Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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About elfinchilde
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| 26-Feb-2008 13:13 |
SGX
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SGX
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large lots selling. small lots buying. buy Q is very thin, hence the southwards movement. From current market depth: lidding at 8.6, 101 lots queued to sell there. Buy support is very, very thin. 8.49 is "kind of" a first support, 79 lots queuing to buy there. Need to be careful of margin induced sell down. The viable support by fibonacci and charting is ~8.1. Be aware that SGX is currently forming an M top formation, which is bearish. If break below 8.1, it'll likely dip much further. Not vested; take care. |
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| 26-Feb-2008 01:07 |
Others
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DOW
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lol. this is a heavy week for US news. at 330 pm US time there'll be the existing home sales report. so huge intraday swings will be the norm this week. yea, go to sleep! nites! |
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| 26-Feb-2008 01:05 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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mazimaz10, perhaps it is best that you make up your own mind on this counter? if you have held it for a long time since 2+, and have spare cash, then may not be worthwhile to cut loss. It all depends on your buy px, your holding period, and cash available. hi cyjjerry, yeps, it's quite spectacular earnings that they've reported. the only thing is, it's still overpriced by standard FA terms. In volatile markets, there's a return to fair value, read as 2-3x book to price ratio: so yea, very strong book order (7 bil) and profits are undeniable (cash flow up 220%). but looking ahead: liabilities have increased, debt has also increased. it's a pace by pace match of positives and negatives. so back to FA basics: NAV of yzj in S$ is ~ 25.3c (RMB 126.61c). --at 3x book to price, fair value is hence abt 76c. EPS is 28.3c RMB (equivalent ~ 5.6c in S$). So assuming average PE ratio of 20x, fair value is given as 1.12. Which is probably why Fidelity sold before the news released. (Fidelity mgmt is one of the biggest global fund mgmt houses ard). If you check substantial shareholders (SGX announcement), Fidelity sold on 20th feb, before the news today. (the selling today is somewhat fishy too, if you ask me. too many large lots being released. ) Hence a strong baseline support would be around 88c-95c, its IPO price. This would be fundamentally and technically supported. Note: the above is via FA reading. By technicals, shortterm (ie, <10 days): your support is at 1.2 and 1.16. resistance at 1.38, then 1.45. williams shows -89 oversold. so it's likely to do a tech rebound soon. happy hunting! caveat applies as usual. cheers! |
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| 26-Feb-2008 00:41 |
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don't dream, people. follow the trend. this is a trader's market. volatility is a trader's friend. there's been 'operations' on quite a few counters already. concluded ones: jade, ara, centillion, tat hong, ferrochina, ezra, golden agri, wilmar. biosensors. just to name a few. ones to watch out for now (just my opinion): Gen Int, tat hong. ferrochina. note of the three: tat hong is near -100 oversold on williams. so a swing either way is possible now. GIL has some breakout due. think may dip to 58 then up to 63 again. alternatively, the 61.5-62 will hold, which gives a higher price range trading. FC is waiting. if can break 1.7 on increasing buy vols, next resistances are at 1.8 and 2.07. cheers! note: concluded play in some. currently vested in some, not vested in others. fyi only; usual caveat applies. |
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| 25-Feb-2008 17:45 |
Centillion^
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E-waste recyling the Next Big Thing or already is?
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*puzzled* erm, ipunter? on your 6th feb post (as attached below), you said you dumped at 14.5c. then you just said 0.45 'only recently'. but the highest centillion ever touched in the past year was 0.22 on 18th jul? *blur* anyhow, not vested. nor am i interested in debates. just fyi for those in. need to be very careful with this counter. cheers! |
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| 25-Feb-2008 16:43 |
Centillion^
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E-waste recyling the Next Big Thing or already is?
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distribution going on. very cannily done, too. single buys of 1 lot interspersed with sells of 500 to 1000 lots. so the px appears to hold constant, but it's actually selling going on. take care. |
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| 25-Feb-2008 16:12 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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careful. large lots selling for some reason. had 1,000 and 500 lots thrown at 1.24 earlier. 1.2 support, then 1.16. not vested. fyi only. btw: there's major play going on in some counters. operators out and about. take care. |
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| 25-Feb-2008 15:24 |
Tat Hong
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Tat Hong Growing to a Global Player
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supports: 2.31, then 2.2, and 2.04. resistance: 2.78, then 3.05 if can break through on increasing buy vol. at williams -100 already. interesting. likely to be a large movement either way. |
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| 23-Feb-2008 15:02 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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thanks jalan tiong. :) tip for you (caveat applies as usual): quite a few counters are range-bound; so it's perfect for trading. what you need to watch out for is the shifting of the entire range. which can lead to massive up swing, or down swing. eg, currently, ke's lower range is 1.75 to 2.03. middle range is ~2.05 to 2.29. higher range is 2.26-2.75. one just needs to use williams for this counter. buy when >-90 oversold. sell when <-10 overbought. very regular, holding period of abt a mth. and doesn't need much watching. short of the sudden mitsubishi offer. |
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| 23-Feb-2008 13:01 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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just a question: is anyone else in this counter, and needing TA for it? cos if i'm the only one holding onto gold and no one else needs TA help (subject to usual caveat emptor of course), then i won't post on it anymore. must say, i love this counter though. hehe. cheers! |
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| 23-Feb-2008 12:58 |
Cedar Strategic
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It's Time Again
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hi, yes, shplayer is right: if a person genuinely intends to acquire the company, then, he'd have made an UNconditional offer, and he'd have 'talked down' the company, so that more people would want to sell their stocks to him. there is perhaps no sense in talking of 'gold mine' and great value, which would induce people to hold onto the stock, when the acquirer's aim is to get them to sell it to him. yea chinchye, i took advantage of the run-up to 23c that day: sold at 22 and 22.5. good enough. be careful in this counter. not vested anymore. cheers! :) |
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| 21-Feb-2008 15:41 |
User Research/Opinions
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Budget 2008
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aiyah. s'pore will likely win the bid to host the youth olympics lah. they're saving moscow for the real one. yea, there are pros and cons everywhere. the difference in europe/america is the land. it's large enough so that there's space for everyone. don't like the city? stay in the suburbs, or in the rural areas. here, there's no option for that. consider how many of our kids have even seen a live chicken, cow, or sheep. but yes. haha, we do complain too much. general state of discontent, i guess. like being in water that is not boiling hot, but just discomfiting. |
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| 20-Feb-2008 21:45 |
User Research/Opinions
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Budget 2008
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eh well. i'm almost certain i'll emigrate. after my experience in a govt job here....total personality misfit with this country. >~< will see how it goes... but certainly i do not intend to retire in singapore. the pace, the rudeness of the people, the constriction of this society...it is not worth it. Plus, how many singaporeans are born singaporean now anyway? Those who can leave have left or are planning to go; who's left? the poor and the wealthy elite. Plus a lot of foreign talent in. Doesn't seem to be any place for the singaporean who's not in either class. |
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| 19-Feb-2008 16:42 |
Cedar Strategic
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It's Time Again
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sold! in mandarin: yi3 fang2 ye4 chang2 meng4 duo1. cheers to the rest still in. has been a good two months. heehee. huat ahh...to all of you. :) |
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| 18-Feb-2008 22:07 |
Cedar Strategic
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It's Time Again
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hullo chinchye. not quite sure about ocbc buyout incurring transaction costs (btw, ocbc is just brokering the deal, the real guy buying is anthony soh himself), but yes, if you sell on market, you'd incur the usual brokerage charges. am a techie tho, so i'd rather opt to sell immediately rather than wait a few mths for the $$. it's what i call cantilevering. cos my capital is relatively small, so by moving fast in and out of counters, i make more than by riding one/a few counters full wave. plus. i have min brokerage charges anyway. that's just my style though. if you haven't got any counters on your buy list, and don't need the $$, can always sit in. :) |
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| 18-Feb-2008 21:25 |
Cedar Strategic
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It's Time Again
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not sure if they plan to delist. but the ocbc announcement states that the letter will be sent to all shareholders not less than 14 days from date of announcement and not more than 21 days from date. ie, btwn 14-21 days you'll get the letter. it's like ascott all over again lah. no wonder they shorted the counter down to 8.5c, then massive buy ups in the last two weeks. well. just sit and see. they need 90%. queue the sell at 22.5c (or 22c if you're feeling generous) tmrw. i bought my last lots just 15 min before the suspension that day. heehee. huat ahhhh..... 
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| 18-Feb-2008 19:44 |
Cedar Strategic
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It's Time Again
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http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_1F89414A1A2F55B6482573F3003F6F08/$file/VoluntaryConditionalOffer.pdf?openelement as xiaomage said. ocbc making unconditional cash offer for jade. good news. HEEHEE. |
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| 18-Feb-2008 18:53 |
Cedar Strategic
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It's Time Again
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fyi for the vested. http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_7D20CBFFB24E9D8A482573F3002A6428/$file/ProposedNotesIssueDeferment.pdf?openelement |
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| 16-Feb-2008 22:23 |
Others
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No money to buy roses on Valentine's Day!
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oop. pai seh. quote wrong: cancel out the 'to'. "Man, if you ever gotta ask, it means you ain't ever gonna know." nites all!
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| 16-Feb-2008 22:16 |
Others
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No money to buy roses on Valentine's Day!
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lol. asterisk, it's ok. just difference of opinion. as louis armstrong said about jazz, "Man, if you ever gotta to ask, it means you ain't ever gonna know." The same can be said of love. Love's not love if it requires explication, if it requires demonstration, to outsiders. You never have to ask a flower how it blooms, isn't it? It just is. It's a sad life that has to question and doubt the existence of selflessness. So. you know it, i know it, that's all that matters. Equanimity. There's no need to debate. Peace, little one. 
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