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14-Mar-2012 14:16

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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Wah U turn...

HSI was up 200+ points

now only 70+..

bear trap!

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14-Mar-2012 13:16

Sapphire / Good Entry

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sapphire to benefit???

ENERGIZED: Resource Stocks Finding Favor With Funds

Written by Andrew Vanburen (China Correspondent)

Tuesday, 13 March 2012 15:09

China dominates the global rare earth supply pool, with 97% of the 17 metals in its coffers.
Photo: Wikipedia

Translated by Andrew Vanburen from a Chinese-language piece in the Shanghai Securities Journal

RESOURCE COUNTERS are once again gaining the full attention of the various funds plying their way across Mainland China's capital markets.

This is especially true for rare earth metals -- of which China controls the lion’s share of the world’s supply – as they are critical components of fast-growth industries like mobile telecom and wind power.

China only has about 30% of the world's rare earth metal deposits, but thanks to rather controversial trade flow and export controls, it commandeers a staggering 97% of the world's supply of these scarce resources.

There are two primary drivers giving way to the pro-resource sentiment.

The first is that overall, resource sector stocks have been underperforming the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which has risen by nearly 11% since the calendar flipped over to 2012.

Therefore, fund managers feel the sector is due make up for lost ground soon.

The second is also “ground” related.

Some of the economic restructuring being orchestrated from Beijing over the past few years – especially post-2008 global financial meltdown – has been aimed at shifting Mainland China’s GDP away from a longstanding overreliance on foreign investment and the largesse of buyers of “Made in China’ overseas, and more toward high value-added production and increased attention to the domestic market.

Naturally, one of the first sectors to be targeted is upstream mining, by definition one of the least value-added segments of the PRC’s industrial juggernaut.

These various mining restrictions over the years have resulted in soaring prices for the suddenly more scarce mined materials – and this is like the clanging of a dinner bell to ambitious, bargain-hungry fund managers across the land.

Said opportunity seekers are especially upbeat on the prospects for chemical deposits like fluorite as well as rare earth elements, as mining restrictions on their extraction have become more stringent which fans the flames of commodity price rises even more vigorously.

The slowly leaking news on current price reforms for various mined resources coming out of the annual legislative national-level meeting held in Beijing last year has only done more to turn more heads and raise more eyebrows within the fund investment community.

Singapore-listed Armarda relies heavily on China's growing stockpile of rare earth metals.
Photo: Andrew Vanburen

An investor at a Shenzhen-based joint venture fund firm who was seriously looking into moving money into resource stocks said that the combination of the gradually revealed pricing reforms on resources as well as ongoing strategies to take full advantage of the carbon credit system along with lingering mining restrictions could potentially work together to provide major upsides to those who know which mined resources are the most undervalued, or have the most pent-up demand.

“It looks like the direction on mining resource pricing reforms is beginning to take shape. The trend I see evolving is that price controls will remain in place for many of these critical commodities, but miners will have more flexibility to bring prices more closely in line with international averages so as to not take such a hard hit on the P& L sheets each quarter,” the fund manager said.

VST (HK: 856) is affected by rare earth prices. Photo: VST

If all these scenarios pan out, then key mined resources will then be allowed to be sold at “market value,” he added.

“And this will translate into strong upside potential for the related counters’ share prices.”

Another investor with the Bosera Funds said that his fund was also paying close attention to potential buys in the resources sector.

“China’s GDP, while not in high-flying double digits, is still humming along quite well and there will be continued strong demand for many of the mined resources in question.”

New global demand for rare earth elements – which are used to make key components in products like cell phones and wind turbines -- has been straining supply of late and some pundits predict that it will be as politically sensitive a commodity as oil one day

In a few decades, some experts predict that worldwide rare earth elements demand will exceed supply by 40,000 tonnes per year unless major new sources are extracted.

China has received criticism for announcing two years ago plans to reduce its export quota to 35,000 tons per year in 2010–2015, a move it claimed was meant to conserve scarce resources and protect the environment.

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14-Mar-2012 11:54

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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since the current situation is a high oil price scenario..

i'm looking at the oil/commodity related svc stocks.. e.g Ausgrp, Swiber, Technics, Dynamac

Gd luck..DYODD

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14-Mar-2012 10:12

Golden Agri-Res / GoldenAgr

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best!.. palm oil counters will catch up with rising palm oil prices.. only for those integrated palm oil companies

Palm Oil to Climb to One-Year High as Cooking-Oil Supply Drops

By Ranjeetha Pakiam - Mar 14, 2012 6:00 AM GMT+0800 Bloomberg

Palm oil, used in everything from candy bars to instant noodles, will advance 4 percent to the highest in more than a year by June as cooking-oil supplies drop to the lowest in more than three decades, a survey showed.

The tropical oil may gain to 3,500 ringgit ($1,153) a metric ton from 3,365 ringgit at the close yesterday on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 10 analysts and traders who attended a conference in Kuala Lumpur last week.

Inventories of palm, soybean, rapeseed and six other oils will drop below 30 days of consumption this year, the fewest since 1977, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. Global food prices rose for a second consecutive month in February on higher costs for cereals, cooking oils and sugar, as shown by the index of 55 food items tracked by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.

“The stocks-to-usage ratio is going to be much lower this year, so that will boost prices,” said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive officer of Sunvin Group, a Mumbai-based commodities trader, who predicts a high of 3,700 ringgit.

Futures climbed as high as 3,370 ringgit yesterday, the most expensive since June 7. Prices have gained 6 percent this year compared with a 1.5 percent advance in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Agriculture Index of eight commodities. The commodity last reached 3,500 ringgit in March last year.

Mistry, Coleman

The UN food index increased 1.2 percent in February from a month earlier and the gauge of edible oils and fats rose 2.1 percent. The cost of food may remain near current levels in coming months as demand drains increased supply, Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior FAO economist, said March 8.

The edible oil may climb to a four-year high of 4,000 ringgit ($1,317) by June and then drop to $1,150 to $1,200 on a free-on-board basis, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd., who has traded the commodity for three decades. Michael Coleman, managing director at Aisling Analytics Pte, said last month the price may climb to $1,300.

While global palm-oil output is set to increase 2.3 million tons this year, that won’t be enough to counter lower production of other oils including soybean and rapeseed, Thomas Mielke, executive director Oil World, said March 7. Global soybean production may drop by 20 million tons to 245.53 million tons after drought hurt crops in South America, he said.

Malaysia, Indonesia

Palm oil output in Malaysia, the second-biggest grower, is expected to climb to 19.4 million tons this year from a record 18.9 million tons in 2011, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. From March, output each month will be less on a year-on- year comparison due to a low output cycle, leading to “flat” growth of as much as 19 million tons in 2012, Mistry estimates.

Production in Indonesia, the largest grower, will increase by about 1.4 million tons to 26.5 million tons in 2012, he said.

With crude oil trading above $100 a barrel and signs that the U.S and European Union economies are stabilizing, palm oil may climb as more investors buy commodities, said Bajoria.

“There is so much liquid money throughout the world, through the hedge funds and the new money injected via the European central bank,” he said. “The money travels to the destinations where the best returns can come.”

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14-Mar-2012 10:09

Yamada Green Res / Yamada-Since it IPO at 0.22c-good response

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ndamental View Technical View
Still a gd stock to invest in..before the herd comes in, 20c presents gd value dyodd!
Source: NextView
Yamada could be forming a cup-and-handle chart look alike
pattern. Resistance is currently at S$0.24 while support
appears at S$0.19.
Financials
Year to 30 Jun
(Rmbm) 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F
Net turnover 314.0 364.4 533.4 626.9 716.8
Gross Profit 131.2 181.0 211.6 249.9 287.1
Operating profit 118.0 126.1 174.2 206.9 240.8
Net profit 103.3 112.7 169.0 201.7 235.5
EPS (Rmb cent) 86.1 27.7 41.6 49.6 57.9
Net margin (%) 32.9 30.9 31.7 32.2 32.9
Dividend yield (%) 3.4 0.0 6.6 7.9 9.3
PE (X) 1.5 4.5 3.0 2.5 2.2
P/B (X) 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.5
ROE (%) 29.8 28.1 27.8 24.8 23.5
Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian
Background
Investment highlights
•
from a larger production capacity, improved gross margins
and increased sales with a wider distribution network.BUY with a target price of S$0.33 due to stronger earnings
•
70% discount to Singapore-listed peers’ average. Yamada
Green Resources (Yamada) is currently trading at 4.0x
FY11 PE and 2.6x FY12F PE vs an earnings growth of
50.0%.The target price translates to 4.0x 2012F PE, pegged at a
Our view
•
government continues to encourage rural agriculture.Macroeconomic should favour Yamada as the
To curb food inflation, the Chinese government plans to
allocate Rmb1.2t for developing the agricultural industry,
improving rural areas and farmers' livelihood this year. At
the fifth session of the 11
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated that the
government remains committed in its efforts to boost
agriculture production by developing technology and
investing in rural infrastructure. We believe Yamada will
benefit from such policies as the government can use
Yamada as a conduit to encourage corporate high
technology farming.th National People’s Congress,
•
for FY12.
1HFY12 to Rmb252.0m due mainly to higher sales of selfcultivated
fungi as the group almost doubled its shiitake
mushroom cultivation base from 2,614mu in 1HFY11 to
5,134mu in 1HFY12. As a result, PBT escalated 130% to
Rmb81.2m from Rmb35.3m in the previous period if we
exclude the Rmb14.6m valuation gains of the eucalyptus
trees in 1HFY11. We believe earnings growth momentum is
likely to continue for the second half, particularly so as they
have signed on new exclusive distributors for their
mushrooms.Expansion in mushroom cultivation to boost earningsYamada reported a 70.1% surge in revenue for
•
will improve margins.
profit margins in the fungi segment from 49.8% in 2QFY11
to 42.2%, mainly due to rising raw material cost of
synthetic logs. With the acquisition of 21,000mu of
eucalyptus trees in Dec 11, it will fulfill 20% of the
synthetic logs requirement in FY13 and 50% in FY14, thus
controlling cultivation costs and consistency in the quality
of their edible fungi. Gross margins are likely to improve
going forward.Completed acquisition in the Eucalyptus plantationsYamada reported lower gross
Peer Comparison
Company
Ticker Price
(S$)
Market
Cap
(S$b)
PE
FY11
(x)
PE
FY12F
(x)
CEREBOS PACIFIC
SINO GRANDNESS
PEOPLE'S FOOD
CHINA MINZHONG
Average 12.9 8.6CER SP 5.520 1748.5 17.5 14.2SFGI SP 0.405 107.4 3.6 3.1PFH SP 0.585 661.2 25.7 --MINZ SP 1.000 557.4 4.8 --
YAMADA GREEN RES YGR SP 0.205 84.2 4.1 --
Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian
Yamada is a major supplier of self-cultivated shiitake
mushrooms. The group operates one of the largest shiitake
mushroom cultivation bases in China. It also manufactures
and supplies processed food products such as mushrooms,

vegetables and convenience

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14-Mar-2012 09:47

AusGroup / AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m

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accumulate @ low price..

avg 37c..

vested..

fundamentally ausgrp is doing a turnaround...

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14-Mar-2012 09:44

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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STI past 3000 but not broad based rally..

many 2nd liners still below the price when STI previously past 3000...

2nd liners are laggards!

buy 2nd liners..

DYODD...

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14-Mar-2012 09:21

Yanlord Land / Lord of China Prop

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mega rally yesterday...

technicals oversold..

vested for a quickie.. :)

DYODD

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13-Mar-2012 17:11

CWT / CWT

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Maybank stated that this is more stable than Noble & Olam..

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13-Mar-2012 15:57

Seatrium / Sembmarine

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seems like sell on news

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13-Mar-2012 14:05

Seatrium / Sembmarine

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semb mar wins new orders!

Sembcorp's Jurong Shipyard secures US$385.5m contract

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12-Mar-2012 22:06

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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SG sch holidays..

remisers on leave.. take their kids go holiday..

expect low volume for this week

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12-Mar-2012 16:59

AusGroup / Ausgroup

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mega correction 40c to 355 that's more than 10% down..

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12-Mar-2012 16:15

IPC Corp / Solid NTA 27c

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< 18c.. buy cheaper than the 2 placement fellas!

always love to buy cheaper than the sophisticated investors

ozone2002 ( Date: 28-Feb-2012 16:50) Posted:

40 m shares placed out to 2 investors @ 18c .. they are bullish abt Jap market..

looking good for IPC..

anyway NAV is 28c...still another 8c to earn from this..40% upside

DYODD gd luck!

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11-Mar-2012 12:40

Avarga / UPP

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UPP been in the spotlight these few days..

anyone can update info on this?

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10-Mar-2012 17:11

Sapphire / Good Entry

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SAPPHIRE's intrinsic value is 42.5 cts, SINWA's profit up 64%

Written by Leong Chan Teik

Friday, 09 March 2012 07:16

CFO Ng Hoi-Gee is among the Singaporeans in the top mangement team of Sapphire. Photo by Leong Chan Teik

SAPPHIRE CORP’S FY2011 bottomline is awash with red ink but that’s chiefly because of significant non-operating items.

Sapphire’s net loss attributable to shareholders was $35.6 million as compared to a profit of $75.6 million in FY2010.

Contributing to this result were significant non-operating items including an impairment loss of $80.3 million on available-for-sale financial assets -- namely a 9.2% stake in China VTM, an iron ore producer which is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

In contrast, in 2010, Sapphire had a $113.7 million fair value gain on initial recognition of its available-for-sale financial assets (ie China VTM).

Adjusting for this and other non-operating items, Sapphire achieved a profit for FY 2011 amounting to $4.6 million as compared to $7.0 million in FY2010.

Sapphire is principally engaged in the production of steel and vanadium products, trading of minerals and investments in mining and resource-related businesses.

Revenue for FY2011 increased by $15.6 million from $119.9 million in FY2010 to $135.5 million.

Overall gross profit margin dropped to 17.8% in FY2011 from 21.3% in FY 2010 mainly due to:

Lower unit selling price of V2O5 flakes as a result of lower steel demand in China,
Low gross margin for the trading business,
Higher maintenance costs incurred, and
Write-down of inventory to net realizable value.

Cash in the bank and in hand increased by $21.4 million, from $13.0 million as at end-2010, to $34.4 million as at end-2011, mainly due to repayment of cash advances and loans by third parties.

SIAS Research analyst Liu Jinshu, the only analyst currently covering the stock, values Sapphire’s operations at S$208.6m (or S$0.257 per share) and its investments’ book value at S$0.167 per share.

These two segments add up to give the stock an intrinsic value of S$0.425 (1.3x P/B), according to SIAS Research's report last week.

Sapphire stock closed yesterday at 15.3 cents - or less than half its Net Asset Value of 33.18 cents - for a market cap of $124 million.

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10-Mar-2012 14:01

IPC Corp / Solid NTA 27c

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another fund has come into the picture for IPC

raising their stake in IPC.. see SGX announcement for details

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09-Mar-2012 15:19

Golden Agri-Res / GoldenAgr

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This is what i mean by high correlation.. oil up palm oil up GAR up..

* Index up 0.4 percent

* Golden Agri rises 4.5 pct on higher palm oil prices

By Charmian Kok

SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - Singapore shares rose for a second-straight session as Asian markets gained on signs Greece would avoid a messy default, and an upbeat outlook for palm oil prices lifted firms such as Golden Agri-Resources .

Golden Agri was the top gainer on the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI), on expectations it will benefit from higher crude palm oil prices (CPO).

" CPO prices have been rising a lot and expectations are that it will still go higher," said Carey Wong, an investment analyst at OCBC Investment Research.

By 13:00 local time or 0500 GMT, the Straits Times Index (STI) was up 0.42 percent, or 12.40 points, at 2,982.78. The index is little changed over the last one week, but is up 13 percent so far this year.

Shares of Golden Agri, which owns palm oil plantations, jumped 4.2 percent to S$0.745 with over 91.1 million shares traded, making it the most actively traded stock by value.

Larger rival Wilmar International Ltd also rose 1.8 percent to S$4.99.

Palm oil prices are expected to hit 4,000 ringgit by the end of June, leading analyst Dorab Mistry said at a key palm oil conference on Wednesday. Prices have been trading in a range of 3,000-3,300 ringgit this year.

Across Asia, stock markets were higher, with Tokyo stocks jumping to a seven-month high after Greece successfully closed a bond swap offer aimed at reducing its colossal debt pile an adverting a chaotic default. (Editing by Anshuman Daga)

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09-Mar-2012 13:42

Golden Agri-Res / GoldenAgr

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touched support and back up again..

supported by high oil prices..

technicals oversold.. waiting to sell when overbought..

DYODD

doldoves ( Date: 01-Mar-2012 10:52) Posted:

Is it going to down to support line 1? .. hmm... :(

ozone2002 ( Date: 28-Feb-2012 16:15) Posted:

Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP, $0.73)

Key levels

Resistance 2: $0.80

Resistance 1: $0.75

Support 1: $0.70

Support 2: $0.62

The stock has staged a technical breakout below the ascending channel. This is often a negative signal that momentum is losing strength and a trend reversal is likely in the near term. RSI is reading below the neutral level which supports the negative bias. $0.70 is the level to watch a breach below this level indicates that further deterioration is possible.

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29-Feb-2012 10:17

IPC Corp / Solid NTA 27c

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yup CEO of listed asia pac strategic investment

GuavaXF30 ( Date: 28-Feb-2012 19:18) Posted:

One of these guys is a big shot. Goggle Dato Dr.Choo Yeow Ming for more details. Getting interesting.

ozone2002 ( Date: 28-Feb-2012 16:50) Posted:

40 m shares placed out to 2 investors @ 18c .. they are bullish abt Jap market..

looking good for IPC..

anyway NAV is 28c...still another 8c to earn from this..40% upside

DYODD gd luck!

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