Latest Posts By Arbitrager
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| 11-Mar-2008 12:32 |
SGX
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SGX
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Hey Elf, Death is part and parcel of life.. We will face it ultimately.. More imptly, how we spend our life to the fullest.. Really sad incident to hear of. It jus a tech rebound, take it a precious chance to unload ur baby.. if not u will regret missing it. It jus tech rebound and testing new low after that! BTW, you are a doc?? let me see.. you must be an army MO, right?? |
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| 11-Mar-2008 11:50 |
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US up frm R to S and global frm inflation to hyper
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I think none of us would wan to see oil at 120.. not to say 200.. being oil as the lifeline of the economy. If oil surge up so much, it will definitely squeeze the profit margin of most mfg , shipping, transportation, utilities coys. some coys due to big mkt share or monopoly can pass on the increase in cost to consumers, it will translate to broad based inflation.. which in turn hurt consumer spending.. so its a spiraling down effect which will ultimately result to -ve growth and high inflation (stagflation) | ||||||||||||||
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| 11-Mar-2008 10:50 |
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US up frm R to S and global frm inflation to hyper
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if central banker dun control inflation now.. china will end up with -ve real GDP growth.. inflation offset all the GDP.. China Inflation Surges 8.7% on Blizzards, Food By Kevin Hamlin March 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 11 years in February as food and energy prices jumped, increasing the likelihood the central bank will raise interest rates. Consumer prices climbed 8.7 percent from a year earlier after gaining 7.1 percent in January, the statistics bureau said today. That was faster than the 7.9 percent median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Dousing inflation is the government's top priority, Premier Wen Jiabao told China's legislature last week after the worst blizzards in half a century exacerbated price gains. Six interest-rate increases last year and the highest reserve requirements ever for banks have failed to tame inflation mainly driven by soaring food costs. ``They must raise interest rates big time -- at least two to three percentage points this year,'' said Andy Xie, an independent economist based in Shanghai. The key one-year lending rate is 7.47 percent. The deposit rate is 4.14 percent, less than half the pace of inflation. Inflation has surged since March last year on costs of staple foods such as pork and cooking oil. China's worst blizzards in half a century pushed up food and fuel prices because transport bottlenecks disrupted supplies. The yuan traded at 7.1070 versus the U.S. dollar at 10:08 a.m. from 7.1099 before the data was released. Raising Rates China's leaders may raise rates this week to signal their determination to fight inflation as legislators gather at the annual meeting of the National People's Congress, said Ha Jiming, chief economist at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing. The March inflation rate is likely to be slower, Ha said. ``The bottom line is not controlling inflation per se but controlling inflation perceptions,'' said Xie. Raising rates when the U.S. Federal Reserve has cut them risks attracting more overseas money into a financial system already flooded with cash from export sales. The government needs to tighten controls on inflows of so-called ``hot money'' that threaten to overheat the economy, Li Deshui, the former head of China's National Bureau of Statistics, said March 8. Non-food inflation was 1.6 percent, up from 1.5 percent in January. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 1 percent. Economic `Weakness' China is wrestling with inflation just as weakening global demand threatens the export growth that's a key driver of the world's fourth-biggest economy. Overseas shipments grew at the slowest pace in almost six years in February because of the blizzards, weaker U.S. demand and the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. ``Everybody is very worried about inflation at the moment, talking about tightening and so on,'' said Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist of Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong. ``Very soon we might have to worry a lot more about weaknesses in China's economy because of the U.S. slowdown.'' China's producer-price inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in more than three years in February, adding pressure for consumer prices to keep rising. ``China's first challenge is how to respond to the global slowdown and its second is what to do on inflation,'' said Louis Kuijs, the World Bank's Beijing-based senior China economist. ``China's inflation is now running at rates that are uncomfortable from the perspective of the Chinese public and policy makers. It is right for China to have a relatively tight monetary policy.'' To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Hamlin in Beijing on khamlin@bloomberg.net Last Updated: March 10, 2008 22:21 EDT |
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| 11-Mar-2008 10:34 |
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ah moh remiser sms me bottom fishing day,,,cheers
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China Inflation Surges 8.7% on Blizzards, Food By Kevin Hamlin March 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 11 years in February as food and energy prices jumped, increasing the likelihood the central bank will raise interest rates. Consumer prices climbed 8.7 percent from a year earlier after gaining 7.1 percent in January, the statistics bureau said today. That was faster than the 7.9 percent median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Dousing inflation is the government's top priority, Premier Wen Jiabao told China's legislature last week after the worst blizzards in half a century exacerbated price gains. Six interest-rate increases last year and the highest reserve requirements ever for banks have failed to tame inflation mainly driven by soaring food costs. ``They must raise interest rates big time -- at least two to three percentage points this year,'' said Andy Xie, an independent economist based in Shanghai. The key one-year lending rate is 7.47 percent. The deposit rate is 4.14 percent, less than half the pace of inflation. Inflation has surged since March last year on costs of staple foods such as pork and cooking oil. China's worst blizzards in half a century pushed up food and fuel prices because transport bottlenecks disrupted supplies. The yuan traded at 7.1070 versus the U.S. dollar at 10:08 a.m. from 7.1099 before the data was released. Raising Rates China's leaders may raise rates this week to signal their determination to fight inflation as legislators gather at the annual meeting of the National People's Congress, said Ha Jiming, chief economist at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing. The March inflation rate is likely to be slower, Ha said. ``The bottom line is not controlling inflation per se but controlling inflation perceptions,'' said Xie. Raising rates when the U.S. Federal Reserve has cut them risks attracting more overseas money into a financial system already flooded with cash from export sales. The government needs to tighten controls on inflows of so-called ``hot money'' that threaten to overheat the economy, Li Deshui, the former head of China's National Bureau of Statistics, said March 8. Non-food inflation was 1.6 percent, up from 1.5 percent in January. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 1 percent. Economic `Weakness' China is wrestling with inflation just as weakening global demand threatens the export growth that's a key driver of the world's fourth-biggest economy. Overseas shipments grew at the slowest pace in almost six years in February because of the blizzards, weaker U.S. demand and the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. ``Everybody is very worried about inflation at the moment, talking about tightening and so on,'' said Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist of Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong. ``Very soon we might have to worry a lot more about weaknesses in China's economy because of the U.S. slowdown.'' China's producer-price inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in more than three years in February, adding pressure for consumer prices to keep rising. ``China's first challenge is how to respond to the global slowdown and its second is what to do on inflation,'' said Louis Kuijs, the World Bank's Beijing-based senior China economist. ``China's inflation is now running at rates that are uncomfortable from the perspective of the Chinese public and policy makers. It is right for China to have a relatively tight monetary policy.'' To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Hamlin in Beijing on khamlin@bloomberg.net Last Updated: March 10, 2008 22:21 EDT |
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| 11-Mar-2008 10:31 |
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ah moh remiser sms me bottom fishing day,,,cheers
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FYI, China just announced a worst than consensus CPI data at 10am today. No joke!! Global inflation in the making.. If not tame now, it will become hyperinflation.. in US, rate cut speculation not longer spur any real buying interest and most investors now fear inflation more than economic downturn.. We can still live with an economic downturn, but persistent inflation is no joke. every individual will feel it. |
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| 11-Mar-2008 09:42 |
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ah moh remiser sms me bottom fishing day,,,cheers
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for those vested, on any rebound, good time to take profit or cut loss.. not advisable to buy.. will be another trap.. continued real selling. Do see slight short covering but real selling pressure still stronger... v limited upside.. buyers beware. ceveat emptor.. |
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| 10-Mar-2008 15:26 |
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Malaysia GE
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yep.. KLCI dropped drastically by 10%, hitted circuit breaker.. closed for 1hour.. | ||||||||||||||
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| 10-Mar-2008 15:17 |
Acma
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China Auto Elec
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Sorry. wrong post.. I mean Chrysler almost filed for chapter 21 (bankruptcy) if not GM bail them out.. Auotmobile industry in US will be badly hit by current economic slowdown. |
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| 10-Mar-2008 15:10 |
Acma
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China Auto Elec
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KLCI dropped drastically by 10%, hitted circuit breaker.. closed for 1hour. | ||||||||||||||
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| 10-Mar-2008 15:05 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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KLCI dropped drastically by 10%, hit circuit breaker.. closed for 1hour. | ||||||||||||||
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| 10-Mar-2008 14:51 |
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US up frm R to S and global frm inflation to hyper
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on the backdrop of slowing growth and soaring in prices.. US economy is escalating from recession from stagflation.. while the world also suffer from soaring price, eroding the real value of the GDP growth and purchasing power of the currency.. we are also on the way from inflation to hyperinflation.. Traders to benefit from their trding hoping for 1% rate cut in coming FOMC meeting, ignoring the fact that further rate cut wun solve the current financial crisis but yet sowing the seed to higher inflation.. and bonds and currency mkts has factored the fact that fed is losing control of inflation... expect the bear to arrive after FOMC meeting... TIPS' Yields Show Fed Has Lost Control of Inflation By Sandra Hernandez and Deborah Finestone March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Bond investors have never been so sure that the Federal Reserve will lose control of inflation. They're so convinced that they're giving up yields just to buy debt securities that protect against rising consumer prices. The yield on the five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security due in 2012 has been negative since Feb. 29, ending last week at minus 0.16 percent. The notes, which were first sold in 1997, have never before traded below zero. Even so, firms from Deutsche Asset Management to Vanguard Group Inc., the second-biggest U.S. mutual fund company, say TIPS are a bargain. For the first time in a generation, money managers must come to grips with a central bank that's more intent on spurring the economy than restraining price increases. With oil above $100 a barrel, gold approaching $1,000 an ounce and the dollar at a record low against the euro, TIPS show investors aren't convinced Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will be able to tame inflation once policy makers stop cutting interest rates. ``The way TIPS are trading now, investors believe headline inflation will stay lofty and are willing to give up the real yield for that,'' said Brian Brennan, a money manager who helps oversee $11 billion in fixed-income assets at T. Rowe Price Group Inc. based in Baltimore. Prices for the securities indicate ``a real concern of a recession and high headline inflation,'' he said. Because TIPS pay a principal amount that rises in tandem with the consumer price index, buyers accept lower yields in a bet the inflation adjustment will make up the difference. Volcker Fed Investors typically determine what they are willing to receive in interest by deducting the rate of inflation expected over the life of the securities from the rate on a comparable Treasury. Investors can still earn money from TIPS with sub-zero rates because the principal rises with the CPI. Five-year TIPS yielded 2.35 percentage points less than similar-maturity Treasuries as of 2:45 p.m. in Tokyo. The so- called breakeven rate has risen from a four-and-a-half-month low of 1.89 percent on Jan. 23, the day after policy makers cut their target lending rate by three-quarters of a point to 3.50 percent in an emergency move. The last time investors were so worried about faster inflation amid slowing growth, Paul A. Volcker presided over a Fed that would raise rates as high as 20 percent to end the stagflation crisis of the 1970s, according to Seth Plunkett, a bond fund manager at American Century Investment Management in Mountain View, California. The firm manages $20 billion. Fed Forecast Inflation ``is going to be higher than the Fed's targeted area,'' said Plunkett, whose fund owns a greater percentage of TIPS than contained in the index he uses to measure performance. In forecasts released last month, the Fed said it expects inflation to accelerate 2.1 percent to 2.4 percent this year, and 1.7 percent to 2 percent in 2009. TIPS have returned 6.2 percent this year, compared with 3.7 percent from regular Treasuries, according to indexes compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. Mutual funds that specialize in inflation-linked debt attracted a net $2.87 billion in January, boosting their assets to $47.6 billion, according the latest data available from Financial Research Corp. in Boston. In all of 2007, the funds added a net $3.54 billion. ``TIPS are a really good buy,'' said Bill Chepolis, a money manager who helps oversee $9 billion at Deutsche Asset Management in New York. He bought five-year TIPS in the last six months. ``They're cheap with the Fed continuing to emphasize growth over inflation and inflation continuing to come in higher.'' Too Expensive Investors seeking a haven from credit-market losses have pushed yields on all Treasuries lower, including TIPS. Five-year nominal note yields have dropped 1.03 percentage points this year to 2.41 percent. ``It's crazy,'' said Richard Schlanger, a portfolio manager at Boston-based Pioneer Asset Management, which oversees $44 billion in fixed income. ``You're paying the government to buy five-year TIPS. People are hiding in Treasuries for liquidity's sake because of a lack of liquidity in other markets. Eventually this will pass.'' Record-low TIPS yields also reflect bets on surging commodities. Crude oil futures rose to $106.54 last week and are up 70 percent this year. Growth in countries such as China and India mean that rising prices for goods including wheat, gold, and oil ``may be a permanent thing,'' said Paul Samuelson, the second recipient of the Nobel Prize in economics who helped popularize the term ``stagflation.'' ``This time it's primarily not made-in-America inflation.'' Resumed Sales The Treasury stopped selling five-year TIPS between 1998 and 2003, and resumed auctions in October 2004. In addition to the current five-year security, seven other inflation-indexed notes with up to four years to maturity currently yield less than zero. Should five-year TIPS continue to have negative yields when the Treasury holds its next sale April 22, federal rules state investors would receive a coupon of zero percent, said Stephen Meyerhardt, a Bureau of Public Debt spokesman in Washington. ``TIPS have performed really well for the right reasons and they will continue to perform well for the right reason,'' said Kenneth Volpert, a fund manager overseeing $14.7 billion in inflation-linked debt at Vanguard in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania. To contact the reporters on this story: Sandra Hernandez in New York at shernandez4@bloomberg.net; Deborah Finestone in New York at dfinestone@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: March 10, 2008 01:49 EDT |
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| 10-Mar-2008 14:33 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Big caps will still continue to come down lower.. cos' economic health is deteriorating.. even our only hope, China is also affected by the slowdown in US. So Singapore will be more adversely affected by US recession.. latest news from bloomberg on China. expect 1Q and 2Q gdp results to be very ugly.. more coming... China Trade Surplus Narrows as U.S. Demand Weakens By Nipa Piboontanasawat and Li Yanping March 10 (Bloomberg) -- China's trade surplus dropped for the first time in almost a year and export growth plunged as the worst blizzards in half a century disrupted shipments and U.S. demand weakened. The gap narrowed 64 percent in February from a year earlier to $8.56 billion, the customs bureau said today on its Web site. The surplus was less than half the $22.5 billion median estimate of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Exports rose 6.5 percent, the slowest pace in almost six years, aiding government efforts to cool the world's fourth- biggest economy. China's surpluses cause tension with trading partners and threaten to worsen 11-year high inflation by flooding the financial system with cash. ``The decline is due to weaker demand from overseas and the disruption from the snowstorms -- it's too early to say that the surplus will keep slowing sharply,'' said Sun Mingchun, an economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. For the first two months combined, the surplus narrowed 29 percent to $28 billion from a year earlier. Imports increased 35.1 percent in February, the biggest gain in more than three years, as commodity prices rose. In January, exports rose 26.6 percent and imports climbed 27.6 percent. China's producer prices, the cost of goods as they leave the factory, climbed 6.6 percent last month, the fastest pace in more than three years, the government said today. Accelerating Inflation Economists expect February consumer-price inflation of 7.9 percent, the highest rate in 11 years, according to a Bloomberg News survey. That figure is released tomorrow. The yuan traded near the highest since a dollar link ended in July 2005 on the prospect of a faster appreciation of the currency to lower import costs and quell inflation. It was at 7.1090 per dollar as of 12:37 p.m. in Shanghai, compared with 7.1110 on March 7. Lawmakers and manufacturers in the U.S. say the currency should strengthen more quickly to reduce China's alleged unfair trading advantage. Unsafe exports have added to tensions. The drop in the pace of export growth also reflected the ``abnormally high'' 52 percent increase a year earlier, when exporters pushed shipments through early to beat tax increases, Sun said. Snowstorms, Holiday Snowstorms paralyzed parts of the transport system and stalled deliveries to ports in January and February. China's week-long Lunar New Year holiday also started earlier this year than last, leading exporters to bring some shipments forward to January. Exports to the U.S., where a housing recession is sapping demand, fell in February to $15.5 billion. That was down from $19.2 billion in January and $16.3 billion a year earlier. ``The remarkable rise in China's trade surplus is nearing its end,'' Ben Simpfendorfer, a strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in Hong Kong, said in a report. ``However, the trade surplus will not evaporate abruptly and China will remain a global liquidity provider as it continues to accumulate foreign-exchange reserves.'' Exports of Chinese steel products fell 29 percent in February from a year earlier. To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at npiboontanas@bloomberg.netLi Yanping in Beijing at yli16@bloomberg.net Last Updated: March 10, 2008 02:17 EDT |
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| 10-Mar-2008 10:54 |
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No more hopes for China QDII fund investing in STI
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Avoid all S-shares.. they are still above fair valuation. more downside risk.. unlikely to bottom out within these few weeks... any rebound will be a good chance to take profit or cut loss. I may appear as an agressive bear here.. even some of my colleagues think so. but i do see the ominous disaster coming soon. be wary!! its just the start of the actual bear market. dun just look at the stock market. Look at the macro view of the global economy especially wat is happening in US, Euro and Japan... whether u like it or not.. they will affect our economy. and economic health of the country depict the mkt movement in stock market. invest at ur own risk. caveat emptor. |
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| 10-Mar-2008 10:24 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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Hi elf, how u doing?? enjoying ur break now after u tendered?? wow wow full time trading liao ah.. ha! that's was luck.. cos i was monitoring the buy sell near closing and saw huge selling pressure coming in near closing so i gave that call.. yep, this counter is definitely not for newbie.. alot of ppl kanna burnt by this counter many many times. looking at the chart, alot of treacherous trap everywhere. past 1 mth is also another trap set up to trap many retails in. Can see alot of skeletons in the closet. I am sure many of the ppl here will disagree with mi but well truth will remain truth. Highly recommend for short-term punters only... newbies and long-term investors do refrain from this. those really for whichever reasons must buy this stock can wait till 64~66c. caveat emptor applies. |
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| 09-Mar-2008 17:19 |
UOB
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UOB
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UOB still trading at disgusting high level.. lolz.. standing on$17.60.. should be testing immediate support of $17 next few days. Long Term support seems at $16.20. Financials willing be within firing range for coming days. DBS is at $16.68 no reason for this burger to be staying at tis level. SELL call Trading TP $17 Do your own research before investing.. caveat emptor applies. |
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| 09-Mar-2008 17:17 |
First Resources
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First Resources
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oh idea, look at UOB. its still disgusting high.. lolz.. standing on$17.60.. should be testing immediate support of $17 next few days. Long Term support seems at $16.20. Financials willing be within firing range for coming days. DBS is at $16.68 no reason for this burger to be staying at tis level. SELL Call Trading TP $17 Do your own research before investing.. caveat emptor applies. |
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| 09-Mar-2008 16:37 |
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Malaysia GE
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| 09-Mar-2008 16:36 |
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Malaysia GE
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| 09-Mar-2008 16:35 |
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Malaysia GE
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| 08-Mar-2008 13:36 |
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No more hopes for China QDII fund investing in STI
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Hey, no prob. that's wat forum is for.. sharing of information.. so that we can have more informed decision.. thankys eldar!! | ||||||||||||||
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