Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 21-Aug-2007 23:14 |
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DOW
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13093.79-27.56 / -0.21%
Dow Jones Industrial Average
bernanke and senator dodd and the treasury secretary gonna have a closed door talk to 'discuss financial markets' later today.
think their hand is forced actually. there'll be a rate cut cos they have no choice on the matter; but them doing so will precipitate the 08 recession.
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| 21-Aug-2007 23:06 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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hi moogee, yah, agreed! elfie also kena stuck! ahahahahahhaa. the day that it did a sudden drop (cos it was holding pretty well at abt 18c, rem), i was out on ground so no access to internet! kbkbkbkbkkbkbkbkb! can die....anw, lesson i learnt from hyflux: clear all positions before going for holiday, unless you really can take long term. >~< anw, just hang in there lah. at this pt in time, if you haven't cut yet, really, when you count the downside vs cutting and buying in, it's better to average down at the lowest pt when everyone is silent. not yet tho; believe it'll still drop further. and do be prepared to wait to year end or longer for a recovery; am under no illusions about that, neither do i wish to give false hope. (FA wise, the fundamentals are not much of a problem. but then, even the good FA blues are dropping.) am estimating correction to 2,800 for the sti. so buckle on your seatbelts and put this baby in cold storage for now. advise as a general, dun put all money into pennies tho. the blues will recover faster. so makes more sense to buy some appropriate puts as insurance (not now tho, since they're all high), put some into the blues at lowest, ride the blues up, then come back to the pennies. on the assumption of a year end rally. just be prepared for the worst and go to sleep lah. no sense angsting over this. cheers to us all! :) |
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| 21-Aug-2007 22:58 |
Trading Techniques
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Rejoice in a Stock Market Correction
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eh. don't bother so much about the time period. in a bull market, everything compresses together; in a bear, it undulates and stretches out. it's more the style i guess. how do you pick your stocks, what is the thing you instinctively look at, charts or P/E, ROE etc? anyway, dun gotta be so obsessed about style (this is what i think only...), as long as it works for you, and it makes, doesn't matter. look at nickyng. hehe. now that's an original. invertebrates then, i take it? class reptilia? or amphibia? o_0 |
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| 21-Aug-2007 22:50 |
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..eh. SJ admin. elf types very fast. is it possible to remove that 1 min no post thing? slowing me down leh... Investor Personality Quiz/Psychological Quotient (IPQ) Rank yourself on a scale of one to ten on each of the following factors. Your final personality rating should hence be 10 individual numbers, each number specific for each factor. 1 being the lowest/least, 10 being the highest/most. (eg, discipline = 5, patience = 2, etc...) 1) Discipline: refers to the ability to follow rules, particularly self imposed rules. Can you stick with your rules, or do you often find yourself rushing into decisions on impulse? (10 = most disciplined) 2) Patience: How long are you wiling to wait to reap the rewards? Immediate gratification, or willing to wait for the fruit to ripen over many years? 3) Risk tolerance: risk refers to the amount of volatility you can tolerate. If you have a high tolerance, you will not be affected by a 20, 30 or even 50% drop in the value of your stock, as long as it meets your investing goals. ie, how comfortable are you with losses? High risk is proportional to high reward, but also, high loss. 4) Reward expectation: what rate of return are you seeking? of course, everyone wants the most, but risk/reward, as per above, are proportionately linked. Hence, what reasonable returns are you expecting in proportion with the risk you want to take? (higher answer => greater reward expectation and hence, greater risk). generally, value investors do not make more than 25% pa over long term. in fact, a return of 20% pa is considered fantastic. 5) volatility tolerance: in a nutshell, how good are you at taking on the day to day rollercoasters? A ten = 'bring it on!" or a one = "eeeee....dowan!!!" 6) time horizon: how long are you willing to let your money be tied up before realising profits? higher ans => willing to have longer time horizon. 7) time commitment: how long are you willing to spend on your investments daily? 8) quantitative skill: aka, FA skills. how good are you? 9) technical/charting skill: aka, TA skills. how good are you? 10) investing confidence: how confident are you of the value of the stocks you selected, and the portfolio you hold? can you go against the market when everyone is panicking and selling, or rushing and buying, based on your judgment of its fundamental value? happy answering the quiz! will hold back the answers. muahahhahaaa. :P |
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| 21-Aug-2007 22:29 |
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bedoop! yep manikam ($ no go! hehe sorry pantang elf here :P), by charting skills i meant what you said, ie, interpretative skills. yepyep, heng2 to meeee! and to all of you too! keke. tradechancellor, what kind of pets your mama giving away, your hammies? elfie had hammies before; dun quite want new ones tho. it's so heartbreaking when they die! i kinda bawled my eyes out when each one died. and you havta see them grow old, and get furless and blind! *heartbreak* but well, i guess, at least they were once new and furry and oh so sweet. :))))) biopolis! nice place. sometimes i go there to recce for work reasons. hehe. hm. ok, mebbe i don't want a doggie then.... since we're in midst of panic....next up i'm putting the investor personality profile test for those interested to try. Hope it'll be of use to fellow SJ-ers here, to help us all better understand our own personalities, and what styles suit our personalities. pls don't take the anwers as hard and fast tho, since most likely, we're blends of each style rather than one. the following to note: the investor personality quiz requires a person to rank himself/herself on a total of ten variable factors, on a scale of 1 to 10 for each, with 1 being "least like me", and 10 being "most like me". It requires you to have a certain amount of honesty. must rem that sometimes, what we say and what we do are very different things. so perhaps if it helps, get a friend to help you? alt, be really, really honest with yourself. there are roughly four different styles an investor can be: a value investor, a growth investor, a technical trader, and a momentum trader. elfie won't give answers yet, in case you ppl start to second guess yourselves. hehe. will just give the quiz, then when you guys want the answers, lemme know. muahahahhaha. :P |
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| 21-Aug-2007 19:44 |
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reposting the 1607 hr post i made so it's clearer for all to read....and in reply to those wondering out there, yes, elfie types very fast. keke. mister kilroy, my puts are up! 
and yah. rayphua's one of the best technical traders i've come across. ok byebye dinner time and then its work time! ------------- erm hang on. before everyone gets so excited.... let me clarify the DIFFICULTIES of the method. the style used is technical/momentum trading. and it is the most difficult of all the methods (value vs growth investing vs technical/momentum trading), since, on the investor personality profile, it requires a 10 in discipline, a 10 in risk tolerance, and an 8 in charting skills. (1 being lowest, 10 being highest). not very many people can actually succeed at it: which is why in some ways i do concur with livermore: the FA style is actually more 'user friendly'. to do momentum trading, it also means you have to have a very good eye for stocks on the market, you have to know your counters, you have to be able to watch the screen every second (since some trades can be closed in 15 min flat), and above all, you have to have a very, very clear mind and instinct. You need to know when to lock out and when to let it ride further. when to cut loss, and when it is actually better to let it go down and buy on dip. you also need to keep your eyes on the macro pic---ie, read widely. chaos theory: butterfly flapping its wings in new york creates a storm in shanghai. or in this current market, a US home owner defaults creates a global credit bubble that causes semb corp (a good company with solid fundamentals) to fall. haha. one literally follows the trend, nose to the screen, but your mind has to be able to see further: what's the big picture? note: i'm not saying i'm capable of all of this, since i have made losses too. and it is a VERY RISKY method. but generally, this is the style i'm personally leaning towards for now. one more thing: this style can reap you lots in a volatile market IF you choose rightly. eg, right now, i'm playing what are known as strangles in warrants. ie, i play both the calls and the puts. yesterday when market chionged, i bought the STI3000 put at btwn 11.5-12.5c. it's currently ~15c now. so assuming one buys 100 lots, the cost price is abt 12,500 inclusive brokerage both ways. locking out now reaps 2.5k. so that's enough for the week. ONE DOES NOT NEED TO TRADE FURTHER. if you're greedy, this method of trading will likely kill you. one also needs an idea of market psychology, of which counters are being punted by the BBs, how they are moving/likely to move. i'm not sure abt cpf funds tho. am playing on cash so not sure how the markup works? do find that out... and ok. for those interested. the tech tools i use: raw data: busd and market depth. MFI. intraday candlesticks and MA crosses. longer term: williams, RSI, chaikin, a/d, candlesticks, MACD, MAcross, bollingers, MFI and momentum. i don't use all for all counters tho. depends on what the counter responds to. eg, at this period of time, if you were to try candlesticks for long term, it's actually inaccurate since too volatile. hence for now, one can only use the most sensitive of indicators for most stocks: ie, williams and chaikin. MACD. If you look at these, and the actual price/vol charts, then you'll see that stocks for now have only one direction, despite yesterday's chiong: down. PS: if all this appears as one whole paragraph, my apologies, my company blocking. |
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| 21-Aug-2007 16:48 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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ah relax lah....everything is on downtrend now, even the blues. :) i wouldn't advise cutting now tho, since achieva is quite close to its lowest possible. even if it *touch wood* goes down to 10c, the averaging down (or more precisely, on uptrend) method is likely less costly than the 'cut loss and buy in low' method for most ppl? need to count and see for yourselves...but roughly, if your buy px is abt 25c, then holding and later buying in is cheaper than cutting now and hoping for it to go down. ie, park this under your pillow and go to sleep for now lah. the fundamentals have not changed. advise buying put warrants as insurance tho. market shd have a further 10% to drop. cheers to all and keep spirits up! :) |
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| 21-Aug-2007 16:19 |
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oh goodness, so sorry for that one paragraph mess. bleeping net restrictions... lemme emphasise here again that the method i'm talking about is VERY RISKY and not for all. I concur fully with manikamaniko on the importance of knowledge and education in the market: one can't just follow tips all the time. and i also agree with livermore that most ppl actually make more if they just buy a good stock and hold long term, rather than trading. it's entirely a personality thing. DnApeh; don't actually have to really monitor since i have the tech tools; it's just waiting for lines to cross each other to buy/sell. if it is a true breakout, it'd last for a few days. if it is a momentum scalp, yes, you can close it in 15 min, but likely you have longer since the momentum upward is there. actually, ideally i'd like to quit and trade full time. realise i make more when i'm on leave than when i'm at work hahahahahha! :P |
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| 21-Aug-2007 16:07 |
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erm hang on. before everyone gets so excited.... let me clarify the DIFFICULTIES of the method. the style used is technical/momentum trading. and it is the most difficult of all the methods (value vs growth investing vs technical/momentum trading), since, on the investor personality profile, it requires a 10 in discipline, a 10 in risk tolerance, and an 8 in charting skills. (1 being lowest, 10 being highest). not very many people can actually succeed at it: which is why in some ways i do concur with livermore: the FA style is actually more 'user friendly'. to do momentum trading, it also means you have to have a very good eye for stocks on the market, you have to know your counters, you have to be able to watch the screen every second (since some trades can be closed in 15 min flat), and above all, you have to have a very, very clear mind and instinct. You need to know when to lock out and when to let it ride further. when to cut loss, and when it is actually better to let it go down and buy on dip. you also need to keep your eyes on the macro pic---ie, read widely. chaos theory: butterfly flapping its wings in new york creates a storm in shanghai. or in this current market, a US home owner defaults creates a global credit bubble that causes semb corp (a good company with solid fundamentals) to fall. haha. one literally follows the trend, nose to the screen, but your mind has to be able to see further: what's the big picture? note: i'm not saying i'm capable of all of this, since i have made losses too. and it is a VERY RISKY method. but generally, this is the style i'm personally leaning towards for now. one more thing: this style can reap you lots in a volatile market IF you choose rightly. eg, right now, i'm playing what are known as strangles in warrants. ie, i play both the calls and the puts. yesterday when market chionged, i bought the STI3000 put at btwn 11.5-12.5c. it's currently ~15c now. so assuming one buys 100 lots, the cost price is abt 12,500 inclusive brokerage both ways. locking out now reaps 2.5k. so that's enough for the week. ONE DOES NOT NEED TO TRADE FURTHER. if you're greedy, this method of trading will likely kill you. one also needs an idea of market psychology, of which counters are being punted by the BBs, how they are moving/likely to move. i'm not sure abt cpf funds tho. am playing on cash so not sure how the markup works? do find that out... and ok. for those interested. the tech tools i use: raw data: busd and market depth. MFI. intraday candlesticks and MA crosses. longer term: williams, RSI, chaikin, a/d, candlesticks, MACD, MAcross, bollingers, MFI and momentum. i don't use all for all counters tho. depends on what the counter responds to. eg, at this period of time, if you were to try candlesticks for long term, it's actually inaccurate since too volatile. hence for now, one can only use the most sensitive of indicators for most stocks: ie, williams and chaikin. MACD. If you look at these, and the actual price/vol charts, then you'll see that stocks for now have only one direction, despite yesterday's chiong: down. PS: if all this appears as one whole paragraph, my apologies, my company blocking. |
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| 20-Aug-2007 23:13 |
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hullo chancellor, have seen your posts about but not sure if i'm ever talked to you. so here's a formal hello! keke. there's a book you might like to check out; it's rather simple, but it puts together all the styles, plus has a personality rating scale that allows you to judge yourself so as to see which style you're more suitable for. "All about stock market strategies: the easy way to get started." by david brown and kassandra bentley. i especially like the intro where they succinctly explain how sentiment affects value stocks, and even give calculations on how you can count how much a stock will drop by due to sentiment (for FA ppl). while i like the sti following the dow (since it gives some guidance), i don't like that it overreacts! haha. as for worrying less... the only way i worry less is if i have no money in the market! haha. that's why right now, i prefer to hold nothing long term. it's just that, having spoken privately with brokers, and been with the BBs, seeing how they play, and listening to what they say, it's just very, very hard to believe in value. plus. one other calculation: if you make, say, just net $500 a day, 5 days a week. give discount, say 40 weeks in a year (12 weeks on holiday or loss haha). that's a profit of 100k a year already. in which case, why the necessity to hold long term? and flipping 500 a day is easy enough on a capital of say, 20k or so. 50k if wanna be safe. but perhaps these are just insane and naive elfin calculations. anyway, chancellor, intro yourself! hehe. elfie's running out of pets. sigh. muahahhahahahha! i want a real doggie...meh. sigh. |
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| 20-Aug-2007 22:59 |
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ah, mister kilroy, as much as i adore plants and animals, i do believe you mean conversation and not conservation? :P hard to believe? eh. i'm very skittish. as those who unfortunately know me can testify. haha. that's why i'm an elf. but yea. more and more speculators. and doesn't help that the hedge funds don't believe or behave in the value way too. it really skews the game. ah well. if it's volatile, one just trades then. if it's stable, one accumulates for value. so what IS your objective for investing in SG stocks? mine is profit. hahahahhahahah! hm. if you feel fear in a bull market, you're one step ahead of most ppl already. me, i'm just nervy throughout. good as a weather vane tho, since i'd bail at first sign of trouble (or gain, which also explains why i tend to run too early hahahaa.) bored. i want the dang dow to go down. niama. |
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| 20-Aug-2007 21:47 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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hm. just to clarify about the strike px: 13.5 is derived cos that's the 90 day support, as well as 13c being its NAV. but in deciding entry, it's less the fixed price i look at and more the movement of the counter. ie, i would rather pay 18c for achieva on a confirmed uptrend rather than 15c on uncertain charts and unstable market. see how. patience now. |
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| 20-Aug-2007 21:41 |
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lol. solly. tend to get worked up over the rich-poor divide and the inequity of wealth distribution. haha. plain joe's problem is lack of knowledge, of techs and FA, of the way things work, of the mechanisms. and i'll admit, at times, laziness and greed. want easy money. human nature i guess? but a potent factor in determining loss or gain. btw, is it just me, or don't you guys think the sti is a super reactive 'indicator' to global news and other indices? like, the thing doesn't have a mind of its own....dow up, nikkei goes 3%, HSI goes 5% and our dear sti chiong arrhh to 6%. dow/nikkei/hsi drops, and sti drops super lot more. does it mean our stocks are more globalised (aka more foreigners buying in, hence more susceptible to volatility), or are we just more wired hence faster on the trigger, or just more kiasu/kiasi/kia zheng hu? :P |
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| 20-Aug-2007 21:35 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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hullo novicetrader, was happily accumulating this counter before it did that volatile spike up and down: so traded it twice then; entered again and market crashed, so cut some loss. still holding some for base position (note, relatively minor position, less than a third of what i want ultimately), but waiting to see general market. my strike px to enter again is actually 13.5c, but i'm waiting to see market now. won't hesitate to cut if general macro trend is bad. can't fight the trend. am currently trading the warrants and the blues, so this is in cold storage for now. no hurry to accumulate the pennies really, since even if there is a year end rally, the pennies will likely not rally so fast yet. so switch over to the blues for now and utilise the volatility to one's advantage. generally, i wouldn't advocate accumulating anything now tho. it's too volatile. there was something brewing with this stock, as its charts showed, but in this kind of overriding climate, even the best news is not likely to get one anywhere. so just gotta ride with the trend. sigh. good luck to all of us! :))))) |
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| 20-Aug-2007 18:43 |
SUTL Enterprise
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charts are down. bo pian. everything is down for this time, good fundamentals or not. expect the blues to recover first tho. pennies might take a while longer... |
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| 20-Aug-2007 18:41 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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*bemused* good luck nicky....end was a 300+ lot buy up at 4.4. if dow up tonight.... hehe. keep on going! :) |
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| 20-Aug-2007 18:35 |
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hehe. elf agrees with nickyng. you need wealth to build wealth. take a simple count: buffett's average ROI is 15% per annum, over 40 years. everyone thinks that's fantastic since they see the billions. but put the scale in perspective. if you start wth only 2k, by end of 40 years, what you get is 535k. on the assumption that your 2k could even go that far in the first place. more often than not, as an average investor/man on the street, your money would be stuck, like now, and even if you want to do the averaging down that FA people are so fond of (read: accumulation), you need extra funds. which the average person will not have. as for value investing: let's shed the light on the mathematics and put the myth to rest: there are a total of 1602 counters traded on the SGX. not sure abt the number of companies. but then: how many of the 1600 stocks actually get delisted? ie, what, actually, are your chances of going nil? practically none. so if you're a WB follower, what you do is to get 'good' stocks, at penny levels. say 2c. in a bull year, every damn thing goes up, isn't it? so your 2c will likely become 4c, 8c. your ROI is hence 100%-200%, if not more. but question: is it truly due to value, or isn't it more likely due to sentiment? lemme give examples of good and bad pennies: achieva, stamfordland, rowlsey, banjoo, jade. look at their jan 06 prices, and now, even with this fall. isn't it true that everything went up? 'value' or non-value stock. and then, it becomes a simple case of mathematics. You pick 10 pennies. say 3 of them go down, you buy in more to average up, since that's a WB principle of 'accumulation'. so your cost px is cheaper. The winners, you keep, and sell. the losers, because you kept averaging down, got cheaper. there is always a bull period when everything goes up. that is when you sell them. over time, you can only gain, since at any point in time, any stock will go up, if you are willing to wait the years. so question: is there truly such a thing as value, or isn't it simply the mathematics of probability? so to be a buffett, you don't need to learn to read annual reports, and pick 'value' stocks. for that amount of research done, you can likely random pick any 10 pennies, and the ones that go down, you put in more money, just keep putting in more; the ones that go up, you sell. sooner or later, your portfolio will be overall profit. since sooner or later, there will always be a bull run in which everything goes up. sorry for being so cynical. but i think, in the markets, it is good to learn, but it is also good to keep one's own mind independent and not mindlessly worship the style of others. |
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| 20-Aug-2007 13:17 |
SMU E.y.E - Others
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A World Without Buffett
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agreed, ten4one! |
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| 20-Aug-2007 11:09 |
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CoscoCorp
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haha, hi CWQuah, nice to see you here too. keke. us popcorn eaters watching nickyng in action. haha. :P interesting churning going on. they're playing between 4.22 to 4.34 now. rapid churns. nicky, be careful yea. :) |
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| 20-Aug-2007 10:57 |
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hi farmer, would you like to share more about danahers? :) |
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