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krisluke
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08-Oct-2011 19:43
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BOJ can do nothing about it becos USA is in a mess. IF BOJ act swiftly on interest rate issues. Then USA will be in sshit mess ![]() |
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krisluke
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08-Oct-2011 19:40
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Reversing weakness extended earlier in week, commodities generally gained on weekly basis as European leaders were about to formulate plans to recapitalize the banking system. Moreover, non-standard easing measures were announced by the ECB and the BOE in the hope of stimulating recovery. Positive surprises on the dataflow also helped boost market sentiment. However, bullishness will likely be temporary unless policymakers find ways to strengthen fiscal reform and improve the economy. Earlier in the week, financial markets got hammered as Greek budget deficit, expected to fall to 6.8% in 2012 of GDP from 8.5% this year, will miss the target of 6.5% agreed previously. The market concerned that Greece might not be able to tap the 6th tranche of funding from the EU/ECB/IMF. News that EU leaders were divided regarding expansion and leverage of the EFSF damped sentiment further. However, investors were thrilled after policymakers signaled the possibility of recapitalization. The IMF stated that European finance leaders are 'all working together on a plan to bring more capital into the banking system'. The world lender also suggested to create an SPV and buy Spanish and Italian bonds. Regarding the issue, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that recapitalization of some European banks is 'justified' and 'Germany is prepared to move to recapitalization. We need to have criteria, and to be prepared to move a decision quickly and if we need to discuss on this at the summit then we will'. Four central banks held meeting last week with both the ECB and the BOE announced liquidity measures while the BOJ and the RBA stood on the sideline. The BOE announced to increase the size of the asset purchase program by +75B pound to 275B pound as world economic growth deteriorated dramatically. The program will take 4 months to complete. According to the accompanying statement, 'vulnerabilities associated with the indebtedness of some euro-area sovereigns and banks have resulted in severe strains in bank funding markets and financial markets more generally. These tensions in the world economy threaten the UK recovery'. The BOE had been in a dilemma on whether to tighten or to ease as the UK's economy has been torn between dismal growth and high inflation. Reactivation of bond purchases was based on the belief that inflation will undershoot the 2% target in the medium-term due to 'the deterioration in the outlook'. The ECB announced a series of measures to inject liquidity to the market. Apart from LTROs and MROs at fixed rates and full allotments, the central bank re-launched the new covered bond purchase program (CBPP2) worth of 40B euro. The program, with capacity in the primary and secondary markets by means of direct purchases, is expected to start in November 2011 and be fully implemented by the end of October 2012. The central bank worried about 'intensified downside risks' in the economic outlook. US non-farm payrolls unexpectedly increased +103K in September, following an upwardly revised +57K a month ago. The unemployment rate stayed at 9.1%. In the coming week, the FOMC minutes will unveil details about policymakers' views on the economic outlook and their stance on operation twist. ![]() Crude Oil: Oil gained as led by the +4.77% increase in WTI crude oil price. Brent crude also added +3.01% during the week. Downside risks remained in the short-term for oil amid intensifying uncertainty in the global economic outlook. Sharp selloff cannot be ruled out should economic data disappoint and more negative news come debt-ridden European countries. Concerning the fundamentals, the oil market remains resilient. Global oil demand is expected to growth 1.4-1.5% in each of 2011 and 2012. Non-OPEC supplies are restrained while the OPEC is unable to fully substitute the loss of Libyan output. Tensions in Libya eased but it will probably take some time for its oil production to return to pre-crisis levels. WTI-Brent crude spread narrowed steadily after widening to a record level of 26/27 in early September. Despite this, the gap remained above 20. The situation will likely continue over the coming 2 years until additional infrastructure is in place to alleviate the excess supply condition at the terminal of Cushing, Oklahoma. ![]() US gas prices plunged -5.05% last week. The DOE/EIA reported that gas storage rose +97 bcf to 3409 bcf in the week ended September 30. Stocks were 78 bcf less than the same period last year and 28 bcf, or +0.8%, above the 5-year average of 3381 bcf. Separately, Baker Hughes reported that the number of gas rigs rose +12 units in 935 in the week ended October 7. Oil rigs added +10 units to 1070 and miscellaneous rigs were flat at 7 units, sending the total number of rigs to 2012 units. Directionally oriented combined oil, gas, and miscellaneous rigs increased +8 units to 246 while horizontal rigs climbed +13 units to 1148 and vertical soared +1 unit to 618 during the week. ![]() ![]() Precious Metal: Gold traded choppily above 1600 last week. Finishing the week as +0.87%, the yellow metal indeed recorded the first positive reading in 5 weeks. Recent correction after surging to a record high of 1923.7 has been driven by a confluence of factors including CME' increase in margin requirements, profit-taking after the relentless rally since the beginning of the year and liquidation of long positions to cover losses in other markets. Despite the selloff, holdings in ETF and bullion sales remained firm. The chart below shows that, despite outflow over the past few weeks, gold holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest ETF, stayed at record level. Meanwhile, the US Mint reported that gold sales in September were 91K oz, down from 112K oz in August but well-above levels in June and July. In the first week of October, gold sales reached 23.5K, signaling the possibility of exceeding September's figure. We retain our view the gold's long-term is not yet ended. Instead, it's prone to make new highs after the correction as long as uncertainties in macroeconomic outlook persist. Economic deterioration in both sides of the Atlantic triggered central banks to step up monetary easing and to keep interest rates at exceptionally levels. Impacts of fiscal austerity measures are going to reflect on declining economic indicators. Moreover, it takes a long way for resolving the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. These issues will continue to dampen market sentiment and increase investors' demand for safe-haven assets. ![]() PGM prices slumped, failing to share the optimism driven by recapitalization plan of European banks and strong US payroll data, with platinum and palladium losing -2.58% and -4.89% respectively. Having declined for 5 consecutive weeks, both metals have now reached the lowest levels in more than a year. We believe current prices are not justified if fundamentals are taken in account. Surge in power prices and steadily rising labor expenses have substantially increase production costs for miners in recent year. At current price levels, it's hard for them to survive without making losses. If the situation continues, it's reasonable to expect delay and cancellation of projects to come. That is, the medium-term shortfall in output will reverse the price decline. |
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krisluke
Supreme |
08-Oct-2011 19:37
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Gold Skin Care
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tanglinboy
Elite |
08-Oct-2011 18:40
![]() Yells: "hello!" |
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It will be red again next week. | ||||
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krisluke
Supreme |
08-Oct-2011 14:28
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How is SSE on monday... ... Will HSI follow DJ and " scrumble " to profit taking since a positive 9.99% surge recently ? ?????? |
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krisluke
Supreme |
08-Oct-2011 14:26
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Bull fighting is a traditional spectacle in portugal, france, spain etc... Do notice the bulls shown in the photograh were not in black  ![]() |
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krisluke
Supreme |
08-Oct-2011 14:20
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Wall St fends off bear to end higher for week
  * Wall St " can't escape" European debt crisis
  * Stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs data bolsters stocks   * S& P 500 resistance seen at 1,180   * Dow down 0.2 pct, S& P off 0.8 pct, Nasdaq off 1.1 pct (Updates to close)   China famous panda,  having a nice and relaxing rest  ![]() By Caroline Valetkevitch   NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - After nearly falling into bear-market territory, U.S. stocks on Friday finished the week higher, building gains on encouraging jobs data and hopes that Europe is dealing with its debt crisis.   Wall Street's wild week began with cascading losses that brought stocks to their worst levels in 13 months. After rebounding Tuesday, the S& P 500 rose about 5 percent from its worst levels as short-sellers rushed to cover losses on new optimism about Europe. The benchmark index ended with gains of 2.1 percent for the week.   Downgrades of Spain's and Italy's credit ratings on Friday brought in sellers, causing stocks to close lower and highlighting how markets are pushed and pulled by headlines from Europe.   " The employment data was viewed as being relatively good, but this issue in Europe keeps rearing its head. We just can't seem to escape Europe's debt crisis," said Thomas Villalta, portfolio manager for Jones Villalta Asset Management in Austin, Texas.   U.S. banks had another volatile week, falling sharply on Friday after rising earlier in the week. The KBW bank index fell 4.3 percent on Friday, while Morgan Stanley dropped 6.2 percent to $14.22 and shares of Bank of America tumbled 6.1 percent to $5.90.   The downgrades by Fitch came prior to a European summit on Sunday that is aimed at shoring up the region's financial sector.   From a technical perspective, the S& P 500 has been caught in a range the past few months, deteriorating into lower lows. The index's wide range is about 1,100 to 1,250. Analysts see the next important resistance level near 1,180.   The Dow Jones industrial average was down 20.21 points, or 0.18 percent, at 11,103.12. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 9.51 points, or 0.82 percent, at 1,155.46. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 27.47 points, or 1.10 percent, at 2,479.35.   For the week, the Dow rose 1.7 percent, the S& P 500 gained 2.1 percent and the Nasdaq was up 2.7 percent.   European leaders this week showed more determination to fix problem banks, with the European Central Bank offering more help to struggling banks through the purchase of covered bonds and with a renewed offer of longer-term loans to ward off a new credit crunch.   Still, Germany and France were split before crucial summit talks on Sunday about ways to strengthen European banks and fight financial market contagion to prepare for a possible Greek default, diplomats said Friday.   Worries about the euro zone debt crisis have hit Wall Street hard in recent months, along with concern about stalling economic growth in the United States and China.   Helping the U.S. jobs picture Friday, the U.S. Labor Department said on Friday employers last month added more jobs than analysts had expected. Nonfarm payrolls data for July and August also were revised upward.   While the U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 9.1 percent, the government's payrolls report supported other data that have lessened fears the U.S. economy was heading into another recession.   Pressuring the Nasdaq, shares of research company Illumina dropped 32 percent to $27.18.   About 8.76 billion shares were traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq for the day, above the year's daily average so far of 8.03 billion.   Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a ratio of about 11 to 4, while on the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers by nearly 10 to 3. (Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch Editing by Kenneth Barry) |
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krisluke
Supreme |
08-Oct-2011 14:15
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Wall Street CEOs may be in Volcker rule crosshairs
* Banks do not want CEO legally liable for Volcker rule
  * Certification could look similar to Sarbanes-Oxley   * Supporters say it would improve accountability   By Dave Clarke   WASHINGTON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - U.S. regulators are considering holding Wall Street chief executives legally liable if they allow certain types of proprietary trading on their watch.   Regulators due to reveal the Volcker rule proposal next week are expected to ask whether CEOs should have to certify, or " attest," that their bank has put in place the proper systems to make sure no proprietary trading is taking place.   The idea is that holding CEOs personally accountable will add a strong deterrent effect to the Volcker rule.   The rule, called for in last year's Dodd-Frank financial oversight law, bans banks from trading for their own profit in securities, derivatives and some other financial instruments.   The bank industry is already balking at the legal burden and compliance headache that would come with a CEO certification.   " The whole Volcker rule proposal envisions having an army of nannies overlooking the work of the people who actually work with customers," said Wayne Abernathy, a senior official with the American Bankers Association. " How much more does an attestation bring that that doesn't bring?"   A CEO certification approach may be similar to 2002's Sarbanes-Oxley law.   That law, put in place after major accounting scandals at Enron and Worldcom, has the power to send executives to prison and make them pay multimillion-dollar fines for submitting false certifications on corporate disclosures.   It is unclear if regulators will seek CEO imprisonment or hefty fines as potential penalties for violating the Volcker rule. Whatever regulators might put in place, fines would be a far more likely punishment if any are ever doled out, banking lawyers said.   Supporters of the proposal contend it would force the CEO to be more involved and accountable.   " Placing personal and legal responsibility directly with a corporation's top executive is key to ensuring financial firms comply with the Volcker Rule and stop engaging in the risky activities that led to billion-dollar taxpayer bailouts," Sen. Carl Levin said in a statement to Reuters.   The crackdown on proprietary trading, which has some exemptions, is known as the Volcker rule after former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, who championed the reform.   The rule will mostly impact large banks including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup.   Supporters contend that large banks whose customers receive deposit insurance from the government should not be engaging in risky trading activities that could put these deposits in jeopardy.   Despite banks' concerns, regulators may go easier on the issue of CEOs' legal liability than the industry's worst fears.   In January the Financial Stability Oversight Council, the panel of regulators headed by the Treasury Department, released recommendations for enforcing the Volcker rule.   Included in this list was requiring a CEO to certify their compliance efforts' " effectiveness."   A draft of the rule to be considered next week by regulators does not explicitly call for a CEO certification and instead solicits feedback on whether it should be in a final rule.   The draft, first posted online by the American Banker on Wednesday, could be changed before the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp meeting on Tuesday and the Securities and Exchange Commission meetings on Wednesday on the proposal.   Banking lawyers say the certification could work similarly to Sarbanes-Oxley.   " The idea is they want to have a human being on the line saying it is true," said Bradley Sabel, a partner with Shearman and Sterling law firm.   But even some critics of the banking industry who argue the government has not done enough to respond to the 2007-2009 financial crisis question whether upping a CEO's legal responsibility will make much of a difference.   " I count myself among those who would like some CEOs' heads on a stick but I don't think this is the right way to go about it," said Cornelius Hurley, director of Boston University's Morin Center for Banking and Financial Law. " At the end of the day he is going to rely on the representations of his advisers anyway and all this does is make sure he doesn't sleep at night." (Reporting by Dave Clarke, Editing by Matthew Lewis |
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krisluke
Supreme |
08-Oct-2011 14:13
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U.S. stocks, euro slip after euro-zone downgrades
![]() Global Markets
  * Wall St " can't escape" European debt crisis   * Stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs data bolsters stocks   * Fitch downgrades credit ratings of Spain and Italy   * Merkel, Sarkozy to discuss euro-zone crisis on Sunday (Updates to New York close)   By Walter Brandimarte   NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday, but European and Asian equities markets mostly finished higher, after several days of gains supported by assurances that European banks would be recapitalized to help deal with a potential debt default by Greece.   After falling on Monday to the worst levels in 13 months, the three major U.S. stock indexes finished Friday's session with gains for the week -- helped by encouraging U.S. jobs data, which prompted some buying late in the day. But those gains quickly vanished as investors switched focus near the close to focus on downgrades of the credit ratings of Spain and Italy. ![]()   " The employment data was viewed as being relatively good, but this issue in Europe keeps rearing its head. We just can't seem to escape Europe's debt crisis," said Thomas Villalta, portfolio manager for Jones Villalta Asset Management in Austin, Texas.   The Dow Jones industrial average ended Friday down just 20.21 points, or 0.18 percent, at 11,103.12. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 9.51 points, or 0.82 percent, at 1,155.46. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 27.47 points, or 1.10 percent, at 2,479.35.   For the week, though, the Dow gained 1.7 percent, the S& P 500 rose 2.1 percent and the Nasdaq climbed 2.7 percent.   Helping the U.S. jobs picture, the U.S. Labor Department said on Friday that employers added more jobs than analysts expected last month. Non-farm payrolls data for July and August also were revised upward.   While the U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 9.1 percent, the government report supported other data that have eased fears the U.S. economy was heading into another recession.   European shares rose to a five-week closing high, with the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index of top shares up 0.7 percent at 947.63 -- up 2.6 percent for the week.   This week, European leaders showed more determination to fix problem banks, with the European Central Bank offering more help to struggling European banks through the purchase of covered bonds and with a renewed offer of longer-term loans to ward off a new credit crunch.   Worries about the euro zone's debt crisis have hit the market hard in recent months, along with concern about stalling economic growth in the United States and China.   World stocks measured by the MSCI All-Country World index ended the day up 0.46 percent at 285.68 and rose more than 1 percent for the week.   EURO SLIPS, BONDS SLIDE   The credit rating downgrades for Italy and Spain knocked the wind out of the euro on Friday. Traders said anxiety about Europe's economy and fragile banks will likely continue to hobble it in the weeks ahead.   The euro slipped 0.3 percent to $1.3388 but was up slightly for the week -- for the first time in three weeks.   The U.S. dollar ended up against the yen at 76.85 yen and up against the Swiss franc at 0.9258.   The euro may get a boost if euro-zone leaders can cobble together a plan on Sunday to recapitalize banks facing hefty losses.   But Brown Brothers Harriman strategist Mark McCormick said the prospect of a euro-zone recession and an interest-rate cut were gaining traction after the ECB this week unveiled new funding plans to stabilize banks and the euro-zone economy.   " That means the euro probably doesn't get much momentum even on good news," he said. " A euro-zone recession is still possible and the ECB probably cuts rates before 2012."   The prices of U.S. Treasury securities fell on Friday, as the better-than-expected job growth in September dampened the case for more Federal Reserve intervention.   " This is clearly a vote for the slow growth camp rather than the recession camp, so there is small upward pressure on rates," said Leslie Barbi, head of fixed income at RS Investments in New York, which manages $30 billion in bonds.   The benchmark 10-year note fell 23/32 points to yield 2.07 percent, up from 1.99 percent at Thursday's close. The 30-year Treasury bond tumbled 1-14/32 in price for a yield of 3.01 percent, up from 2.94 percent late Thursday.   For the week, benchmark U.S. yields saw their biggest rise in three months. Ten-year yields moved back above 2.0 percent, and 30-year yields returned to 3 percent from historic lows.   The U.S. bond market will be closed on Monday for the U.S. Columbus Day holiday.   In Europe, German government bond prices also fell on Friday though safe-haven bids could return next week if euro- zone leaders fail to produce the plans for banking recapitalizations that markets are anticipating. Ten-year German yields rose above 2.0 percent to hit 2.03 percent.   Crude oil prices edged higher on Friday after the encouraging U.S. jobs data suggested the United States may avoid a recession. U.S. November crude rose 39 cents to close at $82.98 a barrel, while Brent crude for November edged up 15 cents to settle at $105.88 a barrel.   Gold prices fell around 1.0 percent on Friday, as bullion investors raised cash to cover margin calls amid losses in the other markets. Gold still recorded its first weekly gain in a month, closing around $1,636.00 an ounce. (Additional reporting by Rodrigo Campos, Nick Olivari and Steven C Johnson in New York, Sebastian Tong in London Editing by Dan Grebler and Jan Paschal) |
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krisluke
Supreme |
07-Oct-2011 23:57
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China Aviation Oil: Anouced that it has entered into a JV with a Msian company, Centralised Terminals, to build and and operate an oil storage terminal for jet fuel, gasoil and fuel oil at JB. CAO will acquire a 26% equity stake in Langsat Terminal (Three), a SPV set up by CTSB. Based on total cost of investment of RM370m (or US$127m) and debt/equity ratio of 70:30 for the Terminal Three Facility, CAO's equity investment amount is about RM29m (or US$10m) over the next two yrs. Construction is expected to start this year and completed by 2013. |
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krisluke
Supreme |
07-Oct-2011 23:55
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Europe: Moody's takes rate action on Portuguese banks, involving downgrades by one or two levels of the senior debt and deposit ratings of 9 banks and downgrades by 1 or 2 steps of the standalone ratings of 6 of these banks. Moody's downgrades ratings of 12 UK financial institutions. Lloyds, Santander UK and Co-operative Bank were lowered by one rung while RBS and Nationwide Building Society had their rating cut by 2 levels. |
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krisluke
Supreme |
07-Oct-2011 23:36
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Seoul shares rise 2.9 pct refiners, shipyards rally
* Foreign investors, institutions buy
  * Samsung Elec sees modest gains after better-than-expected Q3 earnings estimates   * Refiners, shipyards continue rally   By Jungyoun Park   SEOUL, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Seoul shares rose for the second straight day on Friday led by sharp gains in oil refiners and shipyards like Hyundai Heavy Industries and S-Oil and as sentiment was buoyed further by euro zone plans to support European banks.   The gains were bolstered by foreign and institutional buying in Korean stocks, to the tune of 373 billion Korean won ($313.2 million) and 450 billion won respectively.   The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) ended up 2.89 percent to 1,759.77 points and managed to post two consecutive sessions of gains but it still lost 0.6 percent on the week.   " The market has regained some stability and recovery momentum now thanks to positive developments in Europe," said Cho Sung-joon, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities.   European Union moves to shore up ailing banks moved into higher gear on Thursday as U.S. President Barack Obama urged European leaders to act faster to tackle a sovereign debt crisis that threatens global economic recovery.   " But the market's direction is still very changeable and highly sensitive to the newsflow in Europen and U.S. It is too early to be wholly optimistic," Cho added.   Shares in Samsung Electronics held steady after the world's No.1 memory chip maker estimated its quarterly profit will exceed the most bullish market forecasts, indicating the booming smartphone business is emerging as its main profit engine.   Samsung's new Galaxy S2 smartphone " probably played a key role in boosting earnings and it will continue to do so basically unchallenged, until Apple unveils a better version of the iPhone," said Kyung Woo-hyun, a fund manager at Daishin Asset Management.   Samsung Electronics shares ended up 0.6 percent but underperformed against the benchmark index, which analysts blamed on the prospects for a tougher fourth quarter owing to weak prices for memory chips and flat screens.   Refiners and shipyards continued to rally as investor concerns about sectors more sensitive to economic cycles abated and investors sought bargains.   Hyundai Heavy Industries rallied 7.9 percent and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering jumped 8.8 percent.   SK Innovation , the country's No.1 crude oil refiner, rose 5.3 percent helped further by a strengthening of the won on Friday, which should reduce the costs of imported raw materials.   GS Holdings , the holding company of No.2 refiner GS Caltex, rose 4.9 percent.   But shares in Hana Financial Group trimmed earlier gains and underperformed peers amid lingering legal and regulatory uncertainties surrounding the firm's $4.1 billion deal to buy domestic rival Korea Exchange Bank (KEB) .   A Seoul court ruled on Thursday that U.S. buyout fund Lone Star, KEB's majority shareholder, was guilty of stock price manipulation, a decision which may lead regulators to order it to sell down its stake in KEB to 10 percent and removed a potential hurdle for its sale of the stake to Hana.   But some analysts said the verdict was not enough to fully eliminate uncertainty over Hana's KEB buy.   " If any party involved in the case appeals to the Supreme Court, and/or Lone Star appeals to the Constitutional Court, the final ruling may yet be some distance in the future," Standard Chartered said in a report.   " Moreover, it is, in our view, uncertain that the regulator would let Lone Star sell its entire stake to one party (i.e. Hana), allowing Lone Star to exit with a controlling premium."   Shares in Hana Financial edged up 2.5 percent, compared with the peers' 4 to 6 percent gains.   Brokerages spiked, lifted by rallies in stock markets.   Shares in Woori Investment & Securities jumped 9.3 percent and Samsung Securities gained 7.4 percent.   Defensive issues lagged. KT Corp , South Korea's No.2 mobile carrier, slipped 0.8 percent and food conglomerate CJ Corp fell 3 percent. ($1 = 1191.000 Korean Won) (Additional reporting by Hyunjoo Jin Editing by x) |
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krisluke
Supreme |
07-Oct-2011 23:35
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Five world markets themes in the coming week
LONDON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.
    1/ CAVEAT EMPTOR   Global and regional economic forecasts are being slashed by many investment banks and some are even talking about a hard landing in China, which has been a key engine for growth in the past years. Lower growth forecasts are in turn feeding through to estimates for company earnings. European and U.S. firms' earnings momentum has already suffered since the start of the year. Of course, many companies are sitting on large cash piles and some investors might view valuations as cheap. That could explain why investors have been willing to buy equities without waiting for European policymakers to come up with concrete measures to back up their rhetoric on the urgent need to tackle the debt crisis. Given the impact slowing economic activity will have on corporate profitability, euro zone politicians' ability to address the deepening debt crisis will be crucial if equity markets are to sustain bounces. > Emerging market money braced for China shock > Story on latest state of play in global markets > Global markets weekahead     2/ HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL   The root causes of the euro zone financial crisis require long-term solutions (e.g. euro bonds, closer economic governance, stricter oversight of national budgets), but there is an urgent need for fixes that can short-circuit the negative feedback loop between sovereigns and the financial sector. These include a way to increase the firepower of the EU's bailout fund which won't sacrifice the triple-A ratings of the few euro zone sovereigns that still have them, recapitalisation of the region's banks, and a private sector involvement in Greek debt restructuring that won't compound banks' problems. Domestic politics is hampering efforts to produce such solutions but policymakers have made it clear they are aware of the consequences of failure. Investors will therefore be on the lookout for any signs of co-ordinated efforts to shield the banking system from further fallout either before or at the G20 meeting of finance ministers in the coming week. > Politics drives EU schizophrenia on banks > What EU is doing to tackle banking problems     3/ PAIN AHEAD   Banks will stay in the forefront of investors' minds as the earnings season for U.S. and European banks kicks off in the coming week with JPMorgan. Deutsche's decision to ditch its 2011 profit target -- and the share price reaction -- may be a foretaste of the pain to come. Weakening economic activity and the sovereign debt crisis have been a difficult mix for the financial sector, and investors know U.S. banks' earnings could presage even worse numbers from European lenders, which may have to further write down their exposure to southern European sovereigns - possibly to the point of requiring recapitalisation. Dexia, which needed a bailout from French and Belgium authorities, may be the tip of an iceberg if euro zone policymaking sputters. > Preview of U.S. banks' Q3 results > Deutsche scraps 2011 profit target > Stories on European banks' capital concerns     4/ DOLLAR DEMAND   The European Central Bank's three-month dollar tender, which will be held in the coming week, will highlight the extent to which financial institutions have found it hard to access dollar funds but it is still unclear whether it will defuse the tensions still evident in money markets. The prospect of three such tenders has not stopped three-month cross-currency basis swaps from widening. In fact, hefty demand for the ECB dollar loans may trigger more widening in one- and five-year cross- currency basis swaps, which are not covered by the central bank tenders. The coming weeks will also show the extent to which the ECB's latest emergency measures are effective. In short-term euro markets, overnight Eonia rates are expected to fall below 1 percent after the ECB reintroduced one-year euro-denominated tenders to provide cash to banks struggling to access term funding. Traders are also pushing back bets of an ECB interest rate cut to December, with a 50-50 probability it may move as soon as November, after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet gave little indication that lower borrowing costs were imminent. > Factbox on ECB crisis measures > Reuters poll on ECB monetary policy outlook > Receding market expectations of ECB rate cut     5/ HOLDING THE LINE   The risks for the euro are seen skewed to the downside but timing is everything. Some banks are predicting a retest of its 2011 lows below $1.29 while USB reports asset managers are selling it for yen, keeping the cross close to 10-year lows. Still, the possibility of solo Japanese intervention is expected to increase if the yen appreciates past 100 per euro or its record high against the dollar. While dollar/yen implied vols are the cheapest in the G-10 space (unsurprising given the 76-78 range that has prevailed since early August), any nervousness about FX rhetoric in the run-up to the coming week's G20 meeting could see short-dated volatility pick up and will limit sharp yen gains. Speculation the SNB could raise the floor it has set for the euro/Swiss franc rate will also stop the single currency ceding too much ground on this cross for now. > Stories on latest Reuters FX poll {ID:nL5E7L42BD] > FX column on SNB and the Swiss franc ceiling > Latest story on moves in major FX rates (Compiled by Swaha Pattanaik editing by Stephen Nisbet)   |
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Oct-2011 10:12
![]() Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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  SINGAPORE, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Gold edged down on Thursday after trading in volatile $20 range in the previous session, but a steadier euro, gains in equities and hopes that Europe was moving to prop up the region's ailing banking sector could cushion the fall.FUNDAMENTALS * Spot gold eased $3.75 to $1,636.65 an ounce by 0018 GMT, having gained 1 percent on Wednesday on rallies in equities and commodities. * U.S. gold GCcv1 fell $4.2 an ounce to $1,637.4 an ounce. * The Nikkei stock average rose on Thursday, tracking commodity- and tech-led gains in the United States, after comments from Germany's chancellor raised hopes that Europe was moving towards a plan to contain its debt crisis. * Germany would help any of its banks with weak capital if they were not able to raise the money elsewhere, the country's chancellor Angela Merkel said on Wednesday. MARKET NEWS * The euro was unusually steady against the greenback in early Asia on Thursday as uncertainty gripped markets ahead of an ECB meeting which could see rates cut or the rebirth of long-term lending to banks. * U.S. crude oil steadied above $79 a barrel on Thursday as a surprise drawdown in U.S. crude inventories helped offset pressure from the euro debt crisis. * Most major commodity markets rallied on Wednesday, after days of steep declines put prices at levels investors viewed as buying opportunities once European leaders agreed to examine the banking sector and U.S. government data suggested demand was still on the rise. DATA/EVENTS 1100 Britain BoE rate decision Oct 2011 1145 EZ ECB rate decision Oct 2011 1230 U.S. initial jobless claims Weekly |
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krisluke
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05-Oct-2011 19:52
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Won, ringgit up as funds cover short positions
* Won rises as hedge funds take profits on long dlr bets
  * Ringgit up on macro, leveraged names   * Rupiah down on bond outflow fears BI sees outflows subsiding (Adds snippets, updates prices)   By Jongwoo Cheon   SINGAPORE, Oct 5 (Reuters) - The Malaysian ringgit and the South Korean won led overall gains in Asian peers on Wednesday as some offshore funds and interbank speculators covered short positions.   Investors also bought back Asian currencies on caution over more aggressive dollar-selling intervention by central banks, particularly after Korea warned of stepping up actions to protect the won on Tuesday.   The Malaysian central bank was spotted unloading greenbacks, dealers said.   The euro also rebounded to above 1.33 per dollar with charts suggesting it was ripe for a further corrective move higher.   Short-term players are looking to cover short positions in emerging Asian currencies more as some long- and medium-term investors took their recent falls as chances to buy them on dips.   Interbank dealers and short-term funds remain reluctant to make big bets on emerging Asian currencies, citing persisting worries about the euro zone's debt crisis.   " I am using USD/SGD and USD/KRW as proxies of risk sentiment, but they appear very well supported for now. I will sell USD/Asia only if USD/SGD falls below 1.3070 and USD/KRW slides below 1,190," said a European bank dealer in Singapore.   " Risk appetite is still dictated by Europe at this point."   In recent weeks, concern about Europe and a slackening global economy have led offshore institutional investors to chase the dollar against emerging Asian currencies in the non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) market to hedge against further falls in the regional units.   Last month, South Korea's foreign exchange reserves fell by the biggest amount since the 2008 global crisis while Taiwan's reserves also slid to the lowest since January as currency dealers spotted dollar-selling intervention.   The intervention caused investors to cover short-positions in emerging Asian currencies.     WON   Some hedge funds and exporters bought the won as the South Korean currency was seen having strong support around 1,200 per dollar, which Seoul's foreign exchange authorities were seen protecting.   Late on Tuesday, Vice Finance Minister Shin Je-yoon warned of a strong response against the won's slide on " herd behaviour," suggesting authorities could intensify dollar-selling intervention.   The won was the worst-performing emerging Asian currency in the third quarter, but it recently found some relief because of bond inflows from medium-and long-term bond investors.   On Wednesday, the South Korean one-year basis spread widened to the most since July 2009 at 314 basis points, but caution reigns among foreigners.   The spread is being widened primarily because of falling won cross-currency swap (CCS) rates, with the one-year cross currency swaps dropping to their lowest in more than a year on reduced demand for won funds.   Usually a wider basis spread means greater yield for foreign investors in rates, but the heavy sell-off in won assets has made them wary.   " CCS is seen falling further with negative external sentiment. It is not a good time for foreigners to use arbitrage opportunities, as there are not many overseas financial firms that can get dollar funds," said Yum Sang-hoon, a fixed-income analyst at SK Securities in Seoul.     PHILIPPINE PESO   The Philippine peso rose as interbank speculators cut dollar-long positions amid caution over the central bank's dollar-selling intervention and on gains in Asian peers.   " I'm looking to sell (dollar/peso) into the rallies for now as the market is still long a bit with people on a defensive mode," said a European bank dealer in Manila.   The central bank was spotted selling dollar on Tuesday, when the Philippine currency hit its weakest since Feb 1.     RINGGIT   The ringgit rose on demand from agent banks of the central banks and interbank speculators.   Macro funds and leveraged accounts also bought the Malaysian currency, while the central bank is expected to be keen on keeping the currency strong before the government's 2012 budget announcement on Friday.     RUPIAH   The Indonesian rupiah slid as investors keep worried about bond outflows, with bonds under further selling pressure.   On Tuesday, Indonesian government raised 6 trillion rupiah ($674.3 million) in a debt auction with rising short-term yields from a previous sale.   But a senior central bank official told Reuters that Bank Indonesia expects heavy outflows from the country's bonds market to subside as most investors have already priced in euro zone uncertainty.   CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR Change on the day at 0730 GMT Currency Latest bid Previous day Pct Move Japan yen 76.71 76.80 +0.12 Sing dlr 1.3072 1.3073 +0.01 Taiwan dlr 30.620 30.680 +0.20 Korean won 1190.55 1194.00 +0.29 Baht 31.11 31.13 +0.06 Peso 43.85 44.08 +0.52 Rupiah 8950.00 8890.00 -0.67 Rupee 49.25 49.42 +0.35 Ringgit 3.1875 3.2025 +0.47 *Yuan 6.3780 6.3859 +0.12 Change so far in 2011 Currency Latest bid End prev year Pct Move Japan yen 76.71 81.15 +5.79 Sing dlr 1.3072 1.2820 -1.93 Taiwan dlr 30.620 30.368 -0.82 Korean won 1190.55 1134.80 -4.68 Baht 31.11 30.14 -3.12 Peso 43.85 43.84 -0.02 Rupiah 8950.00 9005.00 +0.61 Rupee 49.25 44.70 -9.24 Ringgit 3.1875 3.0820 -3.31 Yuan 6.3780 6.5897 +3.32 * Chinese financial markets are closed on holidays. |
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krisluke
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05-Oct-2011 19:50
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SE Asia Stocks-Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia bounce back
* Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur see foreign money flow in
  * Thai big caps rebound on short covering   By Viparat Jantraprap   BANGKOK, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Stocks in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia ended higher on Wednesday as buyers cautiously bought back big caps but lingering worries about sovereign debt woes in Europe erased gains elsewhere in the region.   Markets were range-bound, and in light volume for the most part as the euro zone's debt problems kept investors on the sidelines despite share prices that are now looking attractive in terms of fundamentals.   Market players scooped up shares in late trading as European shares and commodity prices bounced after finance ministers agreed to safeguard banks from the spreading sovereign debt crisis.   However, the gains might be short-lived.   " There's still little support to turn sharemarkets up, going forward, and the odds are more for a fall than a rebound," said Kasem Prunratanamala, head of research at CIMB Securities (Thailand).   " With no quick end seen to the debt problems in Europe and with worries about a possible global recession prevailing, investors are cautious despite share price weakness," he said.   Stocks in Malaysia , Thailand and Indonesia reversed the lower trend seen earlier this week, climbing 1 percent, 0.8 percent and 0.7 percent respectively.   Singapore ended down 0.09 percent, erasing a 1 percent climb at one stage. The city-state had a choppy session, with the Straits Times Index touching the lowest in more than two years in early trade.   Philippine shares edged down 0.2 percent, with $14.5 million in foreign outflows on the day, stock exchange data showed. Vietnam was 0.2 percent lower.   Fund flows were mixed across the region. Malaysia reported 9.5 million ringgit ($2.97 million) in inflows, while Indonesia had $57 million in outflows, according to Thomson Reuters and stock exchange data.   Bangkok took in 1.1 billion baht ($35.3 million), after inflows in the previous three sessions. Thai stock losses have been in part due to domestic sales and short selling.   Southeast Asian stocks extended their slide early this week after ending the July-September quarter with their biggest losses since the final three months of 2008 during the financial crisis after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.   Oversold banks bounced back after big losses on Tuesday, when the prospect of a Greek default raised concerns about another global financial crisis.   Singapore's DBS Group Holdings was up 0.6 percent, after Tuesday's 6 percent fall. The stock remained in oversold territory, with a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 25.4 at the close against 23.9 on Tuesday.   An RSI index of 30 or below indicates a stock is oversold.   In Bangkok, top energy firm PTT jumped 3.3 percent as short sellers bought to cover positions, brokers said. (Editing by Alan Raybould)   For Asian Companies click For Asia-Pacific News click For South East Asia Hot Stock reports, click |
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krisluke
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05-Oct-2011 19:49
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Copper bounces back but caution remains
A security guard walks past a shipment of copper that is to be shipped to Asia in Valparaiso port in Chile
  LONDON (Reuters) - Copper bounced back from a five-day slide on Wednesday, with prices of the red metal boosted by the Federal Reserve's promise to launch more measures to help the fragile U.S. economy.   Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) climbed to $6,923.50 a tonne at 0915 GMT compared with Tuesday's close of $6,800. The gains, which earlier saw copper rise some 3 percent to hit a session high of $7,009.75 a tonne, were in line with stronger equity markets in Europe.   Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday the U.S. central bank's policy committee considers inflationary pressures well under control and given high unemployment, would be ready to ease monetary conditions further following the launch of a new stimulus measure in September.   That brought some comfort to investors in risky assets that have dumped both commodities and equities in a market rout that saw copper slump in the five sessions to Tuesday on worries a deepening debt crisis in Europe could hit the global economy.   " This points to more risk appetite and after the strong losses over the recent week, it is logical to see some bounce back, probably on bargain hunting," Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said.   " We are not out of the woods yet."   European finance ministers agreed on Tuesday to safeguard their banks as doubts grew about whether a planned second bailout package for debt-laden Greece would go ahead.   Hours earlier French-Belgian municipal lender Dexia became the first European bank to have to be bailed out due to the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis. trading at $2,194.25 from $2,174 a tonne and lead at $1,905 from $1,888 a tonne.   Zinc traded at $1,868 from $1,860 a tonne. Meanwhile nickel was at $18,695 from a closing bid of $18,700 a tonne and tin was at $20,801 from $20,995 a tonne. |
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krisluke
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05-Oct-2011 19:48
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Futures rise alongside Europe labor data awaited
![]() Times Square, New York
  * ISM non-manufacturing survey, ADP labor report on tap   * Costco quarterly profit, revenue miss views   * Futures up: Dow 69 pts, S& P 8 pts, Nasdaq 13.5 pts   By Ryan Vlastelica   NEW YORK, Oct 5 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were higher but more volatility was likely on Wednesday as European finance ministers appeared ready to prop up struggling banks, with data due on the U.S. labor market and services sector.   * Equities ended sharply higher on Tuesday in a very volatile session, with the S& P rising more than 2 percent after dipping into bear market territory -- defined as a 20 percent decline from recent highs.   * Markets whipsawed on Tuesday, first falling as European officials postponed a vital aid payment to Greece, then rallying after finance ministers were moving to safeguard banks.   * European equities were further lifted on Wednesday by the reports that regional finance ministers had expressed a new sense of urgency about the financial crisis and would prepare a plan to recapitalize banks. The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares rose 2.3 percent.   * Wall Street has taken its cues from Europe lately, with volatility rising on every sign of progress or delay in tackling the crisis. Fears of contagion have contributed to weakness in recent months and sent the S& P flirting into bear market territory.   * S& P 500 futures rose 8 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures added 69 points and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 13.5 points.   * The caution over Europe has persisted despite better-than-expected U.S. economic data. More was due on Wednesday. with the Institute for Supply Management releasing its September non-manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. EDT. The survey is seen holding steady from the prior month, when it was in expansionary territory.   * The ADP national employment report, coming at 8:15 a.m. EDT (1215 GMT), is expected to show a decline in the number of new private sector jobs compared with last month. The report precedes Friday's key non-farm payroll report, which is seen adding jobs in a rebound from August, a month of flat growth.   * Costco Wholesale Corp said early Wednesday that fourth-quarter earnings and revenue missed expectations, while late Tuesday fast food chain operator Yum Brands Inc reported a quarterly profit that matched expectations and said sales in China, a key market, rose 19 percent. and   * Investors rushed in to buy technology and other beaten-down sectors as the S& P 500 dipped in and out of a bear market on Tuesday before a late rally drove the index to its largest gain in more than a week. |
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krisluke
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05-Oct-2011 19:45
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Nymex Crude Oil (CL)Crude oil lost some downside momentum with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line and recovers. A temporary low is in place at 74.95 and intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But upside of recovery should be limited below 84.77 resistance and bring another fall. Below 74.95 will extend recent decline from 114.83 to 70 psychological level next. In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as the second leg of consolidation pattern from 147.24 and should have finished at 114.83 already. Current decline should target next key cluster support at 64.23 (61.8% retracement of 33.2 to 114.83 at 64.38) next. Sustained break will pave the way to retest 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 90.52 resistance is needed to invalidate this view or we'll stay bearish in crude oil now. Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
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krisluke
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05-Oct-2011 19:43
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Comex Gold (GC)Intraday bias in gold remains neutral for the momentum as it continues to stay in range of 1585/1683.5. We'd maintain that break of 1705.4 double top neckline is needed to indicate near term trend reversal. Otherwise, fall from 1923.7 is still expected to continue. On the downside, below 1585 minor support will flip bias to the downside for 1535 and break there will target 1500 psychological level next. Though, break of 1705.4 will argue that fall from 1923.7 might be over and will bring stronger rise towards this high. In the bigger picture, current development indicates that gold has made a medium term top at 1923.7, ahead of long term projection level of 161.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1945.6 and 2000 psychological level. While the fall from 1923.7 is steep and deep, gold is still holding inside long term rising channel from 681 and above 55 weeks EMA at 1504.1. Hence, we're not too bearish in gold yet. Strong support is anticipated at 1478.3/1577.4 support zone to contained downside, at least initially, and bring rebound. However, note that sustained break of 1478.3 will strongly suggest that the long term up trend has already reversed. Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
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