Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 26-Aug-2007 19:35 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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haha, as you say then. elfie's not bothered about much these days. let people (including meee! haha) talk as much as they want. as long as at the end of the day, i make my profits and they are sufficient, it is enough. i don't gotta be right, or the best, or whatever. the market dictates and the market proves the winners and the losers. to me, as long as i make enough for what i want, it's ok. the rest, as hamlet says, is silence. :) cheers! new week ahead. sigh. elfie dowan to work anymore. kbkbkbkbkbkbkkbkbkbk! wail. sigh. |
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| 26-Aug-2007 19:27 |
SMU E.y.E - Others
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A World Without Buffett
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possible to trade in bad markets. cos even if the general market is bad, there are still individual stocks that will move. plus, there's always CFD, or put warrants. traders make their money via volatility. so as long as there's volatility, there'll always be money to be made. perhaps where people lose, is where their grasp exceeds their ability. ie, let's just reach for what is within reach, rather than asking for the sky, sun, moon. key 'indicator': if you need to pray to God(s) for your stocks to go up, then, you're in above your head already. haha. :P no offence to anyone ah... |
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| 26-Aug-2007 19:14 |
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haha, no ipunter, the loss is borne by those who realised the loss. otherwise, it is only paper. long term investors, by virtue of sitting long term, could very well regain their cost and even make a profit over the years. :) how abt a video showing FA and TA instead... tradechancellor: yes. if the fed allows the market to drop for now, then there is a chance of a year end rally. but if they don't, what there is, is a premature rally. bigger bubble bigger pop. natural flow of things. china will influence, but currently on the global front, all eyes are only watching the US and the yen carry. there's bird flu too, of course. these are factors lurking at back of the mind. but anyway; sometimes, thinking too much is a burden and not necessary. first instincts are usually better. too much data clouds the mind. just gotta distinguish between instinct and impulse. after all is said and done, words are just that, theory. it's practical that determines whether one loses or win. i'll be the first to tell you that i'd unashamedly dump all my theory/talk the moment the charts show else-wise, and just act according to the emerging trend. i do wonder how much credence to give FA tho, when it appears that the pure TA-ists are the ones who have survived this fall almost unscathed? pardon, am still finding my own style.. ipunter, what were you before you retired? a trader? |
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| 26-Aug-2007 13:45 |
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anway. on to another topic. elfie's kinda bored on a slow sunday. so let's let the mind wander free. hehe. everyone's been going on about the zero sum game. which most take to mean as someone loses, someone wins. fair enough, but it's the details that are interesting. that's where we go into binary game theory (by john nash. anyone watched 'a beautiful mind'?). so the following are insane elfin calculations--yah, i'm too free haha, so pls don't take any of the below too seriously, but use of it what will aid you--in this current market, one needs to look at macro factors, because it's the macros which swing the market. This is less of actual stock technicals, but i guess, if we had to put a name to it, 'macro techs'?? because there are two current big swing macro factors that will influence the market in the near term--ie, sept to dec. The Fed decision, and the BOJ decision. Because we must remember that the money game is a linked game. It is not simply about the subprime, and US home owners defaulting. it is about the global flow of money. The damn subprime is linked to one bigger issue: the yen carry trades. Because if big boys are losing big (think DBS to the tune of 2.4 billion, when they first under-reported as 1.3 bil), and the funds for their play is going down because the yen rates are increasing and no one is lending, then, they need to take money when they can (ie, take the rebounds), and they need to make money when they can (ie, then short it low). A frog-in-the-well mentality of "my company's not linked to the subprime at all, its FA report show that it's doing well, so it'll not go down because the BBs will not sell it!" does not serve one at all. Because bottomline of a BB's mentality: i'm losing big in one area, i'm making profits in another. What will i do? Take profits and shore up the losses, the devil takes the hindmost. Markets move because of sentiment. The intentions of the BBs set the game. Then, if people think it'll go down, they sell, so it will exacerbate the cycle. so if we were to apply the binary game matrix to the current market, this is how it will look like. 1) Fed cuts rates: market will massively rally up. That's short term. BUT, as historical precedents show, everytime the Fed cuts, the dow tests new lows in the next three months. for the simple reason that the fundamental problems have not been solved. 2) Fed holds, or doesn't cut sufficient: Markets will backlash, since this current rise is entirely on hopes of a fed cut of 50 basis points. ie, markets have already factored in a rate cut. 3) BOJ maintains rates (meeting sept 19, one day aft the Fed): markets maintain, or up. 4) BOJ raises rates--hence carry trades will start to unwind: markets will drop as traders unwind their carry positions. down. Put these four variations together in a binary 0-1 matrix. Short term to oct, what you get is an even toss-up: either massive up (best case scenario: BOJ maintains, Fed cuts: the 1-1 situation), or massive down (Fed holds, BOJ raises: ie, an 0-0 situation), or somewhere in between (the other two possible scenarios). but long term, post dec. What's it likely to be? The subprime has not been resolved. It's only swept under the carpet. and the longer the problem is held off, the more massive the damage is likely to be. I mean, look at it: we had signs since march! Currently, lehman brothers, the biggest underwriters of subprime mortgages in the US, and HSBC, are laying off workers. Citibank and Bank of America are asking for breaking of the rules. What does that tell you? Does it matter how strong the singapore market is, if globally the funds---the BBs with the money--are going down? that's something to think about. elfie has only one conclusion for the longer term: hold no stocks. buy puts for march 08. methodically, on every rally of the dow and sti, starting sept 19th. no big positions needed. will i continue to play if there are rallies? of course, on a technical basis, lightly. But when the long term signs are clear, then one basic rule of investing holds true: never give up long term gains for the short term. usual disclaimer: above strictly my insane opinions. i'm definitely no expert. and have been proven wrong on many occasions. haha. so caveat emptor. 
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| 26-Aug-2007 13:22 |
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additional: don't even try using MACD for short term and intraday trading. you'd likely kill yourself cos it's too slow for this kind of trading. and yah, pikachu, TA is half art half science. the science is in the numbers, but the elusive art, is in the interpretation of those numbers. us techies, we're star gazers and star readers. haha. |
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| 26-Aug-2007 13:08 |
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tradechancellor: SJ charts: MACD: i'll use ho bee as example (and no, not vested): the black i meant was the bars actually, not the centre line (0.0 value). if all the bars are above the centre line, implication is long term uptrend (with waves up and down, of course): so ho bee from oct last year all the way to jun 1 is a general uptrend. but you can see the ceasing of the uptrend from abt 10th apr to jun 1, when the black bars start going down--the sell signal, when the red line cut above the black bars, came on 13th april. So going by MACD, from 13th april, you would not choose to enter the counter at all. until perhaps 15th or 16 aug, when the red cuts below the black bars, all below the centre line. implication is bottoming out of the downtrend. note: might be dangerous to play this tho: because you're essentially buying for an uptrend on a long term downtrend. ie, tech rebound. whether the rebound is true or not (ie, true rebound/breakout) is confirmed only if the black bars can hit above the middle line. If all the bars are below the middle line and consistently fail to break above it, then it's long term downtrend (eg, gems tv, from april 12 to now). note: the above is just for MACD. generally, i wouldn't use just one indicator on a counter, esp when deciding crucial points like breakouts or buy/sell signal. But MACD is good to use for long term counters, esp when deciding to maintain the decision to hold. |
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| 26-Aug-2007 12:54 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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concur with newmoon, ipunter and the rest. dow is up 142 points on volume of only 1.2mil contracts. the day it dipped, the no: of contracts was 45mil. same for sti. tech bounces on thin volumes are not to be trusted. also note one more thing: quite a few of the blues have already rebounded to a relatively decent level (eg, sembcorp from 4.64 to 5.35). the institutions have this option known as borrowing the blues. where they can trade short term for profit. now think as a BB: you are making major losses on other global stocks. You are making profit on asia/sgx stocks. it is a volatile market. there are people with 45 day clawback on redemption of funds: you know how much you have to return, which the market doesn't. Are you going to let your profit ride, or would you take money that's confirmed on the table? having said that tho: short term STI is likely to be up. level to hit is 3450. then it's a massive up or down. toss a coin, even chance. october will be the month to watch. i'll be out of the country. haha. |
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| 26-Aug-2007 12:47 |
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hihi singaporegal! *hugs* 'affected badly': haha. depends on your point of view. this correction did wipe out quite a fair bit of my profits for the year; but overall am still up about 20% for the year. so i guess that's ok, albeit a bit disappointing. but anw, it's just lessons learnt along the way, so gotta take it in a positive light. :) am almost all in cash now; and apart from some rapid trading on warrants (have been playing strangles) and a few counters, don't intend to go in for the long haul just yet: i figure we'll have about 3 weeks of relative peace (ie, stagnant to up) til about sept 17. then, depending on the fed and BOJ decision, it's either a massive upswing or a massive downswing. am personally not willing to take the risk. (more on the mathematics later) am currently trying to decide my own movement for the next 3 weeks really. figure the sti has upside to go to 3450, then depending on whether it can break the V formation, it's either a greater fall or up (yes, sounds very duh, but the fine details are what matters): if up, the level is 3,600. if down, it's to 3045. ie, at this stage, risk to reward ratio is 2: 1. no go sign for long term counters. but for short term trading, still undecided... and one more thing too: i do need to limit my trading esp since i need to focus on my job now. will be out of the country and on course for a full five weeks end sept to early nov. so in a rush to hand in projects before i leave. and considering that 5 weeks is a long time in this volatile market, certainly don't intend to leave my funds exposed. |
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| 23-Aug-2007 14:49 |
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hm sohguanh, if one is really into making money, then it isn't so simple as in keying in the day before and check the status at night. not unless you're that good in predicting the prices; or are willing to settle for lesser profits. unless one is that zen that, in this kind of market fall, you can still look at the screen only once a day. i don't believe there isn't a single investor who could do that the past two weeks without worry. anw, no point whining. just adapt and play accord. will likely trade the way you said; thanks for pointing it out. :) stupidfool, my point is not abt an entire office playing shares and not working. my point is: if i can WORK EFFECTIVELY and trade, why should i be penalised for being more efficient? as it is, i was hired for one thing and am taking on two other persons' jobs. but i still deliver on time, i've never missed a single deadline. AND i'm being made to take on more. (can i clarify here that i've never been the kind to work only one job at a time. previous years, i held one full time and two part times) anw, like i said, moot point. what is, is. just follow accordingly. i will not expect sympathy or any such crap from anyone: cos ultimately, life is how you make it. people block one way, there is still another. no such thing as dead end. i'm still gonna spin straw into gold no matter and whatever it takes. hehe. cheers to all! :) |
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| 23-Aug-2007 13:18 |
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typo: i meant popdod. aside: elfie's office is blocking websites and tracking our mails and net usage. so won't be posting much during office hrs now. :( i really don't see the logic of it tho. i mean, i can make 2 mths salary in a single week trading (of course, i can also lose just as much ahahaha). but the point is, if i can work effectively, AND trade, why should a basic freedom like net surfing be curtailed? i got a flat to pay for! if i don't trade, i have to work til what, 35 to make enough for other ppl, and then when do i start earning for myself?!!! )(#*_(#&_(*&@_ govt job. :( |
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| 23-Aug-2007 13:12 |
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ok, the news i was referring to below is out. the lender has been named, so it's ok if i say it out now (since it's no longer slander, or speculation...SJ-ers pls excuse me for not saying earlier; but i didn't want to say anything based on rumor/speculation, since that engenders unnecessary panic). popodod posted it on the dow/sti thread: it's lehman brothers that is in trouble. one more firm yet to be named. wld be interesting to see if this has any effect on the current positive sentiment. |
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| 22-Aug-2007 21:01 |
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if the risk/reward ratio is 1: 2.5 or more, i take it. having said that tho, it isn't an exact science. so what now? if the fed does cut rates, we're likely to see a rally and spike, and then a swift down? |
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| 22-Aug-2007 20:56 |
SingaporeLandGrp
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hm yea. this baby's on my hit list too. not done downtrending yet; rather surprising since most of the blues have found their bottoms and are pinging off for now. next support is abt 2.24. watch for bottoming. |
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| 22-Aug-2007 20:51 |
Seatrium
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WHY THE BIG VOLUMES?
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hi sporeguy, meaning 2 or 3 sept is the last day for buying in for the bonus shares? |
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| 22-Aug-2007 17:45 |
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nope not hsbc. meant more of a lender, or at least that's what i think they are. one of the biggest underwriters of mortgages. but erm, better not say more. for one thing, it is just rumors; let's just see how the market goes rather than scaring ourselves. but anw, ooh, doesn't the sti look pretty today????? :))))) damn it, this is a perfect trader's market. i wanna quit and trade full time! anyone wants to hire meeee? haha. elfie's sold her puts and bought calls (today) and cosco (yesterday). ready to lelong tmrw liao. heehee. and yah, giantlow, re smb: i'm terrible at this holding thing too! :( so what's an elf gonna do? scalp! wheeee....... |
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| 22-Aug-2007 17:12 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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jackjames....HEEHEE. :P watch the dow tonight. likely close positive. if so, cosco shd chiong to 4.9 within opening hr. fast play. ;) |
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| 21-Aug-2007 23:43 |
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hm. just a note to all (strictly my own opinion): i do not believe the worst of the subprime is over yet. the problem itself will take a long time, likely years to solve, but in the coming weeks, i do expect more, and not less, volatility. because some of the large US funds/banks have not reported the full extent of their losses yet. and if even a notable like goldman sachs has to bail out one of its funds, and UBS hedge fund is in trouble (the reported cases), then yea, i do not believe the full extent is known yet. esp since fed suddenly cut rates to banks. like i posted somewhere else before: someone somewhere must have approached the govt for a bail out. i know from privileged sources that at least one other US fund/bank is rumored to be in trouble. it's a big name which everyone knows. and the qn is why hasn't the dow released that news yet. waiting for the funds and BBs to finish offloading to the hay bees first? will likely cause panic and further selling if it's true. it's just a rumor tho. so let's see how. but do keep cautious ppl. :) |
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| 21-Aug-2007 23:35 |
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when do the dow futures open actually? yea, right now, as far as possible, i try to close everything within the day. too volatile... rather small gains than risk losing big. altho of course, this also means i 'lost' the friday to monday chiong. but ah well. can't win it all. lets see what the fed closed door meeting is about... ok, nites for now! :) |
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| 21-Aug-2007 23:31 |
Trading Techniques
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Rejoice in a Stock Market Correction
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dang. lost my post. argh. see if you can find singaporegal's article on TA on the SJ archives or something. it gives a very good intro to the indicators. poems, i go to LP2. but i use SJ and my own trading acct's charts. all free heehee. :P but roughly, since you're in it long haul, use MACD, a/d, chaikin, rsi/williams. MACD: when it's all above the middle line, => long term uptrend. all below, => long term down trend. basically, you buy when red is below the black (SJ charts). your buy signal is when the lines cross. playful amphibians, which you can't name. o_0 newts, salamanders? aw c'mon, curiosity kills an elf. besides, i'm giving out TA info here. gotta give back ya know. :P |
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| 21-Aug-2007 23:18 |
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hi synnexo, am not quite sure about the range; if you read the reports tho, they'll tell it's 'tipped to open slightly negative' etc....so i use that as my cue too. generally, if it's a small number (less than 100), i wouldn't take it to be significant, esp in a negative climate. dow is down. i can't quite decide if i shd cheer for sti to be up or down tmrw. forum seems quiet too. sigh. elfie got nobody to yak with. sighhh. ah well. mebbe time to sleep anw. anr long work day tmrw. double sigh. |
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