Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 08-Mar-2008 16:05 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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..actually, temasek has made some bad investments in the past. just that they have the benefit of having a large fund size (they're playing with our money, afterall  ).
and yea. 10 years later, the odds of having an improvement are actually the same. 50%. it doesn't mean one's better at investment. it can just mean you got stuck and had to wait for the next bull run to bail out. |
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| 08-Mar-2008 16:03 |
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No more hopes for China QDII fund investing in STI
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oh ok. so that's why the tech picture was what it is, and the global BBs were consistently selling. i was puzzled as to the reason. just my interpretation based on technical facts: money flow has been out of s'pore. Earlier last year/this year, foreign funds poured in, mainly to the blues and especially the S plays, because they assumed the QDII funds would come in and rerate the stocks as growth stocks (ie, PE >50x is more than acceptable. which was what yzj, cosco etc were trading at). but now with the delay, it means an FA fair value rerating back to normal fundamental values: ie, max 2x PE ratio. which would explain the massive selling by foreign funds of STI stocks. coupled with the US instability....eldar, would advise caution. China's SWF has to say what they are saying to avoid a massive panic in HSI and the region. Note the wording: "doesn't rule out". It is actually non commital. it also doesn't say "doesn't rule IN". ie, a delay of QDII is likely. |
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| 08-Mar-2008 00:48 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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hi nono, because i'm able to track counterparty. have played yzj about 4-5 times to date. each time when i buy, it's from someone big. and in sell-down quotes (ie, large lots selling). and the dumping is too large to be just local BBs. cos count the sum of $$ that has changed hands. money flow is finite after all. you have an estimate of the regular flow of money in one counter; and if that suddenly surpasses (flies in or out), it's the surest sign of something wrong. if they got locked in, it'd be at preferential IPO price. which i assume is 95c? yzj, cosco, yanlord etc S share plays were the darlings of foreign funds just last year. they're massively throwing them now cos of revised estimates, plus need to raise funds back home. the comment abt china fund mgmrs: it came from the news, actually. that the managers are newbies on the scene, so the SCI drops has caught even them by surprise. essentially, china funds just came about only one, two years ago; most only know the boom. so that is relatively inexperienced. anyhow: the relevance is: because of their actions, SCI moves in a very volatile manner, which affects the region as much as the dow. so there are two, if not three weathervanes for the STI: SCI, HSI and DJIA. nikkei no longer counts, cos that's already in bear market. And HSI is affected by SCI. so it's a very linked thing. which is likely why, even when HSI goes up, STI is flat or down: global managers are locking in STI first, since we are more globally exposed, whereas HSI has the china funds to support (ie, ride your winners, lock in the uncertain market first). why i'm concerned is cos, for past 2-3 weeks already, when i track counterparties, it is no longer KH, KE, OCBC, phillips etc appearing as my counterparty: it is the global boys more and more. they're selling out s'pore. some accts can monitor global fund flow: sometimes it appears in the straits times, too. ya can see it. |
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| 07-Mar-2008 22:44 |
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DOW
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economy is not expected to be good for 2H of this year and next, zanetti. it is whispered in the upper echelons of business and govt already. you didn't hear it from me.  |
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| 07-Mar-2008 22:05 |
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DOW
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hey evercare, be grateful at least that you've dumped firstres earlier this week. :) see now why i included it in the list of stocks not for newbies? but just as a general note to newbies: be careful of the market; always. never let greed get to your head. it is a controlled place above all. so to survive, one has to be small, and move fast. unless you got sufficient to swing a counter; otherwise, think small and fast. easier to survive. caution is always better than trying to be a hero in such times. |
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| 07-Mar-2008 21:58 |
SGX
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SGX
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lol. idesa my dear, it isn't up to me to say how the market moves, ya know. i can't stop it for ya. haha. but if it counts for any, 6.6 was the intraday lowest possible: i had said the low of the OHLC (open high low close). If the patterns follow, then, SGX is likely to open with a slight gap down (assuming dow down tonight; up would be different calculations). Its intraday high may be a few cents around today's close. That would be your chance to run. Likely, it'd come around 915 am, or in the second up time, ~11 am. o/w, long term, the signal is down. long term tech support is still at 5.5. |
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| 07-Mar-2008 17:36 |
SGX
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SGX
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by wave theory: 6.6 lowest possible of OHLC on mon if dow tonight is a down. fyi only. |
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| 07-Mar-2008 17:28 |
SGX
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SGX
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lol. sure nickyng, go. perhaps i may follow you on mon. if i can wake up in time. haha. this is one counter that still has far to go to its support level. ;) |
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| 07-Mar-2008 17:27 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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china funds are new on the market. they're getting suckered by the global funds; managers are inexperienced. they behave more like retailers in that sense of herd mentality. that is why when the SCI chiongs, it really chiongs, when it crashes, it really crashes. meanwhile, the global funds would never sell unless there is a valid reason. That is for them to say. We can only guess. But the charts show the pic. Coupled this consistent offloading of stocks, and moving into gold/other metal commodities (see the gold thread: citibank has been buying gold at US$97.18): the long term signals are very clear already. of course there'd be a few tech rebounds along the way. but if you've noticed, the rebounds are getting smaller. mathematical; the picture is there already. not so hard up? Remember UBS's AR: they lost US$4 bil, from profit of US$10bil a year ago. Solely due to the last 2Qs. |
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| 07-Mar-2008 17:23 |
SGX
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SGX
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see my earlier post. 5.5 is the next viable support. taht was the gap up then. |
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| 07-Mar-2008 17:21 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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there will be rebound (it's the nature of mathematics), but it'll likely not be as strong as what people are hoping for. |
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| 07-Mar-2008 17:19 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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locked in: ie, locked in profit. my own lingo i guess. today at abt 97.17. citibank had bought from me, that's how i knew they were accumulating. cos they bought up the other quotes. if i buy, it's a strike. watching a counter = call. (altho sometimes a call can be watching to sell, too. a call is basically my signal to watch a counter for action.) cos i bought my second batch at abt US$89. so good to take some profit as a practice. trailing stops. should be retracing a bit for a while now. no mgmt fees. only exchange rate. o/w, it's like a normal stock. just that traded in lots of 10 and not 1000s. |
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| 07-Mar-2008 14:56 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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fyi: foreign funds are in. via counterparty tracking: Citigroup global is buying gold above US$97. They're lidding it too, is my guess. that's why you see the 7,000-11,000 queue to sell. when the really big BBs move, take note. herald of things to come. ie, equities likely down. gold/oil up. idesa, use RSI for gold. above 80 sell, below 50 buy. it seldom drops to below 45. caveat as usual yea. i just locked in some more today. |
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| 07-Mar-2008 14:54 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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k. as per arbitrager's posts and my own earlier. pattern established. it isn't just local BBs playing short. UBS and MS have consistently been offloading the stock. i do not personally believe they made profits off it; i think they're doing it to raise cash. so be careful. caveat applies. |
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| 05-Mar-2008 22:30 |
User Research/Opinions
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No Medicine Can Cure Counters (Wukeyaojiu)
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hahaha. the gahmen comes to help. 
http://info.sgx.com/webnewscentre.nsf/b9c790d0d5ba5d2548256dcf0049ce28/48256838002f07b14825740200357550?OpenDocument |
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| 05-Mar-2008 22:28 |
User Research/Opinions
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No Medicine Can Cure Counters (Wukeyaojiu)
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it's a good idea, but the trouble is that, as onesharer pointed out, what seems like good to one may be bad to another. And the trouble is that small time players like to play precisely the rumored counters (which is likely why a lot get burnt). Perhaps I'll just list down the extremely volatile counters that are good for beginners to avoid? (no judgment on their FA, or techs, or whatever. Just that these are extremely volatile and difficult to predict: see their intraday ranges, the volume of the movement, and the swiftness of the ups and downs. or for some counters, the persistent downs from previous highs.) i.e., for experienced/gungho traders only. -gems tv -jade -banjoo -rowsley -tat hong -ferrochina -the CPOs: Firstres, Indoagri, Wilmar, GoldenAgri -yzj -yanlord -cosco -sgx -singtel -delongH -stx po -cosco if anyone has any further suggestions ya want me to check, just let me know. been busy this week tho; so no guarantees i can get back in time to reply asap. note: above are all just my opinions. and again: NO judgment on the counters; just on their volatility. |
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| 05-Mar-2008 22:18 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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lol. eh, whereru, if you look across the board, every company's future looks dim! Look at SGX: one of the bluest of the blue, but dropped from high of 15.5 on dec 7 to now, 7.58 close on mar 5. That's a 50% drop in 3 mths. in relative comparison, achieva's drop is from 18c to 16c for same period, that's just ~12% drop only. everything's relative. haha. but seriously, entire market is tanking; isn't just this stock alone lah. in this market: either play fast (read: <5 days, pref intraday) or sit long term. In-betweens are likely to get caught. |
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| 05-Mar-2008 22:13 |
Global Inv
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Babcock & Brown SFF
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farmer: shplayer means that people are still selling off the counter; new downtrend has just been established. (funny, i'm seeing this in all the counters i've been reading so far: is there something going on that the BBs know that we don't?) may have a small tech rebound; but going by bab's record, the tech rebound likely worth ~5c max. long term sign doesn't look good tho: selling since 30th jan (see chaikin) |
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| 05-Mar-2008 22:10 |
SGX
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SGX
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7.35 is the support; new downtrend established. selling accelerated since 29 jan. (see chaikin and macd: new downtrend) zanetti is right about the 5.5 next support. (price momentum and bar chart). may possibly get a shortterm tech rebound soon tho; williams oversold. wouldn't quite place my hopes on that though; likely to be a one-two day thing. may not be worth the ride for the risk involved. |
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| 05-Mar-2008 22:04 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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wave pattern consistent; established already: yzj: one or two small rebounds likely; not more than 10c each time (wld put a closer fig at ~6c). Be careful if williams does not break -40 on the rebound; signal to lock in and run. Thereaft the net picture is down; support at ~69-72c. Stronger viable support is actually ~61. Note: above is for short term only; <1 mth; on assumption nothing major changes. caveat applies; not vested. wld actually advise not vesting. |
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