Latest Posts By Arbitrager
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| 12-Feb-2008 16:54 |
Chip Eng Seng
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Awarded More Contracts = No longer cheap
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well i am not sure if the IR thingy will be a white elephant but I am v sure that when they go ahead with that idea, they din factor in the subprime thingy.. so if things really get damn bad, i m not surprise it will be become a white elephant.. every investment is a risk.. and even garberment also made losses from their investments too.. look at china suzhou project.. how many billions lost! and many other more to name.. no doubt that CES is a fundamentally sound company but i m jus uncomfortable that the current price has yet to factor in any potential economic downturn and property recession.. if any..i will only look at it when the price factor in all the potential risks involved.. and i am prepared to hold long term.. jus my own personal opinion.. |
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| 12-Feb-2008 16:44 |
User Research/Opinions
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Budget 2008
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Hi limhpp, guess you must be staying in expensive pte properties.. that's y.
$1000-2000 is based on the fact if 1 were to hold all the till march 2008, cos they give dividends based on the GDP growth. ERS will earn tax-free dividends each year in the form of bonus shares, payable every year on 1 March from 2004 - 2008. The rate is a minimum guaranteed 3% + real GDP growth rate of the previous year.
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| 12-Feb-2008 16:16 |
Others
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The Rising Risk of Systemic Financial Meltdown
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to make things worse.. instead of creating more domestic demand in china and india, both of them are adopting a contractionary monetary policies increasing interest to curb inflation.. higher interest rate will deter ppl from spending and save more. and by the nature of their population.. their propensity to save is naturally high, hence in the short to mid-term.. i dun foresee China and India to be able to build up a demand big enough to absorb the fall in demand from the big 3. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 12-Feb-2008 16:04 |
User Research/Opinions
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Budget 2008
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I rather they dun give any goodies this time round.. in economics, any current government spending is repaid by future taxation... and i believe we will have to pay back much much more than wat we get now.. give u 1 time off goodies, but in exchange for prolonged period of "repayment scheme". look at the ERS some time back we got in exchange for higher and higher GST and other hikes. how many % "interest" we pay back for the 1000-2000bucks we got. |
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| 12-Feb-2008 15:30 |
Others
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The Rising Risk of Systemic Financial Meltdown
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SINGAPORE: Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew believed Asia will not go into recession, citing not only strong growth in China and India (no doubt they will be continue to grow, however even analyst cut their growth rate to single digit growth and more imptly is China and India able to creat enough demand to supercede the fallshort of demand from US, Europe and Japan??) , but also the strength of commodity prices boosting growth in Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia (take note, MM Lee never mention Singapore, as in actual fact, we are a victim of the rising commodity prices, anyone notice that most prices has increase since Jan??. On the home front, Mr Lee said higher food and energy prices, and a widening income gap are cause for concern and must be addressed. (interestly, how are they going to address these problem?? by having more ERP gantries, Higher ERP rates and higher Public Transport costs??) I think we shouldn't be listening too much into what politician says... cos' they have their own political agenda to fulfill.. Do more indepth studies on the economic health of the country. Rem during last election, all the promises made.. any of them materialised? wat i see are higher and higher cost of living yet none of the widening income gap are being address.. some points worth pondering over. |
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| 12-Feb-2008 00:30 |
Others
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DOW
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Dow Jones Indexes said Monday that Bank of America (BAC:
bank of america corporation com bank of america corporation com will replace Altria (MO:
altria group inc com and Honeywell (HON:
honeywell intl inc com in the Dow, effective with the opening of trading on Feb. 19. "The catalyst for these changes is the restructuring in progress at Altria, which will result in a much smaller and more narrowly focused company," said Marcus Brauchli, managing editor of The Wall Street Journal, in charge of overseeing the makeup of the Dow.
Dow Jones Indexes and the Wall Street Journal are owned by News Corp. (NWS:
news corp cl b , which also owns MarketWatch, the publisher of this report. As is normally the case when making changes to its components, Dow Jones Indexes also reviewed all of its member stocks.
"In doing so, we saw that the financials industry was under-represented -- notwithstanding the current turbulence -- and that the oil and gas industry's growing importance to the world economy called for another representative to join Exxon Mobil Corp.," Brauchli said.
The changes announced Monday are the first in the 111-year-old stock index since April 8, 2004, when three stocks -- American International Group Inc., Verizon Communications Inc. and Pfizer Inc. -- were added.
Created by Charles Dow in May 1896, the Dow was originally composed of 12 stocks. Of the original companies included in the index, only General Electric Co. (GE: remains as a component.
 Nick Godt is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.
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| 11-Feb-2008 21:20 |
User Research/Opinions
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Budget 2008
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Ya.. Even they agressively give u $$, u will have to vomit out more than wat they give out.. give u $100, we pay back $1000 in term of higher ERP, Higher PUB, higher GST, higher PUBLIC TRANSPORT Cost, and other new high.. the biggest legalised ah long in singapore.. everything in singapore is at new highs except our wages and savings.. lolz.. |
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| 06-Feb-2008 15:13 |
SPC
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SPC
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Hi jalan, happy new year to you too.. BB means big boys refering to big institutional funds, prop guys as well hedge funds. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 06-Feb-2008 15:11 |
Others
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Inauspicious Year???? See Red???
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If you look closer to the value traded for half-day, the value is the same as the value traded full-day yesterday. Value traded is 1.431bil SGD I can't imagine if today is a full day trading.. i think i will see more lau sai.. |
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| 06-Feb-2008 12:21 |
ShareJunction
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Happy Chinese New Year from ShareJunction
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Hi to one and all, Wishing all of you a Happy Lunar New Year.. Play mahjong and dai dee win big big.. |
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| 06-Feb-2008 10:06 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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oh HSI open down 5.5%, so I think STI will follow suit and down 5%+ too... dun forget.. its the long long weekend we have and US and Europe are still trading.. I think it will be interesting to see markets fall while go bai nian... play mahjong and pokers while enjoying the free fall.. I am pretty excited and this Pre_CNY crash is well within my expectations.. just like the last CNY in 2007..
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| 06-Feb-2008 07:51 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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seems like my 2988 is an understatment.. shall we go for 2888.. nice number to start with for CNY. hee.. prepare for free-fall later oh..
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| 05-Feb-2008 17:45 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hmm.. 2988 is quite a nice number too.. yee kau fatt fatt... in cantonese.. 
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| 31-Jan-2008 00:24 |
Others
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ERP rates revision
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its all bullshit.. anyone who took economics know that there is no way to eliminate traffic jam.. wat they r doing is jus to push congestion to other timing or other roads.. jus like previously, erp start at 8am, jam will occur ard 7.30am.. now the push it earlier, the congestion start earlier.. same as the CTE ERP in the evening.. they jus forcing ppl to go home later.. Traffic congestion is a crap excuse for govt to increase govt revenue.. if the person need to use the car, no matter what he stil will drive.. they r really blood sucker man.. now inflation is rising and our so call 1st class "elite" govt is not trying to curb inflation but to add more "tax" to fuel higher inflaton... No wonder they are in the talk to lower ARF and lesser road tax.. so that they can have excuse to implement islandwide ERP system in time to come.. most of the motorist including myself will unconsciously be paying ERP in and out of town.. can you imagine, i need to pay ard $8 for ERP to reach my office in town.. thats ridiculous.. But well, its our 66% majority of the singapore population that choose this kind of govt.. what to do.. the rest of the minority have to endure with such govt for another 5 good years. |
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| 30-Jan-2008 23:05 |
Others
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On the current market crisis By George Soros
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i think we should say recession is already here liao... 1Q08 GDP will be -ve for sure.. |
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| 30-Jan-2008 18:36 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Ya the chart does tell a v clear story.. Its really an art to master it but apparently not alot of ppl know how to interpret it including myself.. |
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| 30-Jan-2008 13:55 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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Asian Stocks Fall, Led by Shipbuilders on Growth Concerns By Chua Kong Ho Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell, led by South Korean shipbuilders on concern slowing global growth and rising fuel costs will erode earnings. Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. and Samsung Heavy Industries Co., the world's two largest shipyards, plunged after Macquarie Group Ltd. cut ratings. China Life Insurance Co. retreated after Bear Stearns & Co. said a slumping Chinese stock market will erode insurers' investment returns. Nissin Kogyo Co. an auto- parts maker affiliate of Honda Motor Co., fell a record 19 percent after reducing its profit forecast because of higher materials costs and a stronger Japanese currency. ``With the yen gaining so much against the dollar, quite a few companies will probably lower their full-year earnings forecasts,'' said Mitsushige Akino, who oversees the equivalent of $562 million in assets at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co. in Tokyo. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1 percent to 141.81 at 1:51 p.m. in Tokyo, reversing an earlier gain of as much as 0.8 percent. South Korea's Kospi Index fell 3 percent, the region's biggest decline. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 1.1 percent to 13,328.25. All other Asian benchmarks retreated apart from the Philippines and Thailand. Hyundai Heavy plunged 9.7 percent to 288,500 won. Samsung Heavy slumped 7.8 percent to 26,150 won, its lowest level since April 6. Macquarie cut ratings on South Korea's shipyards to ``underperform'' from ``outperform'' and reduced share-price estimates by as much as 70 percent. ``Banks, suffering from huge losses related to subprime mortgages, have turned more cautious in their lending policies to shipping and charter companies,'' Macquarie analyst E.S. Kwak wrote in a report dated yesterday. Shipping companies ``are likely to be less aggressive in placing new vessel orders.'' Hyundai Mipo Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. the world's third-largest maker of ships, slipped 5.6 percent to 32,200, the lowest since March 6. Hyundai Mipo Dockyard Co., which reported a 12 percent decline in fourth-quarter profit yesterday, lost 8.4 percent to 184,500, its weakest level in more than nine months. China Life, the nation's largest insurer, dropped 5 percent to HK$29.75. Ping An Insurance (Group) Co., the No. 2, declined 5 percent to HK$58.35. Bear Stearns reduced its rating on China's insurers to ``market weight'' from ``overweight,'' citing lower returns from investments in China's stock market. The nation's benchmark CSI 300 Index has fallen 11 percent this year through yesterday, after rising 162 percent in 2007. |
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| 30-Jan-2008 13:37 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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Today should be testing the $1.26 support level. Hopefully it dun breach if not, the stock will plunge toward $1.16, the last support seen on 22/1/2008. I still keep my call that this counter will go back to somewhere near its IPO price, $0.95. Moving forward, ship building industry will be badly hit by global economic slowdown and rumoured that some ship building companies are starting to have clients cancelling their ship order le.. So even YZJ has an order book that can last till 2010, its did not factor in any potential order cancellation if any. |
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| 29-Jan-2008 16:31 |
DBS
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DBS
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hedge funds are the real winner now as they r taking counter positions from all those ppl who long CDOs etc... they need not report and register to the SEC and hence noone know how much the funds are earning except the fund holders.. but then from the earning of all the hedge fund managers mentioned in the alpha magazine.. u can roughly know how much the fund earns.. top hedge fund manager can earn a few billion USD a year... so you can imagine... |
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| 28-Jan-2008 23:15 |
Others
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us government will use all resourse rescue market
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dun be too hopeful.. things are not as simple as u think... its jus a tip of the iceberg.. more bad news of the financial sectors yet to be discovered.. turmoil in the financial and housing sector is no joke.. cos its an integration to the rest of the sectors and housing prices will affect the wealth of ppl and their consumption.. Sales of New Houses in U.S. Fell More Than Forecast in December By Shobhana Chandra Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Purchases of new homes in the U.S. fell to a 12-year low in December, capping the biggest annual decline on record. Sales decreased 4.7 percent to an annual pace of 604,000, the fewest since February 1995, from a 634,000 rate the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median price last month dropped 10 percent from December 2006, the biggest 12- month decline in 37 years. The report may reinforce concern that falling home values and stricter lending rules will lead to more foreclosures and hurt consumer spending. Federal Reserve policy makers, meeting later this week, will probably cut interest rates again to try to ward off recession, economists said. ``With home prices declining and credit conditions restrained, any rebound in home sales will take time to develop,'' Peter Kretzmer, a senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York, said before the report. ``Declines in residential building will take most of this year to subside.'' Economists forecast new home sales would be unchanged from an originally reported 647,000 rate the prior month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 62 economists. Forecasts ranged from 595,000 to 680,000. The median price of a new home fell to $219,200 in December from $244,700 a year earlier, today's report showed. For all of 2007, the median price rose 0.2 percent to $246,900. For all of 2007, sales dropped 26 percent, the most since records began in 1963. Smaller Inventories Even as builders reduced inventories, the drop failed to keep pace with the decline in sales, pushing up the month's supply. The number of homes for sale fell to a seasonally adjusted 495,000 in December, the fewest since October 2005. At the current sales pace, it would take 9.6 months to sell all those houses, the most in over two decades. Purchases dropped in three of four regions, led by a 6.5 percent decline in the South. The Northeast was the only region that registered a gain. The Fed on Jan. 22 cut the benchmark interest rate by three- quarters of a percentage point, its first emergency reduction since 2001, after global stock markets tumbled on increasing signs of recession. Policy makers said ``incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction'' and ``a weakening of the economic outlook,'' in announcing the decision. Stimulus Plan The government's economic stimulus plan last week also seeks to address the housing slump. The accord includes a provision allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest U.S. mortgage finance companies, to temporarily buy mortgages of as much as $729,750, exceeding the current $417,000 federal limit. The Standard & Poor's index of 15 builders rose 24 percent last week, the biggest weekly gain since 1995, on expectations the measures will boost demand for housing. Sales of previously-owned homes, which account for about 85 percent of the market, fell more than forecast in December, capping the biggest yearly slump in more than a generation, the National Association of Realtors said last week. The median price of an existing single-family home dropped 1.8 percent in 2007, the first decline since records began four decades ago and probably the first since the Great Depression in the 1930's, the Realtors group said. New-home purchases are considered a timelier indicator because they are based on contract signings, while existing home sales are calculated when a contract closes, usually a month or two later. 2008 Forecast Purchases of new houses will fall another 15 percent this year, according to a forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Sales of existing homes will drop 13 percent, the group said on Jan. 14. Housing-related firms continue to struggle with the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis. Wachovia Corp., the fourth- largest U.S. bank, last week said profit plunged 98 percent to its lowest since 2001 after writedowns for bad loans and mortgage- backed securities. ``These are extremely difficult times for all homebuilders,'' Steven J. Hilton, chief executive officer of Meritage Homes Corp., said in a Jan. 17 statement. The homebuilder, whose biggest markets are Texas, Arizona and California, said fourth-quarter revenue from homes sold fell 25 percent as orders declined. To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net Last Updated: January 28, 2008 10:00 EST |
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