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07-Sep-2007 19:05

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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keke. kilroy, concur with the keeping on toes part. and "see and sieze". like command and conquer, eh? hahahaha. elfie's been singing the blues. and as victorf pointed out, penny time! dum da dum! whee!

hehe. aside: i still do think long term direction is likely down. the US elections is key. they cannot let the market correct before then. but short term, STI is testing its resistance. let's just see how it does. i only got til end sept to play before i leave the country anw.

hope you're doing fine!

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07-Sep-2007 18:59

SUTL Enterprise / potiential stock to watch ?

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whee hoo! hullo fellow achieva-ers! :)

synnexo, have been busy with work, no access to net on some days. *kbkbkbkb*

moogee, surf board still ready? don't fall asleep on the watch hor....keke.

novicetrader, relax lah....while there's absolutely no guarantee it can hit 30c, it is definitely on the move. To get an idea of its pattern of movement, cf the charts from may 25th all the way to peak ~23rd Jul.

in a nutshell: what achieva did then was to ramp up a small bit first (comparative to its sudden run from 14.5 to now), then stagnate for a while, before the real breakout occurs. i suspect it might repeat the same pattern this time around. the reason for the first smaller run up is to provide a platform for the latter run-up to spike up on; since this way, if you're a BB, you can actually buy more lots, albeit at a higher price, by inducing those who bought at 12-14.5 to throw to you at 18-19.5c. Then when happy with the collection, can start the ramp up. Thereby earning more. You see this story all over the SGX, even for blues. It is what accounts for the W formation in price/vol charts (signal for spike up).

The volume appears to correlate with what i said. dlimck, can perhaps ignore 5th sept data; if you track queue data, its mostly retail trades only. Plus, T+3 from last friday, hence, traders would sell since the profit is a good ~24%. In dollar perspective: on 100 lots, that's an easy 3 to 3.5k for three days work.

usual caveat emptor applies yea. above is wholly my opinion only. charts-wise, this baby is strong. chaikin shows has been on accumulation since 8 aug, despite the crazy 17 aug selldown. MACD (long term) also shows we're out of the woods since 3rd sept.

note: if you're a sub-20er and have been having sleepless nights, might consider running some at slight/no loss first... might be good to practice some conservation principles since the general market is still quite skittish. Of course, if you're the what-the-heck type, hang in there for the ride! It's either gonna be achievaaarggh, or achieva ha ha! Smiley

PS: large lots. it's the large lots one must track in order to see the real direction of movement.

PPS: anyone looking at easttech and FJBen? the former hasn't quite started moving yet, while the latter is beginning to. heehee. elfie has been surfing sembmar. wheeee! keke.

note: caveat emptor for everything above. NOT an inducement to buy/sell. I'm strictly a retailer and a fellow hay bee. hahahahha.

Smiley

the small elf

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04-Sep-2007 09:14

SUTL Enterprise / potiential stock to watch ?

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watch achieva. resistance at 18 broken; currently 19/19.5. from market depth there's a clear ride all the way post 20c. very few sellers.

elfie has to be on ground so can't watch *wail* but be careful with this counter; those of you who were in before shd remember: it moves rapid and fast up and down. the bbs here do not queue.

today's day one of breakout. surf's up! whee!

;)

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03-Sep-2007 17:01

SUTL Enterprise / potiential stock to watch ?

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lol. synnexo, you overestimate me lah. i can't afford to buy 1290 lots at one shot. haha. did vest in some more at 14.5 last fri tho. pleasant surprise and good news for all of us! :)

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02-Sep-2007 15:31

Entertainment / Life Like This

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haha! sporeguy, i second you!

tried paying once at a coffee shop with two 5c coins (among other notes and coins), only to have them thrown back at me and the auntie rudely saying "5c coin not accepted."

like, kaoz. if not accepted then we should just scrap the currency!

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02-Sep-2007 14:42

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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hm. clarification: "There will always be motives, there will always be agendas."

meant on part of the BBs. be it something as bernanke wanting to keep his job, or political pressure on him, or quite simply, self preservation by the funds/BBs.

fact is, policies are always set in favour of those in power. small time players, vs big time funds that can keep a politician/bank in power, that can bankroll a campaign worth millions of dollars: whose side is the policy likely to be in favour of?

Aristotle once said, that "Man is a political animal." In light of Darwinian theory, he's likely right.

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02-Sep-2007 13:57

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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hey newmoon, do relax a little. :) elf sees where you're coming from, and i agree with you. but then, it's called a market place precisely because it is that: a market place.

think chaotic, think greed, think fear and hope, irrationality and egomania. this will always be a manipulated place, and well, just because "it ought to be so" doesn't mean that it will be so. there will always be motives, there will always be agendas. The macro trend sets the game, and then, the rest of the chess pieces fall into line. It is a fixed board. as small time players, or even sBBs, we can simply follow the trend, that's all.

so please do take care of yourself and don't get so agitated or angry, or emotional. Cheers. :)

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02-Sep-2007 13:50

Entertainment / Fellowship of the Shares

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yea baseerahmed, agree with jessie. :)

and thanks kilroy. your posts have been educational. do keep them coming when you can. :)

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30-Aug-2007 07:43

Entertainment / Fellowship of the Shares

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sigh. cks, you're an optimist by nature, that's why you're suited for long term FA play. but remember gems tv?

but the economy of a country, and the prices of its stocks are TWO DIFFERENT THINGS. The open talk of the BBS is actually optimism, but the whisper numbers are the opposite. it's a qn i'm trying to figure out, to be fair: whether asia with its strong economy can be dragged down by the US. but then. that's overstepping the techs. don't actually have to think so hard. forums are full of white noises.

in any case, elf has had enough talk. job is imposing frustrating restrictions and i'm going to be out of the country for more than a month. let the market decide the game. at the final bell, if i'm on profit, i pretty much don't give a damn about anything else: it's like you quoted: full of sound and fury, signifying, nothing.

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29-Aug-2007 09:03

SUTL Enterprise / potiential stock to watch ?

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posted earlier but my connection d/ced... novicetrader: lowest is jan 07 px, worst case scenario. ie, 8c. so need to calculate carefully: if the price dif from when you bought to now is more than the fall left, might be more worthwhile to average out at the lowest. (do not think below 10c actually...) do note opp cost of holding in tho: will take 3-6 mths for recovery. i'm default long term holdings too. haha. see how. last chance for running will be fed rate cuts.

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29-Aug-2007 07:41

Entertainment / Fellowship of the Shares

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cks: wrt your UBS ppt:

are you sure? because the internal talk i get from the houses and banks is that what is approaching is known as the Theory of the Black Swan.

check their actions versus their talk. in psychology, one judges by deeds, not intent nor words. the charts show you everything of what they are doing.

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29-Aug-2007 07:36

Entertainment / Fellowship of the Shares

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eastonbay: what's tai hei meh? bun bun's free from job woes, so hopping about happily i guess. hehe.

dramas are for the plebeian folks who cannot behave with grace and equanmity in a public forum.

yep, welcome back, and do watch your portfolio. :)

same goes for the rest of the fellowship. keep calm today; the bloodshed will be led by the blues that have risen 10-25% above their lowest point on 17th aug.

strike px for long term holdings: sub Jan 07 prices. no hurry at all. penny holders need to consider: if you bought at high, might not be worth to cut now, since the differential of the fall from your buy price as opposed to the baseline up to now might make it more worthwhile to average down at the final dip.

the last chance for running for the year: the fed rate cut.

the picture has been written in the stars already, so now, just have to follow. focus on what's in front, people.

k, gotta wk, byes!

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29-Aug-2007 07:27

Trading Techniques / Understanding Bear Markets

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that's cos you're in low betas, isn't it? alt pennies.

falls are led by the blues, recoveries by them as well. switch play method to survive. pennies are out for 4Q of year. they'll take at least 3-6 mths to recover. the timing of the rate cut (bernanke's hand has been forced, i believe) will determine the low 3 mths from that date.

i might opt total contrarian and just play warrants. full cash plays. returns are faster anyway, so one's money doesn't have to be overexposed to risk.

keep light, keep liquid.

in any case, that the sti will fall today is almost a given in view of the 280 dow fall. i do not think the pennies will fall that much tho, most of them are at baseline already for these few weeks. and BBs are not in them. what investors need to be careful of: the tipping point.

ie, a fresh round of forced margin calls, that will flush out even the sBBs. when this happens, that will be the real fall to sub 3000.

i have puts still. ;)

hope you're doing alright, kind sir. :)

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28-Aug-2007 22:00

SMU E.y.E - Others / A World Without Buffett

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hi thewizard,

the most important thing you'll need: belief in yourself.

the most important thing you'll NOT need: overconfidence.

hope you can find the balance. good luck. :)

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28-Aug-2007 21:55

Others / DOW

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indices for fellow SJ-ers....billywows, do kindly post if you have the news of the data when they're released? alt the link to them...thanks in advance. :)

Aug 28 9:50am ?	Change	%Change	Level

Dow	-66.90	-0.50%	13,255.23
NASDAQ	-18.66	-0.73%	2,542.59
S&P	-10.23	-0.70%	1,456.56

DJ Wilshire 5000	-108.14	-0.73%	14,661.19
Russell 2000	-7.85	-0.99%	781.60
Philadelphia Semiconductor	-2.70	-0.55%	484.13
Dow Transports	-51.86	-1.07%	4,815.11
Dow Utilities	+1.87	+0.39%	484.68
NYSE Composite	-79.37	-0.83%	9,449.56
AMEX Composite	-24.48	-1.09%	2,213.88
Morningstar Index	-18.66	-0.52%	3,543.47

*10yr Note	-0.3300	-0.072%	4.563%
*NYMEX Crude Oil	-0.22	-0.31%	71.75
Gold	-1.70	-0.25%	674.50

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28-Aug-2007 21:52

Trading Techniques / Understanding Bear Markets

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but a consistent -0.xx% means it's dropping overall right?

sitting on gains: am quite sure of this. because the day of the big dip, closing bell and consequent days had huge lots buy ups for a lot of the blues. (could be share buybacks too) but that petered out last week. the counters i was tracking: kep corp, semb corp, semb mar, cosco. they're plateauing now. am of an inclination that the shorting's gonna begin soon.

yesss....i type fast. told ya already. hey, we got ten fingers, man. i type without looking at keyboard. whaddya do, single finger typing? :P

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28-Aug-2007 21:39

Trading Techniques / Understanding Bear Markets

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sigh. oh kilroy, you're a techie, you shd know it better than me...elfie can't sleep....wail. lemme go grab my teddy bear first. sick...

ok...back to topic...

because global markets are interlinked.

because the dow and europe markets have given up all their gains for the year, and the only market sitting on gains is Asia.

global markets being interlinked means the flow of funds, which dictates price movements, are linked. it's the fundamental of chaos theory!

or in the simplest of psychology: if you're losing big in one area, wouldn't you cash out another area that's on profit, in order to remedy or at least mitigate your loss?

it's robbing peter to pay paul.

the drivers of the world are the U.S and China. One is falling, the other is mistrusted, and a closed market: ie, at this stage of SCI being 5000 plus, no one is going to believe its further rises but are instead on alert for a fall. ie, only minuses will be accounted for in the global market reaction, not pluses.

Hence, "isn't the economy still rosy?"--the answer to that is a question: "whose economy?"

STI is not a trend setter; it's a trend follower. It's nothing to do with our economy. It's to do with the flow of funds.

btw, i got one stupid qn to ask you: if the quote for US vs yen is -0.xx%, does it mean the dollar is weakening against the yen?

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28-Aug-2007 20:41

Trading Techniques / Understanding Bear Markets

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aw, c'mon kilroy, no need to be jealous. you're an experienced trader yourself, plus, you have forex! :)

anw, just some realisations from my personal limited, recent experience (stress: limited) with this particular instrument:

warrants are some of the most fleet-footed instruments in the investment field, since they track the movement of an underlying index or stock. poetically, i like to think of them this way: they're the expectation of an expectation.

so hehe, mister kilroy, ya gotta give the little elf more credit for speed than that.

ie, from that last 'kilroy, my puts are up! Smiley

' post i did sometime the week before, the elfin picture for last week/week before should more accurately read as:

"kilroy, my puts are up! Smiley

. kilroy, my calls are up! Smiley

kilroy, my puts are up! Smiley

"

:P

man, i'm so annoying. haha.

on a more serious note tho: sometime last week i posted that the BBs were likely to have ran on the rebound. if anyone's been reading the straits times, back page today, my guess on BB psychology/movement has unfortunately been proven right: foreign funds outflow for last week was triple that of the crazy dip week.

Not a good sign at all. >~<

ok, elfie's been working too intensely. have been sick. gonna try and puke and then go to sleep. nites.

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28-Aug-2007 09:16

Trading Techniques / Understanding Bear Markets

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yeps kilroy, good post. on lookout for the good blues now, tho not yet. this time for long term. :)' in the meantime: Warrants Are Friends. heehee.

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26-Aug-2007 19:37

Entertainment / Fellowship of the Shares

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yeps, learning's always good. :) have been on a pretty steep learning curve myself, esp this year. so that's good. :)

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