NOVEMBER PREVIEW

October 2012 has 20 trading days, one half-day session and a public holiday. November starts the best six months on the DOW and S& P and the best eight months on NASDAQ. It is also the first month in the best three consecutive months of the trading year. November is the second most bullish month of the year on S& P and DOW’s third most bullish month. This year, November’s key date has to be the Election Day on Tuesday 6th.

November Trivia

• The first trading day of November has been down 5 of the last 7
• The first week of November is reliably bullish
• Sunday 4th November, Daylight Saving Time ends
• The second week is rather flat and down
• Tuesday 6 November is Election Day
• Monday before November Expiration has seen the DOW go down 7 of the last 12
• The third week is mildly bullish
• The week before Thanksgiving has been up on the DOW 15 of the last 18
• November Expiration Day is bullish with the DOW up 7 of the last 9
• Thursday 22 November is Thanksgiving Day – Markets are closed
• Friday 23 November is a shortened trading day - Markets will close at 13:00 EST
• The day before and the day after Thanksgiving are very bullish with their combined losses being only 12 in the last 59 years
• November finishes well in its final week
• But the last day is very bearish with the S& P down 9 of the last 13

Commodities

• Crude continues to be weak till December
• Nat Gas will depend on how temperatures drop during this period
• Gold starts strengthening in mid-month till January
• Silver also starts strengthening in mid-month
• Copper continues its weakness into January
• Soya tops out in November along with Wheat
• Corn continues to strength since October and should run through to early May
• Cocoa bottoms out in November and reverses into its seasonally most bullish period till March
• Coffee consolidates and Sugar tops out

After Sandy shut down the market for two days, October finally finished with a loss on its last day of trading and a loss for the month. I must confess that what I though would be a bullish last two months of the year is now a second though. A lot will be needed to bring back that faith as the market reels from shit-poor earnings and ever-weakening economic data. I truly wonder if the market has anything left or whether we witnessing the end to the denial and the start of that inevitable decline that has been long overdue.

More on : http://www.conradalvinlim.com/  ( The Pattern Trader blog)