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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors Post Reply Rate topic
xing78 Elite	15-Aug-2012 15:44        xing78 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	i am 99.999 percent sure sti will trade below 3,000 point by end of September.... lol iPunter      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:37) Posted: Yes, very good...  sifu has just struck the nail on the head.     The big question is if someone comes out in the open and says there's 95% probabilty         of it moving up, what exactly is the justification for saying so?... chartreader      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:31) Posted: And how you calculate 50%
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chartreader Senior	15-Aug-2012 15:41        chartreader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	that is you making assumption there is only right or wrong ... how if there is the 3rd probability that we never think of? and if there is a 3rd probability would the probability becomes 33:33:33 or could it be 60:20:10 or something else have you heard about the black swan theory? a good read to challenge conventional thinking. ragmop15      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:36) Posted: simple math... 1/2 is 50%     Probabilities:    P(right)   =  # of ways to be right   =  1 total # of  outcome   2    P(wrong)   =  # of ways wrong   =  1 total  # of  outcome   2                                    chartreader      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:31) Posted: And how you calculate 50%
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chartreader Senior	15-Aug-2012 15:38        chartreader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Sound wise, but still doesn't make sense. Anyway, even I think it doesn't make sense, it's still a good discussion :-) iPunter      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:33) Posted: If one says there's 50% chance of it going up... it means there's 50% chance of it going down...     In local parlance it is commonly referred to as something like " LPPL" , but not exactly.           But if one says there's 51% chance of it going up, then one is at least slightly bullishly biased.
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iPunter Supreme	15-Aug-2012 15:37        iPunter About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes, very good...  sifu has just struck the nail on the head.     The big question is if someone comes out in the open and says there's 95% probabilty         of it moving up, what exactly is the justification for saying so?... chartreader      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:31) Posted: And how you calculate 50%? ragmop15      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:30) Posted: i think 50 percent comes from either you are right or wrong. so its quantifiable. unlike the 95% right..how can it be calculated as 95%?
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ragmop15 Member	15-Aug-2012 15:36        ragmop15 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	simple math... 1/2 is 50%     Probabilities:    P(right)   =  # of ways to be right   =  1 total # of  outcome   2    P(wrong)   =  # of ways wrong   =  1 total  # of  outcome   2                                    chartreader      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:31) Posted: And how you calculate 50%? ragmop15      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:30) Posted: i think 50 percent comes from either you are right or wrong. so its quantifiable. unlike the 95% right..how can it be calculated as 95%?
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iPunter Supreme	15-Aug-2012 15:33        iPunter About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If one says there's 50% chance of it going up... it means there's 50% chance of it going down...     In local parlance it is commonly referred to as something like " LPPL" , but not exactly.           But if one says there's 51% chance of it going up, then one is at least slightly bullishly biased.
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chartreader Senior	15-Aug-2012 15:31        chartreader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	And how you calculate 50%? ragmop15      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:30) Posted: i think 50 percent comes from either you are right or wrong. so its quantifiable. unlike the 95% right..how can it be calculated as 95%? chartreader      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:22) Posted: the statements contradict itself. If there is no justification for 95% and it's just opinion, what makes 50% is sensible and reasonable? It is like saying a mouse is not a fish, but an elephant is.
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ragmop15 Member	15-Aug-2012 15:30        ragmop15 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	i think 50 percent comes from either you are right or wrong. so its quantifiable. unlike the 95% right..how can it be calculated as 95%? chartreader      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:22) Posted: the statements contradict itself. If there is no justification for 95% and it's just opinion, what makes 50% is sensible and reasonable? It is like saying a mouse is not a fish, but an elephant is.  iPunter      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:19) Posted: Sifu rutheone  is another one who see it rationally...     The point is by what justification does one say there's 95% probability?... or 10% probability?             The probability figures cited are nothing but simply opinions...without quantifiable rationale                   or statistical reasoning... In other words, it is nothing but  pure speculation, with no substance at all.                           Thus by citing 50% probability, one is being sensible and reasonable at the same time...
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risktaker Supreme	15-Aug-2012 15:30        risktaker About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hehe whatever ..... Humans are humans .... U will never understand I guess .... chartreader      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:22) Posted: the statements contradict itself. If there is no justification for 95% and it's just opinion, what makes 50% is sensible and reasonable? It is like saying a mouse is not a fish, but an elephant is.  iPunter      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:19) Posted: Sifu rutheone  is another one who see it rationally...     The point is by what justification does one say there's 95% probability?... or 10% probability?             The probability figures cited are nothing but simply opinions...without quantifiable rationale                   or statistical reasoning... In other words, it is nothing but  pure speculation, with no substance at all.                           Thus by citing 50% probability, one is being sensible and reasonable at the same time...
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iPunter Supreme	15-Aug-2012 15:28        iPunter About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Declaring 50% probabilty means it is a neutral stance...   it does not attempt to predict the next movement...(there's no bias or contention).     Anyway, what has fish and elephants got to do with this? It's getting more irrational... lol...  chartreader      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:22) Posted: the statements contradict itself. If there is no justification for 95% and it's just opinion, what makes 50% is sensible and reasonable? It is like saying a mouse is not a fish, but an elephant is.  iPunter      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:19) Posted: Sifu rutheone  is another one who see it rationally...     The point is by what justification does one say there's 95% probability?... or 10% probability?             The probability figures cited are nothing but simply opinions...without quantifiable rationale                   or statistical reasoning... In other words, it is nothing but  pure speculation, with no substance at all.                           Thus by citing 50% probability, one is being sensible and reasonable at the same time...
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chartreader Senior	15-Aug-2012 15:22        chartreader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	the statements contradict itself. If there is no justification for 95% and it's just opinion, what makes 50% is sensible and reasonable? It is like saying a mouse is not a fish, but an elephant is.  iPunter      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:19) Posted: Sifu rutheone  is another one who see it rationally...     The point is by what justification does one say there's 95% probability?... or 10% probability?             The probability figures cited are nothing but simply opinions...without quantifiable rationale                   or statistical reasoning... In other words, it is nothing but  pure speculation, with no substance at all.                           Thus by citing 50% probability, one is being sensible and reasonable at the same time...  rutheone1905      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 13:46) Posted: then u r not 95.88% liao.   in statistic u must compare apple to apple. u bet $1 to 100 counters, if u r 95.88% then u will win 95 counters liao how can 5 counters make u bankrupt. when u bet different amount of $ on various counter then ur legendary 95.88% should not stand liao u should take ur overall winning in ur effort over a period of time to compute ur accuracy which in ur below example u r 0%
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TradeChancellor Veteran	15-Aug-2012 15:22        TradeChancellor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	My  take  is Israel wants and needs US support for a strike, but given the presidential elections in Nov, US does not want to commit itself until after the elections. If i were to do a guess-timate on the timing of the attack, it would be after the Nov presidential elections, perhaps around Jan 2013. At that time even if US does not want to commit itself to israel, i think israel would still go ahead because it does not want a radical  iran to have a nuclear bomb targeting them...  rutheone1905      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 15:04) Posted:   2 events just to watch out:  1) Israel has not yet decided whether to strike Iran over its suspected nuclear program, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Tuesday, as Tehran dismissed the threat of an imminent attack.    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1220222/1/.html 2)Japan's coastguard stepped up security Wednesday in waters near disputed islands in the East China Sea as a group of pro-Beijing activists sailed towards the chain.  http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1220263/1/.html
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tedsokny Senior	15-Aug-2012 15:20        tedsokny About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Have a Angkor Beer!"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	my cell 9858...   rotijai  Supreme Posted: 15-Aug-2012 15:12   x 0    x 0 is that another possible 4D number?  9588? :D risktaker           ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 14:40) Posted:  Hmmmmm ..... U don't believed 95.88 ....... ? Ok rutheone1905           ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 13:46) Posted:  then u r not 95.88% liao.   in statistic u must compare apple to apple. u bet $1 to 100 counters, if u r 95.88% then u will win 95 counters liao how can 5 counters make u bankrupt. when u bet different amount of $ on various counter then ur legendary 95.88% should not stand liao u should take ur overall winning in ur effort over a period of time to compute ur accuracy which in ur below example u r 0%
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iPunter Supreme	15-Aug-2012 15:19        iPunter About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Sifu rutheone  is another one who see it rationally...     The point is by what justification does one say there's 95% probability?... or 10% probability?             The probability figures cited are nothing but simply opinions...without quantifiable rationale                   or statistical reasoning... In other words, it is nothing but  pure speculation, with no substance at all.                           Thus by citing 50% probability, one is being sensible and reasonable at the same time...  rutheone1905      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 13:46) Posted: then u r not 95.88% liao.   in statistic u must compare apple to apple. u bet $1 to 100 counters, if u r 95.88% then u will win 95 counters liao how can 5 counters make u bankrupt. when u bet different amount of $ on various counter then ur legendary 95.88% should not stand liao u should take ur overall winning in ur effort over a period of time to compute ur accuracy which in ur below example u r 0%  risktaker      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 13:37) Posted: I can do 100 trade in a month and made 100k but just need 5 trades to wipe out my profit ..... Apple is my example ...... If u hammer big u win big ..... But u lose big too .... If u hammer too big and suay suay those 5 trades all Kenna delist or went diving? ..... I say 95.88% means as long as u profit is win .... Even a dollar is win ..... End of the story is a stop loss is a 100% must for investing stocks and do not over trade ..... Investing in stocks is never 50% if really 50% go casino better ....
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Jollibee3 Member	15-Aug-2012 15:17        Jollibee3 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	8981. love this number, my car plate number. lol
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rotijai Supreme	15-Aug-2012 15:12        rotijai About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	is that another possible 4D number? 9588? :D risktaker      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 14:40) Posted: Hmmmmm ..... U don't believed 95.88 ....... ? Ok rutheone1905      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 13:46) Posted: then u r not 95.88% liao.   in statistic u must compare apple to apple. u bet $1 to 100 counters, if u r 95.88% then u will win 95 counters liao how can 5 counters make u bankrupt. when u bet different amount of $ on various counter then ur legendary 95.88% should not stand liao u should take ur overall winning in ur effort over a period of time to compute ur accuracy which in ur below example u r 0%
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rutheone1905 Veteran	15-Aug-2012 15:04        rutheone1905 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	2 events just to watch out:  1) Israel has not yet decided whether to strike Iran over its suspected nuclear program, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Tuesday, as Tehran dismissed the threat of an imminent attack.    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1220222/1/.html 2)Japan's coastguard stepped up security Wednesday in waters near disputed islands in the East China Sea as a group of pro-Beijing activists sailed towards the chain.  http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1220263/1/.html
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rutheone1905 Veteran	15-Aug-2012 14:56        rutheone1905 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	on the contrary i believe ur 95.88% becos in the world there r alot of experts only i never come across. for shorties it is common to come across 90% accuracy but in longies it is rather rare.   however if one use Isolator method then it is possible to achieve 100% accuracy, haha u should be in the same category with well-respected Isolator.......keep up the good work.
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risktaker Supreme	15-Aug-2012 14:40        risktaker About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hmmmmm ..... U don't believed 95.88 ....... ? Ok rutheone1905      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 13:46) Posted: then u r not 95.88% liao.   in statistic u must compare apple to apple. u bet $1 to 100 counters, if u r 95.88% then u will win 95 counters liao how can 5 counters make u bankrupt. when u bet different amount of $ on various counter then ur legendary 95.88% should not stand liao u should take ur overall winning in ur effort over a period of time to compute ur accuracy which in ur below example u r 0%  risktaker      ( Date: 15-Aug-2012 13:37) Posted: I can do 100 trade in a month and made 100k but just need 5 trades to wipe out my profit ..... Apple is my example ...... If u hammer big u win big ..... But u lose big too .... If u hammer too big and suay suay those 5 trades all Kenna delist or went diving? ..... I say 95.88% means as long as u profit is win .... Even a dollar is win ..... End of the story is a stop loss is a 100% must for investing stocks and do not over trade ..... Investing in stocks is never 50% if really 50% go casino better ....
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tedsokny Senior	15-Aug-2012 14:11        tedsokny About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Have a Angkor Beer!"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	POSB Investment Insights Economic data joins sentiment in driving rally KEY SUMMARY POINTS · Equities rally could continue as positive sentiment surrounding the ECB’s proposed bond purchase plan appears to be holding up for now · Further improvement in US economic data is supporting risk taking sentiment as well but it is too early to conclude that US growth has bottomed · In Asia, China ’s July economic activity numbers were weaker than expected but the likelihood of further policy easing has risen · Risks are rising for the equities rally amidst inter-market divergences The equities and risk-related currencies rally last month could continue this week as positive sentiment triggered by the ECB (European Central Bank) bond purchase proposal holds up. But there are widening inter-market divergences that suggest heightened risk of a pullback. Equities recorded its fourth consecutive week of gains while US Treasuries made notable declines in the past week. While equities and commodity currencies have pushed significantly higher, metal prices and mining stocks have languished. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been pushing higher despite a sluggish Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) which has been struggling sideways, with a downward bias. Meanwhile, the Spanish government’s 10-year bond yield has started to drift up again. IN THE COMING WEEK Malaysia’s second quarter GDP growth figures and CPI inflation number for July are due this week. DBS expects the GDP to grow 4.6% YoY, a tad slower than the 4.7% growth recorded in the first quarter. We expect the inflation to inch higher to 1.7%, from 1.6% previously. Full year inflation is expected to average just 2%. ECONOMIC DATA REVIEW Taiwan’s July trade data revealed that exports contracted 11.6% YoY (-4.8% MoM), far worse than the consensus forecast of -7.7%. The contraction was led by falling demand from the world’s three major economies – US (-20% YoY), Europe (-14.4%) and China (including Hong Kong , -11%). These three markets account for 60-70% of Taiwan ’s total export demand. The weak results support DBS’ view that growth remains weak in 3Q and the timing of a recovery will be delayed to 4Q. Based on the sluggishness in key indicators for July including trade and PMI, we recently have cut the GDP growth estimate for 2012 to 1.3% from 2%.
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