Latest Posts By ozone2002
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| 18-Aug-2009 22:45 |
Citic Envirotech
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United Envirotech
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looking at the chart looks like 16c is da support.. |
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| 17-Aug-2009 22:51 |
Midas
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Midas
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Midas down on such low vol (pro $$ not sellin).. i'm not worried abt this share @ all.. | ||
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| 17-Aug-2009 22:44 |
Citic Envirotech
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United Envirotech
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close 16c.. tmr Q 14 & 15c..keke accumulate on dip! | ||
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| 17-Aug-2009 14:58 |
Midas
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Midas
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if there's a divergence between the results and the price..e.g profits outstanding and price goes down..i'll buy.. e.g if profits bad and price goes up..i'll sell.. |
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| 17-Aug-2009 14:44 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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this correction is long overdue.. in order to move forward u to have to take a step back.. |
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| 16-Aug-2009 13:46 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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All these information point to the fact that the economy is no good. As an investor, u are in control of the decision u want to make. U want to believe what the markets tell u or do u want to believe what the real economy is actually going thru..it's all up to u.. What goes on in the markets mask reality cos we get so caught up with it, we fail to apply common sense.. which is what we all have but fail to utilize when the euphoria/fear starts More Bank Failures To Come Staying with the banking crisis theme, here is a story that indicates the worst may be ahead of us as far as bank failures. Yesterday's seizure of Colonial Bank was the 6th largest failure in US history. I expect that Guaranty Bank in Texas may be next. Rumors of a "bank holiday" being declared in September are growing louder. It makes sense to take some preventative action by having some cash in your home and stocking up on esential groceries and medicine just in case. If a bank holiday is declared all hell will break loose in this country. Let's all hope that these rumors are just that, rumors.-Lou Toxic Loans Topping 5% May Push 150 Banks to Point of No Return More than 150 publicly traded U.S. lenders own nonperforming loans that equal 5 percent or more of their holdings, a level that former regulators say can wipe out a bank’s equity and threaten its survival. The number of banks exceeding the threshold more than doubled in the year through June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, as real estate and credit-card defaults surged. Almost 300 reported 3 percent or more of their loans were nonperforming, a term for commercial and consumer debt that has stopped collecting interest or will no longer be paid in full. The biggest banks with nonperforming loans of at least 5 percent include Wisconsin’s Marshall & Ilsley Corp. and Georgia’s Synovus Financial Corp., according to Bloomberg data. Among those exceeding 10 percent, the biggest in the 50 U.S. states was Michigan’s Flagstar Bancorp. All said in second- quarter filings they’re “well-capitalized” by regulatory standards, which means they’re considered financially sound. “At a 3 percent level, I’d be concerned that there’s some underlying issue, and if they’re at 5 percent, chances are regulators have them classified as being in unsafe and unsound condition,” said Walter Mix, former commissioner of the California Department of Financial Institutions, and now a managing director of consulting firm LECG in Los Angeles. He wasn’t commenting on any specific banks. Missed payments by consumers, builders and small businesses pushed 72 lenders into failure this year, the most since 1992. More collapses may lie ahead as the recession causes increased defaults and swells the confidential U.S. list of “problem banks,” which stood at 305 in the first quarter. |
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| 16-Aug-2009 10:29 |
Citic Envirotech
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United Envirotech
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did u see the analyst report? I don't really give a damn abt analyst report but at least it gives me more assurance to accumulate more on dips.. look at the target price he set. This guy predicted 15c from his last report on Utd..so this target price is definitely reachable.. Accumulate on dips..!! 55% upside hahaha..
http://www.remisiers.org/research//UENV_1QFY10_results_update.pdf
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| 15-Aug-2009 19:06 |
SingTel
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Singtel Bullish???
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Today another up bar .. previous day was a down bar with pretty high vol.. pro $$ is collectin this share.. and looks like they are gonna push this up.. vested $3.2
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| 15-Aug-2009 16:01 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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its known as the greater fool theory.. go google it :) |
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| 15-Aug-2009 13:50 |
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Remember the story on dark pools? Where SGX gave the green light.. WHERE"S the transparency????? WHy hide it from the investors like u and me? only benefit i see is for SGX!.. Dark pools Flash trading relies upon access to uncharted pools of liquidity for execution, commonly known as dark pools. Dark pools are essentially non-displayed collections of liquidity, which are used to by institutions to execute large block orders off-exchanges while minimizing adverse price impact. HFT use dark pools by splitting large, “parent” block orders into smaller “child” orders, which are then exposed to these areas of non-displayed dark liquidity so as to avoid arousing attention and execute an order with minimize adverse price impact. As with flash trading, the lack of transparency characteristic of dark pools has attracted considerable contention recently. Despite this, dark pools have become an increasingly popular phenomenon; according to Rosenblatt Securities, dark pools accounted for 7% of all U.S. trades in June. While there is substantial evidence to support the notion that dark liquidity improves order execution, as its supporters claim (there are arguments to the contrary as well), other, more dubious questions persist, most notably regarding overlooked costs that result from the use of dark pools. Dark pool participants use public bids and offers as reference points to conduct their off-record transactions without having to display their private, dark bids and offers. While this may provide some benefit as previously identified, it incetivizes the use of dark liquidity, taking away vital liquidity from public exchanges, resulting in increases in public bid and offer differentials and ultimately the mitigating the efforts of public price discovery. This problem is increasingly exacerbated as the popularity of dark pools continues to grow. Robert Greifeld, president and CEO of the Nasdaq Stock Market has joined the chorus demanding a more transparent answer to the tangible costs of HFT and dark liquidity. He recently stated: Flash orders, which are a fundamental part of high-frequency trading, are but one symptom of the current evolving market structure. Nasdaq OMX is concerned that the securities industry appears willing to accept more and more ‘darkness’ and limits on the availability of order information. Instead, the policy goal should be clear: to eliminate any order types or market structure policies that do not contribute to public price formation and market transparency. (…) The industry has a unique opportunity at this time to take a hard look at dark order types and the underlying market structure issues that do not support public price information. Even SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro has noted the unsustainable model of dark liquidity, confirming that the SEC is looking into the dark pool realm. She recently stated in a WSJ interview: It is ironic that dark pools rely primarily on the price discovery provided by the public markets to run their trading mechanisms, yet if dark pool volume were to continue to expand indefinitely, their success could threaten the very price discovery function on which their existence depends. While rational proponents of market liquidity welcome this sentiment, the SEC has yet to take meaningful action regarding the use of dark liquidity, creating a moral hazard so pervasive, its victims include the stock exchanges themselves. In the same WSJ interview, Robert Greifeld noted the conflicted position of markets like Nasdaq, which on one hand wish to produce efficient, transparent, and fair markets, but pragmatically cannot do so if they continue to lose market share to rivals who allow HFT. He states: From a philosophical point of view we think the dark orders have to be looked at, ours included, but from a pragmatic point of view, we need to compete with the rules that exist at the time |
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| 15-Aug-2009 13:29 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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The Market Bubble Is About to Pop You may find it hard to resist going whole-hog into the market these days, especially as we are likely to get a very strong third quarter. By some estimates, growth could be 4%. It could even reach 6%. However, all the growth we'll see will be the result of unsustainable factors such as inventory accumulation, car production increases (due to the “cash for clunkers” program), etc. With this in mind, you must resist the urge to increase your weighting in stocks. Long-term, we still face substantial headwinds. But our feeling is, if the market bubble does pop, it will likely be the last pop. It's true that irrational markets can rise, and in doing so attract more irrationality. But in the end there will be some event, some realization, that higher earnings (the ultimate motivator of stock prices) will not show up. We're not smart enough to know exactly when the catalyst for this realization will arise, but we do have a handle on why future earnings will not measure up by the first quarter of 2010, or perhaps as early as the fourth quarter of 2009. We also believe the issues with earnings will be serious enough to derail today's historically strong market rally. Looking at stock market commentary, we continue to be amazed that no one mentions commodities. Bloomberg, Barron’s, and other major media invariably deal with commodities and stocks in separate columns and articles. Never do they discuss commodities and stocks together, in the context of their interrelationship. We think this is a serious mistake, for nothing matters more to the outlook for stock prices than commodities these days. And there's no asset group more important for you to own on a long-term basis than commodity plays. Just to remind you, the commodity plays we continue to recommend are Transocean (RIG), Nabors (NBR), Mosaic (MOS), Fluor (FLR), Petrobras (PBR), Potash (POT), National Oilwell Varco (NOV), Chevron (CVX), and FPL Group (FPL) – the latter two being our most heavily weighted. In addition to commodities, which are used to make things, we also like one in particular, the one that functions as currency, and that’s gold... SLOW GROWTH AND HIGHER PRICES ARE IN STORE Over the past 45 years, there has been an interesting relationship between growth and commodities, in which the average change in commodity prices has roughly equaled the average change in GDP. In the short term, a rising GDP tends to lead to higher commodity prices. In the longer term, when GDP rises sharply, commodity prices tend to stay flat or fall. And when commodity prices rise quickly, GDP tends to struggle. The 1970s were a notable time when we had soaring commodity prices which short-circuited GDP gains. We had a massive recession between 1973 and 1975 on the heels of OPEC's engineering a massive hike in oil prices. Commodity prices then moderated, but began rising again in the late 1970s. It took a stalwart Fed Chairman, Paul Volcker, to finally halt commodity prices by raising interest rates dramatically, which reduced GDP and allowed more commodity supplies to come on stream. He set the stage for low to negative commodity price growth and a very strong market throughout the 1980s and 1990s. The 2000s, however, have told a different story. Stocks have dramatically underperformed their long-term average. In fact, the years from 1997 to 2007 may have been the worst ever in real terms. During that period, commodities soared. GDP growth, which until recently looked to be on a strong trajectory, faltered. The last time we saw both the 6-year growth in GDP and the 3-quarter growth in GDP above their averages at the same time was back in 2000. In other words, it's almost been a decade since we've seen above average GDP growth, both short and long-term, simultaneously. (In fact, it's been four years since we've had even short-term GDP growth above average.) During this long period of slow GDP growth, commodity prices have surged. By the 2nd quarter of 2008, they had risen nearly 185% over a 6-year period. That's a bigger gain than we saw in 1973-4. Bear in mind that this past decade has not been marked by commodity shortfalls due to political events, as we had in the 1970s. Commodity prices have risen purely as a result of growth – but not growth within the U.S. As for the most recent 3-quarter period, even assuming growth of 6% during the 3rd quarter of this year (admittedly a reach), the 3-quarter growth rate will still be negative. Yet commodity prices for the same period will have risen 16%. It's unheard of for commodity price growth to be a standard deviation above the mean in the context of negative economic growth! Plus, 6-year commodity price growth is close to 75%, which is off the charts and almost unbelievable given the weakness of the U.S. economy and that of the entire developed world! Our point is that the U.S. has become a non-player in the commodity dynamic. The real players are the emerging markets, which continue to grow like crazy. Indonesia, for instance, will likely grow at an annual rate of 5-6% for the next 6 quarters. China and India will grow even faster. The emerging nations have become more important factors than the developed nations. Nearly 100% of world growth over the next 6-8 quarters will likely come from the emerging markets. And as the emerging markets become bigger and bigger players, their need for commodities will become even greater. This is bad news for the U.S. High commodity prices caused growth in the U.S. to be subdued during the 2000s. Now, with the emerging markets growing larger and driving commodity prices higher, U.S. growth will be even more restrained. Also holding down U.S. growth for some time will be the very tired U.S. consumer, who accounted for over 100% of U.S. growth during the 2000s. It's not a pretty picture. Nonetheless, it is clear that, for the next 10 years or more, money will be made by those who invest in the hard stuff – commodities – and the emerging markets. Keep your eye on this big picture... WHO'S THE GREATEST FOOL? As we said above, stocks could rise a little, but we are caught in a “greater fool” market. Irrational markets can always become a little more irrational. In such a market, many people can foolishly buy overvalued stocks and sell them at even more overvalued prices, on the theory that there's always a “greater fool” to buy them. Of course, the danger is that you could turn out to be the greatest fool of all, and be left holding too many shares when the bubble pops. We don't want you to be caught in that trap. We want you to look back on this period and be glad someone warned you in time. Everything tells us that we are headed for major trouble in the stock market, and that our economy is far from being out of the woods. You are better off being selective and focusing very strongly in commodity and emerging market plays. |
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| 15-Aug-2009 13:22 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Insiders Continue to Sell, Sell, Sell We have to send a tip of the hat, to ultra popular finance blogger at Zerohedge.com for alerting us to the huge number of insiders who are selling off stock in their companies. We have noted this sort of activity over the last few months and it appears that corporate insiders are selling with increased fervor. In late April (Insiders Are Selling Into the Rally), insiders were selling at a rate of 8.3 times the amount that insiders were buying. When we revisited the issue about two months later in June (More Evidence of Skepticism from Insiders), insiders had become even more bearish as they were selling at a rate of 9 times for each insider buy. Now, we are nearly two months later and the ratio of sellers to buyers continues to expand. In the last week, corporate insiders sold 13.6 times more than insiders bought according to information compiled by Finviz. In terms of per transaction value, the sellers are being more aggressive than the buyers as well. Of course, this is not necessarily a sign that the market is about to falter. However, it is always interesting to see what the insiders are doing because they are some of the very most informed investors. Management may be sounding an optimistic tone on many conference calls, but actions speak louder than words. Clearly, the trends are suggesting that stocks are overbought right now, and insiders are lowering their exposure to risk. |
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| 15-Aug-2009 13:18 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Throughout time, the markets have gone through ups, downs, peaks, valleys, highs and lows. Mark Twain said, "History does not repeat exactly, however, often it rhymes." This bear market, which began on October 11, 2008, is now being compared to the 1929 stock crash, which consequentially lead to the great depression. Perhaps this is a repeat of what took place some eighty years ago. In my personal studies of bear markets going back to the 1800's, it seems as if there is one common denominator for the cause, the over extension of credit. The longer the period of prosperity, the more severe the decline. Many believe the most recent bull market began in 1982 with the Reagan administration. By looking at the charts, this looks very likely. From the Reagan era all the way up to year 2000, the market took off, although it did encounter some bumps along the road (1987 to mention a one). The market seemed to recover from the savings and loan crisis, junk bonds and LBO's, late 1980's housing crisis, cold war, Long Term Capital blowup, the tech bubble, Enron, MCI Worldcom, Adelphia, September 11th, and now the most recent subprime loans, derivatives and credit bubble. There is a lot more that could have been put on that list but for the scope of this writing those will suffice. With all of these events taking place over the last 25 years and the markets still managing to make new highs into 2007, is it any wonder that the economy is where it is today, in crisis? Let's examine some bear markets from the past and see how this one matches up to history. The market crashed in 1857, but began its decline in the 1856 peak. A slight recovery took place in 1859 and dropped again in 1861. In 1862, it recovered until 1865(Civil War). In 1865 the market declined until 1871, which lasted until 1873. In 1873 the market crashed and the U.S. went into a depression that lasted into 1879. This was a 6 year depression. This historical bear market looks very similar to the market of today. The causes of each are always very similar and this bear market is no exception. If this time factor were to repeat that would call for the current bear market to bottom in 2013, this certainly looks like a possibility. Now let's examine the 1929 stock crash. The 1929 market crash was a result of easy credit and over speculation which is exactly what we are witnessing today. This decline lasted until 1933 before slightly recovering. Many traders believe a real recovery did not happen until 1942(WWII). That being the case then the next bull market did not occur for another 13 years. Which bear market is this? Personally, I believe that this bear market began in 2000. However, with all the intervention taking place the market was never allowed to function as it should and the business cycle was forced into a massive bubble for the second time. After the 2000 bear market began, interest rates were lowered to 1% causing a huge credit bubble. The bear market that was supposed to begin in 2000, was stalled. We are now seeing it but because of the stall, it is far worse. Instead of the bear decline generally being half the length of the bull market it now gets extended. 2000 minus 1982 equals 18 years. Therefore, the bear market that followed should have lasted 9 years and would be coming to an end this year. However, we now need to extend out to 2007. Using 2007 and subtracting 1982 gives us 25 years. Half of 25 is 12.5 years and that simple calculation puts this bear market into late 2012-2013 before a real recovery takes place. As long as modern man consistently tries to advance in society, the business cycle should ultimately recover. It is when man interferes with the system that these problems can last longer, not function normally and will be much more severe. Some may argue that it is better to get hit hard and fast and begin a recovery. However, this constant interference is death by a thousand razor cuts and prolongs the bear. In 2004, I recall reading a statement made by the late great trader and technician Sir John Templeton. He simply stated that housing prices should not be any higher than 1991 levels and will ultimately go back to those prices. Most traders and investors that I discussed this with said he was old and probably suffering from memory loss. It is now evident that he was dead on accurate and as sharp as ever. History speaks words of wisdom in plentiful doses. Hopefully future generations will be willing to obtain some of this wisdom and learn from the greats before them. Source: Nicholas Santiago, |
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| 15-Aug-2009 12:33 |
Swiber
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Swiber
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Reason for the selldown is bcos DBS issued a report on swiber..stating its a SELL!.. Target price 73c.. |
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| 15-Aug-2009 09:41 |
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Nice article i found.. pls heed the advice..not everything is as rosy as it seems RBS uber-bear issues fresh alert on global stock markets Three-month slide could hit record lows, Royal Bank of Scotland chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah predicts. Britain's Uber-bear is growling again. After predicting a torrid "relief rally" over the early summer, Bob Janjuah at Royal Bank of Scotland is advising clients to take profits in global equity and commodity markets and prepare for another storm as winter nears. "We are now in the middle of a parabolic spike up," he said in his latest confidential note to clients. "I expect this risk rally to continue into – and maybe through – a large part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September 'tipping zone', driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into markets." The key indicators to watch are business spending on equipment (Capex), incomes, jobs, and profits. Only a "surge higher" in these gauges can justify current asset prices. Results that are merely "less bad" will not suffice. He expects global stock markets to test their March lows, and probably worse. The slide could last three months. "A move to new lows is highly likely," he said. Mr Janjuah, RBS's chief credit strategist, has a loyal following in the City. He was one of the very few analysts to speak out early about the dangerous excesses of the credit bubble. He then made waves in the summer of 2008 by issuing a global crash alert, giving warning that a "very nasty period is soon to be upon us" as – indeed it was. Lehman Brothers and AIG imploded weeks later. This time he expects the S&P 500 index of US equities to reach the "mid 500s", almost halving from current levels near 1000. Such a fall would take London's FTSE 100 to around 2,500. The iTraxx Crossover index measuring spreads on low-grade European debt will double to 1250. Mr Janjuah advises investors to seek safety in 10-year German bonds in late August or early September. While media headlines have played up the short-term bounce of corporate earnings, Mr Janjuah said this is a statistical illusion. Profits were in reality down 20pc in the second quarter from the year before. They cannot rise much as the West slowly purges debt and adjusts to record over-capacity. "Investors are again being sucked back into the game where 'markets make opinions', where 'excess liquidity' is the driving investment rationale. "The last two Augusts proved to be pivotal turning points: August 2007 being the proverbial 'head-fake' when everyone wanted to believe that policy-makers had seen off the credit disaster at the pass, and August 2008 being the calm before the utter collapse of Sept/Oct/Nov… 3rd time lucky anyone?" |
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| 15-Aug-2009 09:12 |
Midas
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Midas
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wow..nice cups..gettin bigger each time.. wonder if ya doing advertisement for those bust enhancements companies..keke |
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| 14-Aug-2009 11:56 |
Citic Envirotech
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United Envirotech
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16.5 on low vol.. accumulate | ||
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| 14-Aug-2009 09:09 |
Olam Intl
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Ramping up its capex
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2.6 in 10 mins..very nice quick scalp to start the morning.. :)
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| 13-Aug-2009 23:11 |
Olam Intl
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Ramping up its capex
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yeah look at the up bar today on huge ass vol!.. indicators also pointing upwards..looking for a scalp tomorrow.. likely to reach $2.6! DYODD |
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| 13-Aug-2009 23:05 |
AusGroup
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AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m
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Today's down bar is narrow and low vol.. i wouldn't worry abt today's blip.. look forward to higher vol on up bars..to signal further upside.. |
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