and a greater contribution from KREIT. In FY11, we expect Chinese residential unit sales to be lower. However, as most units are to be launched in Tier 2 cities, these will likely bear up better than Tier 1 in terms of volume. Pre-commitment at the OFC is up to 82.3% and we think occupancy will be robust by its planned completion. Looking ahead, we think possible divestments of OFC and MBFC (Ph 2), post stabilization, are possible price catalyst for the stock. We update assumptions and maintain a BUY rating on KPLD with our fair value edging down to $5.09 (at parity to RNAV) versus $5.12 previously. (Eli Lee) CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT): Market Street car park redevelopment finally comes into fruition Summary: CapitaCommercial Trust’s (CCT) 1Q11 results were mostly in line with our expectations. Gross revenue met 25.5% of our full-year forecast and was down 10.6% YoY and 1.2% QoQ to S$91m. 1Q11 DPU is 1.84 S-cents, representing an annualised yield of 5.3%. CCT also announced that it will be jointly developing Market Street Car Park (MSCP) into an ultra-modern Grade A office tower. The total project cost is estimated to be S$1.4b (S$1,944 psf on NLA basis). CCT will have a 40% stake in the JV and capital commitment of S$560m. The new office tower is estimated to provide a GFA of 887,000 sqft. We are overall positive on the MSCP redevelopment but remain wary that its land lease is only 59 years following completion in end 2014. We also forecast CCT to continue to experience negative rent reversions in 2011, but this should change in 2012. Reiterate BUY with an increased RNAV-derived fair value of S$1.63 (prev: S$1.61). (Ong Kian Lin) Straits Asia Resources: 1Q11 results mostly in line Summary: Straits Asia Resources (SAR) reported its 1Q11 results last evening, with revenue jumping 39.3% YoY (+3.1% QoQ) to US$213.7m, buoyed by increased coal volumes from Sebuku (394kt versus 244kt in 1Q10) and higher coal prices (ASP of US$82.16/ton versus US$71.6 in 1Q10). Net profit surged 269% YoY (+35.4% QoQ) to US$41.4m this was also due to lower cash costs of mining (US$46.1/ton versus US$50.2 in 1Q10). Although 1Q11 revenue and earnings met just 22% and 20% of our full-year forecasts respectively, we note that 1Q tends to be the seasonally weaker quarter. Nevertheless, we note that operating cashflow remains strong at +US$65.0m (versus +US$55.5m in 1Q10), while cash balance swelled to US$132.3m at end 1Q11, up from US$80.7m as of end Dec 2010. While the outlook for 2011 remains largely positive, supported by its higher coal output and rising coal prices, management expects cash costs of mining to increase due largely to the expected continuation of higher fuel prices and the increase in Jembayan’s strip ratio to its annual target. We will have more after the analyst conference call later and due to a change in analyst coverage, we are also placing our BUY rating and S$2.91 fair value under review. (Carey Wong) OSIM International: Acquires 35% equity stake in TWG Tea Summary: OSIM International Ltd (OSIM) announced that it is acquiring a 35% equity stake in luxury tea brand TWG Tea for a consideration of S$31.36m, funded by internal resources. A new joint venture would also be formed to support the two companies’ strategic expansion plans throughout Asia, with OSIM being the 60% major shareholder. We view this acquisition as being in line with OSIM’s strategic move to expand its portfolio of attractive specialty brands. Management assured us that this latest acquisition would not affect its store expansion plans, given the strong operating cashflows generated by its business. OSIM also expects this value added investment in TWG Tea to be earnings accretive. We retain our FY11 estimates as management believes that there would not be any material impact on its FY11 results. However we increase our FY12 earnings estimates by 2.2% after taking into account our forecasts on TWG Tea’s future earnings. Our fair value estimate of S$1.96 remains unchanged though as valuation is based on 22x FY11F EPS. Maintain BUY. (Wong Teck Ching Andy) Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT): Acquires third property in Korea Summary: Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported yesterday that it is acquiring the Iljuk Gyeonggi Centre in South Korea from Iljuk Gyeonggi Logistics Co. Ltd for a consideration of S$25.5m. Widely recognised as the largest logistics cluster in South Korea, Gyeonggi-do is an ideal location for warehouses and distribution centres due to its accessibility via major highways and close proximity to the Iljuk Expressway Interchange. This provides connectivity to other parts of South Korea, including the Seoul Metropolitan Area as well as several industrial developments in the adjacent Pangyo and Seongnam areas. The property comprises two blocks of 3-storey dry warehouses with a total GFA of about 23,400 sqm, and provides an initial NPI yield of 9.3%. It is leased to Seol Logistics Co. Ltd under a master head lease for 5 years with built-in rental escalation of 3.5% per annum. Assuming that the acquisition is fully funded by debt, MLT’s gearing level is expected to increase to approximately 40%. The acquisition is expected to complete by 2Q11. Upon completion, MLT’s total portfolio will increase to 97 properties with total book value of S$3,609m. We presently have a BUY rating on MLT with a fair value estimate of S$1.01. (Ong Kian Lin) For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor detailed report. NEWS HEADLINES - Singapore’s Nomination Day is set for 27 Apr, with Polling Day to be held on 7 May. - SingTel is stepping up its game in a bid to snag more fibre-optic broadband customers with the launch of a new service that allows consumers to play the latest Playstation and Xbox titles without ever buying these gaming consoles. - A subsidiary of Chasen Holdings has bagged an engineering project management contract worth RM5.13m (S$2.11m) in Malaysia. - CWT Ltd has announced the appointment of Jeremy Ang as the chief executive officer of its financial services arm Straits Financial Group. - The retail sector will be getting an S$86m productivity boost from Spring Singapore, Minister of State for Trade & Industry and Manpower Lee Yi Shyan announced. - After achieving a 25% pick-up in home sales last month, developers are continuing to push out new launches in Apr. - CapitaLand's wholly owned serviced apartment business unit, The Ascott Limited, has clinched a contract from China Overseas Property to manage its project in Macau. |
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 23:38
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Today’s Focus Upgrade CapitaCommercial Trust to BUY. The redevelopment of Market St carpark will provide mid-term boost. CapitaCommercial Trust’s 1Q11 results were within street estimates. Topline declined 10.6% yoy (-2.4% qoq) to $91m, due to lower revenue contribution from 6 Battery Rd following asset enhancement works as well as negative rent reversions and income vacuum left by the disposal of Starhub Centre and Robinson Point last year. The redevelopment of Market St carpark will provide mid-term boost. We upgrade the stock to Buy as we expect this redevelopment activity to provide share price re-rating catalyst. TP is raised slightly to $1.59 (Prev S$ 1.57) and offers 18% total return. Singapore Exchange reported 3Q11 underlying net profit of  S$77m (ex-ASX-SGX related expenses), driven by derivatives revenues. We have trimmed earnings by 8-9% for FY11-13 as we were overly optimistic of ADRs and underestimated proportion of the capped trades. Maintain Buy TP cut to S$10.50 (from S$11.50). Keppel Land’s results were in line with expectations and made up 25% of our full year forecast. The group has adopted a policy of recognizing overseas development earnings on a completed basis and this came from projects in India in Q1. New launches in Spore and overseas remain strong. With a strong balance sheet and gearing of 0.2x, Kepland is positioned to tap new opportunities in Spore and overseas. Maintain Buy with TP $5.09. 1Q11 net profit of US$41m for Straits Asia Resources was better than estimates. The outperformance was driven by lower-than-expected strip ratios and cash costs at both mines. Strip ratios will rise sequentially in line with mine plans maintain EPS estimates for FY11. ASP trend remains positive maintain BUY with TP of S$2.92. MapletreeLog has gained further traction in South Korea, with its third acquisition of Iljuk Gyeonggi Centre in South Korea for KRW 22bn (approximately S$25.5m). The initial net property income (NPI) yield is about 9.3%. The property, comprises two blocks of 3-storey dry warehouses, is leased to Seol Logistics Target Price SembCorp Marine Buy 5.87 6.63 Cosco Corporation Buy 2.32 3.16 Keppel Corp Buy 12.52 14.63 OCBC Bank Buy 9.32 11.30 Stock Picks – Small Cap Rec’n Price ($) 19/04 Target Price Ezion Holdings Buy 0.71 1.09 Mewah International Buy 1.01 1.21 Venture Corporation Buy 9.32 11.40 Hi-P International Buy 1.17 1.43 Source: Bloomberg, DBS Vickers Singapore Wired Daily Page 2 Today’s Focus (continued) under a master head lease for 5 years with built-in rental escalation of 3.5% per annum. The acquisition is likely to be fully funded by debt, which will increase MapletreeLog’s gearing level to approximately 40%. The acquisition is expected to complete by 2Q 2011. Post acquisition, contributions from South Korea will increase from 1.6% to 2.5%. We view this deal as positive for MLT's growth strategy, allowing it to widen and diversify its portfolio. However, initial impact on earnings and valuation is limited given the small expansion in asset size. DPU accretion from this purchase is estimated at 1-1.3% while DCF-backed TP remains at $1.07. Maintain BUY. Delong Holdings, a manufacturer of hot-rolled steel coils in China, plans to increase its production capacity through acquisitions. The company's current capacity stands at 2.6m tons and plans are afoot to increase this to 3m tons a year, with a target of 20m tons in 2015. This will be achieved through a series of planned acquisitions of steel manufacturers in Hebei province, a base for steel production. These acquisitions, currently under negotiations, are set to materialise in future quarters, according to chairman Ding Liguo. Chasen has secured engineering project worth S$2.13m in Malaysia. This project was awarded by an international oil major operating in Port Dickson, Malaysia. The project will have a positive contribution to the group financial result in the current financial year. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China surged 33% y-o-y in March as rising inflation and interest rates failed to dampen overseas confidence in the world's fastestgrowing major economy. Foreign investments added US$12.5 bn to China's economy. Investments increased at an annual rate of 29% in the first quarter. US markets rebounded the day after S& P lowered the ountry’s credit outlook as US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner gave an optimistic view about the prospects for tackling the budget deficit and said that there was ‘no risk’ the US will lose its AAA rating. Earnings optimism also helped lifted stocks, this time from Johnson & Johnson. After the bell, , Juniper Networks and Yahoo! reported results that bet consensus estimates while Intel raises its 2Q forecasts. Meanwhile, IBM reported 1Q services signing fell 14% yoy. |
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 23:20
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Strategy/Election: Citi views election as a vote on Singapore’s long-term growth plans. Note that growing concerns over the social ramifications of the widening income gap may moderate future growth rates. Like big cap stocks that are mid-to-late economic cycle plays….. key picks include KepCorp as a proxy for rising demand for replacement rigs DBS Bank as a representative of banks here that feature a strong equity base and have diversified their earnings base and GLP and SIA on attractive valuations. See value in real estate developers, like WingTai, which is near bottom end of trading range. Add that strong vote in elections could be strong catalyst for real estate developer stocks given implications of continued immigration to fuel growth. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Strategy/Election: UOB Kay Hian examines potential key beneficiaries for upcoming election. Note that the PAP ‘manifestos’ key thrusts include: 1) Widen the range of universities, polytechnics and ITE programmes, 2) Invest S$2.5b in continuous education and training, 3) More new, high-quality and affordable HDB homes, 4) Invest $60b to double Singapore’s MRT networks, and 5) Build new hospitals and partner employers to help elder citizens stay employed. Identifies key election potential beneficiaries as Raffles Medical (TP $2.81), Comfort Delgro (TP $1.80), SMRT (TP $1.95), BBR Holdings, Chip Eng Seng and Raffles Edu. However over all, house see limited impact from upcoming election and view any major market weakness on external uncertainties as buying opportunity. Top picks for FY11 are OCBC, OUE, StarHub, Ezion, Keppel Corp, A-REIT and CDLH-T |
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 23:17
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Asia’s chip makers rise on IntelAsia’s chip makers rise on Intel results, broad markets follow across the region Asian shares are up Wednesday, as technology companies got a lift from Strong earnings by Intel and IBM while investors cheered a jump in US housing starts. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 0.9% after Intel issued an upbeat guidance for Quarterly sales. Chip makers surged across the board with Samsung Electronics up 3.3% and Hynix Semiconductor is up 4.12% in Seoul. Samsung shares were boosted by news that it would sell its hard-disk drive business to Seagate Technology. In Japan, Toshiba advanced 2.0% and Elpida Memory rose 2.1%. But among other technology companies, Taiwan’s Acer bucked the trend, falling 5.7% to its lowest mark in over 2 yrs. The company reported a 10% decline in Q-2 shipments Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 average was up 1.4% as Sony advanced 1% after Sony Ericsson, its phonemaker joint venture with the Swedish company, said supply chain problems in Japan were stabilising. Machinery makers Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries gained 2.3% and 1.6%, respectively, on a Nikkei report that the companies were ramping up production of industrial power generators. South Korea’s Kospi Composite index rose 1.5%, led by chip makers and steel makers. Posco jumped 2.7% on expectations that it would soon announce plans to raise steel prices. Such expectations drove Hyundai Steel up 2.5% and Dongkuk Steel Mill up 2.7% LG Chem climbed 6% after announcing a 27% jump in Q-1 net profit. In Sydney, resource stocks gained ground on higher metal prices. BHP Billiton was up 1% and Rio Tinto advanced 1.1%, pushing Australia’s S& P/ASX 200 0.7% higher. China’s Shanghai Composite index tacked on 0.2%, led by commodities shares. Jiangxi Copper was up 1% and PetroChina added 0.5% on higher Crude Oil prices. China Shenhua Energy the country’s largest coal producer, rose 1.2%. |
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 21:39
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Wall St set to open higher, powered by profits
The New York Stock Exchange building
  NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were poised for a strong open on Wednesday after a raft of solid earnings and outlooks bolstered optimism about the economic recovery.   Intel Corp jumped 6.7 percent to $21.18 in premarket trade after forecasting quarterly revenues well above Wall Street's estimates, easing fears the world's largest chipmaker is struggling as growth in personal computer sales slows.   Yahoo Inc advanced 4.1 percent to $16.78 after the Internet company said an important partnership with Microsoft Corp is taking longer than expected to pay off, but the company posted quarterly earnings that topped Wall Street targets.   " It seemed like the earnings season got off to a bit of a shaky start, but now companies are coming through with very strong results, by and large," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Asset Management in Bedford Hills, New York.   " This really shows that corporations are delivering strong results and benefiting from the slow but steady economic improvement."   IBM shed 0.9 percent to $163.90 after reporting a decline in signings of new business at its global services division during the first quarter. However, its profit and revenue came in above analysts' projections.   Adding to the positive tone, Spain attracted solid demand at a bond sale on Wednesday, easing concerns it could be swept up by the debt contagion of some other euro zone members.   United Technologies Corp rose 3.2 percent to $85 after the diversified manufacturer posted a 16.9 percent rise in quarterly profit and raised its outlook for the year, boosted by strong demand for Carrier air conditioners.   AT& T slipped 0.2 percent to $30.25 after the Dow component reported first-quarter results and posted weak subscriber growth as it gave up exclusive U.S. rights to sell the Apple iPhone.   S& P 500 futures added 17.6 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures gained 145 points and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 30.5 points.   As gold shot above $1,500 an ounce for the first time ever, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold jumped 5.2 percent to $54.43 after the miner posted a 67 percent jump in first-quarter profit, beating Wall Street estimates.   Companies scheduled to report quarterly results later on Wednesday include Apple Inc and American Express Co.   Apple is expected to report quarterly results tempered by caution over how supply constraints may squeeze margins and restrain iPhone and iPad sales.   Economic indicators include March existing-home sales at 10 a.m..   In deal news, U.S. power company AES Corp said it would buy smaller rival DPL Inc for $3.5 billion in cash to expand in the Midwest by adding 500,000 retail customers in West Central Ohio.   DPL shares gained 8.5 percent to $29.94 and AES advanced 2.3 percent to $12.75 in premarket trade. |
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 21:16
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Why Saudi Arabia Should Be Worried About Iran's Next MoveIran warned Saudi Arabia on Monday of the dire consequences of Riyadh’s intervention in Bahrain.   Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s adviser for military affairs, Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, told journalists, “The presence and attitude of Saudi Arabia (in Bahrain) sets an incorrect precedence for similar future events, and Saudi Arabia should consider this fact that one day the very same event may recur in Saudi Arabia itself and Saudi Arabia may come under invasion for the very same excuse.” A post-U.S. Iraq renders the Saudi kingdom vulnerable to a future Iranian invasion. The remarks made by Safavi, who formerly served as commander of Iran’s elite military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (1997-2007), constitute the first time Tehran has issued such a direct warning. The Saudis and the Iranians have had tense relations since the founding of the Islamic republic in 1979 and increasingly so since the U.S. invasion of Iraq toppled the Baathist regime, which led to a Shiite-dominated Iraqi state and the empowering of Iran. But never before has Iran issued a public statement about an invasion of the Saudi kingdom. So, why is the Persian Shiite state engaging in such threats now? The Saudi move to intervene in neighboring Bahrain, where popular unrest was largely waged by the Shiite majority, threatened to topple a Sunni monarchy. Well aware of the implications, the Saudis embarked on their first long-term, overseas military deployment, sending in 1,500 troops to help Bahraini forces crush the Shiite opposition. The Saudi move succeeded in quelling the unrest (for now at least), which placed Iran in a difficult position. Lacking the capability to physically aid their fellow Shia in the Persian Gulf, the Iranians were caught in an awkward situation. Iran had to do more than issue diplomatic statements and engineer protests against the Saudis and their allies. Warning the Saudis that they too could be invaded on the same pretext that they used to go into Bahrain is definitely an escalation on the part of the Iranians. Since Iran making good on its threat is unlikely to happen anytime soon (given that the United States would not stand by and allow Iran to attack Saudi Arabia), this can be argued as yet another hollow threat. A more nuanced examination of the situation, however, suggests that Tehran is not just simply engaging in bellicose rhetoric. Instead, Iran is trying to exploit Saudi fears. The Wahhabi kingdom fears instability (especially now when it is in the middle of a power transition at home and the region has been engulfed by popular turmoil). The clerical regime in Iran sees regional instability as a tool to advance its position in the Persian Gulf region. Riyadh can never be certain that Tehran won’t ever attack but Iran would have to overcome many logistical difficulties to make good on its threat. The Saudis are also not exactly comfortable with the idea of overt military alignment with the United States. The last time the Saudis entered into such a relationship with the Americans was during the 1991 Gulf War and it lead to the rise of al Qaeda. Put differently, any conflict involving Iran entails far more risks than rewards for the Saudis. Cognizant of the Saudi perceptions, the Iranian statement is designed as a signal to the Saudis that they should accept Iran as a player in the region or be prepared to deal with a very messy situation. The key problem for Saudi Arabia is that Tehran doesn’t have to actually resort to war to achieve its ends. But Riyadh’s efforts to counter Iran and its Arab Shiite allies are likely to create more problems for the Saudis because crackdowns are contributing to long-term instability in the region and causing agitation among the Shia, which Iran can use to its advantage. |
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 21:11
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China's Aggressive Tightening Policies Are Inspiring Businesses To Outflank The Regime![]() Image: Wikimedia Commons   Loan growth may be down, but company's are finding financing through other means, like trust loans, corporate debt, and off shore lending from Hong Kong. A few examples, from Yao:
And another market for off shore loans may be soon to open up, this time in Singapore.
However, looking back at the limited history of this data, we find an interesting pattern – during monetary policy tightening cycles, the share of bank lending retreats the most. In 2007, when the PBoC hiked the RRR nine times, that share declined by 18 percentage points. In 2010, the share dropped by 12.5 percentage points, while total financing increased further from the record level in 2009. So it seems that credit rationing and quantitative tools are losing their magic. And what is more unnerving for the PBoC is that the harder it tries, the faster it loses its grip. The solution, according to Yao, is yuan appreciation. The PBoC is slowly increasing its value, and expectations are growing that their could be a one-off increase. |
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 21:06
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Politics In 60 Seconds: What You Need To Know Right NowGood morning!  Here's what you need to know: 1.  A Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that 78  percent of Americans oppose cutting spending on Medicare as a way to chip away at the debt. On Medicaid — the government insurance program for the poor — 69 percent of Americans disapprove of cuts. 2. Congressional Republicans and Democrats alike are aligned in their opposition to President Obama's proposed advisory oversight board for Medicare, known as IPAB. Republicans and some Democrats would like to eliminate IPAB altogether. 3.  President Obama yesterday criticized Standard & Poors' decision to lower the US credit rating outlook, arguing that the US not in danger of a downgrade and that a deficit reduction deal in Congress is within reach. Treasury Secretary Geithner, meanwhile, appeared all over television yesterday, talking up US creditworthiness. 4.  The FT reports on how two major US debt holders reacted to the S& P downgrade:  " While Japan played down concerns about US creditworthiness after the decision, China’s foreign ministry on Tuesday urged Washington to protect investors in its debt. “We hope the US government will take responsible policies and measures to safeguard investors’ interests,” it said." 5. Martin Wolf describes the global economy as “unsteady, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable."   The avalanche of debt all across the world makes policy-making fiendishly difficult. 6. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin to gradually tighten monetary policy once QE2 runs out at the end of June.  But the path to monetary " normality" is tricky and fraught with peril for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and for policy-makers generally. 7.  Greece announced yesterday that it would appoint international advisers to kick-start its ambitious €50bn ($72bn) privatization programme. The country’s most powerful trade union pledged to disrupt the plan. 8. France’s largest trade union warned European governments that they risk labor unrest if they push ahead with the French-German “pact for the euro” adopted by eurozone members last month. 9. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is simultaneously promising political reforms and violently cracking down on public protests.  Anger towards the Assad regime continues to build. 10.  The war in Libya continues to go badly for the NATO-backed rebels.  The United Kingdom said yesterday it would send " about a dozen" senior military officers to assist the rebel military, which is divided and inept. Meanwhile, Libya's Foreign Minister proposed " free and fair" elections in six months. 11. Political items:  Jeb Bush crushes President Obama (57%-38%) in a hypothetical 2012 match-up in Florida.  US Ambassador to China John Huntsman has hired a group of McCain campaign consultants to help him plan a possible run for the 2012 GOP nomination.  They've give him the McCain campaign plan.  The Wall Street Journal reports that the presidential campaign of Donald Trump is picking up steam and being taken seriously.  Business Insider disagrees. |
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 21:02
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10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell![]() Image: AP
 
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 20:56
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S.Korea won at 31-mth high as KOSPI soars to a record
* Smoothing operations seen at 1,083 per dlr, countering exporter deals
  * Won seen gaining further ground on weakened intervention -trader   * Bond yields up, curves flatten   SEOUL, April 20 (Reuters) - The South Korean won bounced against the dollar on Wednesday, powered by the Seoul stock market's rally to a lifetime high after upbeat U.S. and European corporate results fueled interest in riskier, higher-yielding assets.   The local authorities were spotted conducting smoothing operations around 1,083 per dollar to curb the advance in the won , which raced back to a 31-month high to become one of top performing emerging Asian currencies this year.   " The dividend payment season has wound up, and the authorities may have little excuse to defend the exchange rate in view of inflationary pressures," said a local bank dealer.   " It seems like corrective trade wrapped up yesterday and downward pressure (on the dollar) is picking up."   The won leapt to 1,082.0 per dollar at one point, its highest since early September 2008. It closed at 1,082.2.   It has gained 4.9 percent on the year to date amid market expectations that the government might let the local currency rise to rein in inflation.   After the market close, the finance ministry said the government planned to impose a levy of up to 0.2 percent on foreign debt owed by banks from August, as part of measures aimed at averting the repeat of a currency crisis. [ID:nL3E7FK0WM]   Treasury bond prices weakened as foreign investors switched into Asian stock markets.   Front-end yields rose more than those in longer maturities on expectations inflationary pressures might soften towards the end of this year.   The yield on 3-year treasury bonds added 3 basis points to 3.74 percent, and the 10-year treasury yield edged up one basis point to 4.45 percent.   Bank of Korea Governor Kim Choong-soo said at a parliamentary testimony that annual consumer inflation would likely ease to 4.0 percent in the current quarter and 3.9 percent in the July-September period, from the first quarter's 4.5 percent. [ID:nL3E7FK02L]   Foreign investors cashed in a net 741 billion won in treasury futures, while picking up a net 108 billion won on the Seoul bourse, capping a six-day selling run.   0723 GMT Prev close Dollar/won 1,082.2 1,091.5 Yen/won 13.0518/594 13.1305 *KTB futures 103.04 103.12 5-yr treasury bonds 4.08 pct 4.05 pct 3-yr treasury bonds 3.74 pct 3.71 pct Average O/N call rate 2.98 pct 2.80 pct ^6-mth KORIBOR 3.54 pct 3.54 pct KOSPI 2,169.91 2,122.68 * Front-month futures on three-year treasury bonds ^ Korea interbank offered rate (Reporting by Kim Yeonhee and Lee Soo-jung Editing by Jonathan Hopfner) |
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krisluke
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20-Apr-2011 20:55
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Hong Kong stocks close up 1.6 percent
HONG KONG, April 20 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares rebounded on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak as investors, encouraged by corporate earnings in the United States, chased laggards, with energy issues outperforming the broader market.
  The benchmark Hang Seng Index closed up 1.6 percent at 23,896.1, underperforming the energy sub-index , which gained 2.3 percent. The China Enterprises Index traded up 1.85 percent to 13,492.38 on the day.   China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.27 percent to 3,007.04 points, after shedding 1.9 percent on Tuesday in its biggest percentage fall in nearly 2 months.     HIGHLIGHTS   * Turnover remained low, hitting HK$72.5 billion, but increased marginally for the first time in three sessions.   * Tencent Holdings Ltd led gains on the benchmark, closing up 7.1 percent in volume two times its 30-day average, tracking Chinese rival, Nasdaq-listed Sina Corp's all-time high on Tuesday, as bullishness on China's internet sector spilled over after the country's largest social network, Renren, filed for a U.S. initial public offering to raise up to $573.1 million.   * Before Wednesday's jump, Tencent had fallen more than 10 percent from its 2011 peak in early March, pushing its valuation below historic levels. According to Thomson Reuters Starmine, Tencent shares trade at a 10 percent discount to their median forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple.   * The Hang Seng energy sub-index outperformed the benchmark Hang Seng Index . Analysts said they saw bargain-hunting after the market underperformed in the last few sessions, with funds chasing stocks that have been lagging, especially sectors seen favoured by the Chinese government.   * Macau casino operators Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd and Wynn Macau Ltd , a unit of casino magnate Steve Wynn's Wynn Resorts Ltd , jumped on Wednesday after strong earnings results showed unflagging growth in the world's largest gaming market. Wynn Macau was up 1.1 percent after posting a 47 percent rise for revenue in the first three months of the year. Galaxy Entertainment, about 20 percent owned by European private equity firm Permira , traded up 6 percent after posting a 71 percent rise in first-quarter EBIDTA.[ID: nL3E7FK0E6]     DAY AHEAD:   * Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (CHALCO) is due to announce its Q1 results on Thursday. (Reporting by Clement Tan Editing by Chris Lewis) |
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krisluke
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19-Apr-2011 22:43
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Japan confident in US debt, China demands protection
* China demands U.S. protects investors after S& P warning
  * Japanese officials voice confidence in US debt   * China, Japan are largest foreign holders of Treasuries   * Indian c.bank sources see little alternative to Treasuries   (Releads with Chinese reaction, ECB's Bini Smaghi)   By Kevin Yao and Tetsushi Kajimoto   BEIJING/TOKYO, April 19 (Reuters) - China told Washington on Tuesday to protect investors in its debt after Standard & Poor's threatened to lower its credit rating on the United States, while Japan voiced confidence in U.S. Treasuries.   S& P slapped a negative outlook on the United States' top-notch AAA credit rating on Monday and said there was at least a one-in-three chance it could cut it eventually unless warring politicians found a way to slash a yawning budget deficit within two years.   If investors start demanding higher returns for holding riskier U.S. debt, the rise in bond yields could erode the value of Treasuries held in currency reserves and push borrowing costs up, putting the global economic recovery in jeopardy.   " We hope the U.S. government will take responsible policies and measures to safeguard investors' interests," the Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement.   China's foreign exchange reserves, the world's biggest, rose by nearly $200 billion in the first quarter to $3.05 trillion. About two-thirds are estimated to be invested in dollars.   Japan's reserves stood at $1.12 trillion at the end of March, the bulk of which is thought to be in Treasuries, making it the second largest foreign holder of U.S. sovereign debt.   As such, it has a vital interest in maintaining their value.   " The United States is tackling fiscal issues in various ways, so I still think U.S. Treasuries are basically an attractive product for us," Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda told reporters after a cabinet meeting.   Treasury prices did indeed prove resilient on Tuesday and world stocks bounced back.   In India, sources with direct knowledge of the matter said the central bank was not considering diversifying due to a lack of credible alternatives to U.S. debt.   The Reserve Bank of India keeps more than 60 percent of its offshore holdings in Treasuries and around 30 percent in euros.   " After S& P's threat of downgrade, the U.S. debt has in fact rallied. Global markets are thinking of buying back U.S. debt now," one of the central bank sources said. " Where is the alternative to diversify? European and Japanese debt are worse."   Other large holders of U.S. debt include the United Kingdom, oil exporting nations in the Middle East, Brazil, Hong Kong, Russia, Taiwan and Canada.     DEBT PILE   Beijing has repeatedly warned that loose U.S. monetary policy threatens the dollar, but it has continued to accumulate dollar assets at the same time, adding about $260 billion of Treasury securities last year, according to U.S. data.   Policymakers in Europe, where interest rates are rising and debt is being cut, have also voiced concern.   European Central Bank official Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi said S& P's warning showed the United States must move quickly towards more restrictive economic and monetary policy now its recovery is gaining strength.   " If a shift is delayed, problems pile up and imbalances grow," Bini-Smaghi told Italy's Radio 24, calling the S& P move " a warning" .   So monstrous have China's holdings become that it is stoking inflation in the country while making it almost a captive investor in Treasuries, the only market large and liquid enough to absorb such mountains of cash.   Li Jie, the head of the China Foreign Exchange Reserve Research Center, an academic institute with the Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing, said S& P's warning would ring alarm bells for Beijing and may drive it to cut the share of Treasuries in its holdings.   " It's widely believed that U.S. Treasuries make up about 70 percent in China's foreign exchange reserves, but China may cut the proportion to 50 percent or less in the coming decade," Li said.   Achieving such a shift without spooking the market and driving down Treasury prices would be no small feat, however.   The danger of a U.S. downgrade could also draw unwanted attention to Japan's huge debt burden, which is likely to grow as the government secures funding to rebuild after last month's devastating earthquake and tsunami.   Japan is set to compile an extra budget worth about 4 trillion yen ($48.4 billion) and that is likely to be the first of several spending packages. Japan's public debt is already twice the size of its $5 trillion economy.   Japan's third-largest private life insurer, Meiji Yasuda Life also expressed confidence in U.S. Treasuries.   " U.S. President Obama is saying he is serious about fiscal reform. U.S. Treasuries are the world's largest bond market and our confidence is unshaken," Yasuharu Takamatsu, Meiji Yasuda's director of investments, told a news conference.     PUSH TO ACT?   Some investors hoped S& P's threat may put pressure on the White House and the U.S. Congress to reach a compromise on measures on deficit reduction.   The White House last week announced plans to cut $4 trillion from the deficit over the next 12 years, mostly through spending cuts and tax hikes on the rich. Congressional Republicans want deeper spending cuts and no tax increases.   " The gap between the two sides seems immense but this warning of a rating downgrade might help them reach an agreement," said Arihiro Nagata, manager of foreign bond trading at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.   That was a sentiment echoed by a source familiar with managing South Korea's foreign exchange reserves, which currently top $291 billion.   " I think this is a good development in a sense that this will eventually help spur efforts in the United States to improve its fiscal health," said the source. (Additional reporting by Suvashree Dey Choudhury in Mumbai and Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo Writing by Wayne Cole and Alex Richardson Editing by Mike Peacock) |
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krisluke
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18-Apr-2011 22:24
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S& P: There's Still A Huge Risk Of More Bailouts, More Money For Fannie And Freddie, And A Collapsing Student Loan Market![]() Image: Sakeeb via flickr One of the more interesting paragraphs from S& P's downgrade of the US debt outlook focuses on the financial sector:   Additional fiscal risks we see for the U.S. include the potential for further extraordinary official assistance to large players in the U.S. financial or other sectors, along with outlays related to various federal credit programs. We estimate that it could cost the U.S. government as much as 3.5% of GDP to appropriately capitalize and relaunch Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two financial institutions now under federal control, in addition to the 1% of GDP already invested (see " U.S. Government Cost To Resolve And Relaunch Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Could Approach $700 Billion," Nov. 4, 2010, RatingsDirect). The potential for losses on federal direct and guaranteed loans (such as student loans) is another material fiscal risk, in our view. Most importantly, we believe the risks from the U.S. financial sector are higher than we considered them to be before 2008, as our downward revisions of our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) on the U.S. to Group 3 from Group 2 in December 2009 and to Group 2 from Group 1 in December 2008 reflect (see " Banking Industry Country Risk Assessments," March 8, 2011, and " Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: United States of America," Feb. 1, 2010, both on RatingsDirect). In line with these views, we now estimate the maximum aggregate, up-front fiscal cost to the U.S. government of resolving potential financial sector asset impairment in a stress scenario at 34% of GDP compared with our estimate of 26% in 2007. |
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