Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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About elfinchilde
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| 28-Feb-2008 19:59 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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yep punter, you're right about the first part. that's why i'd prefer to be my own trader, rather than just buying/selling for others....wldn't think it's superfluous/inconsequential to build experience, though. All part of the learning experience, esp when one's young. Arbitrager...how shall i put my guess....would jackson tai be of meaning to your current pasture? ;) depends on what i wanna do. depends on what the position can offer....only one local house that i may be interested in joining. and then, haha, for reasons that had better not be said in an online forum. *eyes watching* 
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| 28-Feb-2008 19:18 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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lol. yea, you two better not spill so much online. at least i'm a 'free agent' and not linked to any house....yet. :P now, to figure out where eldarchen is from...there's one house i'm interested in joining..... no prob offering advice...words are always free after all. haha. as long as people make up their own minds after, no prob for me. I cut my teeth here, after all. learnt a lot from the experts here, singaporegal, shplayer, ipunter etc. and still learning. :) |
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| 28-Feb-2008 19:15 |
Entertainment
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Jemahh Islamiyah leader escapes from Whitley Rd!
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bwah haha! CWQuah, good one! and argh. yes. i hope they find him soon.... |
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| 28-Feb-2008 19:14 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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man...now i'm feeling paiseh. didn't know so many experts here. 
ahahahha! arbitrager, you're from the same house as one of my brokers!  |
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| 28-Feb-2008 17:26 |
Ferrochina
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Ferrochina
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hey, could we shift this to the fellowship thread so as not to derail the FC thread? thanks. help much appreciated. :) |
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| 28-Feb-2008 17:21 |
Ferrochina
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Ferrochina
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thanks arbitrager and eldarchen. yea, have that brochure already. need to check it out. either 1 or 5 of your options. will it help any if i say i survived last year and this jan-feb? (and in fact making profits, despite not being able to short)... 
don't quite want to do futures, altho if it helps secure a future, i guess it's just a couple more exams (kiasu singaporean. heehee). I'm definite in that i want to do only equities, and i just wanna trade. oh man. are ALL of you in the trade? 
paiseh. that means i've been talking to ppl who know.  |
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| 28-Feb-2008 16:40 |
Ferrochina
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Ferrochina
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hi arbitrager, ah good, someone who knows. have been trying to find out: which IBS modules do i need to take, if i should wish to trade only securities, globally, perhaps with an option into fund mgmt? i know for sure one of the 1s (A or B?), and 6. The question is, is it necessary to take 2 and 7 (for futures)? 3 would be likely so as to allow option into fund mgmt. Actually, i just want to be a trader. as in, they give me a fixed sum, i play, and whatever i make is the profit for them, i take my bonus accordingly. are there such traders about? i have a sense that's what the SG guy did (before he died big on the markets). |
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| 28-Feb-2008 16:23 |
Ferrochina
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Ferrochina
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no prob...careful, counters are not holding up very well. eldarchen....define lobang....what, where who etc.... |
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| 28-Feb-2008 16:19 |
First Resources
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First Resources
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and the shorting on the CPO plays is in progress. dang, i wish i had CFD.. |
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| 28-Feb-2008 15:19 |
Ferrochina
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Ferrochina
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??? what chaikin line coupled with bar chart? o_0 the chaikin line (on SJ) is separate from the bar chart.... it measures buying/selling pressure. line goes up means more buyers. line goes down means more sellers. The value is used relatively, as an indicator. eg, if within two days it suddenly dips from say, +100k to -700k, while price is still constant, that's definitely a signal of bad things to come. note: not all stocks respond to chaikin though. yzj is one of those. yah. i wanna become a trader. can anyone tell me which IBS exams to pass? hehe. anyhow, FC appears (for now) to be holding up the 1.37. now that it's broken the 1.35 resistance (note: post of 1035 am was for intraday) that means range bound 1.35 to 1.4 for now. for longer term: watch friday; will be crucial. |
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| 28-Feb-2008 15:00 |
Ferrochina
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Ferrochina
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yes. if you look at the BUSD, esp if you can track counterparty. BBs are mainly selling. now and then you see a random large (50-100 lots) buy up. that's either to maintain the price, or some gungho retailer. But when the large lots consistently show sell, then that's the direction it's headed. Sometimes it's short covering, sometimes it's gungho retailers, sometimes it's an attempt to not let the price drop down obviously. Most clearly seen recently on centillion. Large lots thrown at 3c, but in between, single lot buy ups at 3.5. Common sense: who on earth would buy single lots of a 3.5c counter?! the brokerage would kill. Hence: likely a cover up. Large scale distribution, masked by constant price due to single/small lot buy ups. BUSD will show all this. FA = fundamental analysis. FC is a growth stock, hence its PE ratio and book to price is relatively at a premium (as are the other S stocks) compared to other stocks. Fundamentally, this is presumably justified because such counters grow fast, and justify their high forward PEs with high profitability and earnings in future (think 50% growth etc). However, in a volatile market, there's a return to safety. ie, on strict FA terms, not more than 3x book to price ratio. Most would sell at 3x book to price ratio, preferring 2-2.5x as a better gauge. So FC's fundamentals: from their last AR: 3Q results in 31 Oct 07: net profit increased an eye opening 87%. net assets 3.6bil from 2.9bil the previous 3Q. However, as with yzj, debt has pace-by-paced increased, and cash flow decreased. EPS 23.09 cf to 15.66 previous Q. (in RMB) NAV 311.64 vs 239.15. All respectable figures. Only thing is: volatile market. flight to safety. growth stocks are no longer attractive. Hence, highest fair value (by FA) for FC is 3x NAV, ie ~1.87. By technicals, this would be a strong resistance. It appears however to be rerating back to 2x NAV. hence the stronger support, fundamentally and technically, is ~1.25. (note intraday range of FC is approx 10c on ave.) |
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| 28-Feb-2008 14:46 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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seeing a lot of BB work on a lot of counters. slow distribution masked by one/small lot buy ups. when you track counterparty, it's consistent who's selling. All the foreign names. Plus some local boys. Take care. In short term play, when (the same) analysts issue a spate of buy calls following a sudden run up, market still holds constant, vols thin, dow futures down, see busd consistently showing large sells but small buys, thin vols, only two words: siam ahhh. don't know how today will close, but tomorrow likely down. caveat emptor. |
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| 28-Feb-2008 14:32 |
Synear
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Dare to try it?
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if you can, naked short. hold to tomorrow. tmrw likely blood on the streets. seeing signs already. haha. good luck! (longists, don't kill me). not vested. |
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| 28-Feb-2008 10:46 |
Ferrochina
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Ferrochina
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haha. that's the stock market for you. we're ever at the mercy of the BBs. that's why elfie tries to even up the score by (trying) to help the small fries. just feel it isn't fair. plus, it's simply knowledge. so arm yourself with TA and/or FA. it's the best tool for survival. no prob. just remember that i'm not responsible for your losses or gains. heehee. cheers! |
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| 28-Feb-2008 10:42 |
Keppel
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Keppel Corp
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haha. i'll be the first to admit that on the markets, i have no shame. i'd run before my butt was kicked. :P techs are provided for the general public; caveat emptor applies as usual tho. pls just take it as an opinion. and do remember your own style and personality while trading. :) elf moves fast, which may not be for everyone. sometimes, long term holding is less stressful. :) |
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| 28-Feb-2008 10:40 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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not today though. believe 1.1 will hold for today. 1.13-1.16 is the 'battle zone'. depends on who wins. a lot of operators in this counter: they don't queue, so difficult to predict exact movement. be careful of last minute closing bell swings. likely see shortists scrambling to cover there. think the market may conceivably take both shorts and longs on this counter. |
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| 28-Feb-2008 10:35 |
Ferrochina
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Ferrochina
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tech updates for today (short term), on busd and market depth: sellers outweigh buyers, about 3: 2. large lots selling, but also have some large lots buying: these appear to be random, ie, retailers. too many small retailers going in; but it's not time to buy yet. 1.33 is the immediate support; thereaft, about 1.3. The next support is 1.18. immediate resistance at 1.35, then again at 1.4. would expect today to close about 1.3. take care. |
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| 28-Feb-2008 10:24 |
Entertainment
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Jemahh Islamiyah leader escapes from Whitley Rd!
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ALL singaporeans very confident of the police etc??? who did they interview? o_0 likely ran off to malaysia already..... hope they get him back soon. >~< |
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| 28-Feb-2008 10:23 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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fyi market depth and busd update: sell queues too strong. shortists and genuine distribution at work. do not believe 1.14 and 1.13 will hold (1000 lots Qing to buy there). the viable support is 1.1. be careful of break below that. ie, those intending to go long, don't buy yet. am seeing too many small buy ups. |
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| 28-Feb-2008 10:17 |
Aqua-Terra
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Marine stocks
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lol. terence, fundamentals don't quite matter in a shaky market. if funds sell, any counter, no matter how good the results, will drop. results matter in a recovery, when people choose what to buy. cheers. |
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