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| 19-Sep-2010 16:53 |
All-S Equities Fin
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SINGAPORE BANKS - UOB + OCBC + DBS
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UOB [U11.SES] |
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| 19-Sep-2010 16:50 |
All-S Equities Fin
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SINGAPORE BANKS - UOB + OCBC + DBS
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OCBC [O39.SI] |
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| 19-Sep-2010 16:46 |
All-S Equities Fin
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SINGAPORE BANKS - UOB + OCBC + DBS
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DBS [D05] |
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| 19-Sep-2010 16:29 |
Genting Sing
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GenSp starts to move up again
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1st Brigade kIngmakers 一0八好汉 顺序: 之 「天罡星」三十六员:
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| 19-Sep-2010 16:15 |
Healthway Med
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healthway, healthy?
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http://www.nextinsight.biz/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/903-2010-/2971-raffles-medical-thomson-parkway-healthway-what-stanchart-says-about-them 
Source: Standard Chartered, Sept 16
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| 19-Sep-2010 16:13 |
Healthway Med
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healthway, healthy?
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Excerpts from Standard Chartered Equity Research's 120-page report published this morning on the Singapore healthcare sector Analysts: Stephen Hui, Magnus Gunn, Pauline Lee In this note, we provide an analysis of the growth drivers for healthcare spending that goes beyond traditional demographics. Based on our conclusions from this analysis, we have a high degree of confidence in the ability of certain business models to sustain future earnings growth, which should translate into continued long-term alpha for appropriately positioned investors. Our analysis shows the overall market for private tertiary healthcare spending in Singapore growing at a 7% CAGR until 2020E: The drivers are: (1) population growth of 2%, (2) impact from an aging population of 1.4% and (3) a shift towards private healthcare at 0.4%. We anticipate the biggest driver will come from a fourth factor: demand for ever more specialist services and care (revenue intensity per patient), which we expect to persist at 3% until 2020. Our 7% estimate for tertiary healthcare spending refers to the overall market and we estimate that certain players, such as Raffles, will sustain far higher growth rates. 
Source: Standard Chartered, Sept 16.
We believe direct competition will remain limited due to strong market segmentation, especially for two of the three private hospital operators: Raffles Medical (Raffles), which is the leader in the corporate segment and Thomson Medical (Thomson), which specialises in women and children. For Parkway Holdings (Parkway), the dominant provider in the high-end patient market, we believe the completion of the Farrer Park Hospital in 2012/2013 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting 2012/2013 end_of_the_skype_highlighting will signal increased competition ahead, although we do not anticipate a significant impact. We expect the growth in the foreign patient market will return as the global economy recovers, providing an additional growth driver. The key read across from our visits to three listed ASEAN hospital operators is that there is limited direct competition with Singapore as they largely target different source countries. For the Indonesian market, Singapore has a durable competitive advantage due to proximity and established relationships. Recommendations: We have OUTPERFORM ratings on Raffles and Thomson and IN-LINE ratings on Parkway and Healthway. In our view, Raffles has the most robust and defensive business model and has operating leverage through expansion of its specialist services. We like Thomsons specialty leadership in birth deliveries and its attractive valuations. We downgrade Parkway from OUTPERFORM to IN-LINE to reflect the stocks current high valuations. Healthway is expanding aggressively and has strong potential, in our view, but given recent staffing issues we will await further execution before taking a more positive view.
Source: Standard Chartered, Sept 16
* Our fair value of S$2.5 for Raffles offers potential upside of 17%. The stock is trading on 21x 2011E and our fair value is based on a PER target multiple of 25x 2011E. Raffles previous peak valuation was in January 2008 at a forward PER of 25x. Our DCF valuation results in a fair value closer to S$2.8. We like Raffles for its robust and defensive business model and its operating leverage through the expansion of its specialist services. In 2009, Raffles hospital business (hospital and specialist services) posted an operating margin of 26% compared with 8% for its primary services. As the group continues to expand its specialist services, we expect continued margin expansion. 
Allan Yeo, CEO, Thomson Medical. NextInsight file photo
Thomson hospital is running at near full occupancy and this may present concerns on its future growth profile. But, our analysis shows that Thomson should still have room to grow.Together with its attractive valuations, we believe there is significant upside to its share price. * Our IN-LINE rating for Parkway is based on valuations. Our fair value of S$4 translates to PER target multiple of 29x 2011E. The stock is currently trading on 27x PER 2011E on our core earnings estimate which strips out the gain from sales of the companys Novena medicalsuites. In July 2007, the stock had traded at PER 40x 12-month forward earnings. Our target multiple is at a discount to peak valuations as our DCF shows fair value of S$4.34, offering only 13% upside (in contrast, Raffles DCF fair value offers over 30% potential upside). In our view, Parkway is the pre-eminent healthcare franchise in Asia due to its dominant position in Singapore and wide geographical reach. We believe the upcoming Parkway Novena hospital will strengthen the groups position in its home market but uncertainties remain as to the hospitals operating performance. * Our IN-LINE rating for Healthway stems from our wait and see approach. We believe Healthway has tremendous potential through its aggressive expansion of its services in Singapore and China. But in 1H 2010, its profit fell by 82% and management has advised this was due to the departure of key specialists and the costs associated with new clinics. In our view, the situation for Healthway is rather binary. If its new clinics succeed in building up a customer base, the share price would have significant upside. If it does not execute, its share price has significant downside potential as the stock is now trading at PER of 30x 2011E, which we believe already factors in a sharp bounce in profit. 
A suite at Thomson Medical Centre. Photo: Company
The investment case for healthcare in Singapore is exceptionally robust, in our opinion. |
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| 19-Sep-2010 15:43 |
Others
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TRADE FREELY & LiVE LONGER
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| 19-Sep-2010 15:41 |
Others
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TRADE FREELY & LiVE LONGER
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三 吉 星 福 禄 寿 
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| 19-Sep-2010 15:32 |
Others
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TRADE FREELY & LiVE LONGER
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敬贡三柱香 
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| 19-Sep-2010 15:24 |
Others
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TRADE FREELY & LiVE LONGER
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授人以鱼，不如 授人以渔
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| 19-Sep-2010 15:02 |
Others
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TRADE FREELY & LiVE LONGER
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MERMAIDS' FISHERMAN 
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| 19-Sep-2010 14:47 |
Others
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TRADE FREELY & LiVE LONGER
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<<< Berhad SP HK >>> 
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| 19-Sep-2010 14:39 |
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MalaysIa * sIngapOre * hOng kOng |
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| 19-Sep-2010 14:30 |
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TRADE FREELY & LiVE LONGER
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GENTING trIO 
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| 19-Sep-2010 14:11 |
Others
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| 19-Sep-2010 14:04 |
Others
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TRADE FREELY & LiVE LONGER
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GENTING TWIN PEAKS |
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| 19-Sep-2010 13:58 |
Others
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pressUre And paIns |
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| 19-Sep-2010 13:53 |
Genting HK USD
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Genting HK US$
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| 19-Sep-2010 13:06 |
Trading Techniques
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! ! ! ! Trading Seminars ! ! ! !
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Sunday: 19 SEP 2010 SUNDAY TIMES Top News Story
InvestBeware talk of easy moneyOn a recent weekday evening, 50 people sat in a hotel function room, attending a preview seminar on foreign exchange (forex) trading.TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE |
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| 19-Sep-2010 13:02 |
Trading Techniques
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! ! ! ! Trading Seminars ! ! ! !
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Saturday: 18 SEPTEMBER 2010 2pm ~ 5pm GLOBAL ETFs: EXPLOITING THE UNTAPPED Raffles City Convention Centre Level 4 STAMFORD ROOM OCBC Securities + BLACK ROCK [World Leader in ETFs] |
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