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News Update!
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krisluke
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31-Oct-2011 20:48
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krisluke
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31-Oct-2011 20:46
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SilverSilver declined after it failed to consolidate above 50% Fibonacci correction of the bearish wave as shown above at 35.10. This move indicates that the metal could retest 38.2% Fibonacci correction at 32.95, which also represents the ascending triangle base level. The Relative Strength Index is negative, which could support the metal to provide the suggested retest. Therefore, we expect a downside movement. The trading range for this week is among key support at 30.30 and key resistance at 37.80. The general trend over short term basis is to the downside targeting 26.65 as far as areas of 48.50 areas remain intact. Support: 34.00, 33.75, 33..40, 32.95, 32.50 Resistance: 34.60, 35.05, 35.65, 36.20, 36.80 Recommendation Based on the chart and explanations above, we recommend selling silver around 34.60 and take profit in stages at (33.85 and 32.95) and stop loss with daily closing above 35.25 might be appropriate.
GoldFriday's hanging man candlestick pattern has prevented the metal from achieving more bullishness above the key resistance level of 1753.00 as seen on the provided daily graph. Now, we have two additional main technical factors that force us to stay aside during this week as follows: The negativity on Stochastic. Approaching the sensitive areas of 1702.00-1700.00 which represent focal zones that will define the upcoming direction as a daily closing below them will bring additional bearishness while it also may provide the metal with the support it needs to complete the harmonic structure explained on Friday's reports -check the previous report-. To recap, staying aside is favored as far as the metal is close to 1702.00 zones. The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1627.00 and key resistance now at 1785.00. The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside targeting 1945.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing Support: 1702.00, 1687.00, 1665.00, 1653.00, 1635.00 Resistance: 1728.00, 1745.00, 1763.00, 1772.00, 1785.00 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, staying aside until an actionable technical setup presents itself to pinpoint the next big move.
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krisluke
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31-Oct-2011 20:43
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Crude retreating at the beginning of the week Crude oil declines since the opening of this week retreating from gains that achieved last week due to the rising dollar which made commodities more expensive for investors after the BoJ intervened in the markets to stem the continuous rising in their Japanese Yen. Crude is trading with a negative momentum since morning driven by the rising dollar and the darkness that covers the European debt plan as more details must be clarified in order to ensure help from China and other countries that would support Europe by buying the EFSF bonds. Crude oil opened today’s session negatively to open the week at $93.25 and recorded a high of 93.53 and recorded so far a low of $92.32, where it is currently hovering around $92.51. The Bank of Japan intervened in the market today for the third consecutive time this year in order to stem the persistent inclines seen on the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar, where the pair reached new all-time record, which hurt the economic recovery and growth especially after Japan is struggling amid disaster’s effects that hit the nation earlier this year. This intervention had affected global markets, where we can see that the bank sold huge amounts of yen and bought dollars instead, which supported the dollar to incline sharply bringing more downside pressures on commodities, and oil in particular, to trade lower at the beginning of a new week. On the other hand, vagueness is dominating the outlook for the implementation of the plan and more details are needed, where the G-20 meeting which will be held on 3-4 of November, may come up with more details for the role of emerging countries, BRICS, in supporting Europe. Also, the European plan for banks’ recapitalization is not enough in the eye of some investors to provide enough liquidity in markets, but the headlines would be declared after the G-20 meeting, which drive the uncertainty high. Nonetheless, global markets have seen a wave of optimism last week after EU leaders unleashed the long waited plan to see crude rising from around 87.00 to 95.00 levels, as the plan had improved the outlook for the economy, which will lead eventually for high demand on crude. Today, investors will eagerly awaiting for key fundamentals from Euro Zone, as the unemployment is expected to remain steady in September, and the inflation rate is expected to ease as the CPI flash estimate would show. Amid lack of fundamentals from U.S. and some key fundamentals from Europe, the focus will be on Europe as usual, looking for any comments, hints or more details on the implementation of the European plan. Technical analysis for Energy market The commodity started the week lower, where trading remains within the short term ascending channel, but below the main descending resistance shown on the image. The 200 days SMA is also protecting the price from above, Stochastic is clearly overbought as well, therefore for this morning we anticipate a downside pullback but for the week we need more confirmations for the next potential move, either a breach above 95.00 which will signal the continuation of the bullish wave or stability below 89.60 which may lead to further decline towards 85.00 area. The trading range for the week is among the major support at 89.60 and the major resistance at 96.00. The short-term trend is to the downside with steady daily closing below 100.00 targeting 65.00. Support: 92.00, 90.60, 89.60, 88.75, 87.50 Resistance: 93.15, 94.50, 95.00, 96.30, 98.00 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend selling oil around 93.10 targeting 92.00 and 90.60 . Stop loss with hourly closing above 93.75
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krisluke
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31-Oct-2011 20:40
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BoJ intervenes after investors added to JPY longs The latest IMM data cover the week from 18 to 25 October. BoJ likely triggered large position squeeze: Non-commercial investors added USD4.5bn to long yen positions last week, which took net longs back above 30 percent of open interest. This not only helps explain the recent lack of yen weakness at a time when most financial markets are in the process of pricing a lower global recession risk, but also means that the BoJ likely got a bigger bang-for-the-yen in today’s intervention. Recent Japanese interventions have not been successful in delivering sustained yen weakness, however, and until monetary policy is eased more significantly in Japan, we see a high probability of renewed yen position building over the coming weeks and hence also a correction back lower again in USD/JPY. Indeed, today (and the coming days) is likely to see analysts and investors refer to recent JPY intervention episodes and the following corrections lower in USD/JPY as a case for renewed JPY buying. Long USD positions are being unwound: The dollar has weakened just as rapidly as it rallied and is now almost back at August levels. Recent dollar weakness has coincided with broad-based position unwinding and aggregate net long dollar positions now stand at USD9.2bn – down from USD15.1bn the week prior. A reduction in stretched long positions is consistent with recent improvements in global (and not least US) macro data and hence a reduced global recession risk. There should be room for further position unwinding, however, which could not least benefit the commodity currencies (especially CAD), but potentially also the euro, should the ECB sound less dovish than expected at its upcoming monetary policy meeting.
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tanglinboy
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30-Oct-2011 21:14
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Thanks. Good updates. |
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krisluke
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30-Oct-2011 20:06
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Groups urge G20 not to ignore development agenda
South Africa's Finance Minister Gordhan poses next to IMF head Lagarde during the family photo at the G20 meeting in Paris
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Global development groups on Friday called on G20 leaders to step up to their commitments to tackle global food security and come up with new ways to boost world growth that also benefit the poorest. With Europe's sovereign debt crisis set to dominate the G20 summit on November 3-4 in Cannes, France, there is concern leaders will avoid firm decisions to address increased global food price volatility and new ways to finance development. " The challenge for the G20 is can they see beyond the immediate crisis to what is needed to ensure broader prosperity," said Samuel Worthington who heads InterAction, an alliance of U.S. based international development groups. French President Nicholas Sarkozy has called for progress to address rising food prices and infrastructure development. He asked billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates to come up with innovative ways to raise resources for poor countries. In an op-ed published in the Washington Post on Friday, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said the world economy was not only hobbled by large deficits and troubled banks but also by joblessness and slow growth. " Together all nations must at least agree not to do dumb things -- such as retreat to protectionism or trade wars. The G20 also must offset the damage to the poorest which do not sit at the table," he wrote. The debt crisis in the euro zone and budget cuts in the United States to address high government debt have squeezed foreign aid. House Republicans have proposed cutting another $8.6 billion from the budget for the State Department and foreign aid in fiscal 2012 starting October 1. Such cuts have led to thinking about new sources of aid for development programs. The Gates report is set to propose taxing financial transactions, tobacco and shipping and aviation fuels to raise new sources of aid, according to a draft of the proposals obtained by Reuters. The financial transaction tax is a thorny issue and opposed by Canada, Britain, the United States, Australia and China because it puts more burden on banks. France, Germany and Austria support it. In the draft, Gates suggests that even a small tax of 10 basis points on equities and 2 basis points on bonds would raise about $48 billion among G20 members. " We hope that this is something the G20 takes up seriously and the U.S. at least stops opposing and at best gets behind in order to address some of the global economic challenges we're facing," Paul O'Brien, vice president for policy and campaigns at Oxfam America, told reporters. O' Brien said the G20 agreed on the need to boost growth but the process was hampered by an unwillingness by both advanced and emerging economies to commit to new initiatives to create lasting economic growth. " If they come out of Cannes with yet another internal discussion and nothing conclusive on institutions or financing, how many more G20's are we going to wait before we get what the global economy needs, which is a little bit of foresight and consensus around course correction," he said. Neil Watkins, director of policy and campaigns at ActionAid USA, acknowledged he did not expect major progress on food security issues at the upcoming G20. He said he hoped the United States, which chairs the G8 next year, and Mexico, which takes over the G20 from France in 2012, will signal they intend to take up the issues. " This is a real crisis and G20 leaders have a responsibility to take action to reduce the world's vulnerability and food insecurity," said Watkins. Citing a report by the U.S.- based International Food Policy Research Institute, he said biofuel production in the European Union and U.S., extreme weather, and increased trading in commodity futures had exacerbated food price volatility. Watkins said the G20 was likely to take firm decisions on food insecurity except adopt a pilot project on food reserves in West Africa. " This is an important pilot project but its totally insufficient compared to the needs out there," he said, calling on leaders to commit to halt incentives for biofuel production. Robert Zachritz, director advocacy and government relations at World Vision, noted that Americans will spend $7 billion on Halloween costumes and candy this year, nearly twice the $3 billion the United States has committed to feeding programs. |
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krisluke
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30-Oct-2011 20:05
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Wall Street posts 4 weeks of gains
New York Night Skyline
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed out a fourth week of gains in quiet fashion on Friday, edging higher as the market took a breather after rallying 3 percent on Europe's deal to stem its debt crisis. Though investors still have questions about implementing the deal, they appeared satisfied by Europe's progress as stocks ended their longest weekly winning streak of the year. The S& P 500 rose 3.7 percent for the week. The benchmark index had a seven-week rally that ended in January, but only two of the weeks were in 2011. October also was on track to be the best month for stocks since 1974, supported by strong earnings. Merck & Co Inc and Chevron Corp both topped expectations with financial results on Friday. " For it to not sell off is as much a positive sign as anything," said Andrew Slimmon, managing director at Global Investment Solutions of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney in Chicago. " We have had a very good earnings season and the benefit of what happened in Europe is that it allows investors to focus on the good earnings season and move the European problem from the primary worry to off the headlines." The Dow Jones industrial average gained 22.56 points, or 0.18 percent, to 12,231.11. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 0.49 point, or 0.04 percent, to 1,285.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 1.48 points, or 0.05 percent, to 2,737.15. Concerns that the euro zone debt crisis would spread and stifle domestic bank profits had been a huge overhang for equities, with the S& P down almost 20 percent -- defined as a bear market -- early this month. As optimism grew about Europe's debt plan, bulls began to gain momentum and the S& P 500 is now up more than 13 percent this month, on pace for its biggest monthly gain since October 1974. According to Thomson Reuters data, of the 315 companies in the S& P 500 that have reported quarterly results, 71 percent have posted earnings above analyst expectations. The head of Europe's bailout fund played down hopes of a quick deal with China for that country to throw its support behind efforts to resolve the crisis but said he expects Beijing to continue to buy bonds issued by the rescue fund. Hewlett-Packard Co gained 3.5 percent to $27.94 a day after it said it was ditching a plan to spin off its personal computers unit, a plan that was expected to have cost billions of dollars in expenses and lost business. A pair of Dow components posted stronger-than-expected earnings. Merck rose 2.3 percent to $35.11 after its profit and sales beat analyst estimates, and Chevron's profit more than doubled. The stock advanced 0.6 percent to $109.64. MF Global Holdings Ltd slumped 16.1 percent to $1.20. Some customers are moving money away from the futures brokerage, rivals, hedge fund officials and analysts said, though the extent of the outflows is unclear. Economic data on Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment improved in October for the second month in a row as consumers felt more upbeat about the economy's prospects. Volume was about 7.71 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq, below the daily average of 8.03 billion. Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 1,505 to 1,475, while on the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers 1,406 to 1,114. |
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krisluke
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30-Oct-2011 20:01
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Gold Prices " Return to Form" , China Mulls " Strategic Opportunities" of Helping Europe, EFSF " Cannot Support Both Banks & Govts" Gold Prices hit a one-month high of $1752 per ounce during Friday's Asian trade - 7.9% up since the start of October - before easing back by lunchtime in London. Stocks and commodities edged lower and US Treasury bonds gained, as investors began to digest the implications of this week's Euro Summit deal. As we headed towards the weekend, Gold Prices were hovering around $1737 per ounce - 5.9% higher than last week's close, and set for their biggest weekly gain since August. " The outlook into next week should remain cautious," ones one gold dealer in London. " Gold's return to form [however], after a period of indifferent performance, will have won it back some supporters, especially since this week's initial rally ran contrary to equities. Silver Prices were up over 12% for the week by Friday lunchtime - at around $35.20 per ounce. Based on Friday-to-Friday London Fix prices, silver looked set for its biggest weekly gain since May 2009. European Financial Stability Facility chief executive Klaus Regling held meetings with officials from China's central bank and finance ministry Friday, following yesterday's announcement by European leaders that they will leverage the resources of the EFSF - the Eurozone's bailout fund - possibly by setting up a special purpose vehicle to attract investment. China has been " a good, loyal buyer" of EFSF-issued bonds said Regling, adding that around 40% of EFSF bonds issued to date are held by Asian investors - though he declined to reveal how many were specifically in Chinese hands. " I am optimistic that we will have also a longer-term relationship because we will continue to provide safe, attractive investment opportunities." The EFSF is rated triple-A by all three major ratings agencies. Regling's visit follows Thursday's telephone conference between China's president Hu Jintao and French president Nicolas Sarkozy. " Our independence will in no way be put into question by this," insisted Sarkozy yesterday. " It is in China's long-term and intrinsic interest to help Europe," adds Li Daokui, academic member of China's central bank monetary policy committee. " They are our biggest trading partner but the chief concern of the Chinese government is how to explain this decision to our own people...the last thing China wants is to throw away the country's wealth and be seen as just a source of dumb money." " As a Chinese saying goes, a crisis always contains opportunities in itself," notes an editorial on the website of China's state-run news agency Xinhua, adding that " strategic vision is needed" . " The issue as to recognition of China's full market economy status has long been a stumbling block to the development of China-EU relations...European leaders, especially those of great insight, have begun to reflect on the problem, but any delays in seeking a solution, along with persistent practice of protectionism in the name of fair trade, is a clear sign of shortsightedness." Back in Europe, there are fears that the continent's banks could be facing a credit market freeze, according to news agency Bloomberg. Over $1 trillion of debt must be refinanced next year, the newswire reports, but banks are struggling to roll that over by selling new bonds, with more and more relying on short-term emergency funding from the European Central Bank. " If banks can't fund themselves, they'll struggle to exist," says David Moss, director at F& C Asset Management. In addition to debt refinancing, some banks say they will need to raise billions if they are meet the 9% capital ratio requirement announced at this week's Euro Summit. " There is talk about Europe-wide bank guarantees [for bank-issued bonds], but it is not clear yet how that would work," adds Alberto Gallo, head of European credit strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland. " What is clear is that the EFSF doesn't have enough fire-power to support this as well as standing behind the sovereigns and any bank recapitalizations." A key indicator of banks' wariness to lend this week hit its worst level since July 2009 according to Bloomberg data. The spread between 3-month Dollar Libor (the rate at which banks lend Dollars to other banks for three months) and the overnight indexed swap rate (a lower fixed rate as interest rate swaps are considered less risky than cash lending) hit 34.5 basis points (0.345 percentage points) on Wednesday. The Libor-OIS spread is viewed as a measure of money market stress, tending to rise when banks perceive the risk of lending to each other is greater. Libor-OIS spreads have risen sharply since the start of August - when they were around 12 bps - though they remain way below levels hit just before the Lehman shock of September 2008, when they spiked to over 350 bps. Over in the US, Goldman Sachs considers five potential monetary policy developments in a new research note:
" We think nominal GDP targeting probably provides the best way of communicating a credible intention to deliver a more aggressive easing without taking risks on long-term inflation," says the report. Gold Prices " should slowly drift higher" in the near-term, reckons Jeremy Friesen, commodities strategist at Societe Generale. " The market will focus on how central banks across the board are going to shift from neutral or tightening to accommodative or aggressively accommodative policy." |
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krisluke
Supreme |
30-Oct-2011 19:59
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European Holiday Wow,what a celebration! Just call it a European holiday as oil and commodity bulls just rejoice. With the banks in Europe ready to take a 50% Greek haircut and as China helps beef up the EU's emergancy rescue fund, prices soared. What are the details? Who needs details when a rally never felt so good. Now if that wasn't enough of a reason for the market to rally, how about the fact that the US is not in a recession. Commodity traders around the world were convinced we were and traded accordingly. Yet now they have to take it back while the US posted .5% GDP driven by consumer spending. Looks like a lot of candy will be bought for Halloween! Commodity bulls thought trading yesterday was like taking candy away from a baby. Is it just too good to be true? Sure it is! While the comeback gets us more in line with reality, prices have come too far too fast. Despite the happy feelings, we all know that the European sovereign debt crisis is far from over. In fact it isn't over until we say it is. The lack of details and fears that the players won't be able to put it in place means that we will see more skepticism as we move forward. Beware of profit taking! The EU is touting their " three-pronged plan" by giving Greek debt a Telly Savalas hair cut by 50%, increased the European Financial Stability Facility and told the banks to raise their capital and agreed to help them do so. Add to that another 184 billion for Greece and we were off the races. Of course we have seen this story before! Enjoy it while it lasts! |
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krisluke
Supreme |
30-Oct-2011 19:58
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Commodity Relief Rally - Will it Stick?The news from Europe that its leaders (after two years of turmoil) finally delivered what looks like a useful set of tools to bring the crisis, if not to an end then at least under some sort of control triggered huge rallies across riskier assets. The S& P 500 erased all of its 2011 losses and is now on course for the best monthly performance since 1974. Commodities meanwhile also took another major step away from the lows seen last month with the Reuters Jeffries CRB index surging by 5.5 percent and almost moving into positive territory for the year. The big question now is whether Europe has done enough in order to bring back investor confidence in the Eurozone or whether, once the dust settles, the market once again comes to the conclusion that the can has once again been kicked further into the long grass. While stock markets rallied Eurozone bond markets seemed less convinced with the 10 year yield on Spanish and Italian bonds falling by much less than what could have been hoped for. These markets will be the focus in the weeks ahead and will determine whether the rally in stocks and commodities will continue. All in all a good week though, especially for riskier assets which on top of the European result took direction from improved economic data from the US and China which has further reduced the risk of recession. This changed environment forced many investors and funds to re-enter on the long side thereby adding additional upside pressure to the market. According to Barclays, investors globally pulled 10 billion dollars out of commodities during September with speculative investments held by hedge funds through futures and options on U.S. exchanges falling by 44 percent to 900,000 lots. Rebuilding these positions has been felt across all commodities this week, especially in copper, silver and WTI crude.
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krisluke
Supreme |
30-Oct-2011 19:56
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Wall St Week Ahead: Have you heard? Buy the dip
Times Square, New York
NEW YORK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - With the S& P 500 about to end its best month in almost 40 years, many would be happy to cash in gains and start packing for the ski slopes. But some underperforming investors are being cornered into putting yet more money into U.S. stocks. The S& P 500 on Friday closed its fourth week of gains and is up more than 13 percent in October alone. But many, including hedge funds, were caught wrong-footed by the rally. Even though some pullback may be expected next week, the clearer picture after the European deal " should give a green light for many of the funds to get back in risk assets," according to Robert Francello, head trader at hedge fund Apex Capital, which manages about $2 billion in San Francisco. " Hopefully we'll be able to see some further gains into the year end," he said. Hedge funds, among the equity market's power players, are on average sitting on losses of 8 percent for the year according to Hedge Fund Research. Meanwhile, the S& P 500 is up for the year, if only a bit more than 2 percent. A JPMorgan note to clients following Thursday's 3 percent rally on the U.S. benchmark index argues for a " strong foundation for an equity rally into year end," with a 1,400-1,475 target. That's more than the 8 percent gain hedge funds would need to come out of the red for the year. " If you're a hedge fund manager and you want to put money to work it feels like it has to be on the long side: buying stocks, buying risky assets," said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at the ConvergEx Group in New York. " For the moment, you've taken away major risk in Europe and you've replaced it with a potential positive in stock valuations and no double-dip." European leaders reached a long-awaited agreement to boost the region's bailout fund and struck a deal with banks and insurers who will take a 50 percent loss on their Greek bonds. A more disorderly default from Greece, and the possibility of sovereign defaults spreading in Europe, were part of the reason the S& P 500 closed its worst quarter since 2008 in September. The market was also relieved after data earlier this week showed the U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the third quarter. A heavy flow of job market data, capped on Friday by the government's monthly report of job payrolls, will be closely watched to confirm the upbeat macroeconomic trend. A Reuters poll of economists shows employers created 95,000 jobs in October. EARNINGS AND FED TO POWER ON THE RALLY More than 100 S& P 500 companies will report earnings next week, with Lowes, Pfizer and Kellogg among the highlights. Among the more than 300 that have already posted earnings for the past quarter, roughly seven out of 10 have reported better numbers than analysts expected. Some expect the Federal Reserve to announce another round of asset purchases -- similar to the quantitative easing plan set up last year that sparked a year-long rally in stocks. An equities rally following Fed purchases would most likely be led by commodity-related sectors, said Apex Capital's Francello. " The Fed is beginning to lay the groundwork for another round of quantitative easing, so that should also put some wind in the back of risk assets," he said. CHARTS ALSO LOOK BULLISH The technical picture is also turning bullish, with the S& P moving this week above its 200-day moving average for the first time since early August. At 1,285 the S& P faces resistance just below 1,300, an RBC Capital Markets note said, but the year-end trend for stocks points higher. " We're still in a period of high volatility so you can't take anything for granted," said Colas from ConvergEx Group. " Do you buy the dips? I believe that is the case." (Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday) (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos additional reporting by Svea Herbst Editing by Kenneth Barry) |
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krisluke
Supreme |
30-Oct-2011 19:54
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European shares slip after Italy rattles investors
European flag floating in front of the European Commission building in Brussels
* Italian stocks fall after bond auction * European shares make 5 weeks of gains By Joanne Frearson LONDON, Oct 28 (Reuters) - European shares slipped on Friday after the previous session's rally on the European Union's debt deal, as a disappointing Italian bond auction fuelled investors' scepticism about the plan to tackle the region's debt crisis. The FTSEurofirst 300 index made its fifth week of gains, boosted by Thursday's sharp moves after policymakers struck a deal that included leveraging up a rescue fund to 1 trillion euros and a 50 percent writedown for private bondholders of Greek debt. But some investors are concerned by the lack of detail in the outline plan. At a sale of 10-year Italian bonds on Friday, yields hit a euro-era high, underlining the country's vulnerability at the heart of the debt crisis and causing the Italian FTSE MIB to drop 1.8 percent, underperforming other exchanges. " Yesterday was encouraging, although we do not know much details on the deal," Veronika Pechlaner, a fund manager on the Ashburton European equity fund, said. " We were fully invested going into the meeting." " But the Italian bond auction spooked the market. It tells us we can not relax yet and Italy has to make more progress on the restructuring side." She has invested in BNP Paribas , HSBC and Deutsche Bank < DBKGn.DE> and will look to change this depending on what the details emerge on the euro zone plan as well as seeing how the economic and corporate environment improves. Octopus Investments remained cautiously positioned. " Following the progress that risk assets have made, we are braced to see more downside from here as investors begin to look for more detail on how the EFSF (rescue fund) will be leveraged to the 1 trillion euro mark," said Lothar Mentel, chief investment officer at Octopus Investments which manages $4 billion. The FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 closed down 0.2 percent at 1,018.14 points and ended the week up 4.1 percent - its biggest weekly gain since early October. The benchmark index is still down 9.2 percent so far this year as concerns have grown about the macro economic environment and contagion from the euro zone debt crisis. EARNINGS MIXED Earnings news gave a mixed picture about how companies were holding up. Strong third-quarter sales at Renault lifted the shares up 4.5 percent to become the top performer on the French CAC , while Wacker Chemie dropped 9.8 percent to become the biggest faller on the FTSEurofirst 300 index after the world's No.2 maker of polysilicon cut its outlook. |
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krisluke
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30-Oct-2011 19:53
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Portugal, Spain urge G20 members to help ease crisis
* Europe debt crisis seen dominating G20 summit next week
* Stimulus needed to drive global economy - Spain (Recasts with prime ministers' comments, adds byline) By Guido Nejamkis and Daniela Desantis ASUNCION, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Spain and Portugal said on Saturday the euro zone's debt crisis is a global problem, calling on the United States and other G20 powers to help contain the fallout. Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero urged the G20 countries least affected by the crisis to provide " urgent stimulus plans" to shield the global economy. Europe's debt crisis looks set to dominate the summit of Group of 20 leading economies in France from Nov. 3-4. The gathering in Cannes will take place a week after euro zone leaders reached a deal to recapitalize their banks, boost the firepower of a euro zone rescue fund and impose hefty losses on holders of Greek debt. " We hope these deals, together with those made by the G20 next weekend ... restore the confidence needed to keep the economy moving," Zapatero told leaders at the Ibero-American summit in Paraguay. " I hope they will rise to the challenge next week. The United States has a role, the Federal Reserve has a role, all the central banks of big countries have their role -- of course, China, India, Brazil, the Europeans and Japan," he said during a news conference. " The G20's response has two key elements. Firstly, those of us who have been working to consolidate our fiscal position cannot change course. But those countries that have the margin to incentivize economic activity have to adopt urgent stimulus plans. If not, the global economy will be affected." In the last 18 months, Zapatero has made cuts and implemented reforms to show Spain is serious about fiscal discipline and to avoid a sell-off in its debt on concerns it would need a Greek-style bailout. Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho told leaders gathered in Asuncion the " crisis was not just European." " This is a global crisis," said. " It's a crisis that calls on all of us, whether in Europe, in Latin America or any other continent." A source from the Portuguese delegation said Passos Coelho asked Mexican President Felipe Calderon to tell fellow G20 members that Washington should help resolve the crisis " by boosting trade and also with financial help." " The European Union has already responded to the crisis. It hopes to find in the G20 setting a global response to a crisis that is systemic and global," the source added, speaking on condition of anonymity. Financial markets rallied strongly this week after European leaders hammered out the crisis deal, although analysts quickly warned that details of the rescue could still take weeks or even months to work out. Portugal is suffering a deepening recession as it implements painful austerity measures under a 78 billion euro ($110.3 billion) European Union/International Monetary Fund bailout. (Writing by Helen Popper Editing by John O'Callaghan) |
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krisluke
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30-Oct-2011 19:52
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For snow and lawn machines, gasoline remains king
* Few alternative energy options in outdoor machines
* Equipment makers, buyers committed to traditional engines * Concerns over battery power, costs keeps focus on oil By John D. Stoll LOUISVILLE, Kentucky, Oct 28 (Reuters) - In America's quest for cleaner fuel, at least one major U.S. industry is holding on to the sputter and grime of the internal combustion engine. From log splitters to snow blowers, the $15 billion outdoor power equipment industry sells tens of millions of oil-powered machines a year to U.S. landscapers, loggers, homeowners and a litany of other buyers. While lawn mowers get faster, snow blowers cover more ground and handheld products get lighter, their propulsion has barely changed beyond getting more mileage out of gasoline. This week, at the annual Green Industry and Equipment Expo in Louisville, Kentucky, manufacturers will once again unveil new equipment with some promise of a cleaner, greener future. " We do anticipate the trend moving in the direction of alternative energy," said Jeff Salamon, director of marketing at MTD Products Inc. " Some customers do like the experience of being unencumbered by exhaust and gasoline." However, the answers offered will likely be more of the same. " Gas engines, by and large, are the most efficient way to go," Briggs & Stratton Corp Chief Executive Todd Teske told Reuters in an interview shortly after a press conference to unveil the company's latest engine. Briggs & Stratton sells electric mowers, but only in Australia. NOT YOUR FATHER'S MACHINE For decades, garden and snow machines were a poster child for harmful emissions. In fact, when auto executives were confronted by regulators for their contributions to pollution, they pointed to the lawn industry as a more offensive culprit. In the mid-1990s, that began to change as the Environmental Protection Agency began pressuring engine makers with tougher standards. " These aren't your father's lawn machines," Kris Keiser, president of the Outdoor Power Equipment Institute, said. At Briggs & Stratton, for example, Teske said emissions have been cut by 75 percent since the mid-1990s thanks to manufacturing upgrades and design improvements. Another 35 percent reduction will come in 2012. The auto and other industries are under constant pressure to raise fuel economy or tap new technologies because their customers often burn through dozens or more gallons of gasoline each month. As gas prices rise, so does the strain on pocketbooks. But outdoor equipment users don't face these pressures. " People who use our products typically use no more than five gallons of gasoline per year," Keiser said. This lessens the likelihood that customers will demand huge advances in fuel economy or solutions that lessen their operating expenses. Even commercial landscapers here in Louisville don't seem to be budging, despite high weekly fuel costs. " THIS CUSTOMER IS DIFFERENT" Wang Xiaoguang, general manager of Wenling Leo Garden Machinery Co -- which claims to be the largest exporter of Chinese garden machines -- is learning this lesson first hand. Standing at his exhibition booth, he talks about Leo's successful business of exporting electric mowers to Europe. " This customer is different," Wang said of the U.S. market which Leo has yet to crack. " They have different standards." But some companies, including a handful of start-ups, aren't waiting for customers to change their minds. Lincoln Jore, a 28-year-old entrepreneur from Ronan, Montana, launched a new " GasLess" outdoor equipment company called Core Outdoor Power on Thursday aimed at commercial landscapers and higher-end homeowners. His first product, a $249 weed whacker weighing 11 pounds, is powered by an unconventional motor and lithium-ion battery that slips in and out of the machine so it can be charged on a separate dock. It will begin appearing at independent U.S. dealers early next year. The " market has missed the mark on developing alternative energy products that meet performance expectations," he said. By 2013, Jore plans to have a broader range of products, including a lawn mower and leaf blower that don't use gas. TWICE THE PRICE But even the most established global players are finding it hard to turn the tide. Honda Motor Co sells thousands of hybrid snow blowers in Japan annually and is bringing a hybrid model to the United States. This model promises to be the Cadillac of its class, capable of clearing 83 tons of snow in an hour and sweep a city sidewalk in one pass. But, at $8,000, this machine is twice as expensive as the company's previous top-of-the-line model, and hybrid technology is driving up the cost. Honda's expectations for sales of the Japan-built hybrid are extremely modest, but it wants to test the market before committing to other alternative-energy models. If Wisconsin-based Ariens Co's experience during last year's tough winter is any indication, there may be hope for Honda. Ariens put on sale an electric snow blower priced 60 percent higher than a conventional model. The company sold out of its limited quantity of electric snow blowers amid heavy snowfall and tight industry capacity. Stihl Inc, which says it is the No. 1 seller of handheld outdoor power devices, is also branching out. It has a new lineup of chainsaws, leaf blowers, weed whackers and hedge trimmers that are powered by lithium-ion batteries. The products cost 30 percent more than conventional gas-powered versions and, while initial demand has outstripped expectations, the company said it is too early to break out specific sales results. Cub Cadet, a brand owned by MTD, has a lithium-ion-powered product line on display similar to those sold by Stihl, but demand so far is only from a " faction" of customers, Salamon said. Still, Cub Cadet is poised for a shift at some point, even if it is slow going, he noted. (Editing by Richard Chang) |
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krisluke
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30-Oct-2011 19:51
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More than 60 pct of global consumers downbeat -Nielsen
* India retains top spot but Saudi catching up
* Confidence weakest in Hungary * One-in-three N. Americans have no spare cash By Susan Fenton LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Global consumer confidence remained weak in the third quarter with more than 60 percent of consumers saying it was not a good time to spend, and one-in-three North Americans saying they have no spare cash, a survey showed on Sunday. The economic outlook, followed by job security, became consumers' biggest concern in the third quarter, overtaking worries about rising inflation, according to the quarterly survey by global analytics and information company Nielsen. The Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index dipped just 1 point in the third quarter from the second quarter to 88 points, but it was shored up by a surge in confidence in emerging economies Brazil and Saudi Arabia, which masked weak confidence in major developed economies. A reading below 100 indicates consumers are pessimistic about the economic outlook for the coming months. Confidence was highest in India for a seventh straight quarter but India's reading fell 5 points from the second quarter and Saudi Arabia was catching up. Consumer morale in the euro zone remained especially weak, notably in France, as the region's debt crisis deepened during the summer. Confidence in Greece, at the centre of the crisis, actually rose sharply but it was still the fourth-weakest of markets surveyed. Confidence was lowest in Hungary. One-in-five Europeans said they have no extra cash to spend, although that was better than one-in-three North Americans. Confidence in European powerhouse Germany was better than much of Europe and the United States, but like the U.S. its reading dipped 1 point from the second quarter. " The third quarter was volatile and challenging for global economies and financial markets amid stagnant U.S. unemployment figures and a worsening euro zone debt crisis," said Venkatesh Bala, chief economist at The Cambridge Group, a part of Nielsen. " A recessionary mindset is growing among consumers as more than half say they are currently in a recession -- up 4 percentage points from last quarter and 7 points from the start of the year. The result is continued spending restraint for discretionary expenses, which is expected to continue into next year." The survey, taken between Aug. 30 and Sept. 16 and covering 28,000 consumers in 56 countries, showed 64 percent of consumers globally saying it was not a good time to spend. Financial markets picked up last week following a euro zone agreement to tackle its debt crisis and after encouraging third-quarter U.S. economic growth data, but further positive data will be required to reassure consumers. Confidence in China dipped a point while in Europe the Baltic states of Latvia and Lithuania saw a surge in confidence, though it was still relatively low. The survey showed that global consumers facing tighter budgets would cut back on clothing purchases, dining out and buying electronics and appliances before anything else. " If the global economic climate worsens, these three sectors appear to be particularly vulnerable," said Bala. The survey is based on consumers' confidence in the job market, status of their personal finances and readiness to spend. Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index in the third quarter, 2011 (Change from Q2, 2011 survey in brackets): Top 10 index readings Bottom 10 index readings India 121 (-5) Estonia 72 (+6) Saudi Arabia 120 (+13) Lithuania 71 (+11) Indonesia 114 (+2) Latvia 69 (+12) Philippines 112 (-3) Ireland 64 (0) Brazil 112 (+16) France/Japan/Spain 56^ Thailand 109 (+4) Italy 52 (-3) UAE 105 (-5) Greece 51 (+10) China/Hong Kong 104 (-1,-3) Romania/S.Korea/Croatia 49* Norway/Malaysia 101 (+3,-9) Portugal 40 (-2) Switzerland 99 (-9) Hungary 37 (-6) -------------------------------------------------------------- Global consumer confidence average 88 (-1) United States 77 (-1) Germany 87 (-1) UK 73 (+1) ^ (-13,+1,-4) * (+2,-3,+4) Source: The Nielsen Company |
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krisluke
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30-Oct-2011 19:50
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Oil falls on EU rescue deal skepticism
By Robert Gibbons
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices retreated on Friday in light volume trading as uncertainties about Europe's plan to tackle its debt problems prompted some profit taking after the previous session's rally. Brent crude managed a small weekly gain, but its bigger losses on Friday dropped it below its 100-day moving average and reduced the premium to U.S. crude to under $17 a barrel after it topped $19 intraday on Thursday. " After a rally like we saw yesterday it was reasonable to see oil prices fall," Torbjorn Kjus of DnB NOR said. " There was a bit of euphoria yesterday based on the EU meeting and when you look at it (it) wasn't that strong a package. It was a moderate package so it was a little bit surprising to see so much of a rally." Oil rose on Thursday in a cross-market rally after European governments announced a plan to tackle the region's sovereign debt crisis and after news that the U.S. economy in the third quarter grew at its fastest pace in a year.. ICE Brent December crude fell $2.17 to settle at $109.91 a barrel, falling back below the front-month 100-day moving average of $111.46. Brent posted a 35-cent weekly gain, after a 4.5 percent loss in the previous week. U.S. December crude fell 64 cents to settle at $93.32 a barrel, in choppy trading from $92.01 to $93.93. U.S. crude posted a 6.77 percent weekly gain, biggest percentage gain since the week to February 19. Crude trading volumes remained tepid a second straight day, with both Brent and U.S. volumes under a half million lots traded. Brent was 25 percent under and U.S. 31 percent below their respective 30-day averages. U.S. volumes topped 1 million lots earlier this week. Speculators raised their net long position in U.S. crude oil and options positions in the week to October 25 to the highest level since June, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. News that winter storm watches were issued for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast failed to keep U.S. heating oil futures from a bigger percentage loss than for crude and U.S. gasoline fell more than 2 percent as November refined products contracts approached expiration on Monday. Oil prices also received pressure from data showing Japan's factory output fell in September for the first time since the March earthquake. This indicated that recovery after the disaster is tailing off in the face of slowing global growth, the strong yen and Europe's problems. " The markets are now going to react to most all of the macroeconomic data that hits the airwaves much as it did ... when Japanese factory production declined by 4 percent in September," Dominick Chirichella, senior partner at Energy Management Institute in New York, said in a note, emphasizing the global manufacturing sector's importance going forward. U.S. stocks finished a fourth week of gains, with major indexes ending mixed as investors paused following a rally that sent the S& P 500 index up almost 20 percent since briefly dipping into bear market territory earlier this month. Mixed U.S. economic data did little to support oil prices, as sluggish income growth made U.S. households to cut back on saving in September to raise their spending, though a separate report showed consumer morale brightened in October. EUROPE STILL A FOCUS The dollar index clung to a small gain, helping pressure dollar-denominated oil, as the euro fell from a seven-week high versus the greenback hit Thursday and an Italian bond auction showed investors are not fully convinced the region's problems are resolved. A German court on Friday suspended a parliamentary committee's right to approve urgent actions by the euro zone's bailout fund, potentially delaying key moves to tackle the bloc's crisis. |
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Jackpot2010
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29-Oct-2011 09:10
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Europe's Iron Lady saves the world (market) from near collapse this week. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8855882/Angela-Merkel-The-triumph-of-Europes-Iron-Lady.html 
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krisluke
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28-Oct-2011 23:11
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ENERGY MARKETS December crude oil was lower due to light profit taking overnight but remains above the 38% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 90.56. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional short-term gains are possible. If December extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 95.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 95.32. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 100.08. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.61. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.22. December heating oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Thursday's close above the April-August downtrend line crossing near 308.65 confirms a trend change while opening the door for additional gains this fall. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 295.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-October decline crossing at 313.79. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-October decline crossing at 323.31. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 303.68. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 295.26. December unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 264.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Multiple closes above the May-August downtrend line crossing near 282.18 would confirm a trend change while opening the door for a possible test of August's high crossing at 294.20 later this fall. First resistance is the aforementioned downtrend line crossing near 282.18. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 294.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 264.03. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 259.52. December Henry natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight while extending this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.039 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.039. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.133. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.724. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225. |
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krisluke
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28-Oct-2011 23:09
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CURRENCIES The December Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If December extends the decline off this month's high, the 87% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at 74.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.51 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.54. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.51. First support the 87% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at 74.71. Second support is August's low crossing at 73.90. The December Euro was lower due to profit taking overnight after spiking above the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 142.03 on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off this month's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 143.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 142.03. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 143.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 138.94. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.14. The December British Pound was slightly lower due to light profit taking in overnight trading as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 1.6235 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5743 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.6133. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 1.6235. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5906. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5743. The December Swiss Franc was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional short-term gains are still possible. If December extends the rally off this month's low, the 38% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at .12046 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11157 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at .11682. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at .12046. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11321. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11157. The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally but remains above the 50% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 99.82. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that additional short-term gains are possible. If December extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 101.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 101.27. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 102.89. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.99. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.80. The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past two months. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above August's high crossing at .13180 would renew this year's rally while opening the door into uncharted territory. Closes below this month's low crossing at .12912 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at .13226. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .13069. Second support is this month's low crossing at .12912. |
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krisluke
Supreme |
28-Oct-2011 23:07
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Italy at heart of crisis as borrowing costs climb
Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi talks to the media as he leaves a euro zone leaders summit in Brussels
ROME (Reuters) - Italy's borrowing costs jumped to record levels Friday, underlining its vulnerability at the heart of the euro zone debt crisis and scepticism about whether the struggling government of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi can deliver vital reforms. The 6.06 percent yield paid at an auction of 10-year bonds was the highest since the launch of the euro and not far from the level reached just before the European Central Bank intervened in August to cap Rome's borrowing costs by buying Italian paper. Italy, the euro zone's third largest economy, is once more at the centre of the debt crisis, with fears growing that its borrowing costs could rise to levels that overwhelm the capacity of the bloc to provide support amid chronic political instability in Rome. Berlusconi, tainted by scandal and repeatedly at odds with his coalition allies, has promised European partners a package of measures to spur Italy's stagnant economy and cut its towering public debt, but he has failed to convince markets made sceptical by his repeated failure to deliver reforms. European leaders welcomed a letter of intent on planned reforms delivered by Berlusconi to meet a deadline at a summit this week but emphasised that the measures must now be implemented. " The interest rates that they are paying are punitive," said Monument Securities strategist Marc Oswald. " As far as Italy goes, it is still the bete-noire of the whole euro zone problem." " They are still going to carry on having to pay higher yields unless they come up with reform plans and implement them. But anyone who expresses an optimistic opinion about that is probably looking through rose-tainted glasses," he added. France and Germany have expressed open exasperation at a succession of unfulfilled reform promises by Berlusconi and fear the crisis in Italy could spark a wider emergency that would threaten the very existence of the single currency. REFORM DELAYS Even if a weakened government manages to pass the difficult reforms Berlusconi has promised, most would not come into force until the middle of next year. Markets are unlikely to remain patient during such a long delay. Speaking after Wednesday's European summit, French President Nicolas Sarkozy highlighted fears that the crisis could jump from Greece to the much bigger Italian economy. " If we had allowed Greece to fall, and the speculation shifted on to attack Italy, the markets would then have said we will allow Italy fall too, and that would be the end of the euro," he said in a television interview. As Italy sinks deeper into the debt crisis, tensions in Berlusconi's government have grown sharply, leading to widespread speculation in the press and even among members of his own party that the government will fall soon, leading to elections in 2012, a year ahead of schedule. Berlusconi, whose approval ratings have been torpedoed by a mix of scandal and mounting economic and political problems, rejected speculation that he could be forced to go to early elections. He promised to press on with the promised reforms. Berlusconi said his alliance remained solid with the pro-devolution Northern League party, whose leader Umberto Bossi has expressed open scepticism about the survival of the coalition. " There is an absolute need for political stability and Bossi thinks exactly the same way I do. The pact we have with the League has never been up for discussion," Berlusconi said. " No credible political alternative exists." This week the League rejected plans to hike the pension age to 67, leading to tense late-night negotiations before a compromise was patched up in time to take to a summit in Brussels last Wednesday. Berlusconi said the package of measures presented in Brussels was welcomed by EU partners. But the proposals, including an increase in the pension age, rules making it easier to lay off staff and provisions to place civil servants in special redundancy schemes, have raised fierce opposition from unions and scepticism about whether they will ever be implemented. In the increasingly murky environment of Italian politics, there has been speculation that the package is part of a deal between Berlusconi and Bossi to take the government to the end of the year before triggering new elections in the spring. Friday, Berlusconi dismissed any suggestion of a pact to go to the polls before the scheduled date in 2013 and said an election campaign in the middle of the crisis would be " very seriously damaging to Italy." |
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