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Latest Posts By pharoah88 - Supreme      About pharoah88
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10-Oct-2010 10:49 User Research/Opinions   /   |||||||| LONG |||||||| ....shOrt....       Go to Message
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LONG        Or    shOrt

REAL        Or    fake

TRUTH        Or    Lie  [lIe] 
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09-Oct-2010 18:39 User Research/Opinions   /   ^ Productivity ^ [Effecacy Efficiency Economy]       Go to Message
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Teleconferencing made natural
October 07, 2010 Thursday, 03:53 PM
Grace Chng experiences Umi Telepresence


 

IN SAN FRANCISCO

I SAW Umi Telepresence when it was launched in San Francisco on Oct 6 in what was previously a bank branch office turned into an events centre.

The video calls must be sent or received on a HD TV. A remote calls up a clover leaf like icon which guides you to make calls, lets you scroll through your contact list or see how many video calls you missed.

The video images of the two people in the Umi call looked sharp and clear. Sitting on a sofa, about 6m away from the HD TV set, Ms Nancy Galyed, a senior manager with the Umi marketing team, did not have to shout to be heard by the other party she was calling. She spoke normally and the conversations were clear. When the other party moved about, their actions were smooth and not jerky.

The TV chimes when a video call is received. If the chooser answers it, then the TV is cut off at that point in time.

Apart from talking live with loved ones, users can also leave video messages and videos recorded earlier. It can among other things, do auto-focus, auto white light balance, pan, tilt and zoom in or zoom out.

Callers can leave a video message that can be retrieved on the TV or a PC or a mobile phone. For privacy, there is a shutter on the camera that blocks the video cam, leaving just audio coming from the home. The Umi can store up to 100 minutes of HD video.

Users outside of the United States do not need to wait until Umi is available in their countries. Since the system is compatible with Google TV, anyone using Google TV can call a Umi user.

Cisco wants to work with other companies to promote HD video calls but this will take time for technical issues to be sorted out.

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09-Oct-2010 18:29 Fixed Deposits   /   ^ GOLD & SILVER ^       Go to Message
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Money

Home > Breaking News > Money > Story

Oct 5, 2010

Super-rich buy gold by ton



Rising price spurs demand


A rising price for the precious metal has in itself generated more and more demand from investors looking for a way to hedge against a fresh recession. Gold bears no yield and is uncompetitive in an environment of rising interest rates.

The uneasy outlook for inflation, hard currencies and global growth has triggered a five-fold increase in a physical gold fund launched by Pictet one year ago, the Swiss private bank said.

UBS's Mr Stadler said the precious metal has become a staple of investors' portfolios, despite questions about whether it makes for a smart long-term investment.

Anthony DeChellis, managing director of Credit Suisse's Americas private banking unit, said at the Reuters summit in New York that clients are more interested in capitalising on the rise in gold prices than using the precious metal as a safe-harbour investment.

Andreas Wolfer, head of private banking at UniCredit Group, attributed the run-up in the price of gold to frayed investor nerves after the 2008 financial crisis as well as concerns about sovereign debt in the euro zone. -- REUTERS

A man holds a 250g gold bar. -- PHOTO: REUTERS



 

GENEVA - THE world's wealthiest people have responded to economic worries by buying gold by the bar - and sometimes by the ton - and by moving assets out of the financial system, bankers catering to the very rich said on Monday.

Fears of a double-dip downturn have boosted the appetite for physical bullion as well as for mining company shares and exchange-traded funds, UBS executive Josef Stadler told the Reuters Global Private Banking Summit.

'They don't only buy ETFs or futures; they buy physical gold,' said Mr Stadler, who runs the Swiss bank's services for clients with assets of at least US$50 million (S$65.7 million) to invest.

UBS is recommending top-tier clients hold 7-10 per cent of their assets in precious metals like gold, which is on course for its tenth consecutive yearly gain and traded at around US$1,314.50 an ounce on Monday, near the record level reached last week. 'We had a clear example of a couple buying over a ton of gold ... and carrying it to another place,' Mr Stadler said. At today's prices, that shipment would be worth about US$42 million.

Julius Baer's chief investment officer for Asia is also recommending that wealthy investors park some of their assets in gold as a defensive stance following a string of lacklustre US data and amid concerns about currency weakness. 'I see gold as an insurance,' Van Anantha-Nageswaran said.

Billionaire financier George Soros, echoing comments from investment guru Warren Buffett, last month described gold as the 'ultimate bubble' because it is costly to dig up and has no real value except its market price. -- REUTERS
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09-Oct-2010 18:16 User Research/Opinions   /   {^*^} Take And Take {*} {} {*} Give And Give {^*^}       Go to Message
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ST Forum

Home > ST Forum > Story

Oct 6, 2010

Rentals don't affect quality of hawker fare



 

WE THANK Mr Joseph Khoo for his letter ('Keep rentals low to raise quality of hawker fare'; Sept 27).

We agree that Singapore's hawker fare is unique and worth preserving. To this end, the National Environment Agency (NEA) introduced the Hawker Centres Upgrading Programme in 2001 to upgrade amenities in hawker centres, and provide a cleaner and more hygienic environment. After upgrading, the rentals of subsidised stalls are adjusted accordingly to reflect the improved amenities, but these revised subsidised rentals are still pegged at below market rates.

Stallholders exit their trades for various reasons, such as retirement and competitive business conditions. This is especially so during upgrading, when first-generation stallholders make a business decision to leave in exchange for an ex gratia payment.

However, the quality of hawker fare does not hinge on low rentals. There is no evidence pointing to a co-relation between subsidised stalls and popular stalls. A stall's popularity depends largely on how tasty the food is, the quality of ingredients used, and the additional effort and value-add by the stallholder.

Ivy Ong (Ms)
Director, Hawkers Department
National Environment Agency
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09-Oct-2010 17:55 Others   /   TRADE FREELY & LiVE LONGER       Go to Message
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09-Oct-2010 17:49 Others   /   TRADE FREELY & LiVE LONGER       Go to Message
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09-Oct-2010 17:36 User Research/Opinions   /   ******** T R U E ******** Or #### F A L S E ####       Go to Message
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WHAT  is  STANDARD  OF  LIVING    ? ? ? ?


An analysis of the UBS study (Part 2): Moving towards a Russian standard of living and way of life



By Eugene Yeo, Consultant Editor


2009  FIGURES                                                   Singapore        Moscow           Zurich

Wage level:                                                              31.3                   30.9               119.8

Domestic purchasing power:                                      39.9                   49.4               106.9

Working time to puy iPod nano:                                27.5                   36.0                   9.0

Price of services:                                                      72.5                   65.0               110.9

http://www.temasekreview.com/2009/08/26/an-analysis-of-the-ubs-study-part-2-moving-towards-a-russian-standard-of-living/




Is 

 STANDARD  Of  LIVING                

TRUE  or  FALSE  ?
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09-Oct-2010 17:05 User Research/Opinions   /   ^KNOWLEDGE is POWER^ *APPLICATION is WISDOM*       Go to Message
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http://business.asiaone.com/print/Business/My%2BMoney/Planning%2BYour%2BRetirement/Investment%2BAnd%2BSavings/Story/A1Story20100426-212465.html

What if you can't afford to retire?

Options for low-income elderly folk.

Fri, Apr 30, 2010
The Business Times


By Lorna Tan

The reality of just how much it costs to retire is sinking in for many people.

As a result, more expect not to be able to retire completely - they will need to turn to part-time jobs in their golden years.
Related stories:
» Minimise risks of retirement
» Tinkering with the CPF rate


This was a key finding in a recent survey by Russell Investments and The Nielsen Company on how Singaporeans are planning for their retirement.

The findings indicated that about 70 per cent of the more than 500 respondents believe they will need some part-time work to supplement their retirement income.

Singapore's rapidly ageing population is a cause for concern, with the number of people aged 65 and older expected to treble to 900,000 in 20 years, from about 300,000.

Adding to the bleak picture: The survey indicated that only half of Singaporeans who have not reached retirement age have made financial plans for their nest eggs.

It is no wonder that experts constantly emphasise that when you fail to plan, you plan to fail. But for those who do not have time on their side and have yet to start mapping out their plans, not all hope is lost.

The Sunday Times looks at the income options available to low-income elderly people, particularly those with no financial plans. Some of these options look at the flat as an asset, as well as a source of rental and retirement income.

Next >>





Lease Buyback Scheme (LBS)

Launched on March 1 last year, the scheme allows low-income elderly Singaporeans living in three-room and smaller flats to monetise their flats to supplement their retirement needs.

It is believed that these households need more financial help, as they are unlikely to be able to take advantage of other options such as downsizing to a small flat or subletting a room.

Under the scheme, the HDB will buy back the tail end of a flat's 100-year lease at market valuation, leaving a 30-year lease for the owner. For example, if a flat has 70 years left, the HDB buys 40 years of the lease from the owner. It pays the market rate for the 40-year lease and this money goes to the CPF Life national annuity scheme in the flat owner's name. He will then receive a monthly income stream for life.

According to a study last year on unlocking housing equity for retirement by Dr Ngee-Choon Chia and Dr Albert Tsui, a three-room flat which is now worth $236,000 has an estimated housing value, unlocked from a 40-year lease, of about $109,000 at present.

The monthly annuity payouts from CPF Life through the buyback of the three-room flat is $694 to $724 for a man and $620 to $650 for a woman. Monthly payouts for women are lower than for men because of the longer life expectancy of women, on average.

Both the study's authors are from the economics department at the National University of Singapore (NUS).

To be eligible for LBS, the homeowner must be aged at least 62, have enjoyed only one housing subsidy and must have occupied the flat for at least five years, among other conditions. If the owner dies before his lease runs out, his family gets the refund of the balance.

At the start of this month, the scheme was broadened to include those who previously owned four-room or bigger flats.

It also includes those with outstanding housing loans exceeding $5,000, but who are able to buy an annuity under CPF Life for at least $60,000 with the HDB payout. Previously, the household had to have less than $5,000 outstanding on a home loan.

With the revision in rules, the number of elderly households that stand to benefit from LBS has risen to 34,800 or 82 per cent of elderly households in three-room and smaller flats.

One key advantage of the LBS is that you get to live in your home and at the same time receive a lifelong income.

Mr Ben Fok, chief executive of Grandtag Financial Consultancy, says: 'This option is viable for owners who are comfortable to stay where they are and do not wish to move or downgrade to a smaller flat. They prefer not to sublet their flat as privacy may be important to them.'

The downside is that upon the death of the retiree, he may not leave behind anything for his loved ones. In Asian culture, this may not be well accepted, says Mr Christopher Tan, chief executive of wealth management company Providend.

And retirees may also not like the idea that the house they are living in no longer belongs to them.

Mr Leong Sze Hian, president of the Society of Financial Service Professionals, however, believes that the owner will be worse off under this option.

He believes that HDB flats will be worth more 30 years down the road. After all, they have always increased in value historically, as old flats may be selected for en bloc redevelopment. Under this programme, the residents of affected blocks will be offered replacement flats. In fact, he notes that older flats have generally appreciated more, as they are in mature estates with more amenities.

Based on an annual price appreciation of 5 per cent for an HDB flat, Mr Leong works out that a flat valued at $200,000 now will be worth $864,388 in 30 years.

<< Previous      |      Next >>





Subletting

Another viable option is for elderly people to sublet their rooms. Mr Leong says this option is suitable for the retiree who wants to grow old in his own flat and still have some rental income.

According to the NUS study, about seven in 10, or 74 per cent, of the elderly prefer to 'age-in-place'.

The retiree can also opt to sublet his entire flat by moving in with his children. One key advantage of this is that the appreciating equity of the flat is retained by the flat owner, adds Mr Leong.

Mortgage consultancy Housing LoanSG.com founder Dennis Ng prefers this option to LBS, as he believes it is possible to rent out a room for $400 to $500 a month while the elderly person still retains ownership of the home.

Mr Fok cautions, however, that the owner may have to pay income tax for rent collected.

Of course, the inconvenience of having strangers in the house cannot be avoided. The owner will have to contend with losing some degree of privacy as well as putting up with strangers who may have different lifestyle habits.

Says Mr Tan: 'Not only is your privacy being intruded upon, but your whole life may be disrupted too. You share his friends if he brings them back, and you have to share the kitchen, the bathroom, the TV set and more. I am not sure whether a retiree is willing to sacrifice so much during his golden years.'

<< Previous      |      Next >>





Downsizing

Another option is for elderly people to sell their flats and downgrade to smaller flats or to HDB studio apartments.

According to the NUS study, significant sums will be cashed out if elderly people downgrade to smaller units. On average, $79,000 or $132,000 can be cashed out by downgrading from four-room to three-room or two-room flats, respectively. The sums could be even higher now, given the current trend of appreciating HDB prices.

If, say, $79,000 is placed in an annuity, a man can get a monthly payout of $502 to $526, and a woman can get $450 to $472 a month, for life.

If the elderly person opts to downgrade to an HDB studio apartment, which costs less than $100,000 currently, the cash proceeds would be even higher, says Mr Ng.

Most financial experts agree that downsizing seems to be the best financial option. After all, most retirees will conclude that they do not need to live in a big flat upon retiring.

The advantages are clear, says Mr Tan.

'You may get some cash for selling your bigger house and buying a smaller one, and at retirement, you do not have to spend so much energy cleaning the bigger premises. At the same time, expenses such as utility costs are lower with a smaller apartment.'

Mr Fok likes this option because it can help to reduce one's debt if there is an outstanding mortgage.

'You clear your debt and use the proceeds to buy a smaller home and be debt-free,' he adds.

<< Previous      |      Next >>





Working longer

Mr Tan believes that the real option is really retiring later and working longer. But in order to do that, he proposes the following:

  • Accept that you have to work through your golden years. This is really a mindset shift, and you must make this shift at least five years before your planned retirement age or before you leave your current place of work.

    To suddenly realise that you have to work longer without mentally preparing for it may be very tough to accept for a retiree.
  • Keep yourself healthy. Many may want to work but find that they no longer have the health to keep working.
  • Keep yourself relevant to the corporate world. Decide what is needed in the job market now; find something you would like to do and go for training. After all, you are bound to want to do something that you like, so it is best to start preparing yourself early.
  • If you want to go into business, prepare a business plan and do a cost-benefit analysis. Ask yourself if you can afford to lose your money.


This article was first published in The Straits Times.
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09-Oct-2010 16:58 Others   /   TRADE FREELY & LiVE LONGER       Go to Message
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Think Well. Be Well.

World Mental Health Day

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09-Oct-2010 16:57 User Research/Opinions   /   ~TALENT mIs~develOpment=*WEALTH mIs*dIstrIbUtIOn       Go to Message
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Think Well. Be Well.

World Mental Health Day

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09-Oct-2010 16:53 User Research/Opinions   /   ~TALENT mIs~develOpment=*WEALTH mIs*dIstrIbUtIOn       Go to Message
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Choosing-a-school-is-not-just-about-rankings-1
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09-Oct-2010 16:49 User Research/Opinions   /   ~TALENT mIs~develOpment=*WEALTH mIs*dIstrIbUtIOn       Go to Message
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In an article that appeared in the Straits Times, a RI student says that the quality of teaching matters more than rankings. He cites A/P Brian Farrell’s module on modern European history as an example of where he found the quality of teaching and discussions excellent.

http://blog.nus.edu.sg/fassnews/2010/10/03/choosing-a-school-is-not-just-about-rankings-straits-times-27-sep/
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09-Oct-2010 16:42 User Research/Opinions   /   %%%% WORLD ECONOMIC SUMMIT %%%%       Go to Message
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In The Straits Times, the “Ask: NUS Economists” column featured two articles contributed by Associate Professor Shandre M. Thangavelu and Professor Basant Kumar Kapur, both from the NUS Department of Economics.

Assoc Prof Thangavelu answered a question on policies implemented by the Singapore Government to mitigate the negative impacts of globalisation and reap its benefits to the fullest. Prof Kapur responded to a question on whether a decrease in money supply would always lead to an increase in interest rates and how long the current loose monetary policy in the United States would continue.




To read Assoc Prof Thangavelu’s article, click here.

Making the most of globalisation

By Shandre Thangavelu

Globalisation has its benefits and costs. What are some of the policies implemented by the Singapore

Government to mitigate the negative impacts of globalisation and reap its benefits to the fullest?





To read Prof Kapur’s article, click here.

Sep 23, 2010

ASK: NUS ECONOMISTS

Impact of money supply on inflation

By Basant K. Kapur

Does a decrease in money supply always lead to an increase in interest rates? How long will the current

loose monetary policy in the United States continue?


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09-Oct-2010 16:32 User Research/Opinions   /   %%%% WORLD ECONOMIC SUMMIT %%%%       Go to Message
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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues/issues27/index.htm

IMF  2001

ECONOMIC
ISSUES
NO.
 27

Tax Policy for Developing Countries
Vito Tanzi, Howell Zee March 2001

© 2001 International Monetary Fund


[Preface]  [Tax Policy for Developing Countries
[Level of Tax Revenue]  [Composition of Tax Revenue?
[Selecting the Right Tax System
[Tax Policy Challenges Facing Developing Countries]  [Author Information]



Preface


The Economic Issues series aims to make available to a broad readership of nonspecialists some of the economic research being produced on topical issues by IMF staff. The series draws mainly from IMF Working Papers, which are technical papers produced by IMF staff members and visiting scholars, as well as from policy-related research papers.

This Economic Issue is based on IMF Working Paper 00/35 "Tax Policy for Emerging Markets," by Vito Tanzi and Howell Zee. Citations for the research referred to in this shortened version are provided in the original paper which readers can purchase (at $10.00 a copy) from the IMF Publication Services or download from www.imf.org. David Driscoll prepared the text for this pamphlet.

Tax Policy for Developing Countries

Why do we have taxes? The simple answer is that, until someone comes up with a better idea, taxation is the only practical means of raising the revenue to finance government spending on the goods and services that most of us demand. Setting up an efficient and fair tax system is, however, far from simple, particularly for developing countries that want to become integrated in the international economy. The ideal tax system in these countries should raise essential revenue without excessive government borrowing, and should do so without discouraging economic activity and without deviating too much from tax systems in other countries.

Developing countries face formidable challenges when they attempt to establish efficient tax systems. First, most workers in these countries are typically employed in agriculture or in small, informal enterprises. As they are seldom paid a regular, fixed wage, their earnings fluctuate, and many are paid in cash, "off the books." The base for an income tax is therefore hard to calculate. Nor do workers in these countries typically spend their earnings in large stores that keep accurate records of sales and inventories. As a result, modern means of raising revenue, such as income taxes and consumer taxes, play a diminished role in these economies, and the possibility that the government will achieve high tax levels is virtually excluded.

Second, it is difficult to create an efficient tax administration without a well-educated and well-trained staff, when money is lacking to pay good wages to tax officials and to computerize the operation (or even to provide efficient telephone and mail services), and when taxpayers have limited ability to keep accounts. As a result, governments often take the path of least resistance, developing tax systems that allow them to exploit whatever options are available rather than establishing rational, modern, and efficient tax systems.

Third, because of the informal structure of the economy in many developing countries and because of financial limitations, statistical and tax offices have difficulty in generating reliable statistics. This lack of data prevents policymakers from assessing the potential impact of major changes to the tax system. As a result, marginal changes are often preferred over major structural changes, even when the latter are clearly preferable. This perpetuates inefficient tax structures.

Fourth, income tends to be unevenly distributed within developing countries. Although raising high tax revenues in this situation ideally calls for the rich to be taxed more heavily than the poor, the economic and political power of rich taxpayers often allows them to prevent fiscal reforms that would increase their tax burdens. This explains in part why many developing countries have not fully exploited personal income and property taxes and why their tax systems rarely achieve satisfactory progressivity (in other words, where the rich pay proportionately more taxes).

In conclusion, in developing countries, tax policy is often the art of the possible rather than the pursuit of the optimal. It is therefore not surprising that economic theory and especially optimal taxation literature have had relatively little impact on the design of tax systems in these countries. In discussing tax policy issues facing many developing countries today, the authors of this pamphlet consequently draw on extensive practical, first-hand experience with the IMF's provision of tax policy advice to those countries. They consider these issues from both the macroeconomic (the level and composition of tax revenue) and microeconomic (design aspects of specific taxes) perspective.

Level of Tax Revenue

What level of public spending is desirable for a developing country at a given level of national income? Should the government spend one-tenth of national income? A third? Half? Only when this question has been answered can the next question be addressed of where to set the ideal level of tax revenue; determining the optimal tax level is conceptually equivalent to determining the optimal level of government spending. Unfortunately, the vast literature on optimal tax theory provides little practical guidance on how to integrate the optimal level of tax revenue with the optimal level of government expenditure.

Nevertheless, an alternative, statistically based approach to assessing whether the overall tax level in a developing country is appropriate consists of comparing the tax level in a specific country to the average tax burden of a representative group of both developing and industrial countries, taking into account some of these countries' similarities and dissimilarities. This comparison indicates only whether the country's tax level, relative to other countries and taking into account various characteristics, is above or below the average. This statistical approach has no theoretical basis and does not indicate the "optimal" tax level for any country. The most recent data show that the tax level in major industrialized countries (members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development or OECD) is about double the tax level in a representative sample of developing countries (38 percent of GDP compared with 18 percent).

Economic development will often generate additional needs for tax revenue to finance a rise in public spending, but at the same time it increases the countries' ability to raise revenue to meet these needs. More important than the level of taxation per se is how revenue is used. Given the complexity of the development process, it is doubtful that the concept of an optimal level of taxation robustly linked to different stages of economic development could ever be meaningfully derived for any country.

Composition of Tax Revenue

Turning to the composition of tax revenue, we find ourselves in an area of conflicting theories. The issues involve the taxation of income relative to that of consumption and under consumption, the taxation of imports versus the taxation of domestic consumption. Both efficiency (whether the tax enhances or diminishes the overall welfare of those who are taxed) and equity (whether the tax is fair to everybody) are central to the analysis.

The conventional belief that taxing income entails a higher welfare (efficiency) cost than taxing consumption is based in part on the fact that income tax, which contains elements of both a labor tax and a capital tax, reduces the taxpayer's ability to save. Doubt has been cast on this belief, however, by considerations of the crucial role of the length of the taxpayer's planning horizon and the cost of human and physical capital accumulation. The upshot of these theoretical considerations renders the relative welfare costs of the two taxes (income and consumption) uncertain.

Another concern in the choice between taxing income and taxing consumption involves their relative impact on equity. Taxing consumption has traditionally been thought to be inherently more regressive (that is, harder on the poor than the rich) than taxing income. Doubt has been cast on this belief as well. Theoretical and practical considerations suggest that the equity concerns about the traditional form of taxing consumption are probably overstated and that, for developing countries, attempts to address these concerns by such initiatives as graduated consumption taxes would be ineffective and administratively impractical.

With regard to taxes on imports, lowering these taxes will lead to more competition from foreign enterprises. While reducing protection of domestic industries from this foreign competition is an inevitable consequence, or even the objective, of a trade liberalization program, reduced budgetary revenue would be an unwelcome by-product of the program. Feasible compensatory revenue measures under the circumstances almost always involve increasing domestic consumption taxes. Rarely would increasing income taxes be considered a viable option on the grounds of both policy (because of their perceived negative impact on investment) and administration (because their revenue yield is less certain and less timely than that from consumption tax changes).

Data from industrial and developing countries show that the ratio of income to consumption taxes in industrial countries has consistently remained more than double the ratio in developing countries. (That is, compared with developing countries, industrial countries derive proportionally twice as much revenue from income tax than from consumption tax.) The data also reveal a notable difference in the ratio of corporate income tax to personal income tax. Industrial countries raise about four times as much from personal income tax than from corporate income tax. Differences between the two country groups in wage income, in the sophistication of the tax administration, and in the political power of the richest segment of the population are the primary contributors to this disparity. On the other hand, revenue from trade taxes is significantly higher in developing countries than in industrial countries.

While it is difficult to draw clear-cut normative policy prescriptions from international comparisons as regards the income-consumption tax mix, a compelling implication revealed by the comparison is that economic development tends to lead to a relative shift in the composition of revenue from consumption to personal income taxes. At any given point of time, however, the important tax policy issue for developing countries is not so much to determine the optimal tax mix as to spell out clearly the objectives to be achieved by any contemplated shift in the mix, to assess the economic consequences (for efficiency and equity) of such a shift, and to implement compensatory measures if the poor are made worse off by the shift.

Selecting the Right Tax System

In developing countries where market forces are increasingly important in allocating resources, the design of the tax system should be as neutral as possible so as to minimize interference in the allocation process. The system should also have simple and transparent administrative procedures so that it is clear if the system is not being enforced as designed.

Personal Income Tax

Any discussion of personal income tax in developing countries must start with the observation that this tax has yielded relatively little revenue in most of these countries and that the number of individuals subject to this tax (especially at the highest marginal rate) is small. The rate structure of the personal income tax is the most visible policy instrument available to most governments in developing countries to underscore their commitment to social justice and hence to gain political support for their policies. Countries frequently attach great importance to maintaining some degree of nominal progressivity in this tax by applying many rate brackets, and they are reluctant to adopt reforms that will reduce the number of these brackets.

More often than not, however, the effectiveness of rate progressivity is severely undercut by high personal exemptions and the plethora of other exemptions and deductions that benefit those with high incomes (for example, the exemption of capital gains from tax, generous deductions for medical and educational expenses, the low taxation of financial income). Tax relief through deductions is particularly egregious because these deductions typically increase in the higher tax brackets. Experience compellingly suggests that effective rate progressivity could be improved by reducing the degree of nominal rate progressivity and the number of brackets and reducing exemptions and deductions. Indeed, any reasonable equity objective would require no more than a few nominal rate brackets in the personal income tax structure. If political constraints prevent a meaningful restructuring of rates, a substantial improvement in equity could still be achieved by replacing deductions with tax credits, which could deliver the same benefits to taxpayers in all tax brackets.

The effectiveness of a high marginal tax rate is also much reduced by its often being applied at such high levels of income (expressed in shares of per capita GDP) that little income is subject to these rates. In some developing countries, a taxpayer's income must be hundreds of times the per capita income before it enters the highest rate bracket.

Moreover, in some countries the top marginal personal income tax rate exceeds the corporate income tax by a significant margin, providing strong incentives for taxpayers to choose the corporate form of doing business for purely tax reasons. Professionals and small entrepreneurs can easily siphon off profits through expense deductions over time and escape the highest personal income tax permanently. A tax delayed is a tax evaded. Good tax policy, therefore, ensures that the top marginal personal income tax rate does not differ materially from the corporate income tax rate.

In addition to the problem of exemptions and deductions tending to narrow the tax base and to negate effective progressivity, the personal income tax structure in many developing countries is riddled with serious violations of the two basic principles of good tax policy: symmetry and inclusiveness. (It goes without saying, of course, that tax policy should also be guided by the general principles of neutrality, equity, and simplicity.) The symmetry principle refers to the identical treatment for tax purposes of gains and losses of any given source of income. If the gains are taxable, then the losses should be deductible. The inclusiveness principle relates to capturing an income stream in the tax net at some point along the path of that stream. For example, if a payment is exempt from tax for a payee, then it should not be a deductible expense for the payer. Violating these principles generally leads to distortions and inequities.

The tax treatment of financial income is problematic in all countries. Two issues dealing with the taxation of interest and dividends in developing countries are relevant:

 

  • In many developing countries, interest income, if taxed at all, is taxed as a final withholding tax at a rate substantially below both the top marginal personal and corporate income tax rate. For taxpayers with mainly wage income, this is an acceptable compromise between theoretical correctness and practical feasibility. For those with business income, however, the low tax rate on interest income coupled with full deductibility of interest expenditure implies that significant tax savings could be realized through fairly straightforward arbitrage transactions. Hence it is important to target carefully the application of final withholding on interest income: final withholding should not be applied if the taxpayer has business income.
  • The tax treatment of dividends raises the well-known double taxation issue. For administrative simplicity, most developing countries would be well advised either to exempt dividends from the personal income tax altogether, or to tax them at a relatively low rate, perhaps through a final withholding tax at the same rate as that imposed on interest income.


Corporate Income Tax

Tax policy issues relating to corporate income tax are numerous and complex, but particularly relevant for developing countries are the issues of multiple rates based on sectoral differentiation and the incoherent design of the depreciation system. Developing countries are more prone to having multiple rates along sectoral lines (including the complete exemption from tax of certain sectors, especially the parastatal sector) than industrial countries, possibly as a legacy of past economic regimes that emphasized the state's role in resource allocation. Such practices, however, are clearly detrimental to the proper functioning of market forces (that is, the sectoral allocation of resources is distorted by differences in tax rates). They are indefensible if a government's commitment to a market economy is real. Unifying multiple corporate income tax rates should thus be a priority.

Allowable depreciation of physical assets for tax purposes is an important structural element in determining the cost of capital and the profitability of investment. The most common shortcomings found in the depreciation systems in developing countries include too many asset categories and depreciation rates, excessively low depreciation rates, and a structure of depreciation rates that is not in accordance with the relative obsolescence rates of different asset categories. Rectifying these shortcomings should also receive a high priority in tax policy deliberations in these countries.

In restructuring their depreciation systems, developing countries could well benefit from certain guidelines:

 
  • Classifying assets into three or four categories should be more than sufficient—for example, grouping assets that last a long time, such as buildings, at one end, and fast-depreciating assets, such as computers, at the other with one or two categories of machinery and equipment in between.
  • Only one depreciation rate should be assigned to each category.
  • Depreciation rates should generally be set higher than the actual physical lives of the underlying assets to compensate for the lack of a comprehensive inflation-compensating mechanism in most tax systems.
  • On administrative grounds, the declining-balance method should be preferred to the straight-line method. The declining-balance method allows the pooling of all assets in the same asset category and automatically accounts for capital gains and losses from asset disposals, thus substantially simplifying bookkeeping requirements.


Value-Added Tax, Excises, and Import Tariffs

While VAT has been adopted in most developing countries, it frequently suffers from being incomplete in one aspect or another. Many important sectors, most notably services and the wholesale and retail sector, have been left out of the VAT net, or the credit mechanism is excessively restrictive (that is, there are denials or delays in providing proper credits for VAT on inputs), especially when it comes to capital goods. As these features allow a substantial degree of cascading (increasing the tax burden for the final user), they reduce the benefits from introducing the VAT in the first place. Rectifying such limitations in the VAT design and administration should be given priority in developing countries.

Many developing countries (like many OECD countries) have adopted two or more VAT rates. Multiple rates are politically attractive because they ostensibly—though not necessarily effectively—serve an equity objective, but the administrative price for addressing equity concerns through multiple VAT rates may be higher in developing than in industrial countries. The cost of a multiple-rate system should be carefully scrutinized.

The most notable shortcoming of the excise systems found in many developing countries is their inappropriately broad coverage of
products—often for revenue reasons. As is well known, the economic rationale for imposing excises is very different from that for imposing a general consumption tax. While the latter should be broadly based to maximize revenue with minimum distortion, the former should be highly selective, narrowly targeting a few goods mainly on the grounds that their consumption entails negative externalities on society (in other words, society at large pays a price for their use by individuals). The goods typically deemed to be excisable (tobacco, alcohol, petroleum products, and motor vehicles, for example) are few and usually inelastic in demand. A good excise system is invariably one that generates revenue (as a by-product) from a narrow base and with relatively low administrative costs.

Reducing import tariffs as part of an overall program of trade liberalization is a major policy challenge currently facing many developing countries. Two concerns should be carefully addressed. First, tariff reduction should not lead to unintended changes in the relative rates of effective protection across sectors. One simple way of ensuring that unintended consequences do not occur would be to reduce all nominal tariff rates by the same proportion whenever such rates need to be changed. Second, nominal tariff reductions are likely to entail short-term revenue loss. This loss can be avoided through a clear-cut strategy in which separate compensatory measures are considered in sequence: first reducing the scope of tariff exemptions in the existing system, then compensating for the tariff reductions on excisable imports by a commensurate increase in their excise rates, and finally adjusting the rate of the general consumption tax (such as the VAT) to meet remaining revenue needs.

Tax Incentives

While granting tax incentives to promote investment is common in countries around the world, evidence suggests that their effectiveness in attracting incremental investments—above and beyond the level that would have been reached had no incentives been granted—is often questionable. As tax incentives can be abused by existing enterprises disguised as new ones through nominal reorganization, their revenue costs can be high. Moreover, foreign investors, the primary target of most tax incentives, base their decision to enter a country on a whole host of factors (such as natural resources, political stability, transparent regulatory systems, infrastructure, a skilled workforce), of which tax incentives are frequently far from being the most important one. Tax incentives could also be of questionable value to a foreign investor because the true beneficiary of the incentives may not be the investor, but rather the treasury of his home country. This can come about when any income spared from taxation in the host country is taxed by the investor's home country.

Tax incentives can be justified if they address some form of market failure, most notably those involving externalities (economic consequences beyond the specific beneficiary of the tax incentive). For example, incentives targeted to promote high-technology industries that promise to confer significant positive externalities on the rest of the economy are usually legitimate. By far the most compelling case for granting targeted incentives is for meeting regional development needs of these countries. Nevertheless, not all incentives are equally suited for achieving such objectives and some are less cost-effective than others. Unfortunately, the most prevalent forms of incentives found in developing countries tend to be the least meritorious.

Tax Holidays

Of all the forms of tax incentives, tax holidays (exemptions from paying tax for a certain period of time) are the most popular among developing countries. Though simple to administer, they have numerous shortcomings. First, by exempting profits irrespective of their amount, tax holidays tend to benefit an investor who expects high profits and would have made the investment even if this incentive were not offered. Second, tax holidays provide a strong incentive for tax avoidance, as taxed enterprises can enter into economic relationships with exempt ones to shift their profits through transfer pricing (for example, overpaying for goods from the other enterprise and receiving a kickback). Third, the duration of the tax holiday is prone to abuse and extension by investors through creative redesignation of existing investment as new investment (for example, closing down and restarting the same project under a different name but with the same ownership). Fourth, time-bound tax holidays tend to attract short-run projects, which are typically not so beneficial to the economy as longer-term ones. Fifth, the revenue cost of the tax holiday to the budget is seldom transparent, unless enterprises enjoying the holiday are required to file tax forms. In this case, the government must spend resources on tax administration that yields no revenue and the enterprise loses the advantage of not having to deal with tax authorities.

Tax Credits and Investment Allowances

Compared with tax holidays, tax credits and investment allowances have a number of advantages. They are much better targeted than tax holidays for promoting particular types of investment and their revenue cost is much more transparent and easier to control. A simple and effective way of administering a tax credit system is to determine the amount of the credit to a qualified enterprise and to "deposit" this amount into a special tax account in the form of a bookkeeping entry. In all other respects the enterprise will be treated like an ordinary taxpayer, subject to all applicable tax regulations, including the obligation to file tax returns. The only difference would be that its income tax liabilities would be paid from credits "withdrawn" from its tax account. In this way information is always available on the budget revenue forgone and on the amount of tax credits still available to the enterprise. A system of investment allowances could be administered in much the same way as tax credits, achieving similar results.

There are two notable weaknesses associated with tax credits and investment allowances. First, these incentives tend to distort choice in favor of short-lived capital assets since further credit or allowance becomes available each time an asset is replaced. Second, qualified enterprises may attempt to abuse the system by selling and purchasing the same assets to claim multiple credits or allowances or by acting as a purchasing agent for enterprises not qualified to receive the incentive. Safeguards must be built into the system to minimize these dangers.

Accelerated Depreciation

Providing tax incentives in the form of accelerated depreciation has the least of the shortcomings associated with tax holidays and all of the virtues of tax credits and investment allowances—and overcomes the latter's weakness to boot. Since merely accelerating the depreciation of an asset does not increase the depreciation of the asset beyond its original cost, little distortion in favor of short-term assets is generated. Moreover, accelerated depreciation has two additional merits. First, it is generally least costly, as the forgone revenue (relative to no acceleration) in the early years is at least partially recovered in subsequent years of the asset's life. Second, if the acceleration is made available only temporarily, it could induce a significant short-run surge in investment.

Investment Subsidies

While investment subsidies (providing public funds for private investments) have the advantage of easy targeting, they are generally quite problematic. They involve out-of-pocket expenditure by the government up front and they benefit nonviable investments as much as profitable ones. Hence, the use of investment subsidies is seldom advisable.

Indirect Tax Incentives

Indirect tax incentives, such as exempting raw materials and capital goods from the VAT, are prone to abuse and are of doubtful utility. Exempting from import tariffs raw materials and capital goods used to produce exports is somewhat more justifiable. The difficulty with this exemption lies, of course, in ensuring that the exempted purchases will in fact be used as intended by the incentive. Establishing export production zones whose perimeters are secured by customs controls is a useful, though not entirely foolproof, remedy for this abuse.

Triggering Mechanisms

The mechanism by which tax incentives can be triggered can be either automatic or discretionary. An automatic triggering mechanism allows the investment to receive the incentives automatically once it satisfies clearly specified objective qualifying criteria, such as a minimum amount of investment in certain sectors of the economy. The relevant authorities have merely to ensure that the qualifying criteria are met. A discretionary triggering mechanism involves approving or denying an application for incentives on the basis of subjective value judgment by the incentive-granting authorities, without formally stated qualifying criteria. A discretionary triggering mechanism may be seen by the authorities as preferable to an automatic one because it provides them with more flexibility. This advantage is likely to be outweighed, however, by a variety of problems associated with discretion, most notably a lack of transparency in the decision-making process, which could in turn encourage corruption and rent-seeking activities. If the concern about having an automatic triggering mechanism is the loss of discretion in handling exceptional cases, the preferred safeguard would be to formulate the qualifying criteria in as narrow and specific a fashion as possible, so that incentives are granted only to investments meeting the highest objective and quantifiable standard of merit. On balance, it is advisable to minimize the discretionary element in the incentive-granting process.

Summing Up

The cost-effectiveness of providing tax incentives to promote investment is generally questionable. The best strategy for sustained investment promotion is to provide a stable and transparent legal and regulatory framework and to put in place a tax system in line with international norms. Some objectives, such as those that encourage regional development, are more justifiable than others as a basis for granting tax incentives. Not all tax incentives are equally effective. Accelerated depreciation has the most comparative merits, followed by investment allowances or tax credits. Tax holidays and investment subsidies are among the least meritorious. As a general rule, indirect tax incentives should be avoided, and discretion in granting incentives should be minimized.

Tax Policy Challenges Facing Developing Countries

Developing countries attempting to become fully integrated in the world economy will probably need a higher tax level if they are to pursue a government role closer to that of industrial countries, which, on average, enjoy twice the tax revenue. Developing countries will need to reduce sharply their reliance on foreign trade taxes, without at the same time creating economic disincentives, especially in raising more revenue from personal income tax. To meet these challenges, policymakers in these countries will have to get their policy priorities right and have the political will to implement the necessary reforms. Tax administrations must be strengthened to accompany the needed policy changes.

As trade barriers come down and capital becomes more mobile, the formulation of sound tax policy poses significant challenges for developing countries. The need to replace foreign trade taxes with domestic taxes will be accompanied by growing concerns about profit diversion by foreign investors, which weak provisions against tax abuse in the tax laws as well as inadequate technical training of tax auditors in many developing countries are currently unable to deter. A concerted effort to eliminate these deficiencies is therefore of the utmost urgency.

Tax competition is another policy challenge in a world of liberalized capital movement. The effectiveness of tax incentives—in the absence of other necessary fundamentals—is highly questionable. A tax system that is riddled with such incentives will inevitably provide fertile grounds for rent-seeking activities. To allow their emerging markets to take proper root, developing countries would be well advised to refrain from reliance on poorly targeted tax incentives as the main vehicle for investment promotion.

Finally, personal income taxes have been contributing very little to total tax revenue in many developing countries. Apart from structural, policy, and administrative considerations, the ease with which income received by individuals can be invested abroad significantly contributes to this outcome. Taxing this income is therefore a daunting challenge for developing countries. This has been particularly problematic in several Latin American countries that have largely stopped taxing financial income to encourage financial capital to remain in the country.

 

 

Author Information

 


Vito Tanzi was the Director of the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF from 1981 to 2000. He retired from the IMF on December 1, 2000. He holds a Ph.D. from Harvard University and is the author of many books and articles in professional journals.
 
Vito Tanzi
Howell Zee is the Chief of the Tax Policy Division in the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Maryland (College Park) and is the author of many articles in professional journals. Howell Zee


 

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09-Oct-2010 16:15 User Research/Opinions   /   %%%% WORLD ECONOMIC SUMMIT %%%%       Go to Message
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Peace prize choice incurs China's wrath


Rebuffing Beijing, Nobel panel decides to honour jailed Chinese dissident


Grace Ng
The Straits Times
Publication Date : 09-10-2010




 

China reacted with fury on Friday (Oct 8) after its most famous dissident, jailed writer Liu Xiaobo, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Liu, 54, the first Chinese citizen to win the award, was a strike leader during the 1989 Tiananmen protests and was jailed last year for campaigning for political freedoms.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee's president Thorbjoern Jagland said it had awarded him the peace prize for his "long and non-violent struggle for fundamental human rights in China".

Its decision was a blatant affront to the communist regime's leaders, who - increasingly uneasy about a groundswell of dissent - had earlier warned that giving Liu the award would sour ties between Norway and Beijing.

The warnings went ignored and the committee delivered what amounted to a rebuke to Beijing in a statement announcing the award.

Released in Oslo, it noted that while China was to be commended for lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and broadening the scope of political participation, it has "distinctly curtailed" freedoms guaranteed in its constitution.

In a withering response, the Chinese leadership said the Nobel Committee's decision "blasphemed" the Nobel Prize.

"Liu Xiaobo was found guilty of violating Chinese law and sentenced to prison by Chinese judicial organs," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu.

"All his actions run contrary to the purpose of the Nobel Peace Prize. By awarding the prize to this person, the Nobel committee has violated and blasphemed the award."

China summoned Norway's Ambassador in Beijing to protest against the award, but Oslo said the Nobel committee was independent.

News of Liu's award, which was released at 5pm Beijing time, was greeted by a stony wall of silence in local media and on Internet forums.

Local media had a virtual blackout on the news and netizens' comments were conspicuous in their absence. Even English-language reports by foreign wire agencies about Liu's award were swiftly deleted from popular websites like kdnet.com.

Reaction from ordinary Chinese was also muted, because of the news blackout.

But it failed to keep the news from spreading and had Liu's supporters in China cheering the award as a "triumph of justice over oppression".

Congratulations also came thick and fast from foreign governments including Germany and France, and from Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou and the Dalai Lama - which are likely to further infuriate Beijing.

'Relentless champion of human rights for over 20 years'

Ironically, Liu could be one of the last in his country to find out that he has been lauded for his relentless championing of human rights over 20 years.

Previously incarcerated for his key role in the 1989 Tiananmen protests, he is now serving an 11-year jail sentence.

It came after the irrepressible essayist co-wrote the Charter '08, a manifesto calling for the Chinese Communist Party to accept human rights and demanding judicial independence and political reforms.

The petition collected 10,000 signatures before it was quickly yanked off the Internet in late 2008.

Liu was sentenced on Dec 25 last year, drawing an international outcry. Analysts believe that the Chinese government had chosen to sentence him on Christmas Day to send a pointed message to the West.

Last night, his wife Liu Xia said she was "swept over by a hundred different emotions".

"I want to tell the whole world: Liu Xiaobo is innocent and I am proud of him," she told Hong Kong-based Cable TV over the phone from her home in western Beijing, which was heavily guarded by plainclothes police.

"It's not just a prize for him, but for all those who persist in pushing for democracy, freedom and peace in China, and as well as all prisoners of conscience."

Ms Liu said she would tell her husband of his award on Saturday (Oct 9), when she makes her monthly visit to Jinzhou Prison in Liaoning to see him.

Chances that either Liu or his wife will be able to visit Oslo to receive the prize, which includes a gold medal and about US$1.46 million, appear slim.
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09-Oct-2010 16:08 User Research/Opinions   /   MAY BANK initiates GROWTH ERA tOday       Go to Message
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Abu Dhabi to pour billions of dollars into Malaysia




Yvonne Tan
The Star
Publication Date : 09-10-2010




 

Billions of ringgit in investments are in the pipeline from Abu Dhabi, and are set to flow into two major projects in Kuala Lumpur and Sarawak.

The emirate’s investment unit, Mubadala Development Co, is teaming up with the Malaysian government-owned 1Malaysia Development Bhd to participate in property and aluminium ventures in the two areas.

At the signing of two agreements on Friday (Oct 8), Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak said the first would pave the way for Mubadala’s involvement in the Kuala Lumpur International Financial District (KLIFD) real estate development, which is estimated to cost more than 26 billion ringgit (US$8.3 billion).

In the second tie-up, Najib added, Mubadala, through Mubadala Industry, was looking to commit up to $7 billion in long-term projects in the Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy (SCORE).

“We are happy that 1MDB and Mubadala see each other as partners in driving strategic initiatives for the long-term sustainable economic development of their countries,” he said.

Mubadala Real Estate and Hospitality (MREH) has agreed to work with 1MDB to explore the potential joint development of key strategic projects within the 34ha KLIFD, near Jalan Tun Razak.

“The full scope of MREH’s participation in the projects to be located within the KLIFD will be finalised in 2011, following completion by 1MDB of the KLFID master plan,” Mubadala and 1MDB said in a joint press statement.

KLIFD will provide a state-of-the-art home for important banking and financial entities.

It is meant to further cement Malaysia’s position as a leader in global Islamic finance.

“The KLIFD is critical in the development of a globally competitive financial sector that will promote economic growth, attract foreign direct investment and create jobs,” Najib said.

“We will invite, encourage and persuade the local and international financial community to work with us, not only in shaping Kuala Lumpur as a global financial centre but also to benefit from what the KLIFD has to offer.”

Najib said the potential investment in SCORE, which is for the development of a major initiative in the aluminium sector based on hydro power, was expected to generate spillover economic activities in multiple sectors and create more than 10,000 jobs during construction and 2,000 specialist jobs.

Specific details of these projects, all of which would be led by 1MDB, would be available in due course, he added.

Mubadala and 1MDB said they were starting preliminary assessment work on the SCORE project.

In his speech, Mubadala chief executive officer and managing director Khaldoon Khalifa Al Mubarak said Abu Dhabi viewed Malaysia as an ideal investment platform linking the emirate to this region.

“The Abu Dhabi government is very optimistic about Malaysia’s prospects as an investment destination of choice,” said Khaldoon, who is also special envoy to the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and deputy supreme commander of the UAE Armed Forces.

At the same event, Najib, who is also chairman of the board of advisers of 1MDB, announced that 1MDB posted a net profit of 425 million ringgit ($136 million) for its first financial year ended March 31.
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09-Oct-2010 16:03 User Research/Opinions   /   ******** T R U E ******** Or #### F A L S E ####       Go to Message
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Currency wars: The burden of history




Editorial Desk
The Straits Times
Publication Date : 09-10-2010 Saturday




 

There could not have been a worse way to set the stage for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings in Washington this weekend. Countries from Japan to Colombia have sought to weaken their currencies, leading to growing alarm that we might be on the cusp of a global currency war. IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn has said he is taking the threat "very seriously" and will do all he can to prevent one. The global coordination evinced in 2008, when governments sought to collectively reflate their economies in the wake of a historic financial crisis originating in the United States, is now a distant memory.

It is understandable why countries would seek to use weaker currencies to boost growth. After all, interest rates in many major economies are at near-zero levels, and can't go down further. Indeed, Professor Barry Eichengreen, a US economist, has even suggested that competitive devaluation is actually quite helpful, since it causes countries to effectively print money.




Singapore is in sImIlar  DILEMMA  of  near  ZERO  Interest  Rate    ? ? ? ?

Maintaining  High S$ Exchange Rate by  SELLING  US$  Bond  DEBTS  via  BANKS, Temasek, GIC, MAS    ? ? ? ?




Other experts suggest another way out of the impasse: Countries with capital account surpluses (such as China) should be prevented from buying financial instruments in deficit countries (such as the US), unless the surplus countries offered open access to their own capital markets.

Such ideas sound mighty fine - until one has to grapple with the problem of a visibly angered China dumping US Treasury bonds and causing US interest rates to spike. In the end, such esoteric prescriptions underline the necessity of a far more rational policy: rebalancing. Simply put, net exporting countries need to spend more and save less, while importing countries need to spend less and save more. IMF economists stress that rebalancing should be discussed at G-20 meetings later this month, and that global coordination would be critical.

But that is easier said than done. At no time in recent memory has international cooperation been so lacking. No one is betting on the IMF or G-20 coming up with a contemporary version of the 1985 Plaza Accord. As one economist put it, the only problem with such an accord is the need for accord.

Another looming challenge is the spat between the US and China. The former accuses the latter of undervaluing its currency, while Beijing counters that a too strong yuan would spell disaster at home. In the end, a steady appreciation of the yuan would be the best approach - if only there can be agreement to that effect. The 1930s showed how a lack of global coordination can cause a global economic meltdown. The current crisis has not reached 1930s proportions yet.

But at the rate things are going, history may show itself to be a stern teacher.
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09-Oct-2010 15:53 User Research/Opinions   /   ******** T R U E ******** Or #### F A L S E ####       Go to Message
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JAPAN  has  mOre and mOre  BEGGARS    ? ? ? ?

US  has  mOre and mOre  BEGGARS    ? ? ? ?

FRANCE  has  mOre and mOre  BEGGARS    ? ? ? ?

dO  sIngapOre  have  mOre and mOre  BEGGARS    ? ? ? ?
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09-Oct-2010 15:48 User Research/Opinions   /   ******** T R U E ******** Or #### F A L S E ####       Go to Message
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Is 

 BEGGARing the wOrld ecOnOmy                

TRUE  or  FALSE  ?
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09-Oct-2010 15:46 User Research/Opinions   /   ^KNOWLEDGE is POWER^ *APPLICATION is WISDOM*       Go to Message
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REVIEW & FORUM  Saturday: 9 OCTOBER 2010 

Beggaring the World Economy

Raghuram Rajan

CHICAGO Global capital is on the move. As ultra-low interest rates in industrial countries send capital around the world searching for higher yields, a number of emerging-market central banks are intervening heavily, buying the foreign-capital inflows and re-exporting them in order to keep their currencies from appreciating. Others have been imposing capital controls of one stripe or another. In recent weeks, Japan became the first large industrial economy to intervene directly in currency markets.

Why does no one want capital inflows?

Which intervention policies are legitimate, and which are not?

And where will all this intervention end if it continues unabated?

The portion of capital inflows that is not re-exported represents net capital inflows. This finances domestic spending on foreign goods. So, one reason countries do not like capital inflows is that it means more domestic demand “leaks” outside. Indeed, because capital inflows often cause the domestic exchange rate to appreciate, they encourage further spending on foreign goods as domestic producers become uncompetitive.

Another reason that countries do not like foreign capital inflows is that some of it might be hot (or dumb) money, eager to come in when foreign interest rates are low and local asset prices are rising, and quick to leave at the first sign of trouble or when opportunities back home beckon. Volatile capital flows induce volatility in the recipient economy, making booms and busts more pronounced than they would otherwise be.

But, as the saying goes, it takes two hands to clap.

If countries could maintain discipline and limit spending by their households, firms, or governments, foreign capital would not be needed, and could be re-exported easily, without much effect on the recipient economy. Problems arise when countries cannot – or will not – spend sensibly.

Countries can overspend for a variety of reasons.

The stereotypical Latin American economies of yesteryear used to get into trouble through populist government spending, while the East Asian economies ran into difficulty because of excessive long-term investment. In the United States in the run up to the current crisis, easy credit, especially for housing, induced households to spend too much, while in Greece, the government borrowed its way into trouble.

Unfortunately, though, so long as some countries like China, Germany, Japan, and the oil exporters pump surplus goods into the world economy, not all countries can trim their spending to stay within their means. Since the world does not export to Mars, some countries have to absorb these goods, and accept the capital inflows that finance their consumption.

In the medium term, over-spenders should trim their outlays and habitual exporters should increase theirs. In the short run, though, the world is engaged in a gigantic game of passing the parcel, with no country wanting to take the habitual exporters’ goods and their capital surpluses. This is what makes today’s beggar-thy-neighbor policies so destructive: though some countries will eventually have to absorb the surpluses and capital, each country is trying to avoid them.

So which policy interventions are legitimate?

Any policy of intervening in the exchange rate, or imposing import tariffs or capital controls, tends to force other countries to make greater adjustments. China’s exchange-rate intervention probably hurts a number of other emerging-market exporters that do not intervene as much and are less competitive as a result.

But industrial countries, too, intervene substantially in markets. For example, while US monetary-policy intervention (yes, monetary policy is also intervention) has done little to boost domestic demand, it has spurred domestic capital to search for yield around the world. The US dollar would fall substantially – encouraging greater exports – were it not for the fact that foreign central banks are pushing much of that capital right back by buying US government securities.



Singapore Banks, Temasek, GIC, MAS,  were  SELLING US$ Bonds to  weaken  US$  and  Strengthen S$  ? ? ? ?

 



All this creates distortions that delay adjustment exchange rates are too low in emerging markets, slowing their move away from exports, while the ease with which the US government is being financed creates little incentive for US politicians to reduce spending over the medium term.

Rather than intervening to obtain a short-term increase in their share of slow-growing global demand, it makes sense for countries to make their economies more balanced and efficient over the medium term. That will allow them to contribute in a sustainable way to increasing global demand.

China, for example, must move more income to households and away from its firms, so that private consumption can increase.

 


++++++++        ALL BANKS  nEEd to  raIse  DepOsIt  Interest Rates  tO  mOve  IncOme  tO  hOUsebOlds  and  retIrees  frOm the fIrms.        ********

 


The US must improve the education and skills of significant parts of its labor force, so that they can produce more of the high-quality knowledge and service-sector exports in which the US specializes. Higher incomes would boost US savings, reducing households’ dependence on debt, even as they maintained consumption levels.

Unfortunately, all this will take time, and citizens impatient for jobs and growth are pressing their politicians. Countries around the world are embracing shortsighted policies that cater to the immediate needs of domestic constituencies. There are exceptions. India, for example, has eschewed currency intervention thus far, even while opening up to long-term rupee debt inflows, in an attempt to finance much-needed infrastructure projects.

Indias willingness to spend when everyone else is attempting to sell and save entails risks that need to be carefully managed. But India’s example also provides a glimpse of what the world could achieve collectively.


 

After all, beggar-thy-neighbor policies will succeed only in making us all beggars.


Raghuram Rajan, a former Chief Economist of the IMF, is Professor of Finance at the Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, and author of Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2010.

www.project-syndicate.org

For a podcast of this commentary in English, please use this link:

http://media.blubrry.com/ps/media.libsyn.com/media/ps/rajan10.mp3

You might also like to read more from Raghuram Rajan

 

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