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i'm more interested in capital gains than dividends.. :)
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have been advocating this stock since Mar when it was below 50c..
glad that it ran up ~50%
learn to value companies and you know how to buy, when to buy and what to buy
at the same time also know when to sell
gd luck dyodd
ozone2002 ( Date: 25-Mar-2013 08:52) Posted:
this is a gem.. read the financials and Kreuz is looking mighty fine
single digit PE with good growth
gd luck dyod |
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now up 10% 68.5c.. too much run up within the day.. advise to take some profit
gd luck dyodd
ozone2002 ( Date: 15-May-2013 14:06) Posted:
up 7% today..66.5
playing catch up with Kreuz
gd luck dyodd |
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ur broker doesn't know how to value companies..
like most brokers anyway.. very sad
tea444u ( Date: 15-May-2013 15:25) Posted:
lao sai my broker...say dont buy in this morning...choy ah....
ozone2002 ( Date: 15-May-2013 15:21) Posted:
up 5% now 73.5c
swiber n kreuz both running
gd luck dyodd |
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Just triggered UOB CHART GENIE
Time: 3:16PM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: UtdEnvirotech(U19)
Signal: Resistance - Breakout with High Volume
Last Done: $0.845
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up 5% now 73.5c
swiber n kreuz both running
gd luck dyodd
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Gallant buys 52% stake in Indomobil from DB reports
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Quality yard at bargain price (DBS)
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but EBITDA margins still at low levels – in line 1Q13 core earnings saw 25% sequential improvement
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seen for AHTS market Robust outlook for subsea and signs of improvement
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end-FY13, expect EBITDA margins to improve next year Operating issues in Brazil should be largely resolved by
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FY13/14F earnings by 4/6% Maintain BUY TP revised down to S$1.46 as we trim
Highlights
Decent execution in 1Q13.
+25% q-o-q) was in line with our expectations, and would have
been higher if not for a NOK20m net forex loss. Gross margin
normalized to 33.6% (vs. 35.7% in FY12) and EBITDA margin came
in as expected at a low 11.1% (vs. 13.8% in 9M12 and 19% in
FY11), impacted by the persistent operational issues at the Niteroi
yard in Brazil and temporary lower utilisation at the Vietnam yard. Core earnings of NOK188m (-30% y-oy
Our View
Subsea underpins positive outlook for order wins
1Q13 with an orderbook of NOK15.5bn, and has secured close to
NOK3.8bn worth of new orders YTD in FY13, including high value
OSCVs. Outlook for the subsea construction vessel segment remains
robust, and management also notes improvements in AHTS spot
charter rates. Vard remains in the running for Petrobras pipelay
support vessel orders. Demand for larger PSVs continues to be
sluggish though. While OSCV order wins are typically higher in value,
they tend to be lumpy, hence we choose to err on the conservative
side and lower our FY13/14 order win forecasts to NOK11bn/ NOK
13bn from NOK12.5bn/ NOK 14bn previously. Accordingly, we trim
our FY13/14F earnings estimates by 4/6%. . Vard ended
Expect recovery in FY14
of a drag by the end of FY13, and as a result, EBITDA margins are
expected to recover in FY14 by about 1.5ppts from 1Q13 levels. The
other new yard in Brazil is almost 85% complete, and steel cutting
for the LPG carrier orderbook will start from July onwards. Delivery
schedule for these vessels are still on track. . The issues at the Niteroi yard will be less
Recommendation
Trading at 6.5x PE, good entry point
earnings, our TP is lowered to S$1.46, still pegged at 9x FY13PE.
Maintain BUY as Vard remains a key proxy to the buoyant subsea
market, and we believe the weak share price has reflects the
uncertainties (e.g. change in dividend policy) following the entry of
Fincantieri, as well as the possibility of muted earnings growth in
FY13. . In line with the cut in
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we have lift off!! gd luck dyodd
UOB CHART GENIE
Time: 2:32PM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: Vard Holdings(MS7)
Signal: Resistance - Breakout with High Volume
Last Done: $1.095
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correction should be 100% gains.. 8K to 15K is ~ approx double
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Nikkei is up 2% today.. 1 year it went from 8K to 15K that's 50% gain.. IPC only went from 15c to 16c no where close to the 50% gain that Nikkei displayed..
gd luck dyodd
NIKKEI 225 (^N225)-Osaka
15,096.03  337.61(2.29%) 14:00 SGT
| Prev Close: |
14,758.42 |
| Open: |
14,962.34 |
| Day's Range: |
14,956.38 - 15,108.83 |
| 52wk Range: |
8,238.96 - 15,108.83 |
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up 7% today..66.5
playing catch up with Kreuz
gd luck dyodd
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16.2c .. hope it moves further up to play catch up with Nikkei
gd luck dyodd
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re-qoute the post
ozone2002 ( Date: 08-May-2013 16:21) Posted:
| Based on OSK DMG report market cap for Ausgrp is
RTO of the M'sian companies is S$210m
which is just about fair value.. however there will be proceeds from the relisting on ASX to shareholders as quoted from OSK DMG report (unable to calculate that amount at the moment)
ozone2002 ( Date: 08-May-2013 16:14) Posted:
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AusGroup rises on planned S$210m purchase ahead of RTO
AusGroup's counter rose as much as 7.5 per cent to 50 Singapore cents on Wednesday morning, a day after it revealed the possible acquisition of two Malaysian property developers as part of its reverse takeover plans to relist on the Australian Securities Exchange - PHOTO: REUTERS
AusGroup's counter rose as much as 7.5 per cent to 50 Singapore cents on Wednesday morning, a day after it revealed the possible acquisition of two Malaysian property developers as part of its reverse takeover plans to relist on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).
On Tuesday, after market hours, the construction service provider to the resources, energy and industrial sectors said it has entered into a conditional agreement to buy out two firms, Kebun Sedenak Sdn Bhd and Tropik Sentosa Sdn Bhd for S$210 million combined.
This, it said, was a key step in its proposed demerger of AusGroup's subsidiaries into a 100-per-cent-owned subsidiary, which will be listed on be listed on the ASX.
The two companies develop, manage and operate resort homes, condominiums, hotels and commercial and residential developments. Between themselves, they own freehold land in Malaysia which they intend to develop a master-planned golf resort.
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Just reiterating the point of the " hidden" value in ausgrp despite it's poor results..
gd luck dyodd
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Not as bad as feared (CIMB)
Akin to a Brazilian gold rush, Petrobras's bountiful requirements have attracted waves of profiteers. But in the end, it was the picks and shovels, and not the miners, who struck it rich. 1Q margins were crimped due to an overheated Brazilian suppliers’ market. However, the margin squeeze was not as bad as feared.
At 20% of our FY13 numbers, 1Q core earnings were 19% below our expectation and 13% below consensus due to lower-than-expected margins. We cut our FY13-15 EPS by 10-12% on lower margins. We upgrade the stock to Outperform from Trading Buy as recent share price weakness has priced in the worst. We also nudge up our target price, still based on 1 s.d. above its historical forward P/E mean (9x CY14). Catalysts could come from stronger margins and orders.
Not as bad as feared
1Q core earnings dropped 25% yoy due to a margin squeeze. The EBITDA margin decreased by 2.9% pts yoy to 11.1% due to ongoing sub-contracting bottlenecks in Brazil and start-up costs from its new Promar yard. Deliveries of the Brazilian-built vessels have been delayed, resulting in additional penalties. However, we note that Brazilian cost overruns have been flagged and accrued since 2Q12 results (Vard achieved a 13.2% EBITDA margin for FY12). Hence, the likelihood of an earnings shock is low, in our view.
Margins to improve in FY14
With four of the five Brazilian vessels set to be delivered by 1Q14, margin pressures should ease in FY14. We now expect Vard to achieve an 11.5% EBITDA margin for FY14 (previously 12%), keeping in mind that improvements could also stem from scaling of the learning curve for the Transpetro orders as well as investment initiatives for Romanian and Vietnam yards. We also expect Vard to achieve an 11% EBITDA margin for FY13 (previously 12%), leading to our earnings cut.
World class OSV-builder at a bargain
Vard trades at 7.1x CY14 P/E and offers a 4.5% dividend yield (highest among small-mid-cap O& M stocks).
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An encouraging start (CIMB)
In a sub-par growth environment, it is essential for small-to-mid-sized companies to leave no stones unturned. CSE is doing just that, scouring the world for investment opportunities to augment its organic growth. CSE’s internal growth met our expectation for 1Q.
At 23% of our FY13 numbers, 1Q core earnings were broadly in line with our expectation and consensus. We trim our FY13-15 EPS estimates by 2% for slightly lower turnover. Maintain Outperform with a slightly lower target price, still at 8x CY14 P/E, 0.5 s.d. below its 5-year mean. Catalysts could come from M& As as well as stronger orders and quarters.
An encouraging start
CSE made an encouraging start in 1Q. Though revenue fell 11% yoy to S$120m (lower activities across all segments), profitability improved as the group recorded similar earnings (S$12.7m) vs. the previous year. One negative though was the lower-than-expected order intake of S$95.4m. We now expect CSE to secure S$500m orders for FY13 (previously S$550m), leading to our cut in estimates. Its order book stands at S$361m. CSE generated operating cash inflow of S$16.9m (almost double that of 4Q12), bringing its net gearing down to 0.1x from 0.2x as at end-2012.
Segment breakdown
The Middle East underpinned earnings in 1Q. Earnings from MENA jumped 49% yoy as the loss-making projects near completion (the last of which should be delivered in 3Q). Earnings from the US also grew 25% yoy as the group shifted its attention to more lucrative offshore jobs. These two regions helped to offset the drop in profitability in Asia Pacific. Nonetheless, sizeable Australian LNG orders (i.e. Wheatstone) could flow in 4Q. We also expect a stronger pick-up for Asia Pacific in 2H as recognition for the sizeable Ichthys LNG job in Australia and thermal engineering ramps up.
Resilient, diversified model
Investors’ main grouse of dimmer growth prospects (function of scalability) has been priced in. Rather, CSE’s dividend yields in excess of 5% and resilient, diversified business model lend support to our call.
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From DMG (to be taken with a pinch of salt after their 180 deg turnaround on their back to back report on Ausgrp)
Sino Grandness reported a 24% y-o-y growth in 1Q13 earnings to CNY70.5m. Results are in-line with expectations, accounting for 18% of our full year estimates as Q1 is traditionally the weakest quarter. Stock price has risen 23% since our last note. We continue to remain positive on the stock. Re-iterate BUY with unchanged TP of SGD1.74 based on our SOTP valuation. This translates into an undemanding 6x FY13F P/E.
1Q13 results in-line. 1Q13 earnings growth of 24% y-o-y to CNY70.5m accounts for 18% of our full year forecast. Results are in line with expectations as Q1 is traditionally the Group’s weakest quarter due to weaker sales of its export canned food division. Historically Q1 would account for 18-20% of full year earnings.
Sales of domestic canned fruits almost doubled. Overall, the canned food division registered sales growth of 9% y-o-y to CNY 137m, accounting for 17% of our full year estimates. While export sales declined by 3%, domestic sales almost doubled, rising 94% y-o-y to CNY30m. This is in line with management’s guidance and target of focusing on the Chinese domestic market. In the long run, Chairman Mr Huang Yupeng expects domestic market sales to supersede the export market.
Sales of beverages up 50% y-o-y. Sales of beverages was up 50% y-o-y to CNY239m, accounting for 17% of our full year estimates. We are projecting a 60% growth in 2013 beverage sales. Going forward, we expect growth to come from expansion of its distribution network into new provinces and channels.
Lower cost of raw materials bumped up gross margins. 1Q13 gross margins came in at 40.5% vs our 2013F of 39.3%. On a y-o-y basis, gross margins has expanded by 3ppt, largely due to in-house processing of puree for beverages as well as economies of scale.
SOTP-derived TP of SGD1.74. We value Sino Grandness using sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation to derive TP of SGD1.74. Since our last post-roadshow note on 25Apr2013, stock price has risen by 23%. We still see further upside and re-iterate BUY
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In 2013, Echo of 1995 Rally Dares Bulls to DreamBy Michael Santoli | Michael Santoli – Fri, May 10, 2013 11:33 AM EDT
Just naming certain years in market history can tell a dramatic story: 1929 and 1987 denote generation-defining crashes, 1999 is code for easy-riches mania, 2008 for financial-system collapse.
The year 1995 tends to get lost in the general “late ‘90s bull market” period, yet it was one of the most distinctive years in market memory – a tireless, gentle, seemingly effortless upward glide to a 34% one-year gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index.
As profoundly different as today’s economic backdrop might appear, the steady, fear-defying rally of 2013 to date most closely resembles that of 1995 in its rhythm and pace, which is generating a bit of Wall Street chatter about what it might suggest as the possible nirvana scenario for investors.
Jonathan Krinsky, chief technical market analyst at institutional broker Miller Tabak, pointed out to clients this week that 1995 was the only time prior to 2013 when the S& P 500 got this far into a year without at least a 4% pullback, and in each year the index was up about 14% as of May 8.
That old " irrational exuberance"
The market would, in fact, go the entire stretch of 1995 without so much as a 4% drop, slowly building the confidence of investors and inflating stock values to the point that, by late 1996, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan famously mused about how “irrational exuberance” might be restrained.
Let’s note the visible contrasts between 1995 and today, which no doubt are leaping to mind and which will reinforce the sense among today’s skeptical investors that the current market rally is unmerited by the fundamentals.
The U.S. unemployment rate spent all of 1995 below 6% today it is at 7.5% and falling grudgingly. Back then the economy was well into a recovery from a mild and brief recession now the world economy is healing slowly from a deep and scarring downturn. Corporate profit margins then were healthy and still rising, while today they are already at historic highs.
Yet the echoes between today’s growth-challenged, worry-beset environment and that of 1995 are also pretty clear, and less well-remembered.
The parallels
Tony Dwyer of Canaccord Genuity has been among the most bullish Wall Street strategists for the past couple of years and has been predicting a jump to 1760 on the S& P 500, which would represent another 10% gain from here. He has been invoking the ’95 analogy for some time, and recently detailed some parallels.
There was an all-out “growth scare” in ’95, with U.S. GDP slipping below 1% for two straight quarters and April and May payrolls declining. “China was slowing from upper-teens growth to upper-single digits,” Dwyer notes, while Mexico nearly defaulted on its government debt, commodity prices were sliding, Western Europe’s economy was stalled, the U.S. federal deficit was at then-all-time highs as a proportion of the economy and the S& P 500 price-to-earnings multiple had entered the year near 15 as it did this year. There are some rhymes there, at least.
The wall of investor worry entering 1995 was also rather high - even if in the popular memory the second half of the ‘90s was all economic giddiness and technological magic. In 1994 the Federal Reserve imposed a brutal bond-market crash in order to head off inflationary pressures. Wall Street firms lost money as a group, bond hedge funds imploded, and it was widely believed the Fed had engineered another recession on a still-fragile economy.
Obviously, today’s Federal Reserve’s love hasn’t been nearly so tough. It has held rates at zero for years and is committed to an unending program of adding tens of billions per month to financial markets through asset purchases.
Yet in the spring of ’95, once Greenspan reversed course and began cutting rates, we had a central bank that was essentially adding fuel to an economy and credit markets that were already gathering pace beneath the surface. Today’s Fed, from one angle, saw the economy and markets stumble each time it has ended aggressive support programs in recent years, and is now determined to stay easier for longer even should the economy accelerate from here.
Damage below the surface
One under-appreciated element of both 1995 and 2013 (to date) is how each represented a great unclenching of bound-up financial and economic anxiety. Wall Street had essentially undergone two crashes (one of stocks, the other bonds) within seven years. Risk-taking had been forcibly curtailed, and even though the S& P 500 showed a slim loss for 1994, the damage below the surface to the typical stock was painful. Washington was a snake pit, warring over budget and social issues, and Congressional Republicans would shut down the government in late ’95.
Entering 2013, financial players had endured a serious meltdown scare either from Europe or Washington for three straight years, and in general investors were defensive, hedged, positioned to expect continued volatility. In both cases, the Street was not in a posture to profit from an “outbreak of calm” in either the economy or policy, and markets re-priced higher than seemed warranted at first.
These historical exercises should never be taken too literally, or too far. The 1995 market was picking up the stirrings of massive economic advances: the commercialization of the Internet, the emergence of Asia, the democratization of finance. (Netscape would go public that year, launching the tech-stock wealth bonanza, and Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) started taking online accounts that year.) Any economic downturn in ’95 was likely to be manageable, with lots of policy tools at the ready to address it.
Today the economy is demographically less energetic, monetary policy makers are well into uncharted waters and it’s simply not clear if today’s strong equity market is telling us anything enduring about private-sector progress not yet evident. Stock valuations are getting stretched even as corporate profit margins are likely peaking. And maybe the rarity of the smooth, perfect 1995 rally actually tells us how deeply unlikely a rerun is for this or any year.
Still, the market doesn’t always track headlines or the prevailing mood. The “unclenching” of anxiety could easily carry on for a while in stocks, especially given the way the corporate-bond market is generously pricing risk. While not a prediction, the 1995 market probably represents a pessimistic investor’s “upside risk.”
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for me i would realise the capital gains now.. @ $1.4 that's about 40% capital gains..
and 6% divy that's close to 50% gains..
it will probably reach $1.5 but to get there may be a rough or smooth ride..
ask urself what are u after? steady divy (continue to vest) or capital gains+divy (realise ur gains and find other better stocks to vest in)?
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