ShareJunction - Member Posts

Back

Latest Posts By ozone2002 - Supreme

About ozone2002

First < Newer 1361-1380 of 7452 Older> Last

10-Oct-2012 17:10

SinoGrandnes / Sino Grandness - a growth stock with low PE

Go to Message

x 0

its peer China Minzhong rallied 4+% today..

hope this will set the trend for an uplift in Sino Grandness..

gd luck dyodd

Good Post Bad Post

10-Oct-2012 16:47

SinoGrandnes / Sino Grandness - a growth stock with low PE

Go to Message

x 0

now up to 47c.. on 2 million shares done..

gd progress for today.. at least some activity..

gd luck dyodd.. :)

Good Post Bad Post

10-Oct-2012 14:18

Seatrium / Sembmarine

Go to Message

x 0

lookin to grab some if it drops further..

maybe test the previous low of 4.30?

gd luck dyodd

Good Post Bad Post

10-Oct-2012 13:10

SinoGrandnes / Sino Grandness - a growth stock with low PE

Go to Message

x 0

looks like some activity today @ 46.5

gd luck dyodd

Good Post Bad Post

10-Oct-2012 11:30

AusGroup / AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m

Go to Message

x 0

support is broken

gd luck dyodd

ozone2002 ( Date: 09-Oct-2012 16:31) Posted:

gd luck.. dyodd..

ozone2002 ( Date: 03-Oct-2012 09:27) Posted:

support is @ 51.5 .. if it breaks below.. probably be end for the rally for the short term..

gd luck dyod

Good Post Bad Post

10-Oct-2012 10:34

SinoGrandnes / Sino Grandness - a growth stock with low PE

Go to Message

x 0

China’s central bank auctioned 165 billion yuan ($26 billion) of seven-day reverse repos and 100 billion yuan of 28 day contracts today, according to a trader at a primary dealer required to bid at the sales. The monetary authority added a net 365 billion yuan using money-market operations in the final week of September, the most in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 2008. Chinese markets were closed last week for a holiday.

Good Post Bad Post

10-Oct-2012 10:31

SinoGrandnes / Sino Grandness - a growth stock with low PE

Go to Message

x 0

Sino Grandness ? potential spin off in the ma...

Contributed by Ernest Lim

09-Oct

Most readers would be aware of Mr Koh Wee Meng, Executive Chairman and CEO of Fragrance Group who joined the ranks of Singapore Billionaires as shares of Fragrance Group doubled (including dividends) after Fragrance announced its intention to explore the possibility to spin off its hotel assets via a separate listing on 15 Aug 2011.

A company that may follow Fragrance?s footsteps is Sino Grandness. Sino Grandness, through its wholly owned subsidiary Garden Fresh, has issued two tranches of zero coupon convertible bonds (?CBs?) worth a total of RMB370m. These CBs offer the bond holders to convert into shares of Garden Fresh should Garden Fresh be listed. In the announcement of the Goldman Sachs CB, Mr Huang, Chairman and CEO of Sino Grandness, had also indicated that one of the future developments to add value to the group may include future plans to list Garden Fresh.

The potential spin off aside, there seems to be more positive developments since my write-up on 18 Apr 2012.

< !--[if !supportLists]--> 1. < !--[endif]--> Issuance of CB to Goldman Sachs inspires confidence

As mentioned above, Sino Grandness announced that its wholly owned subsidiary Garden Fresh had issued RMB270m CB to Goldman Sachs and its co investors. According to management, before deciding to invest in Garden Fresh, Goldman Sachs has appointed a Big Four auditor to audit Garden Fresh business. In addition, Goldman Sach will appoint a representative to sit on Garden Fresh?s board of directors. The entry of Goldman Sachs does inspire some degree of confidence.

< !--[if !supportLists]--> 2. < !--[endif]--> Presence of new locations & new channels

Since launching its beverage business in 2QFY10, Sino Grandness has made significant inroads to China?s burgeoning domestic market. Recently, Sino Grandness announced that it has expanded network further in new locations such as Beijing and new channels such as 7-Eleven convenience stores.

< !--[if !supportLists]--> 3. < !--[endif]--> Results likely to exceed analysts? estimates

With reference to Table 1 below, 1HFY12 result already posted a net profit of RMB140m. Some of you who are quick would have mentally annualized its 1HFY12 results to get its full year FY12 results. However, it is noteworthy that we should not annualize 1HFY12 results because

< !--[if !supportLists]--> a) < !--[endif]--> One off professional fees of around RMB7m to be incurred in 2H for the issuance of CB to Goldman Sach and its co investors

< !--[if !supportLists]--> b) < !--[endif]--> Higher amortization of quarterly convertible bond expenses, as there are two CBs in place vs one previously

< !--[if !supportLists]--> c) < !--[endif]--> A& P expenses likely to be higher in 2HFY12. However, overall expenses are likely to be kept around 6% of its beverage business sales

< !--[if !supportLists]--> d) < !--[endif]--> Product mix, especially the beverage segment changes with the weather. For example, during summer periods such as June to end August, consumers tend to drink less concentrated beverage juices (i.e. more water content) than cold seasons. Typically, more concentrated beverage juices command slightly higher margins.

Table 1: Analysts FY12F estimates vs Sino Grandness 1HFY12 results

FY12F Estimates	1HFY12	UOB	DMG	Poems
Revenue	756.1	1,536.3	1,567.1	1,523.0
Net Profit	139.8	210.0	171.3	194.0

Source: Ernest?s compilations

Notwithstanding the above factors, 2HFY12 is usually a stronger season for their export business. Consequently, barring any unforeseen sharp deterioration in company?s fundamentals, it is likely that Sino Grandness should be able to comfortably meet or (likely) to exceed analysts? estimates.

< !--[if !supportLists]--> 4. < !--[endif]--> Domestic canned fruits business doing surprising well

During its 4QFY11 results briefing, Sino Grandness mentioned that they would be launching their in house branded products (i.e. domestic canned products) in 2012. This took off surprising well. In 2QFY12, this segment contributed RMB38.2m of revenue in 2QFY12 vs RMB1.3m in 2QFY11. These domestic canned fruits business leveraged on Sino Grandness existing distribution network and command gross margins 37.1% (higher than its overseas products). To put this in perspective, domestic canned fruits business constituted 8% of 2QFY12 sales and net profit respectively.

< !--[if !supportLists]--> 5. < !--[endif]--> Active efforts in investor relations increase investor awareness

Company has been active in the investor relation front. It frequently gives presentations and talks at brokerage houses. It also hosts regular plant tours to fund managers and analysts. The upcoming investor conference which the company would be presenting would be at UOB Kayhian Consumer Conference at around 10-11 Oct.

Some noteworthy risks

As with all investments, there are some noteworthy points to take note:

< !--[if !supportLists]--> 1. < !--[endif]--> Performance benchmark of RMB140m for Garden Fresh FY12 net profit

If Garden Fresh can meet the benchmark of RMB 140m and RMB250m in net profit in FY12F and FY13F, then CB holders are likely to convert their CB into shares of Garden Fresh based on a value of RMB1.5b for Garden Fresh. According to management, the beverage business is commanding a net margin of around 18%. 1HFY12 beverage revenue was around RMB392m, thus its net profit is likely to be around RMB70m. With the expansion of more locations and more channels for their beverage business, it is likely to reach the benchmark of RMB140m for this year.

< !--[if !supportLists]--> 2. < !--[endif]--> Failure for Garden Fresh to attain RMB80m net profit in FY12F

If Garden Fresh business fails to achieve RMB80m net profit in FY2012F, it constitutes a default for CB holders where CB holders can redeem their CBs. However, this situation is unlikely to materialize given the strong performance of its beverage business in 1HFY12 (Refer to point 1 above).

< !--[if !supportLists]--> 3. < !--[endif]--> Cash intensive business à May distribute little dividends, if any

It is apparent that Sino Grandness, in their industry and in this current high growth phrase, is likely to distribute very little dividends, if any. For example, it did not distribute dividends in FY11.

< !--[if !supportLists]--> 4. < !--[endif]--> S chip risk

Besides the usual corporate governance risk surrounding S chips, they also face liquidity risk and price risk as sentiment is still pretty poor on S chips. Sino Grandness is still pretty liquid (vs other S chips) with its average 30D and 100D EMA volume amounting to 2.3m and 2.8m of shares respectively. Sino Grandness has traded within a tight range between $0.455-0.480 on a closing basis since 31 Jul 12 (See Chart 1 below).

Chart 1: Sino Grandness chart

< !--[if !vml]--> < !--[endif]-->

Source: Shareinvestor (5 Oct 12)

Conclusion: Valuations undemanding strongest re-rating catalyst likely in 2HFY13

According to Bloomberg, Sino Grandness trades at FY12F PE of 3x and FY13F PE of 2.1x. Given the (still) poor sentiment on S chips, it is likely that market is waiting to see whether Sino Grandness can consistently deliver its results. The strongest potential re-rating catalyst is likely to be in 2HFY13 where it may commence work on the potential spin off of its subsidiary.

Good Post Bad Post

10-Oct-2012 10:02

Viking Offshore / VIKING OFFSHORE AND MARINE LTD

Go to Message

x 0

more n more buybacks

Viking Offshore and Marine Ltd 09-Oct-12 Share Buy-Back 245,000 0.1140

Good Post Bad Post

10-Oct-2012 09:46

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

Go to Message

x 0

more Put Warrants play (PW)

gd luck :) dyodd

ozone2002 ( Date: 09-Oct-2012 09:19) Posted:

IMF slashed global forecast..

knee jerk reaction to this news, more downside..

PW to rally..

gd luck dyodd..

ozone2002 ( Date: 08-Oct-2012 16:41) Posted:

fine performance by STI ..down 1% and HSI down close to 0.9%..

causing my put warrants (PW) to rally :)

gd luck dyodd.

Good Post Bad Post

10-Oct-2012 08:58

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

Go to Message

x 0

more PW anyone :)

gd luck dyodd

Good Post Bad Post

09-Oct-2012 16:31

AusGroup / AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m

Go to Message

x 0

gd luck.. dyodd..

ozone2002 ( Date: 03-Oct-2012 09:27) Posted:

support is @ 51.5 .. if it breaks below.. probably be end for the rally for the short term..

gd luck dyodd

ozone2002 ( Date: 02-Oct-2012 17:04) Posted:

58 to 53 that's 5c or ~10% fall.. that's pretty steep..

gd luck dyodd

Good Post Bad Post

09-Oct-2012 16:02

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

Go to Message

x 0

sliding down

HSI also sliding down from open

Straits Times

3,064.92

-11.73

-0.38%

Good Post Bad Post

09-Oct-2012 15:17

IPC Corp / Solid NTA 27c

Go to Message

x 0

IPC sliding down..

now 137

Good Post Bad Post

09-Oct-2012 13:16

Seatrium / Sembmarine

Go to Message

x 0

　

Secto r Update

Private Circulation Only

OFFSHORE & MARINE

Jason Saw

+65 6232 3871

jason.saw@sg.oskgroup.com

OFFSHORE & MARINE

OVERWEIGHT

 

Lee Yue Jer

+65 6232 3898

yuejer.lee@sg.oskgroup.com

Opportunities in the small/mid-caps

We belie ve small/mid-cap offshore & marine (O& M) and oil & gas (O& G) stocks could continue its strong outperformance against the big-caps as investors look to rotate into smaller cap plays with attractive valuations. We like companies with strong growth profile, track record in delivering profits and management with substantial stake in the company. In order of preference, our top three small/mid-cap picks are Ezion Holdings (BUY TP: S$2.02), Nam Cheong Holdings (BUY TP: S$0.29) and Technics Oil & Gas (BUY TP: S$1.28). Our top small/mid-cap picks are trading at 25-50% discount to P/E valuations (FY13F) for big-caps.

Small/mid-caps outshined the big-caps in the past three months. Nine of the top ten gainers in the past three months were stocks with market cap of less than S$1.5b, rising 10-40%. Our top small/mid-cap picks, Ezion, Nam Cheong and Technics, have surged 40%, 18% and 10% respectively, and we expect these stocks to continue its re-rating on strong earnings growth, and higher investors’ interest in the smaller cap space. We expect Ezion and Nam Cheong to announce record quarterly core net profit in their upcoming 3Q12 results.

Rig builders should deliver steady margins QoQ. We expect rig builders to deliver operating margins of 13-14%, lower than 3Q11 margins of 26.0% for Keppel and 16.2% for SMM but flat QoQ. The margins are likely to be in-line with guidance from management. The rig building outlook remains robust: (1) rig supply tightened further in 3Q12 with high contracting activities and (2) dayrates are rising with longer duration. We think Singapore rig builders are in a strong position to raise ASP, and this will be a key catalyst for valuation expansion.

Avoid Chinese shipyards with heavy exposure to the commercial (drybulk, containerships) shipbuilding due to excess shipbuilding capacity, pressure on margins for new orders, and deteriorating earnings visibility.

Summary of recommendations

Source: Company data and DMG estimates

Good Post Bad Post

09-Oct-2012 11:59

SinoGrandnes / Sino Grandness - a growth stock with low PE

Go to Message

x 0

China markets up 2%..

china stocks are currently undervalued...

Good Post Bad Post

09-Oct-2012 10:43

Seatrium / Sembmarine

Go to Message

x 0

buy on dippy :) .. anticipating more contracts to come by year end

gd luck dyodd

Good Post Bad Post

09-Oct-2012 10:41

Nam Cheong / Nam Cheong

Go to Message

x 0

has been moving up steadily and slowly..

with DBS recommending TP of 24c.. now @ 23.5..

time to take some profit.. congrats to those who had faith..

gd luck dyodd

ozone2002 ( Date: 28-Aug-2012 10:03) Posted:

enjoy the ride :)

gd luck dyodd

ozone2002 ( Date: 21-Jun-2012 09:48) Posted:

analysed this counter myself..

i give it a seal of approval.. very gd balance sheet and returns..

dyodd gd luck

Good Post Bad Post

09-Oct-2012 10:37

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

Go to Message

x 0

DBS reported limited upside..means more downside..SHORT!

dyodd gd luck!

Today’s Focus

•

selective beta plays like Oil & Gas stocks - SembCorp

Marine, Ezion, ASL Marine, STX OSV

There is less negative pressure in markets following the ECB’s

and Fed’s unlimited liquidity injection. However, for this rally to

be sustainable, we need to see less disappointment in headline

news, followed by growth indicators turning decisively

positive. Our regional strategist sees three key risks in ASEAN

as an out-performing region: (1) profit-taking in other markets

(2) lack of sectors to rotate into now that domestic demand

sectors have generally out-performed the market and (3)

policy tightening as inflation has bottomed and is increasingly

threatened by strong domestic demand and global liquidity.

For the Singapore market, it is only cheap on dividend yield

and P/B ratio compared to the rest of the region. Its earnings

and ROE outlook are less attractive. Consensus' general

Overweight position and the market's relative outperformance

could limit further upside. Yield compression and

a slower 2H12 are likely reasons to take profit. However, the

market will continue to be supported by strong yield plays. Our

analyst picks Suntec REIT and FCT. Key picks are the Oil & Gas

plays like SembCorp Marine are Ezion. We also like ASL Marine

and STX OSV.Singapore Market – Limited upside prefer yields and

Good Post Bad Post

09-Oct-2012 10:35

Viking Offshore / VIKING OFFSHORE AND MARINE LTD

Go to Message

x 0

company buybacks continue

Viking Offshore and Marine Ltd 08-Oct-12 Share Buy-Back 150,000 0.1140

Good Post Bad Post

09-Oct-2012 09:19

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

Go to Message

x 0

IMF slashed global forecast..

knee jerk reaction to this news, more downside..

PW to rally..

gd luck dyodd..

ozone2002 ( Date: 08-Oct-2012 16:41) Posted:

fine performance by STI ..down 1% and HSI down close to 0.9%..

causing my put warrants (PW) to rally :)

gd luck dyodd..

ozone2002 ( Date: 08-Oct-2012 11:07) Posted:

hope this will be the 1st of many drops..

gd luck dyod

Good Post Bad Post

First < Newer 1361-1380 of 7452 Older> Last

ShareJunction Version: 27 Nov 2020 ver - All Rights Reserved. Copyright ShareJunction Pte. Ltd. Disclaimer: All prices from are delayed. ShareJunction does not provide you with any financial advice. We are not into the business of providing any investment advice. See our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy of using this website. Data is delayed for varying periods of time depending on the exchange, but for at least 15 minutes. Copyright © SIX Financial Information Ltd. and its licensors. All Rights reserved. Further distribution and use by third parties prohibited. SIX Financial Information and its licensors make no warranty for information displayed and accept no liability for data and prices. SIX Financial Information reserves the right to adapt and/or alter this website at any time without prior notice.

Web design by FoundationFlux. Hosted with Signetique Cloud.