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ok nickyng, your ride's here. first support at 4.2, if broken, it's 4.1.
go, go nicky! 
keke.
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doctors etc becoming traders...hm. mebbe cos in our society, which is very face-conscious, traders are regarded as not having a 'decent' job? plus, that not all ppl are cut out to be traders either.
but yea, i'd like to learn from a veteran trader! he/she would have the experience. :) keke, wonder if ipunter was a trader before....
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churning of the counter btwn 4.26 to 4.34. large lots buying and selling. 385, 400lots individual sales transacted. wait for the 400 to make enough profit (bought at 4.3), match the lots, then you got a clear ride down. too many sellers.
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jade:
large lots selling at 29/29.5. ceiling at 30, 30.5, 31 with 2,000 lots, 2.7k lots and 2.7k lots queuing to sell at the three prices respectively.
support at 28c.
a very narrow range for trading. money flow indicator shows money going out of counter. momentum peaking.
temp upspike looks done for now.
timewatch, the above for your consideration. :)
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cosco ceiling at 4.28/4.3. support at 4.10.
nickyng, don't havta wish you luck, will sure get this one. haha. ;)
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be careful today's market. the index is not sustaining. opened with high but it's falling now. dow futures are down. most of the blues hit high and are dropping now/dithering: cosco, SCI, ocbc, SM.
the calls are falling and puts are rising (indicator of shortlived rally): likely shorter than ASX.
a contrarian, or forward view dictates to buy the puts.
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buffett's principles are not easy to follow. takes ppl who are willing to sit in for a long period of time (read: years, not months, not days), and have sufficient cash to buy in every dip.
his style of value investing necessarily means you have to have a huge capital to begin playing with. or that you are willing to wait years for it.
actually, technically, one can explain why buffett is so successful. and it is less of the logic of 'picking good stocks', but more the logic of probability.
markets move 80% in 20% of the time. that is the fact.
buffett is successful because everyone knows him. that is also a fact. what i'd like to know tho, is a comparison of buffett's rate of returns versus a trader of the same class as him. who is more successful? perhaps we'll find that at the end, the markets are simply a game of probability, the mathematics of emotions. that the value of a company has no significant correlation with the value of its stock.
and perhaps ultimately, the one thing that no one ever teaches another in the stock market--since almost everyone is only interested in proving that they are the best, or that they are right, or that they have the one 'golden' method of success--
one can win in the market if and only if one plays with his personality, not against.
there is, in fact, no single method that can claim to succeed the best.
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leftbug, just my own opinion here:
perhaps the idea that one sells "too early" is a fallacy. put it this way: at that pt in time, could you have known the stock would hit 30c? what if it reversed, the way your ST Assem did, and dropped back down again?
the fact is, no one can predict the market 100%. Sure, one regrets selling 'too early' (i know i do!), but then, hindsight is always perfect. what we're emotively rue-ing, is the 'loss' of profit. but that loss is not real, because the profit was never guaranteed.
what is real, instead, is what profit you have locked in.
don't bother with averaging down. cut loss and run. a portfolio is exactly that, a portfolio. ie, not just a single stock. so if you say equal division of funds and risk, and have 10 stocks, you don't need all 10 to be winners. you can afford to lose 3 and gain on 7, and your portfolio is still positive. elf cuts at 5% of drop from peak, lower band of ave daily trading range.
stevento, agree with you. will add in one point: everyone says buy low sell high. but reality's not so simple.
because there is, also, the qualification of what is considered 'high', and what is considered 'low'. in the markets, things are relative, not absolute. what price is considered 'low' in a bull market may very well be thought of as 'high' in a bear.
and it is the ability of the investor to distinguish this qualifier which determines an investor's success or failure.
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haha....definitely appreciate your good wishes baseerahmed! same to you too. :)
i'm of the live chicken school of investing *haha*. while i'll def be looking to fill my basket with fruits, i'd first be looking NOT to hit my head into those dang fruits!
>~<
too painful for a small elf. haha.
and yea. i'm no expert. can't quite emphasise that enough. that word is a fallacy in the stock market, and a danger to believe about oneself. just trying to make a living. hopefully can make enough soon so hit financial independence.... *breathe, breathe, breathe*
sigh. let's see mon. sti gonna be volatile tmrw. direction easy enough to make an educated guess at. watch more macro indicators: dow futures, HSI, nikkei. the nikkei is key. if the first hr sustains, it's up to the final bell. if not, the usual pattern as per friday holds.
elfie sings the blues, people. that's your hint. 
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why elfie believes in newmoon's call.
article published just 2 hrs ago.
---------------
Fed sounds warning on US growth
THE US Federal Reserve said the risk to economic growth in the US had "increased appreciably" after took the surprise move of cutting its primary discount rate.
The Fed moved to pump billions of dollars more cash into the financial system just before the US markets opened on Friday night. It cut the discount rate to 5.75 per cent from 6.25 per cent, declaring that "downside risks" to the economy have increased appreciably.
Markets around the world responded by rebounding strongly overnight Friday. Asian markets had already closed down across the board, but investors from Sao Paulo to London bid up shares almost immediately after the Fed announcement.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 surged 3.5 per cent to 6,064.20, reversing much of its losses of a day earlier. France's CAC 40 index rose 1.9 per cent to 5,363.63 and Germany's DAX index was up 1.5 per cent to 7,378.29.
In the United States, the Dow Jones industrial average surged 233.30, or 1.82 per cent, to 13,079.08.
Trading was still volatile throughout the day, with the Dow rising more than 320 points in early trading, giving up more than half those gains, and then picking up steam again. Still, the Dow was down more than 1 percent for the week.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 34.67, or 2.46 per cent, to 1,445.94, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 53.96, or 2.20 per cent, to 2,505.03.
The Fed announcement that it would lower the rate on loans charged to banks stopped a global slide that had lasted more than a week amid turmoil in the credit markets. Central banks around the world have poured billions in additional liquidity into the banking system, but Friday's rate cut marked the Fed's most dramatic move.
"This move should be seen as more of a reassurance step, should interbank liquidity begin to dry up again," said ING economist Rob Carnell.
But other analysts were less certain about the move.
"The market turbulence has forced the Fed's hand here, and whilst an emergency cut might give the markets some temporary relief, some might say there is a sense of panic coming from the Fed," said Martin Slaney, head of spread betting at GFT Global Markets.
Analysts said bargain hunters helped prompt the recovery, but warned that volatility is likely to continue next week across the region.
"It is still too early to say whether this trend will continue," said Newton Rosa, an analyst at the Sul America fund in Sao Paulo. "Much will depend on the evolution of the crisis in the international markets."
The Fed said it would accept as collateral for those loans the distressed home mortgages that have led to the current crisis. It would also extend the length of repayment for the loans.
While it kept the more closely watched Federal Funds rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent, market players immediately started betting that rate would also be cut soon, probably ahead of the Fed's meeting next month, given the surprisingly stark warning issued last night.
The Fed hinted that it could move, saying it was "monitoring the situation and is prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets".
Some analysts are now predicting that the US could be headed into a recession as the US housing market collapses and credit dries up. They described last night's action by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke as "baby steps".
Despite the Fed's underlying message, the intervention had the desired effect, with European stock markets soaring and Wall Street rocketing more than 300 points in the first minutes of trading, although it quickly pulled back and was 130 points higher in the morning session.
The Australian dollar, which collapsed US4c yesterday, jumped US2c and was fetching more than US79c overnight.
Futures markets pointed to a 200-point rise on Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index when trading resumes on Monday.
The index has collapsed more than 11 per cent since its record highs last month, undermined by the crisis that spread through global credit markets from the US mortgage industry.
The S&P/ASX 200 closed yesterday down 40.5 points, at 5671 points, with investors wary after Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens said he would have no hesitation raising interest rates on the eve of a likely November election if necessary.
The Reserve Bank board will be armed with new inflation figures when it meets on November 5, Melbourne Cup day, just a few days before November 10, the most likely date for the federal election.
Earlier this month, the Fed continued to maintain that the risk to the economy was inflation, but last night it said its cut in commercial interest rates came because the "downside risks to growth have increased appreciably".
"Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward," it said.
The Fed said it had no choice but to start cutting rates "even though recent data suggested that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace".
The Fed's actions came despite the hundreds of billions of dollars central banks around the world have injected into the credit markets, which underpin a host of consumer transactions, from credit cards to home mortgages.
The Fed poured a further $US6 billion ($7.6 billion) into the system overnight, taking its injection since last week to $US94 billion. In Australia, the Reserve Bank has pumped at least $8 billion into the financial system.
Craig James, chief economist at Commonwealth Securities, last night described the intervention as a "smart move" designed to provide comfort to financial market investors and the public.
The Fed hoped to stop the chaos in credit markets spreading to the wider economy, he said. "It shows that we are in a time of crisis and that the Fed is concerned the problems could extend to the general economy."
But fears remain. ?Today is a very different world to the world we had a week ago,?? said Zoltan Pozsar, senior economist at Moodys Economy.com
?If the credit market does not loosen up there will be a very severe headwind to growth.??
Peter Schiff, one of the US most prominent bears on the US, said the cut in commercial rates was a ?trial balloon? that would ultimately fail.
?The Fed knows we are headed into a recession but doesn?t want to admit that.??
He said the excess liquidity the Federal Reserve pumped into the US economy over the last decade under the chairmanship of Alan Greenspan was now coming back to haunt the US.
?Greenspan made our bed and now we are going to have to lie in it,?? Schiff said.
?People keep saying this is a sound economy, but if it was so sound we wouldn?t be in this mess.??
Last night?s action from the Fed came after its liquidity injection over the last week failed to unlock the credit markets - that?s because the $US94 billion dished out to the 21 primary dealers on Wall Street was not making its way to the smaller financial institutions, which are now effectively unable to offer mortgages or offer credit to consumers.
Traders said those dealers were hanging on to the money themselves rather than on-lending, driven, in part at least, by the fact that six of those primary dealers, global investment houses Bear Stearns, Nomura, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, UBS and a unit of US mortgage company Countrywide, are suffering either huge losses on the mortgages, or hedge funds, or both.
All week, veteran market traders were decrying the Fed?s efforts to pump in liquidity because the ?blood was not getting to where it was needed? and urging a cut in the discount rates so the secondary financial market could get some funds.
- with wires
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oh yea, that ad! haha. saw it once. thought the lady looked a bit loopy. :P cute ad tho. and yea, malteses are cute too. wldn't mind one of those actually...
thanks for the good luck wish! will def need it. haha.
bunnie. in a period of volatility, if you're trading (ie, pls don't even dream of keeping it), you can play what are known as strangleholds (or strangles) in warrants: ie, buy BOTH the put and the call warrants (at different times, of course).
basically, when market is up, you sell the call and buy the put. when market is down, you sell the put and buy the call.
that's what i've been effectively doing these past week. amongst WT, SSH, sembcorp. haha. didn't play cosco, what a waste....
cos, dunno. when weigh risk and reward, warrants are actually 'safer' now. since they track the ENTIRE sti, rather than an individual stock. so what DBS loses for instance, sembcorp/sembmar might weigh out and increase the sti. etcetc. a bit more complicated than this but that abt sums it up. the qn is the choice of warrants. pick for high liquidity and a strike target that is reasonable, plus good conversion ratio.
anyway, you're free now, so rather than looking for tips, why not go learn some TA?!! *nag nag nag* :P better to learn to feed yourself than to dep on other ppl....
warning tho: market on monday is NOT for the risk averse. it's purely for the risk takers and gamblers. so tread lightly, tread fast. expect to be treading on bodies as you go along.
macabre, but yea.
not lady general lah...and not interested in cutting off heads either. just interested in keeping my own safe and well on my own neck!
haha. :P
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newmoon, don't gotta bother about the stars/no stars thing. elf for one definitely appreciates your posts. :)
..and i also agree with you regarding the longer term direction of the market (ie, excluding this expected rebound on mon).
but well. stock market is not about egos and who's right who's wrong. elf doesn't care a whit about being right. let's just see how it goes and play exactly according to the trend.
cheers to all! heehee.
PS: stevento, do keep posting. it's very informative and useful, esp the chart you put up.
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manikamaniko...'savour the koi carps'....eating them? o_0
haha.
and erm, not quite sure what ads you're referring to, baseerahmed?
well, i do know one thing: tmrw's a chance for major profits. call warrants. hehe.
elfie gonna scalp tmrw, it's playtime! 
BUT...elfie will also hold nothing longterm. instinctively, i agree with newmoon.
fastest runner wins. hehe. let's go! 
byebye and have a good rest of weekend.
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haha, yep teeth53, agreed. if one doesn't play the markets now, one does not gain, yes, but one also does not lose.
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hm. one more thing about this new class of BBs, the hedge funds: think of them as pirates.
they do not necessarily hold long term positions. throw out buffett and all your guides. they can go long, they can go short. they do not care about the rules--not like there are any tho--the aim of the game is only one: profit.
any way, which way.
so play with them, not against them.
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yep baseerahmed, good post. :)
sigh. oh bunnie. if you can see that it is fear and greed ruling, why not learn to master it...being in the market for so long, i think the most important thing is education. totally agree with baseerahmed there! :)
perhaps, in the market, if there is an emotion one must feel, it is cruelty.
the ability to cut even if it hurts yourself, and win, at the cost of someone else. since, it is a zero sum game after all. game theory at its finest and most fundamental.
and have realised one thing: all my gains have always came from trading, from technicals. FA play has only costed me losses.
but ok. still on profit for the year. so synnexo, (despite the kb-ing hehe): yep. let us cheer each other on. :) as for how to even out losses... entirely on your personality. scalp, cut loss and wait for bear to realign for a good portfolio for the years to come, or just hold on. but rem that if you hold on and a bear does come, the retracement will likely never reach the levels it once did.
good luck to all in this trying time!
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well manikamaniko, it's play time on monday!
keke.
still think it's better not to hold anything long term for now tho... charts-wise, a lot of counters have fallen through their supports like a hot knife through butter.
because the contagion has spread. it's no longer just a subprime issue. that's the tip of the iceberg. the word 'subprime' is on everyone's lips, but how many understand the full extent of chaos theory? the idea that everything is linked. the real thing to watch for: the unwinding of the carry trades.
the market is no longer about fundamentals. perhaps it has never been about this. cos fact is, no matter how good a company is, if everyone is selling its stock, then its price has only one way to go.
and think about it: why is the fed suddenly cutting rates? The FOMC is concerned about inflation, not about the stock market. Not unless the gyrations of the stock market affect the economic growth of the country.
then think again: not all the news have been announced yet. consider: fed is linked to banks. a sudden about-turn and secret cutting of discount rates to banks. but not key rates. Points to one conclusion=> some of the large US banks are in trouble. and they have not released this news yet.
ie, Someone somewhere must have approached the higher echelons of government for a bailout.
hence, the immensity of the problem which necessitates sudden governmental intervention? thus, likely direction of the global markets? see the stars and connect to form the name of the constellation. what do you see?
note: the above is just my guess. and really, i'd rather be wrong than right.
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heyhey kilroy! let elfie know the positions of the JPY/US and the US/NZ (or is it yen/NZ?) pairs as it goes along, yea?
another indicator to watch now. hehe.
the carry trades are unwinding. the spike in the dow/europe is likely just a brief rally. fund houses, banks and hedge funds are majorly playing, hence the huge volatility we see everyday.
as for holding long term, or selling or trying to bottom fish now, or trading.
well, will give the following example, and let fellow investors draw their own conclusions. note: purely technicals, and only long, since i do not play shorts. if you do, it's simply reversal of the signal tho.
NOT a buy/sell call. and the presumption is that you have the tools for intraday scalping, if you are into it. would never trade if don't have the tools or the money to lose for it.
coscocorp:
yesterday's OHLC (open, high, low, close):
open: 4.1
high: 4.28
low: 3.48
close: 3.9.
intraday trade signals, based on SMA crosses (simple moving averages at 30 and 60), which cosco responds to (ie, pick an indicator that your stock responds to!):
buy: at 3.52, 1448 hrs. sell: 3.58, 1507 hrs.
second signal: buy: 3.56, 1515 hrs. sell: 3.92, 1614 hrs.
third signal: buy: 3.76, 1631 hrs.
would opt to close all positions within the day, since i personally do not believe in holding anything long term at this period of time. hence, default close at selling px: 3.9.
long term techs:
sell signal clearly generated by MACD on 31 jul at close of 5.15. still on downtrend. likely to be a huge one since has not yet crossed into negative territory.
candlesticks generating confirmation of downtrend signal. for past 16 days, 10 red.
for those who are eyeing the intraday trade method: please please be very careful. note the time of the generated signals for trades. they are all less than an hour long. so do not play if you cannot watch it the entire time.
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don't bother with long term positions at this period of time, or even 'logic'. there is no logic; just follow the trend. elfie scalped sembcorp 4.84 to 4.98 within the last half hr.
volatile markets are good for one and one thing only: intraday scalping. trying to buy and hold long term now is opportunity cost, and subject to the whims and vagaries of the temperamental mistress dow.
one of two ways: play it fast, or play it ostrich style.
flipping bad market. agree with newmoon...the cut is a little too late. brief rally. if it encourages more to take up loans, all you have is a bigger bubble later to blow in the years to come.
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dow freefalling:
12715.47
-146.00 / -1.14%
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