Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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About elfinchilde
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| 19-Mar-2008 01:09 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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bwah ha. yes cashiertan, this counter is very good for rapid trading: if you look at the charts, esp on the dates i stated (as i'm sure you've figured out too ;) ) the patterns are constant. The imprints of which BBs are playing this counter together is all over the charts already. Cowboy town. Not my cup of tea, that's why i'm staying out of this one. hehe. But yea, trading is about personality; one has to do what fits and what makes for oneself, rather than blindly following tips/rumors/sure-wins. Aiyah. In the end result, it's always the small fries who lose. It's a zero sum game. Yes, i feel sorry too; but zero sum game means exactly that. In trading, you always follow the winners. Never bet against the trend. cheers! (PS: glad to see your forex is going well. will likely be starting it up when i return. you're right; forex is more 'stable' than stocks, in the sense that it is less easy to manipulate, hence the charts are easier to read. esp for a techie.) |
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| 19-Mar-2008 01:04 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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bwah ha. gold will retrace, i just don't know when. and i see you've moved already. :P good call tho. just go slow and in parts for gold. take adv of the relatively large intraday swings. and ehhh...mister idesa, give me more credit lah. like heck i'll buy gold at US$110, when RSI is shooting through the roof!! I told ya i locked out earlier already. haha. cantilevering: cos my fund size is small, so sometimes, i'd exit a winning/peaking trend to enter another trade so that i can make more, then come back to the first baby. I had locked in gold at abt US$97 (cos i bought btwn 84.9 to 89 back in dec/jan), to buy the STI puts i called last wed. Nice dip on thurs/fri, locked in puts (and an entire drama msging brokers from HK. haha. geez.). So now waiting on cash. Will likely enter puts again first tho. For the % returns, gold can wait. I need to cantilever. hehe. cheers! PS: you may like to start locking out gold at abt 1,100-1,200. Likely at Fed cut = 2%, DJIA below 11,700. Those are your 'signals'. Then start going back into stocks for long term. I estimate abt 2H of this year may be good to pick up for long term (ie, hold for at least 2 years.). Me, i'm likely gonna be trading. i realised i do better in rapid trading than long term investing. urgh. |
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| 19-Mar-2008 00:56 |
Others
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Poll: 1Q 2008 - Make or lose money?
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hey choohian, hugs back to you! :) how's it going? and yeps, thanks for the congrats. hopefully can hit my target soon, so can provide more for my family. :)))) elfie still in HK. have extended my hols to end of this mth. heehee. (i wish my damn company would pay my last working mth's salary tho!! Feb salary, supposed to pay in Mar, but still not in. And I'm in HK, how to chase. *#&$*&# govt job....hmph. :( hohokit, glad to see you're still so sanguine. a calm attitude always helps in the market. :) relieve and naproxen; it's the % that matters, rather than the figure. cos for someone who has say, 600k in the market, a loss of 30k is 5%. but for someone who's say, 100k in market, 30k loss is 30%. There's a huge dif....actual numbers may be misleading in this case. And well, if you've got cash still, then, there's always a chance of flipping the situation. Just don't panic or act on impulse,that's all. |
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| 18-Mar-2008 22:51 |
Others
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Poll: 1Q 2008 - Make or lose money?
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Up. On gold and puts. Plus some stocks earlier in the in-between rallies. heehee. Locked in abt 20% ROC for 1Q. Mainly in cash now as have locked out both gold and puts last week. on target and on the hunt.... heehee. |
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| 18-Mar-2008 22:47 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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FA for biosensors: based on BIG's own ARs as of Feb 08. http://www.biosensors.com/ir.html Loss has actually decreased (ie, co is turning around): from ~10 mil to 7.8 mil loss cf period of 06 to 07. Loss per share = US 0.75c currently. Note that BIG prices in USD, so you need to factor in exchange rate losses. However, net current assets have actually decreased, from 82 mil to 62mil for comparative Q period of Mar 07 to Dec 07. Total product revenue (important, because it is on this that you can base a realistic forward PE) increased by only 5%. If you read the details of their AR, most of their revenue comes from conventional products (intervention cardiology and critical care), not the DES stent that has been hyped up. The co is putting a lot of expectations on the BioMatrix stents they are developing. Generally speaking, from a business perspective, it means it'll either make it, or totally crash. note tho that in the pharmaco industry (I was from there myself), most products will take 10-15 yrs from clinical trials to being sold on the streets. Getting a license is one thing; getting it readily accepted by the market is another. There are countless products out in the heart cardio field. Overall, the pic reads increased expenditure, increased sales and marketing costs (marketing of biomatrix), increased operational expenses, but profit increase thus far is only 5%. ------------- attaching the words from their own AR, fyi: On 18 January 2008, the Group also announced that it has received Conformite Europeenne ("CE") mark approval for its BioMatrix drug-eluting stent system (?DES?), enabling commercialisation of this product in the European Union and the countries in Asia and Latin America that recognise the CE mark. Terumo Corporation, a licensee, also announced CE mark approval for its NOBORI DES. Biosensors will share a portion of the revenues from the sales of NOBORI DES by Terumo. BioMatrix DES is expected to be launched in April 2008, which is the first quarter of fiscal year ending 31 March 2009 (Q1 FY 2009), and the NOBORI DES is expected to be launched in a similar time frame. The Company believes that revenues from BioMatrix sales will represent a major portion of the product sales in the second half of fiscal year ending 31 March 2009 (H2 FY 2009). The Group expects to record revenues of between US$100 million to US$115 million for fiscal year ending 31 March 2009 (FY 2009). The Group believes that it will continue to incur operating losses during the first half of FY 2009 (the six-month period ending 30 September 2008), but will be in a position to break-even or turn a small profit late in the fiscal year ending 31 March 2009. ------------------------- Hence, forward PE ratio calculations: EPS loss = 0.75c. NAV = 11.51c. Float of biosensors ~ 1052 bil. Assuming the group actually manages to hit profit of US$115 mil for FY2009 from sales of BioMatrix, as stated by the management themselves. Deduct loss of 7.8mil: hence, net profit of Biosensors = US$107.2 mil. Hence, fair value rerating of EPS = US 0.10c. Fair value NAV = US 0.224c. By EPS ratio, stock is way overvalued: even with a EPS of 0.1c, its PE ratio is skyhigh. However, by NAV calculation: FA terms states max 2-3x book to price ratio as fair value for a stock. So assuming 2.5x as average => potential of biosensors = 0.224 x 2.5 x 1.38 (exchange rate) = S$0.77 as best target for biosensors, in FY 2009. If one wishes to be optimistic and take 3x book to price ratio, that means 92c is the max target for the stock, for FY2009. Note: all the above is via FA calculations.
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| 18-Mar-2008 22:45 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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agree with cashiertan. If you can read charts, this counter is totally manipulated. And well, rather than arguing on words (sell! buy!), perhaps it'd be better to give the facts, and let investors/traders decide for themselves. elfie is doing a thorough analysis here, for both traders and investors. FYI caveat applies. I'm not vested in this, and don't intend to. For the amt of time spent waiting, and the risk (both FA and TA-wise), i'd rather play other counters. --------------- TA for biosensors: cf charts: aug 10-15. oct 29 to nov 1. dec 26 to jan 21. feb 12 to feb 27. pic from chaikin shows consistent distribution (ie, selling) since nov 07. From a/d, shows consistent distribution since May 07. pls note that M formation, ie, lower high, lower low, has been formed. A break below 70.5c on increasing sell vol is actually a sell signal. (note though that almost all stocks across the board are forming the M formation: signal of a broad market breakdown imminent.) and actually, after a lock up period, most stocks will tank as the big shareholders cash out. Have said once before that this counter is not for newbies. Still hold by those words. Even brokerage houses get caught on this: Most recently, on the Feb/Mar crash. |
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| 17-Mar-2008 20:26 |
Others
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Where to put money if market is like this .....
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eldarchen, hedge your positions. time to go safer. year of the earth rat; what's of value goes underground. stay under the radar; or go fast to survive. longer term instruments: fixed deposits (maybank is good). forex/FD: NZD. Aussie. RMB. Yen. Don't keep S$ cos the govt is sure to drop it to make our exports competitive. ie, double whammy: stocks drop, S$ also drop, our inflation and costs have gone up. Gold on dip: citibank massively bought gold (think 7,000 lots on the streettracks GLD USD fund) at 97. so anything below that is a strike. short term: puts. But be careful of mar 18/19: tech rebound: enter puts then. pivot range is 2600-2700. game play time. liquidate all unnecessary positions; get ready to buy good blues for long term (not so soon). Meanwhile, trade if you've the appetite for it. elfie extending hols. won't be back til 28th. heehee. see ya all! :) |
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| 15-Mar-2008 20:34 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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heya, yes, traded during SGX time. so it's good in a way cos the previous day's comex px is more or less reflective of the next day's GLD 10 px. sporeguy, you're right abt the convergence. which is why i've locked out gold for the time being. hehe. plus with USD dropping, any increase may not be worth the USD exchange rate drop; that's why i advocated buying at lower RSI. k gotta go. lan kwai fong. heehee. cheers! |
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| 15-Mar-2008 20:32 |
Others
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ah moh remiser sms me bottom fishing day,,,cheers
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hey CWquah, yeps, normally when i pick out warrants, i'll id strangles--ie, both puts and calls. but will only choose to enter one. had entered and locked out the mar and april puts last week. this time, i've choosen an end april and may warrant. the mar one is too dangerous alr. thanks for the warning; will keep it in mind. good luck trading! :) hi terence, not quite sure about BI symbol. which broker are you using? or do you mean the timing? |
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| 15-Mar-2008 01:40 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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STI charts: pls be aware that there have been 2 rebounds off the 2,800 level. the 2nd rebound was less than the first: ie, lower high. lows at equal level. ie, M formation is more or less in place already. we just need the break below 2,800. In probability terms, esp with current macro trends, there's a much higher chance of breaking downwards from 2,800 than of rising to ~3,000 (the previous support),as the latter needs to occur on increasing buy vol as well. |
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| 15-Mar-2008 01:36 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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bwah ha. idesa, i see i've got a convert for gold. :P this is the yzj thread leh, not gold thread...see too much 'kim' colour until eyes blur already eh? ;) g'luck to ya tho! get ready to buy STI puts if dow rallies aft Fed cut. esp if the peak of the rebound doesn't cut 12,400. ;) fyi only. not an inducement to trade. btw: those thinking of squaring up yzj: not yet. the previous tech support i made for it via fibo still holds. |
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| 15-Mar-2008 01:32 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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am expecting lowest to be ~10-10.5c, in case of a sudden dip (likely due to some ppl getting margin call). waiting to accumulate for 2H of year. at that px, it's below NAV. so there's a 'buffer' there. plus, achieva has never fallen below its aug 17th low yet. unlike most other counters. worthwhile to watch. it becomes mathematical already, if you can get it at that px. (ie, low probability of losing.) usual caveat applies. esp as i'm interested in this counter. heehee. fyi only ah. pls don't just 'whack' any stocks at this pt in time. wld be very dangerous to. prudence and go in slowly, only with what cash you have to spare. and be prepared to sit for a few mths at least. |
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| 15-Mar-2008 01:28 |
Others
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DOW
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hey all; careful of the DJIA. if you look at its 6 mth chart, the M formation is almost in place already: lower low, lower high has been formed. A dip on increased vol below ~11,750 (the lowest of the first wave down of the M), will signify new downtrend. So in tandem, would expect STI not to hold. Expecting brief rally when fed cuts, likely by 75 basis pts, from the looks of it. Thereaft down. Next week, goldman, merril and a few other heavyweights report results; already there's the warning it won't be pretty. fyi the 6 mth DJIA chart. http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?pg=ch&symb=djia&time=6mo&freq=1dy&charts=0&comp=&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&ind_compind=&uf=0&lf=1&ma=0&maval=60 |
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| 14-Mar-2008 01:31 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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edit: sorry: limit for stocks is 35% of OA. so total allowed for gold and stocks is 45%. | ||||
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| 14-Mar-2008 01:27 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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lol. i see idesa has taken over my role as proponent of gold. 
littlenova and colorado, yes, you trade it exactly like a stock. take note that it's priced in USD though, so you need to factor in the conversion rate, too. There's no mgmt fee; only the standard brokerage fee, as per a normal stock. The one thing to take note of: each lot is 10 shares, not 1,000 shares. hence, the px you see, eg, US$97.60. means one lot will cost you US$976. (and not 97,600.) I don't invest using CPF, but yes, limit for gold is 10%, stocks is 45%. of the OA. Not sure if the streettracks gold fund counts under the 10% tho: it may just be limited to the UOB gold trust fund. need to find that out. btw, pls note that gold has a large intraday trading range. so don't be shocked if you see large movements daily; it's quite regular. Also: use RSI to track this counter. it's relatively accurate: if you're buying for longterm, wait for dip to <50. sell at ~80 if scalping. if not, just keep loading in positions whenever it dips to below 50. Long term outlook for gold: this year is expected to hit 1,000 per troy ounce (actually, 1,200 max is my tech count, via fibo). thereaft retrace a bit to the 900 level. then next year is 1,200-1,300. and by 2012-2014, the target is 2,100. This is from a foreign analyst. the name slips me at the moment. but generally, there is concurrence: the px of gold can only increase as demand increases, and supply decreases. Advise patience accumulating this counter tho. Separate out and buy it bit by bit. Gold can do sudden dips of more than US$10 in a day; so be careful of that. have played this twice since nov alr. oh yah. one more tip: if you have market depth, you can see queues to sell consistently above: at 7,000-11,000 lots. Don't be fooled by these, they're likely false queues. Got caught out once before; i saw large sell queues, so i sold slightly less, only to see the sell queues disappear straight away, and my lots swallowed up by a foreign BB.  Consistently this has been the case, from my observance of market depth.
note: caveat applies to all the above yea. pls make your own buy/sell call. am just sharing from my experience in this counter. |
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| 14-Mar-2008 01:16 |
SGX
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SGX
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hullo all; yeps, in HK for a short hol to visit my sis. get away from stuff back home. haha. shopping!  anyone wanna sponsor meeeee????
hey DnApeh, the situation isn't so bad really...at least, i haven't seen any sniffly people about. the primary schools are closed for two weeks tho. it strikes mainly kids only; so i presume adults are safe. wld def be more careful around crowds etc tho. (oh, and they've set up the temperature monitors at the airport, too). and idesa. i have to bother abt the market. still got puts from wed. didn't close out all positions today, cos i had to leave by 2 pm. looking forward to 9 am tmrw. will hopefully settle my twins and spending money for myself for the year. *cross fingers, eyes and toes* |
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| 14-Mar-2008 01:08 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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sorry to all, but: cut the crap louis_leecs. From the counters you have been recommending, and the 'news' you've been giving (all that talk about 'ang moh remiser'--sure, name them)--i can narrow down which house you come from already. I've just been keeping polite, that's all. But: just because one doesn't say, doesn't mean one doesn't see. You may seriously wish to consider shutting up and quit misleading people. It's a jail offence now for false dissemination of news. yzj has been an outright sell call since the days it was $2 plus. you just have to track the previous posts of other forumers like arbitrager, ak francis, teeth53 etc, to see. hope forumers won't be so gullible anymore. even a quant like victorf, who's relatively accurate, hasn't quite managed to hit the mark for the last two calls (although he accurately predicted the previous three dates before these two). What more a guy who can't even spell rightly. Altho of course, it's caveat emptor, and people can choose who or what they want to believe. but personally, i just hate seeing these kind of things, and unknowing small fries getting suckered in.  |
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| 13-Mar-2008 22:53 |
SGX
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SGX
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hey all; elfie in HK now. just to ask if anyone followed my strike call for the STI puts on wed? cos if no one did; then i won't bother posting tmrw. anw, the answer shd be clear. lock out mar puts tmrw, can hold some april 2800 puts if you did follow; alt take profit as well. cheers. | ||||
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| 13-Mar-2008 11:34 |
SGX
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SGX
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k, trailing stops: for the puts i called strike on yest: change of plans; dow futures down, europe likely to open red. so: lock in half. 2900 put @ 13. 2800 put @ 16. expect tmrw at ~15 and 17 resp. fyi for those who followed only. leaving for hk in 2.5 hrs time. and still trading. hahahahah. idesa, good call on the short. expect sub 7 today. wld put today's close ~6.98. cheers! |
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| 13-Mar-2008 10:43 |
Others
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ah moh remiser sms me bottom fishing day,,,cheers
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Well, i hope this time, the facts have proven themselves right. STI is currently down 42 pts, dow was down 46 pts last night, and dow futures are down too. Meanwhile, gold and oil are shooting through the roof. NYMEX crude traded at US$109.92. The 400 pt DJIA rally was a massive short covering by the BBs there, who reacted to news of the 200 bil lending programme and fears that there may be an unanticipated rate cut before Mar 18. Read para 6 of the article linked: http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/12/markets/markets_wrap/index.htm Meanwhile: my own posts on the SGX thread, as well as various posts in this thread, by myself, and other forumers--who got negative ratings for stating their opinion? C'mon, people, don't be so easily taken for a ride. china stocks and CPO plays: current prices: yzj 91c. cosco 3.19. yanlord 2.1. ferrochina 1.15. firstres 93c. indoagri 2.18. goldenagri 94.5. Go see the charts, what they were just in Jan. Follow the trend. Above all else. ------------------------------
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