Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 10-Apr-2008 12:45 |
SGX
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SGX
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eh brokenheartz, no shifu title pls. i'm just a small fry trying to make a living. hop over to cosco if ya wanna read on the daily action. knowledge is the best tool in the stock market. :) (i'm not always right tho. i just learn as i go along. and cut fast when i;m wrong. hahahha. ) |
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| 10-Apr-2008 12:43 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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cyjjerry, you're getting very good. :) yeps. it's never on whether a stock "deserves" it or not; never on fundamentals--fundamentals only dictate which stock, in the dips of a bear market, gets picked up fastest. But in a volatile trending market like this, it's pure technicals. Always, we need to see what is, not what we want to see. It's tied hands. There are BBs going long, BBs going short. That's what i mean, small fries, stay out. the couple of cents you can make is not worth the rollercoaster. fyi for those still in the dark: Citi, merril and ubs were the ones selling cosco earlier in the day. Shortists got in later, about 2.97. But consistently, even without the shortists: the long term pic is distribution. note: citi and merril have been selling off asia the past two days. which ties in with that the foreign banks need to report their results soon; so they'll sell off asia to beef up their profitbaility report. ie, when you read the ARs of these banks later, check to take out investment returns: you'll then see how much the subprime really lost for them, and the actual state of the global banks. |
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| 10-Apr-2008 12:36 |
SGX
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SGX
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haha, yes888, i have no idea who or what you're referring to. anw, action is not in sgx today. BBs can only concentrate on so few at one time. cosco for the day traders. foreign funds and local boys. crazy action. gotta love the game. winner takes all. always. small fries learn to run fast or be stampeded. i'm small, so i go small. :) |
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| 10-Apr-2008 12:32 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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sigh. BBs at play, and i mean VERY big BBs. check your counterparty; it isn't just local. small fries stay out; don't get caught in crossfire. even if it rebounds a bit later, it's a dead cat's bounce in long term prospect (3 mth): remember yzj? cosco is just starting its MACD downtrend. never play a short up on a long down. follow the trend. there are better counters to play. |
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| 10-Apr-2008 11:01 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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hehe. ozone, i see you're here too. ;) |
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| 10-Apr-2008 01:20 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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why are you guys buying this baby when it's overbought and turning downwards? 
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| 10-Apr-2008 00:31 |
SGX
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heya all, winsontkl: coming week as in next week? STI limit was capped at 3,200. it hit 3181 on fri/mon. The up from 2800+ was rapid and on low vol. by fibo, this gives retracement to ~2976 possible in the coming weeks. i'm already in sti puts, if that's any indication. (pls note tho that from a trading perspective, i'm ever ready to dump if i'm wrong. gotta rem that if it's very short term--intraday for instance that you're talking about, then, it's live data taht matters. fluid targets. ) I like sgx actually. its patterns are constant. Dangerous for intraday actually; cos with the masses of shortists and all, that's why the intraday volatiltiy is so high: greater fool theory, when the shortists cover back, they scramble all over one another, that's why you'll see it shoot up 10c in like, 5 min. personally, i prefer it for T+5. evens out the trend so that it's readable. fyi, sgx for the intraday ppl (subject to change based on tmrw's data, but accurate as of now, for the entire day): Wills at -37 only. Means not done tanking yet. OHLC: O--May have a small gap down/open abt same. H--high will likely be a couple of cents above the open (likely in the early session after the kneejerk sell down in opening mins). Thereaft L--watch the pivot of 7.65. it will either ping off that or break below, if it does, you have a gap down to 7.38 possible. close will likely be rapidly up as shortists scramble back tho. will close lower than the high. ie, as a technical person: if i were playing intraday short, i'd short from the morning high (you can tell when interest is flagging: if i had to peg a time, about 930 am or 1130 am), sell off about afternoon 245 pm. or by px: short about 7.9 to 7.68. I won't take the pivot because it's dangerous to. only if it breaks below 7.63 on heavy sell, then i'd do a second short. fyi only ah. note that i personally do not do shorts. Again, this is intraday: need to follow live data. What i'm giving above is just a guideline. For daily trade, gotta follow the live feed, sometimes, the BBs throw unexpected curveballs. remember sgx's results are out 14th. if all the bad news are factored in, it may do a surprise rebound before then. |
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| 09-Apr-2008 22:08 |
SGX
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SGX
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 yes888, i get your drift. 
i'm just a very small fishie swimming in the sea tho: don't get glomped down by the sharks, happy already. Just learn to swim with them, and pick up what scraps they are generous enough to give. little elves only need little beers. 
where ya from, or inconvenient to say? i can pretty much guess where most of the regulars here are from already.  ok. need to *zip* now.
cheers. |
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| 09-Apr-2008 21:04 |
SGX
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 ... just woke up. yea, DnApeh, bear trap. 
always get the directions confused hehe. it makes more sense to me to call it a bull trap, cos it's a trap for the bulls leh....thank goodness when i trade by myself i seldom have to verbalise anything. haha. anyone looking at HSI puts tomorrow? 23,700 seems like a viable level for it to dip to, tomorrow. 
note: all stated are only suggestions. standard line: you fire the gun, you bite the bullet. ok, dinner time!  gotta watch DJIA tonight. and man, i have GOT to open a forex account. close eyes and just short the US/GBP and US/Euro pairs man.  |
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| 09-Apr-2008 16:17 |
SGX
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zzz. ok. locked out my puts earlier at 27.5c. show over liao. gonna go now. excuse me....little elves need their rest. hahaa. happy trading, people!
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| 09-Apr-2008 14:50 |
SGX
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SGX
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k need to watch so rapid post: if sgx can close below 7.98 today, hold the puts. 7.65 possible then. fyi for those who went in. shortists tho, may like to cover back. sgx releases results 14/4. may go either way. not worth the risk to me. market past week was a beautiful bull trap. |
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| 09-Apr-2008 14:41 |
SGX
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btw, honda, warrants are VERY RISKY instruments. i cannot overemphasize that. one can make a lot, yes, but you can also lose a lot. i wouldn't advise it for beginners actually. for myself, i set very strict stop loss levels for warrants; and i only enter at pivot points. straddle: aka strangles. You can buy both puts and calls on a same stock/index. a technique used by traders for a very volatile stock. so when it goes up, you lock in the call; when it goes down, you lock in the put. So right now, looking at the sti, buy short term calls and long term puts. how to read a warrant: eg, STI3000BNPePW080423 (random numbers ah, i don't know if there's really such a warrant haha): STI = what the warrant is derived from. 3000 = its strike level. BNP = name of issuer e = European style warrant. as opposed to american. ie, you can only convert the warrant back to the issuer on expiry, rather than anytime you wish. Most s'pore listed warrants are e warrants. Altho, if like me, you're just for trading, ya don't gotta bother about such stuff. PW/CW = put warrant or call warrant. 080423 = expiry date of the warrant. ie, 23rd april 2008. for some reason they like to stick the numbers backwards, don't ask me why. haha. note the time decay factor: as warrants get closer to expiry date, the vol gets less, and the price changes gets less. so advisable to not take a warrant too close to expiry date (most warrants are not tradable abt 1 week before their expiry date). And note: not necessarily true that cheaper warrants are better. you need to look for one close to your strike price/level, and have sufficient liquidity for trading. eg, if upon the same stock, one warrant is at 5c, potential to hit 7c, but lots traded is only 50; cf with another warrant at 8c, with potential to hit 10c but lots traded is 500, i'd take the latter. ya don't wanna get stuck holding fistfuls of warrants. and as we talk, sgx is pinging off 8.1. wait and see. |
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| 09-Apr-2008 14:32 |
SGX
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other info fyi: market was actually at the pivot pt on apr 4/apr 7. ie, change in direction likely. pending the DJIA too: whose upper limit was 12,750. DJIA hit close to 12,700 a couple of days back, but it was on low vol. Key thing to note: gold then recovered while DJIA/STI was going up. I believe i posted on the gold thread then: MS and citigroup were controlling and buying gold. gold tends to move counter to the market. So when markets are up on low vol, and gold starts going up, that's your sign of an unsustainable rally. right now tho: gold is dropping a little. ie, market direction is undecided. If up, DJIA is to 13,500. If down, means the fifth wave has ended, slide to 12,000 at least. Correlate the STI to DJIA: there's a rough correlation that can be used. Altho HSI and SCI also affect the STI. watch Dow futures too for a gauge in direction. STI has surprisingly strong support at 3,100 tho. wait to see if this is broken or the pinging off level. for sgx itself, be prep for sudden movement ard 3 pm today. perhaps. haha. each stock has its own psychology; this then creates its trends. if the trends can be fixed into patterns, that's a good stock for TA. if not, avoid. |
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| 09-Apr-2008 14:24 |
SGX
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heya honda and brokenheartz (eh...not a very auspicious name for trading, isn't it? :P )-- warrants are essentially derivatives on stocks. you buy a call warrant if you expect the mother stock to go up; put if you expect it to go down. I don't do shorting myself, since esp for sgx, for the 8+ k you risk per counter, you only get back ~300-400, if you're good. Plus: too volatile. I like trades to last at least a day. Note that warrants are very, very risky though: because for every movement in the mother stock, there's greater gyration in the warrant. other pts: -you do not always buy warrants. you buy them only at pivot points (ie, where major change of direction is likely to occur). o/w, it's more worth to play the mother stock. So for SGX, if you refer to its charts from 11 feb to now: SGX's resistance was is ~9.3 (the highest pt before the slide in Mar). But when it shot up from 6.45 to 9, it did so on low vol, and didn't manage to break 9. Williams showed way overbought then: apr 4 and 7 (apr 4th was when i entered the put). ie, it's only a matter of time before SGX went down. The support i calculate this time around is abt 8.05. 7.8 is the lowest possible. looking at its trend, while it does fantastic intbraday movements of up to 50c a day, in dollar for dollar calculation, that's not worth to catch the full ride, which will take days. Hence i opted for the puts. yah. i'm pure technical, 3 mths is a long time for me. tho i can read fundamentals if i want to: shplayer taught me this. :) |
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| 09-Apr-2008 12:29 |
SGX
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not shorting but in sgx puts. mblepw080904 @ 22.5c. will not be loading up more. for shortists: mother stock: your coast is clear to at least 8.03 based on current market depth (very thin buy support). afternoon is when the real tanking will begin, now that the naked shorts have been cleared. fyi only; pls note this counter is very volatile. |
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| 08-Apr-2008 17:22 |
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lol. am sorry i missed this whole thing on SJ. how many lots does viruz has? gotta love the camaraderie on this counter. lol. |
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| 08-Apr-2008 17:10 |
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haha, viruz, if djia tanks tonight and sgx follows, i'm gonna be locking out too man. in this kind of market, ye2 chang2 meng4 duo1. prudence is always better. may have gap down tmrw. |
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| 08-Apr-2008 17:06 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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*grin* everything ozone2002 said.  locked out chinaenergy and golden agri this morn.
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| 08-Apr-2008 17:05 |
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ooh yea. am i the only one in puts for this baby? 7.94 is the support for tmrw. fyi for the shortists.
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| 08-Apr-2008 13:35 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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today's a major day for the DJIA. 2 impt news out. it's forming either short term triple bottom (bullish), or mid term M (bearish). still maintain it needs to break 12,750 on increasing vol for breakout to occur to 13,500. until then, considering gold has been up, the likelihood is sideways to down. 178investors has a good strat there tho. focus on longer term may be safer for small players. |
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