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27 10 2010

Tags: MAS

WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG

WEDNESDAY, 27 OCTOBER 2010 12:02

Share this  Digg  Del.icio.us  StumbleUpon  Netscape  Yahoo  Technorati  Googlize this  Facebook Export PDF Print E-mail Singapore’s central bank said Asia faces growing risks from capital inflows and called for “close monitoring” by policy makers to avoid a disorderly reversal. The region’s “brighter” economic outlook compared with the rest of the world may result in higher inflationary pressures, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, or MAS, said in a twice-yearly review today. Singapore’s economy, which may hit a “soft patch” in the coming quarters, should keep expanding, it said.   “Inflationary pressures remain significant in Asia,” the central bank said. “Large capital inflows into the region have continued to fuel activities and prices in the asset markets, which could also pose a risk to the inflation outlook.”   Growth in Asia is outpacing the rest of the world, prompting policy makers to raise interest rates ahead of their counterparts in the U.S. and Europe to fight inflation and prevent asset price bubbles. Singapore’s central bank signaled this month it will allow faster gains in its dollar, its main tool to manage inflation, after undertaking a one-time revaluation in April.   “The policy decision was made on the assessment that the level of economic activity would remain high, as the domestic economy would continue to expand, albeit at a slower and more sustainable pace,” the central bank said. “Compared to this year, when the manufacturing sector experienced a sharp surge in activity, gross domestic product growth next year will be driven more by the services sector.”   OVERSEAS DEMAND Singapore has remained vulnerable to fluctuations in overseas demand for manufactured goods even after the government boosted financial services and tourism. The International Monetary Fund this month lowered its 2011 forecast for world growth, citing high unemployment, public debt and fragile banking systems as risks.   “The outlook for Singapore’s key trading partners will remain uneven,” according to the report. “Notably, the advanced economies will continue to face significant hurdles in transiting from public sector-driven to private demand-led growth. While the risk of the developed economies slipping back into recession has generally receded, final demand is likely to remain sluggish.”   The city’s two casino resorts run by Genting Singapore Plc and Las Vegas Sands Corp. have attracted millions to its gaming centers, while employment growth is boosting spending at malls and restaurants. The central bank reiterated the government’s forecast for a 2010 expansion of as much as 15%, and said the $182 billion economy will “grow in line with its potential” in 2011, without providing figures.   CURRENCY GAINS The Singapore dollar has gained more than 8% against the U.S. currency this year. At its April monetary policy review, the central bank said it would shift the local dollar to a stronger range to trade in and sought an appreciation thereafter, the first such combined move in its history.   On Oct. 14, the central bank said it will steepen and widen the currency’s trading band while continuing to seek a “modest and gradual appreciation.”   The Singapore dollar “has fluctuated in the upper half of the exchange-rate policy band” since the April policy review, the monetary authority said in today’s report.   Singapore’s inflation last month accelerated to the highest level since January 2009, rising 3.7% from a year earlier. Consumer price gains are forecast to quicken to about 4% by the end of the year, the central bank said today.   Prices will average between 2.5% and 3% in 2010 and will be between 2% and 3% next year, it said. Inflation may be driven by higher global commodity prices and domestic labor and accommodation costs, the central bank said.   “Given these upside pressures to inflation, MAS deemed it appropriate to tighten monetary policy at this juncture to dampen external inflation as well as to provide the necessary macroeconomic restraint on domestic economic activity, thereby ensuring that cost and price pressures do not become entrenched,” according to the report.

The dodgy bet on austerity

Britain, and the world, cannot afford not to have another stimulus

Joseph Stiglitz

Austerity converts downturns into recessions, recessions into depressions.

The confidence fairy that the austerity advocates claim will appear never does, partly perhaps because the downturns mean that the deficit reductions are always smaller than was hoped.

Large capital inflows a risk

Rachel Kelly

rachel@mediacorp.com.sg

SINGAPORE

Inflation in China — Asia’s largest economy and the world’s second biggest — accelerated to the fastest pace in almost two years in September, according to data out yesterday. September’s inflation rate was 3.6 per cent over a year earlier, compared to August’s 3.5 per cent and well above the 3 per cent official target.

Helping drive overall prices higher was a 6.1 per cent jump in food costs due to shortages of vegetables and other items.

China — the world’s fastest growing major economy – is sucking foreign capital in billions of dollars at a go. And too much money — together with the domestic stimulus — is fuelling a property bubble which has prompted the Chinese authorities to take steps to prevent overheating.

World Bank’s chief economist for East Asia & the Pacific, Mr Vikram Nehru, said:

“In China the authorities have used a variety of measures to try and curb credit growth. The bulk of those measures have been through administrative means, specific targets and so forth for banks.”

“So this is part of a more concertive action by the Chinese to take some of the froth off the real estate sector and try to stabilise asset prices.”

Other countries in East Asia are also grappling with large and rapid inflows of foreign capital and are adopting different strategies to deal with the challenge.

Mr Nehru said that some of these countries were “simply allowing their currencies to appreciate and that is one way to try and absorb the inflationary pressures that might be coming through these capital inflows”.

He added that some countries had been intervening in foreign exchange markets to try and reduce the volatility of these inflows or were keeping a close eye to see what was happening in the banking systems.— Too much of foreign capital is too much of a good thing. The World Bank says a risk to economies in East Asia is the return of large capital inflows, which are driving up prices and causing inflationary pressure.

G20 finance chiefs aim to avoid currency wars

SEOUL

Finance ministers and central bankers will say after talks conclude in Gyeongju, South Korea, tomorrow that they want a “more market-determined exchange rate system that minimises adverse effects of excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates”, a G20 official said yesterday, citing a draft statement and speaking on condition of anonymity.

G20 policymakers are convening amid concern countries are pursuing weaker exchange rates as a route to stronger economic growth, either by limiting currency gains with interventions like Japan or by discussing possible monetary easing, as the United States and the United Kingdom have done.

The risk is of a protectionist backlash that curbs economic growth, with emerging markets including Brazil and South Korea already introducing capital controls to stay competitive.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in a

Mr Geithner delayed a report on foreign exchange markets last week, saying the yuan remained undervalued and that China needed to show continued commitment to allowing the currency to rise against the US dollar over time. The yuan has risen about 2 per cent since a two-year peg against the greenback was scrapped on June 19.

People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said his nation needed to avoid the “shock therapy” of excessive yuan appreciation and “very fast” gains probably would not end global economic imbalances.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao also warned of the dangers of a rapid rise, saying yuan gains of 20 to 40 per cent would exacerbate unemployment and cause social upheaval.

Mr Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman and Co in New York, said the US is trying to forge a united front among the G7 nations in urging China and other emerging market nations to let their currencies rise.

“How the dollar does against the euro and sterling might be different than how the dollar does against Asia,” he said. Mr Chandler predicted there would be increasing pressure on China at the G20, without an international agreement on intervention such as the Plaza Accord in 1985.

[Xtremely OUTdated  1985 AccOrd    ? ? ? ?]

[COmplacency  IncOmpetence  NeglIgence  ExUberance    ? ? ? ?]

Canada wants to “address, with our G20 colleagues, mechanisms to enhance and timelines to enhance the flexibility of currencies”, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said yesterday.

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said finance chiefs need to reach a “bargain” to coordinate economic policies, though real agreement would require a “revolution”.

The US backs current-account targets to gauge whether individual trade surpluses or deficits are sustainable, and Mr Geithner wants the International Monetary Fund to take on a larger role of economic surveillance. — Group of 20 finance chiefs plan to say members will refrain from the “competitive undervaluation” of their currencies in a bid to soothe trade tensions before they derail the world economy.Wall Street Journal interview published yesterday that China needs to let the yuan rise so other emerging market nations will feel comfortable letting market forces affect their currencies, repeating a theme from speeches he gave earlier this month. He also said that “major currencies” were “roughly in alignment”.Bloomberg

Elderly and exploited

Low-wage workers often subjected to unreasonable rules

Letter from Arthur Lim

I READ with sympathy the letter from Ms Jessie Chong about her father’s experience upon landing a job as a cleaner (“Clean up treatment of cleaners”, Oct 19).

I am not surprised such treatment exists and could be commonplace, especially for senior citizens employed in the cleaning industry.

I have met some elderly cleaners, working for a pittance, who told me that they are expected to remain standing throughout their work hours, even if their assigned areas are spotlessly clean.

I once asked one such cleaner: “The toilet is so well maintained and there is nothing more to clean. Why don’t you just take a seat and rest for a while, and get up to clean the area when the need arises?”

His answer: “No, I can’t because if the supervisor sees me I’ll be fined $50.” When asked, he told me he was paid about $800 a month.

Imagine, if he sat down 16 times in the course of a month, he wouldn’t be paid a cent. What right does the cleaning company have to impose such a penalty?

Of course, everyone likes a clean toilet but expecting a cleaner to stand still like a robot is clearly thoughtless exploitation.

The authorities encourage the elderly to work into their golden years but more can be done to address such abuse.

There must be legislation in place to ensure employers do not have the right to arbitrarily impose financial penalties. If such penalties are imposed there should be a limit to the fine, based on the monthly salary.

Many employers get away with such rules because many of their workers do not know the legality of such practices, thereby opening the door to abuse.

The authorities should take the lead to ensure such abuse is not condoned and act on it rigorously when a complaint is made about a company.

A million protest pensions plan as fuel shortages bite

A million protest pensions plan as fuel shortages bite

PARIS (AFP) - – Strikes threatening to paralyse France's economy looked set to rumble on into Wednesday after a million people took to the street for their right to retire at 60 and fuel shortages began to bite.

Clashes erupted between youths and riot police in several towns Tuesday and shops in the city of Lyon were looted as workers and students came out in force around the country to protest President Nicolas Sarkozy's unpopular reform.

Sarkozy refused to back down however and leading unions in some sectors including airports called for stoppages to continue on Wednesday, while oil refineries remained blocked, hit by a week of strikes.

The DGAC aviation authority said a quarter of flights from Orly, Paris's second-biggest airport, would be cancelled on Wednesday morning but did not detail further disruption at the main hub, Charles de Gaulle.

Facts: France's biggest demos

Around one in three flights at Roissy-Charles de Gaulle and regional airports were cancelled on Tuesday, while one in three filling stations ran out of fuel, the government said.

The latest day of protests, the sixth since September, drew around 1.1 million people onto the streets, police said, slightly fewer than the 1.23 million on the last comparable day, October 12.

The CGT, France's biggest union, told AFP it estimated overall turnout at 3.5 million, equal to its estimate for October 12. Unions' estimates have habitually been several times higher than those of police.

With more than 200 protests on Tuesday, all 12 French oil refineries shut down by strikes and truckers blocking roads, Sarkozy instructed the cabinet to draw up a plan to stop France grinding to a standstill.

Environment and Transport Minister Jean-Louis Borloo said that "a little under 4,000 petrol stations are awaiting deliveries." There are around 12,500 filling stations in France.

French fuel and heating federation FF3C said the "extremely worrying" situation "should definitely be called a shortage", while the International Energy Agency said France has "sufficient stocks" to deal with the situation.

Authorities in Normandy requisitioned 12 petrol stations for use by rescue and emergency services, while Prime Minister Francois Fillon said a third of departments or local administrations were experiencing fuel shortages.

Fillon chaired a meeting with several ministers and oil industry officials on how to deal with the crisis and ministers later held talks with Sarkozy.

Fillon's office said the government would ensure access to fuel depots, many of which are blocked by strikers, and that distributors would pool their fuel and trucks to help needy stations.

The interior minister promised tough action as clashes erupted anew outside a secondary school in Nanterre, near Paris, where youths burned a car and threw rocks at riot police for the second day in a row.

Police fired tear gas and arrested nine youth protestors in Lyon who had overturned cars and set one alight. At least five shops were later looted, police said.

Nine people were arrested Tuesday in Paris, police said.

The ministry said that 1,158 troublemakers had been arrested at demonstrations since the start of the week, 163 of them on Tuesday morning.

The powerful CGT union's transport section called for their strike action to be renewed on Wednesday, encompassing airport staff, air traffic controllers, public transport workers and employees of national railways operator SNCF.

Unions want to force Sarkozy to abandon a bill to raise the minimum retirement age to 62, which is in the final days of its journey through a parliament in which the right-wing leader enjoys a comfortable majority.

Most French back the current protests, with a poll published Monday in the popular Le Parisien daily showing that 71 percent of those asked expressed either support or sympathy for the movement.

A poll published Tuesday showed that Sarkozy's approval rating dropped this month to its lowest in three years at 30 percent, two percentage points less than when the main pension protests started in September.