Latest Posts By pharoah88
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| 17-Mar-2011 16:26 |
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2011 March 17 JAPAN earthquake [NO MILK TODAY]
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dId 911 victims receive donations from OVERSEAS ? ? ? ? DON'T treat JAPAN as thOUgh it is 3rd WORLD ? ? ? ? JAPAN is FIRST WORLD ! |
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| 17-Mar-2011 16:22 |
Straits Times Index
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News Update!
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| 17-Mar-2011 16:20 |
Straits Times Index
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News Update!
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# O V E R H E A R D # WHY do Governments ALWAYS ACT POOR in TIMES of CITIZENS' CRISIS ? ? ? ? Every month US$BILLIONS are spent on regional MEETINGS and they NEVER ACT POOR but instead ALL ACT RICH staying at 5-STAR SUITES and flying FIRST CLASS ? ? ? ? TRUE or FALSE ? ? ? ? |
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| 17-Mar-2011 16:16 |
Straits Times Index
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Ms LOW shares her PROFITS from JAPAN POWER PLANTS with the JAPANESE consumers ! M A G N A N I M O U S ! LEADERSHIP Low's father, who was present at the ceremony, was clearly proud of his daughter's generosity -- the S$1 million comes out of her own pocket. He said the family has friends in Japan and the company also has business ties there. It imports equipment from Japan and supplies coal to Japanese power plants.
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| 17-Mar-2011 16:04 |
User Research/Opinions
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? BI-POLAR ECONOMICS = SCAM ECONOMICS ?
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when ALL the CASH is STUCK in the RICH POLE it is VERY BAD for the POOR POLE and the ECONOMY STOPS CIRCULATING. |
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| 17-Mar-2011 16:02 |
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2011 March 17 JAPAN earthquake [NO MILK TODAY]
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This lady should be NEXT PRESIDENT donating her salary every year to the SINGAPORE MEDICAL FUND ! C H E E R S !
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| 17-Mar-2011 12:39 |
User Research/Opinions
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? BI-POLAR ECONOMICS = SCAM ECONOMICS ?
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| 17-Mar-2011 12:37 |
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? BI-POLAR ECONOMICS = SCAM ECONOMICS ?
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Once UpOn a tIme twO grOUps Of peOple One bIg grOUp wIthOUT CASH One small grOUp wIth ALL the CASH |
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| 17-Mar-2011 12:21 |
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2011 March 17 JAPAN earthquake [NO MILK TODAY]
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Shareholder can CALL Chairman President CEO Shareholder Relations Client Relations Any employee tO ask AnyTHING AnyTIME AnyWHERE
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| 17-Mar-2011 12:17 |
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2011 March 17 JAPAN earthquake [NO MILK TODAY]
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| 17-Mar-2011 10:48 |
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2011 March 17 JAPAN earthquake [NO MILK TODAY]
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JAPAN STRONGEST YEN HUGE FOREIGN RESERVE ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY SUPERIOR MILITARY POWER LEADING CREATIVITY & INNOVATION YET SO LAME & REACTIVE ? ? ? ? when comes to HANDLING CITIZENS in CRISIS CAPITALIST LEADERS must have HEARTS like CHINA LEADERS On 24/7 SERVICE tO CITIZENS gO On tO CRISIS SITES STAY On sIte LIVE CRISIS with THE PEOPLE and SERVE THE PEOPLE WHOLEHEARTEDLY |
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| 17-Mar-2011 10:35 |
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2011 March 17 JAPAN earthquake [NO MILK TODAY]
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CHINA has EXCESS EXCESS EXCESS EXCESS EXCESS EXCESS EXCESS EXCESS SUPPLIES CONTACT AFP Synear China Fish SuperGroup Pacific Andes Conscience Food . . . . . . . . WHY GLP is nOT mOvIng SUPPLIES into JAPAN ? ? ? ? JOKE CRAZY SCAM
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| 17-Mar-2011 10:26 |
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2011 March 17 JAPAN earthquake [NO MILK TODAY]
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NUCLEAR SAFETY UN#CLEAR UN#SAFE DON'T TRY IT IN SINGAPORE DON'T PRETEND IGNORANCE BEWARE AWARE SCARE |
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| 17-Mar-2011 10:12 |
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2011 March 17 JAPAN earthquake [NO MILK TODAY]
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If the PROPERTY of SAIZEN GLP and other companies are UNaffected as REPORTED WHY are the share prices falling ? ? ? ? JOKE or CRAZY or SCAM |
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| 17-Mar-2011 10:10 |
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2011 March 17 JAPAN earthquake [NO MILK TODAY]
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Can Radiation fallOUT R E A C H BEYOND 30KM of EXPLOSION SITE ? ? ? ? JOKE or CRAZY or SCAM |
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| 17-Mar-2011 10:08 |
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2011 March 17 JAPAN earthquake [NO MILK TODAY]
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NO MILK TODAY in JAPAN According to CNA this morning |
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| 07-Jan-2011 12:01 |
User Research/Opinions
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! ! ! ! LANDED Property prICes fOr REAL ! ! ! !
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Of the above factors, the en bloc phenomenon created the biggest squeeze because it (a) demolished physical housing units to make way for redevelopment, reducing total stock; (b) put millions of dollars of windfall into the hands of the en bloc sellers, amplifying purchasing power, and (c) en bloc sellers had to buy another property for their own stay at a time when net new supply was already low. The average growth of population in the last five years — from 2006 to last year — was 162,000 per year. The demand for housing was way higher than the net supply growth of private residential at 5,780 units per year and the additional supply of 2,129 HDB flats per year, partly due to Sers rejuvenation of older estates. The timing could not have been better. If we narrowed our analysis down to the numbers for 2006 to 2008, the shortage of space is even more pronounced. Vacancies dropped to a low of around 4 per cent as the average annual increase of 4,077 units of private residential stock (TOP completions minus en bloc demolitions) and 1,858 units of HDB stock were hardly enough for the influx of population at 191,200 a year! Assuming the new population agreed to squeeze into residential units 10 people at a time, we would need a supply of 19,100 units each year in 2006 to 2008. But the additional stock count was only 5,935. So naturally, rentals and capital values spiked. SUPPLY OUTLOOK We need to look at the planning for physical supply and not merely the real estate market based on launches and pre-sales. Some schools of thought favour the idea that, in land-scarce Singapore, property investors merely care about capital gains, not the steady rental income stream. For me, I stress the importance of long-term returns from real estate and therefore, I keep a close eye on physical supply and asset utilisation. A property has real value only when it is well-used. Most hard, capital-intensive assets are like that: Ships, aeroplanes, machinery, satellites, ports, highways, and so on. If you leaned towards feng shui, you would also believe that the higher the human traffic and goods flow (especially for industrial, retail and commercial properties), the better the property. An over-supply of completed residential properties, with insufficient end-users and poor utilisation, would naturally lead to price weakness. Conversely, insufficient supply or too-rapid a population or demand growth will lead to sky-rocketing prices — similar to the situation in 2007. This would not go down well with our central planners. Despite being a top-notch economy, Singapore does not like to price itself out of the market. So, we can expect more supply to quench the fire of rising prices. Since the middle of 2009, public housing demand has been robust and prices have moved up sharply. From Table 2, we see that HDB launches of BTOs were ramped up significantly last year. According to the HDB: “The ramp-up of flat supply is part of a series of additional measures to reinforce the Government’s commitment to provide affordable and adequate public housing supply for first-timer households.” If demand remains strong, the HDB may launch up to 22,000 BTO flats and release land for 7,000 DBSS units this year. That’s a potential 29,000 HDB units. That’s huge. However, the numbers do not indicate when the physical supply will be completed. The HDB supplies new flats based on various demand factors, such as new households formed from marriages, number of resale transactions, etc. To satisfy the strong demand and in order to shorten the waiting time for first-time buyers, Mr Mah Bow Tan, the Minister for National Development, has announced that the HDB will endeavour to complete construction within two-and-a-half years, shorter than the previous average of three years, for all BTOs starting from September last year. Based on the above information, public housing supply is estimated to be as shown in Table 3: If we net out the number of HDB units that may be demolished for estate renewal, the supply looks comfortable, especially since most of the BTO flats have found owners before construction began. However, if we look at the If you recall from Table 1 above, the 15-year average annual supply is about 22,000 units of HDB and private housing. The recent record high Government Land Sales programme and the ramp up of HDB supply may lead to a supply of over 30,000 units in 2013 and 43,000 units in 2014. The last time so many residential units were completed was during the period of 1998 to 2000, when an average 44,000 units were completed per year. That was a supply level that was challenging to absorb as new family formations through marriages tracked at around 25,000 per year and the population increased at 70,000 per year. And not all newly-weds purchase homes or move out of their parents’ nests, while new population may come in the form of students or contract workers who occupy dormitories rather than residential units. That period of over-supply led to a long period of indigestion from 2002 to 2005, when prices stagnated on the back of an economy hit by Sars and external turbulence. Vacancies of private residential units hovered above 8 per cent for most of 2002 to 2005, much higher than the 5 to 6 per cent of 2009-2010. total supply of residential units (both HDB and private) as shown in Table 4, the numbers become somewhat scary.WHAT MIGHT BE THE LEVERS TO PULL? Should the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s projections of residential completions be accurate and HDB supply remains high, we must brace ourselves for a deluge in 2013 and 2014. We are now in 2011, so that gives us over a year to prepare. There are, however, a few ways that may mitigate the over-supply threat: • Speeding up estate renewal programmes By 2015, there will be more than 200,000 flats that will be over 30 years old. Old flats could be torn down sooner. Current tenants will be given notice to move out into other HDB flats. However, HDB’s pace of renewal programmes is not entirely clear to market watchers, so I would not be able to take a stab here. • Slowing down construction The HDB can choose to slow down the supply of new flats. In the case of BTOs, the process of applications, queueing, balloting, selection, etc, and then contracting the construction companies to build are within the control of HDB. If physical supply is high and vacancies increase, the completion of construction could be delayed for the market to take up some slack. • Embracing more foreigners The demand side of the equation could be jacked up by welcoming more foreigners to our shores. This is especially so if the economic growth in the next five years can hold up at 5 per cent or higher, ensuring that jobs growth will be robust. If executed well, an increase in housing demand produces the best outcome for the whole market. It remains to be seen if the large supply can be supported by demand. It is critical for stakeholders to make informed decisions, thinking through a comprehensive set of real estate data such as housing demolitions, population growth policies, public and private housing TOPs, etc, to the extent that such information is available. The writer is the founder of real estate agency International Property Advisor (IPA), which provides services to high-net-worth individuals. |
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| 07-Jan-2011 11:52 |
User Research/Opinions
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! ! ! ! LANDED Property prICes fOr REAL ! ! ! !
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Table 4 Estimated residential completions HDB (BTO + DB SS)* Private, including ECs # Total 2011 7,418 6,766 14,184 2012 9,620 9,154 18,774 2013 11,212 19,535 30,747 2014 22,536 20,504 43,040 *IPA’s estimates
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| 07-Jan-2011 11:49 |
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! ! ! ! LANDED Property prICes fOr REAL ! ! ! !
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Table 3 Estimated completions of HDB units (BTO + DB SS)* 2011 7,418 2012 9,620 2012 11,212 2014 22,536
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| 07-Jan-2011 11:45 |
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! ! ! ! LANDED Property prICes fOr REAL ! ! ! !
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TAB LE 2 Number of new HDB units launched BTO DBSS Total 2007 5,916 0 5,916 2008 7,793 1,711 9,565 2009 8,893 1,563 10,6456 2010 16,089 0 16,089 2011* 22,000 7,000 71,026 *Should demand remain strong, the HDB may release as many as 22,000 BTO units and DB SS land sales for 7,000 units. |
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