Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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About elfinchilde
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| 03-Apr-2008 16:59 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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from counterparty check: MS Asia and Citigroup global selling gold. RSI at low and turning up. fyi only. be careful because it's an either/or scenario now. |
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| 02-Apr-2008 14:01 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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ride the rally, exits when it ends. Fifth wave. dow possible to 12,750. If it breaks that on high vol, it'd be a new uptrend. If not, expect down. Note that the dow rise yest was on back of low volume. that's a key indication of unsustainability. Keep monitoring. The good thing is that gold px is dropping (oil and gold px dropped, manufacturing data was 'good'--ie, a contraction, but less than expected), hence it is psychological relief, and not real fundamental improvement in the US economy. 4th wave took ~2 mths from up to down; so expect this fifth wave to last about a month, from up to down. I'm sitting this one out. |
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| 02-Apr-2008 13:45 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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quiz: hehe. i've been getting requests for answers. ;) ain't gonna give them out, :P but these are what they say about you, as a person. The test comes from japan, which is what is known as a high context society. ie, things are unsaid, not overt. It is a test of your subconscious instincts in times of crises. ------------------------ So baseerahmed: In a situation of crisis, the first thing you'd give up is pride, because that is useless to you in the game of survival. Ie, you will do what is necessary to get by--even deal nicely with people you don't like, but whom can fulfil your aims. Then, it is your children whom you'd give up next. THe next to go is passion, for life. Because when things are reduced to a bad state, what does one need for survival? To you, it is friends to whom you are most loyal, and whom you treasure, above your own pride, above your own passion for life. Be careful of being taken advantage of by fairweathered friends. Likely, you find it difficult to cut off ties. But it is to yourself whom you are mostly true. WHen it comes to push and shove, you'd put your own survival above all else. shplayer. would you prefer yours in private instead? *grin* |
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| 02-Apr-2008 13:21 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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am with shplayer on this actually. firstly, it is not the country per se, but the system. And haha, he asked the question i was implying at, when i talked about stewardesses and whom they served: What if being a perceived 'second class citizen' in another country, is better than being a first class citizen in your own country? How much of what we know is simply propaganda, instead of real truth? And having said that: singaporeans tend to have a nanny mentality too, as in, we rely on the govt for too many things, when power should be in our own hands. As i said, when two parts create friction, the problem is not on the parts, but on the friction: ie, the right match. Every country has its own ideals, its culture, its beliefs. Just because you were born in one, doesn't mean that its ethos and zeitgeist resonates with you. THe idea of 'what you can do for your country' has to be understood in the context of its time. And not permuted to simply the superficial line itself. (one of the other things which i never liked about being singaporean: the assumption that we know it all, when really, we're merely reading the first lines of paragraphs, and assuming the rest. THat's perhaps why singaporeans do not succeed in China for business: we are not careful enough on the details, whilst being pedantic on sticking 'with the rules'--which really, varies from country to country). But I digress. JFK's "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country"'s speech was his inaugural speech as President in 1961. That was 47 years ago. It was the era of new beginnings, the Beat Generation, the hippie-ness that believed in peace, freedom, and on the flip side, the Vietnam War. Now, when you have a war, what do you need? Soldiers. How do you get them? By stirring up patriotism. Hence, "what you can do for your country". For those interested, read this: http://www.halexandria.org/dward821.htm In short: It is far more likely that these quotations from our illustrious leaders refer to the idea that our fellow citizens should not be asking what manner of welfare and free rides their country can provide for them, but what they can provide for their government. Assuming this is the case, then we are left with a bit of a quandary. A government is not an independent entity with its own inalienable existence. It is instead that collection of individuals who exercise the rule of the government over its constituents. In other words, governments are that collective of the elite and powerful. Ask not what the elite and powerful can do for you -- ask what you can do for the elite and powerful. That speech was one of the best political chicanery I have ever seen. Kennedy was pure charisma. Machiavellians make the best politicians. And this, too, is why Singapore will always have a nanny government; simply, unlike America and other large countries, we cannot afford political dissent. It is catch 22. The more they handhold us, the more we will become like whining kids unable to fend for ourselves. But if they do NOT handhold us, what is risked is a country that falls apart. Unlike America, what would we have? Bedok as one country, Jurong as another? It is simply unfeasible. So for all the talk about initiatives, we necessarily remain as what Juvenal said, about government: panem et circenses. ie, "bread and circuses". Feed the people, entertain them, and they will obey. Governments run their populations on obedience, not on thinking men. THe danger for the ruling elite, always, is a thinking man. Which is why, when governments assume power, the first thing they do is to suppress the arts.
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| 01-Apr-2008 22:59 |
Entertainment
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Jemahh Islamiyah leader escapes from Whitley Rd!
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priorities, scotty, priorities. ;) | ||
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| 01-Apr-2008 00:55 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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since i'm probably gonna be on the entire night. here's a personality quiz for those interested in finding out more about themselves. 
-------------------- If you were walking in a desert, and you had these 5 animals with you. The end is no where in sight, and you know you have to drop one to go ahead. Which would you drop. Horse, Lion, Monkey, Sheep, Cow. Going further, getting tired. Perhaps there is an oasis. perhaps not. Choose again. Drop one. Perhaps midway through? The oasis was only a mirage. Drop a third. You see the end. But you know you cannot make it with two animals. Choose the last one to drop. And which one will you walk out of the desert with. |
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| 01-Apr-2008 00:48 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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will concur with shplayer about the PRCs and the Indians. esp since i worked with them in the labs before. 10 out of 10 said that s'pore was a stepping stone to the US/back to china; and s'pore was just a convenient stop, a second choice to be accepted if their first choices didn't accept them. the malaysians, esp the chinese malaysians, would likely be the permanent stayers tho; esp if they came over as children and faced prejudice in their own country. question tho: what if it is better being a second rate citizen in a foreign country, than a first rate one in your own? Also: there is an assumption here: are singaporeans really being treated as first class citizens in our own country? there is the running joke about the airlines: that on Japan Airlines, the stewardesses serve the Caucasians, and the Japanese first. On Korean Air, they serve the Koreans, and the Caucasians first. On Cathay, they serve the HKers and the Caucasians first. On BA, they serve the English/Caucasians first. On SQ, they serve the Caucasians first. |
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| 31-Mar-2008 23:44 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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depends on which country they come from. gotta remember that 1/4 of the marriages here are to foreigners (malaysians included). so it's entirely likely they're doing so because of their spouses. would be interesting to hear ideas from the rest here tho. btw, have been meaning to post but keep forgetting: the DJIA is actually range bound this entire time: 11,800 to ~12,750 is the range. Unless we break either way, technically, it's range bound. The question tho is the STI. still wondering if it's window dressing or the herald of better days. |
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| 31-Mar-2008 23:19 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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lausk. perhaps. alternatively, it could simply be a case of personality mismatch. Singaporeans by and large, tend to be conservative minded, law-abiding, and steady people. They also have this view of never breaking the mold, and making snap judgments on others who do: for instance, just because someone wants to leave, they call them 'quitters', and in your words, "there must be something seriously wrong with oneself"? Why can't it simply be irreconcilable difference? that both parties have their strengths and weaknesses; but ultimately, they aren't meant as a match together. It doesn't negate the good nor bad of either side. "There is nothing either right or wrong but thinking makes it so."--Hamlet. They shun risk taking, and being different, being entrepreneurial. i mean, the very definition of entrepreneur, means going against the trend. what does it tell you about a country's psyche, that 'entrepreneurship' here has to be a government spearheaded thing? nothing good or bad either way: after all, being solid and stable is infinitely better in many ways: one never risks it all, so one never gains big yes, but never loses big either. One is, essentially, safe in one's entire life. The question then arises, for the next generation: Is that all you want to be in your entire life? It is never black nor white; there are no sides to be taken; it is, merely, where you lie upon the spectrum of differences. There is much that is good in this country, as well as much that is bad. That is true for all countries. It is what one is willing to accept, with clear eyes, and not blind loyalty. Faith that is blind is the shallowest faith of all. Patriotism that is blind is the most dangerous of all. If we must know what it is for which we die, then, similarly, we must know crystal clear what it is for which we live. Homo sapiens. Latin, meaning: Sentient being. How many of us actually, think? Or is it not as Aldous Huxley once said, that, "in the history of mankind, there have only been a few real men. What are the rest of us? Nothing but teachable animals." haha. elfie is certainly in a black mood upon returning. haha. apologies, all. :) |
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| 29-Mar-2008 22:19 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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Ministers of Singapore, by and large, come from affluent backgrounds. Yet they are paid an annual salary of S$1.9mil per annum, up from 1.2mil last year, due to the booming economy. 
I'm back, to this teeny, claustrophobic country called home. 
well, if nothing else, at least the stock market here treats me good.  microwaves: they work via resonance of water molecules. ie, the movement of the water in your food (set off precisely by the microwave) generates kinetic energy which translates into heat energy, hence warming up your food. I don't know if it causes cancer, but definitely some nutritional value will be lost: eg, the heat sensitive vitamins; plus, water loss. (fyi, if you wanna microwave your baos, pat them with water first, you'll get them nicely soft and steaming then. Same principle.  )
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| 29-Mar-2008 22:12 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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from techs (direct bar chart and price-volume history): not overbought yet. may still have some upside on mon; tho note that vol is starting to dip. the upside this time around is limited to 4-6c from last done; ie, 76-78c is your resistance for the next few trading days. fyi only. caveat applies. not vested. |
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| 27-Mar-2008 12:38 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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would have to agree with ipunter on this, actually. that's why i'd choose to play only warrants at pivot points, and stocks within the trend--meaning, after the event (the turning point) has occurred, then i'd play stocks. ie, for stocks, play an uptrend within an uptrend. (short up on a long up, rather than short up on a long down). This is to maximise benefit. Rule of thumb tho: because it is speculative action, one has to cut as fast as possible if the direction proves otherwise from your expected one. Will also say tho, that many have their own ways of playing; and neither's right nor wrong. As long as one makes money. That is all that matters.
stupidfool: long term players do make money; but this is not the time yet for them. In a volatile market, it is traders who make the most, because it is volatility which we thrive on. Longterm investors are after stable, slow growth. That's not for this current market.
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| 26-Mar-2008 08:53 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hey cashiertan, yeps, i've been buying and selling quick; don't hold beyond 3 days. Partly cos i'm on hols; so not always in front of the comp; prefer to lock in rather than risk a whole afternoon gone. longer term (2-4 weeks), calls may be the direction to go tho. Depends, we're kinda at the pivot point now. I'd say the signs are for up. My last trade today, then wait for market direction to turn before deciding which warrants to get. good luck! :) will likely be setting up forex acct when i get back. should have shorted the USD/JPY pair since it was 102. |
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| 25-Mar-2008 16:06 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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yeps. break in HK is good. :) trading: locked in my calls today (bought yest). note that standard pattern for DJIA is rally for three days, then start to peter out. The level to break is 12750. Sustained. Where there's hope is that gold is dropping; means global funds are shifting out of commodities. The question is if it is entering equities again, or staying in cash (ie, commods down, equities down. alt is equities up, commods down as the other scenario). Keep eye on gold as the weathervane. As long as it stays down, market will be up. wait for the pivot point to decide up or down direction to play. can expect some pullback tomorrow or day after. that's why i chose to lock in calls today. see how. |
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| 25-Mar-2008 10:24 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hullo pikachu! yeps, am on holiday. still am, actually. was supposed to be a short 4 day trip. instead extended to 16 days in all. hee. Am in HK. lovely place. It's spring, and all the flowers are in bloom. ...and i seem to trade better on hols than at home. geez. perhaps because less stress, and less time spent in front of the comp (so no overtrading). how've you been? :) and how's everyone doing? |
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| 25-Mar-2008 08:42 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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should break 3,000 today then fall back a little. DJIA rallies tend to last three days. follow accordingly if you happen to be in sti calls. heehee. DJIA: 12,750 = level to break. equivalent: STI = 3,000. ie, lock in around that level. Only if breaks on sustained increasing buy vol, do you choose to enter again. |
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| 19-Mar-2008 22:38 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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i did warn you about overheated RSI and big swings in gold prices... nope. told ya already, i let all go at 97+ about last week. hm. this is interesting tho: the qn now is: temporary retracement in gold, or is this the end of the bear? let's wait and see... anyone knows what big dow companies release results later this week/next? |
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| 19-Mar-2008 11:30 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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yeps! thanks for pointing out the error, tan-all-in. :) float is 1052019000 shares. so yes. 130mil then. which going by mgmt's guide, is achievable if it gets off the ground, to justify a px of 70c at PE 4x. bengster: i had already said so in my 2nd post: the coy is obviously going for a make-or-break. So it's a high risk (and hence high return) play. Currently, it's up based on expectations. If Apr 08 doesn't come through, one may see a fallout. If it succeeds, the px will go up. It's an either-or scenario for this stock. Investors need to decide for themselves if this is the kind of risk/reward ratio they can stomach. To recognise the risk for what it is, rather than just seeing the reward and buy! buy! buy!. Or seeing only the risk and sell! sell! sell! risk/reward always comes together. cos at the end of hte day, there's no such thing as a good or bad stock. It's only whether one makes, or loses. What odds will one take, as a FA investor, or a TA trader? That's for the individual to decide. My goal here is exactly that: lay out all the opinions, let people decide for themselves. It's the best way to end all the blame game that's been going on in this thread. :) ok, on hols now. heehee. byes to all! :) |
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| 19-Mar-2008 01:41 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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argh!! forgot the final forex conversion!! Apologies. *pai seh* 184.1 bil is in S$. In USD, that means ~US$133 bil. The rest of the calculations hold. |
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| 19-Mar-2008 01:38 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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edit: apologies for the typo: rerated NAV for biosensors should be 22.4c. I had written 0.224, that is actually in dollars. Just a minor note, based entirely on financial mathematics, for investors to get an idea of how much profit biosensors needs to make, to justify a low PE ratio: http://stocks.about.com/od/evaluatingstocks/a/pe.htm --for those interested to know more about FA calculations. For the forward PE of biosensors to be 4x: assuming current px is 70c in S$: => S$0.7 = approx US$ 0.51, taking exchange rate as 1.38. As stated in their AR, share float is ~1052 bil. Formula: PE ratio = share px/ EPS. (EPS = earnings per share). Hence, if PE ratio is to be 4x, means EPS of biosensors = 0.70/4 = 0.175. ie, from a current net loss of $0.01 per share, their products have to generate ~$0.175 worth of profit per share, to justify a forward PE of 4x. Share float ~ 1052bil. So in absolute dollar terms, biosensors needs to make a net profit of 0.175 x 1052 bil = US$184.1 billion dollars. To justify a rerating to PE < 4x. This is way above the company's own estimate of US$115mil, top end. Now, this is not impossible, as there are what are known as blockbuster drugs in the medical field: these are drugs which make over a billion dollars annually in sales. You'd know some of them: Prozac and Viagra. But in reality, these blockbusters are only a fistful in the entire medical industry. Caveat applies to all the above. I am simply pointing out the FA mathematics. Numbers don't lie when the calculations are shown out. Not vested, and not interested in vesting. Except perhaps to trade. hehe. |
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