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Latest Posts By ozone2002 - Supreme      About ozone2002
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14-May-2013 14:34 SingPost   /   Singpost       Go to Message
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back then at low price was super divy & capital gain stock..

now divy yield less cos price appreciated .. not much capital gains left cos already ran up

not attractive to vest unless u want lower divy yield & smaller capital gains

gd luck dyodd

ozone2002      ( Date: 28-Jan-2013 15:17) Posted:

Super divy and capital gains stock.. best of both worlds

3QFY13 results in line

Singapore Post (SingPost) reported a 14.5% YoY rise in revenue to

S$171.0m but saw a 5.1% fall in net profit to S$39.5m in 3QFY13.

Excluding one-off items, underlying net profit rose 2.5% to S$39.8m in

the quarter. Results were in line with our expectations, such that 9M13

net profit accounted for 76.7% of our full year estimate.

Strong revenue performance

In the mail division, domestic mail volume continued to decline,

registering the fifth quarter of lower mail volumes. However, strong

growth in international e-commerce packets and contributions from

Novation Solutions helped to boost mail revenue by 20.5% YoY.

Excluding Novation Solutions, growth was still good at 15.1%. Logistics

and retail also saw growth of 10.9% and 19.8%, respectively.

Notwithstanding the fact that 3QFY13 was the festive season which

generally brings in greater revenue, it is encouraging to see the 11.2%

QoQ growth (vs +6.0% in 3QFY12, +7.9% in 3QFY11 and 7.2% in

3QFY10).

Focus on growth and cost pressures

We expect the focus going forward will still remain on cost management

to contain inflationary pressures and rising labour related expenses,

while pursuing growth initiatives. The group has been increasingly active

in the M& A space, having spent a total of S$97m in its acquisition of

General Storage Pte Ltd (which runs the Lock+Store self-storage

business) and a 62.5% stake in a sea freight consolidator and freightforwarder

in the last two months.

Stock has done well downgrading to HOLD

SingPost has done well after we upgraded it to BUY in early Jan last year.

As a stock, SingPost has rewarded shareholders with handsome returns

while providing stability and ease of mind. As it is now trading close to

our fair value estimate of S$1.23, we downgrade it to

forward to SingPost’s transformation as it seeks more growth

opportunities, but till then, we see limited upside potential unless

earnings growth from its acquisitions proves to be better than expected.HOLD. We look

STOCK HAS DONE WELL

DOWNGRADE TO HOLD

• Results in line

• Stock has rewarded shareholders well

• Downgrading to HOLD on valuations

28 Jan 2013

Company Update

SINGAPORE POST | BUY

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Singapore | Logistics

HOLD (downgrade)

Fair value S$1.23

add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06

versus: Current price S$1.21

12m total return forecast 7%

Analysts

Low Pei Han, CFA (Lead) E +65 6531 9813

lowph@ocbc-research.com

Chia Jiunyang, CFA E +65 6531 9809

chiajy@ocbc-research.com

Key information

Market cap. (m) S$2,298 /

USD1,860

Avg daily turnover (m) S$3 /

USD3

Avg daily vol. (m) 3.1

52-wk range (S$) 0.955 - 1.21

Free float (%) 71.6

Shares o/s. (m) 1,899.0

Exchange SGX

BBRG ticker SPOST SP

Reuters ticker SPOS.SI

ISIN code S08

GICS Sector Industrials

GICS Industry

Air Freight &

Logistics

Top shareholder SingTel - 26.0%

Relative total return 1m 3m 12m

Company (%) 6 5 33

STI-adjusted (%) 2 -2 16

Price performance chart

0.87

0.97

1.07

1.16

1.26

1.36

Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Oct-12

2600

2900

3200

3500

3800

4100

Fair Value SPOST SP FSSTI

Shar e Pr ice (S$) Index Level

`

Sources: Bloomberg, OIR estimates

Industry-relative metrics

0th 25th 50th 75th 100th

PB

PE

ROE

Beta

Mkt Cap

Company Indust r y Aver age

Per cent i l e

Note: Industry universe defined as companies under identical GICS classification

listed on the same exchange.

Sources: Bloomberg, OIR estimates

Key financial highlights

Year ended 31 Mar (S$m) FY11 FY12 FY13F FY14F

Revenue 565.8 578.5 615.0 618.0

Operating expenses -386.1 -416.4 -450.4 -452.4

EBITDA 221.3 204.5 208.9 212.0

Net profit att to shareholders 161.0 142.0 144.5 153.2

EPS (S cents) 8.3 7.5 7.6 8.1

Cons. EPS (S cts) na na 46.8 62.3

EBITDA margin (%) 39.1 35.3 34.0 34.3

Net profit margin (%) 28.4 24.5 23.5 24.8

ROE (%) 49.4 45.4 42.7 41.0

Price/NTA (x) 9.8 10.3 9.3 8.2
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14-May-2013 11:00 Kreuz   /   Kreuz cruising back up?       Go to Message
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x 0 		70c .. DBS TP of 78c  is nearing..
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14-May-2013 10:12 AusGroup   /   AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m       Go to Message
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DMG now doing a 180 degree turn from their earlier report, downgrading ausgrp to sell.

AusGroup reported a disappointing 3QFY13 results with a breakeven performance and a deteriorating order book. As our original turnaround thesis is undermined by the weak order flows and lackluster execution, we downgrade AusGroup to a SELL, TP SGD0.35, based on recent trough valuation of 0.77x FY14F book value.

Gains in Major Projects and Fabrication segments offset by poor Integrated Services. Revenue fell 8% q-o-q and 24% y-o-y, while the EBITDA margin shrank to 4.3% from 8.1% in 2Q13. The bottom reversed from a AUD6.8m profit a year ago to a breakeven AUD0.1m this quarter. Management stated that the poorer margins are also due to variation orders in addition to weaker Integrated Services performance.

AUD215m order book is less than two quarters’ work. At current run rates, AusGroup will run out of work within the year. The contract wins and better margins that were supposed to boost 3Q13 and 4Q13 results failed to materialise, and the downward march of the order book presents a dire outlook in the near term.

Slash FY13F/14F estimates by 54%/48%. With this quarter’s breakeven performance in sharp contrast against management guidance, we slash FY13F estimates by 54%. Core earnings are likely to stay weak through FY14 unless a large quantum of orders is won at once. Successful claims of the variation orders present upside to our FY14F estimates, while provisions on the Karara Mining receivables is the main downside risk.

Likely support near recent P/B trough. Earnings concerns are likely to dominate the relisting revaluation potential. Valuation is supported at the recent P/B trough of 0.77x (See Figure 2) which also corresponds to one standard deviation below its 5-year mean. We would become bottom-fishers around the 0.6x P/B range.

Downgrade to SELL, TP SGD0.35. We peg AusGroup’s valuation to 0.77x P/B for a TP of SGD0.35 as the near-term ROEs of 6.4%-7.7% fall below cost of equity calculated at 10.4%. Key upside risks are i) Large contract wins and ii) Early claims of significant variation orders.

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14-May-2013 09:03 JB Foods   /   JB Foods       Go to Message
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x 0 		can buy cheaper than Sam Goi? don't like to pay so big a premium..
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14-May-2013 08:58 Nam Cheong   /   Nam Cheong       Go to Message
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x 0 		Nam Cheong Limited announced that it has sold five vessels worth a total of US$110.0 million. One 12,000 brake horsepower (bhp) Anchor Handling Towing Supply (AHTS) vessel was sold to a new customer based in Indonesia. Meanwhile, four Platform Supply Vessels (PSVs) were sold to an existing customer, a leading oilfield services company based in Asia. “We are also glad to be securing a new customer in Indonesia and expanding our customer base. The country is expected to lead the region on offshore oil and gas expenditure, so we are optimistic about exciting prospects developing on the Indonesian front. As a testament to our long-standing relationship with our existing customer based in Asia, we are also pleased to be supplying them with the four PSVs,” said Leong Seng Keat, Nam Cheong’s Executive Director. Since the start of the year, the group has sold a total of 13 vessels. Nam Cheong’s orderbook reaches RM1.7 billion with this latest win. (Closing price: S$0.255, -%) [Philips Capital]
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13-May-2013 16:29 AusGroup   /   AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m       Go to Message
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Ausgroup (BUY, TP SGD0.66) 8 May


Lee Yue Jer (yuejer.lee@sg.oskgroup.com)

Jason Saw (jason.saw@ sg.oskgroup.com)


AusGroup is an energy and resources specialist which provides fabrication, precision machining, construction and integrated services to natural resource development companies in Australia.

Reason for report: Update

Key points:

in its Gorgon Project, boosting the total value of the entire contract to more than AUD80m. While the extension is positive, we believe investors are more focused on the group’s potential relisting on the ASX. Its ASX-listed peers’ P/Es are higher by 30%, 42% for P/B and 48% for EV/EBITDA. AusGroup announced it has secured additional works worth AUD13.6m Valuation/Recommendation: Maintain BUY with a TP of SGD0.66.
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13-May-2013 15:46 Kreuz   /   Kreuz cruising back up?       Go to Message
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UOB chart genie

Time: 2:44PM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: Kreuz(5RK)

Signal: Resistance - Breakout with High Volume

Last Done: $0.65
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13-May-2013 15:11 Kreuz   /   Kreuz cruising back up?       Go to Message
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now 65c.. moving up steadily..

DBS TP @ 78c

gd luck dyodd
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13-May-2013 15:08 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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Like i posted before..buying for the sake of earnings could land one in trouble if not careful..

Those that have bought at a lower margin of safety are still in the money despite the sell down


ozone2002      ( Date: 09-May-2013 12:03) Posted:



results can be a dble edge sword..

buying for the sake of earnings result can land one in trouble if unlucky..

those who bought below $1 should have some margin of safety..

gd luck dyodd
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13-May-2013 13:44 Silverlake Axis   /   What is your take on this counter? Can buy?       Go to Message
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This company has very good business returns, one of the highest i've seen so far listed on SGX.. PE kinda high now  18x FY14F, waiting for dip to go into this..gd luck dyodd 

Organic growth + acquisitions (DBS)

• 9M12 earnings of RM 136m (+17%) were in line

•

back of recent acquisition and project pipelineFY13F/14F/15F EPS raised 6%/14%/19% on the

•

returns over the next one yearBUY, TP raised to S$0.80 offering 14% potential

9M13 earnings comprised 72% of our full year forecast

Gross margins stood at 62.6% versus 51.6% in FY12 due to

lower hardware sales and rise in higher margin software

licensing & maintenance revenue..

Acquisitions and new projects lead to revisions.

an 80% stake in Malaysian IT company, Merimen Group, in

April 2013 for RM45m-52m, depending on the net profit

range of RM7m-12m in FY14F. Merimen provides cloud

computing platforms for insurance companies and has a

leading position in Singapore, Malaysia and a growing

presence in Indonesia, the Philippines. Meanwhile, SILV is

bidding for various Islamic banking projects in Middle East,

Indonesia and Malaysia, which could add to its order book of

RM350m (excluding hardware & maintenance)SILV acquired

Organic and acquisition driven growth.

to register double-digit growth as ~50% of banks in ASEAN

plan to migrate from legacy core banking solutions to

packaged solutions over the next 2-5 years. SILV generates

excess cash of RM40-50m after paying dividends each year,

which could be used to make earnings-accretive acquisitions.SILV should continue

Peers trade at an average 12-month forward PE of 17.6x.

SILV’s peers are Infosys, TCS, SAP, Fiserv, Temenos and Oracle

financial services. With a rising proportion of recurring

income, we peg our target PE to ~18x FY14F earnings (from

16x) to derive a higher TP of S$0.80. SILV is bidding for a

core banking project of a major Malaysian bank, which if

secured could lead to upside for FY14F earnings.

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13-May-2013 10:45 CityDev   /   CityDev       Go to Message
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11.65.. looking gd..

gd luck dyodd
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13-May-2013 10:38 Raffles Edu   /   Times to goes up       Go to Message
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now 32.5 c cheaper than OHL purchased in Sep.

Gd luck dyodd
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13-May-2013 10:34 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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down 5% after release of results..

buy on rumor and sell on news taking into effect..

 
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13-May-2013 10:31 IPC Corp   /   Solid NTA 27c       Go to Message
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nice breakout finally :)

 

ozone2002      ( Date: 24-Apr-2013 23:58) Posted:



Technical analysis

IPC forming a flag pattern (pennant) likely to move up after consolidation in the past week

gd luck dyodd
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13-May-2013 10:27 Nam Cheong   /   Nam Cheong       Go to Message
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DBS

Nam Cheong’s 1Q13 earnings were largely in line at

RM35.8m, up 8% y-o-y. Revenue was up 14% to

RM235m on the back of delivery of 5 vessels during the

quarter. Shipbuilding gross margin was slightly below

expectations at 17% in 1Q13, but within guided range.

The Group also announced significant contract wins

worth a total of US$110m – for 1 AHTS vessel sold to a

new Indonesian customer + 4 PSVs sold to an existing

customer. The Group remains well on track to sell and

deliver on its newbuild programme of 19 vessels in FY13

and 25 vessels in FY14, underpinning earnings growth

trajectory of > 20% CAGR over FY12-14. Including buildto-

order vessels, orderbook is now at record levels of

RM1.7bn. Maintain BUY, estimates and TP under review

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13-May-2013 10:26 IPC Corp   /   Solid NTA 27c       Go to Message
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Exchange: SGX
Stock: IPC Corp(I12)
Signal: Resistance - Breakout with High Volume
Last Done: $0.157
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13-May-2013 09:48 IPC Corp   /   Solid NTA 27c       Go to Message
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up 3% to 15.7c on news that IPC acquired another hotel

looks like their income streams are increasing..

and assets growing.. with Abenomics looking to reflate assets, IPC NAV looks set to rise as well

gd luck dyodd

ozone2002      ( Date: 10-May-2013 15:10) Posted:



up 3% to 15.5c.. lets see if it is the onset of a bigger move up..

has to play catch with Nikkei..

gd luck dyodd
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13-May-2013 09:17 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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got whacked down to 1.085 after earnings annoucement..

 
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13-May-2013 08:59 CityDev   /   CityDev       Go to Message
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on the verge of a breakout after consolidation..

above 11.5 on HIGH vol confirms the breakout..

gd luck dyodd
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13-May-2013 08:55 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
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gd news.. hope can propel CMZ higher!

PRESS RELEASE - CHINA MINZHONG 3QFY13 REVENUE ROSE 27.7% TO RMB962.2 MILLION * FINANCIAL STATEMENT AND RELATED ANNOUNCEMENT
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