Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 15-Oct-2007 21:44 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hey baseerahmed, thanks for the welcome. :) just had time to scroll through the posts. hehe, shplayer, wine for asia's coming up. going for that? i bought back some good bottles from laos (remember, they were a former french colony)... unfortunately couldn't bring more. hahaha. ok, gotta catch up with my stocks. lets see what's left for the year. cheers to all! :) |
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| 15-Oct-2007 17:52 |
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hullo! am back! missed me? haha. will do proper post at home; office blocking the site proper loading. laos is a beautiful, beautiful country (with a lot of historical intrigue too, for the history buffs). still a bit dreamy...wanna go back. sigh. sean68, not no direction; but gotta be very sharp. only certain counters are moving. market doing well; elfie's locked in her blues. taken final positions for easttech and FJBen. let's see. still holding on achieva: it's being played. follow MACD long term for clearer direction. |
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| 28-Sep-2007 11:39 |
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mrswatanabe9
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heya wai leng, no prob. :) and great that you have your goals. am sure you'll be able to reach them. :) no problem not knowing anything too; we all started out new. abt TA (technical analysis): kilroy's right abt indicator shifting and all that too: TA is actually quite tricky to do. his bottomline is what i agree with as well: that the trend dictates which indicator you use. shortening indicator period: yep, you need to know what time period you're looking at. and rather than shortening it to suit the volatility, it's more changing it to fit your time period. apologies if i gave any misconceptions. it's actually easier if you have the graphs in front of you, and one can demo live. ok, leaving for hols soon! byes ppl! *yay!!!!* PS: try graham's the intelligent investor. that's for value investing. |
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| 28-Sep-2007 00:08 |
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mrswatanabe9
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addendum: if it's TA you're talking about: need to be careful. a lot of ppl do not believe in TA. but i fully suspect it might be a case of mismatch: not all stocks respond to all indicators. you need to ensure certain parameters are fulfilled first. best is to see on back historical data. check which indicators are most accurate for a specific stock. need to keep in mind too that macro trends affect the sensitivity of an indicator. if you're using SJ charts (a/d, c/o, MACD etc), the 'easier' counters to play are ones like ho bee and allgreen. consistent responsiveness to indicators demonstrated. this is a very volatile period tho, so use the most sensitive of the lead indicators for first strike: chaikin and williams. Put your MA crosses at 3 and 10 days for confirmation. Use MACD to see longer term trend movement, and ride it to the exhaustion of the trend. cheers! |
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| 28-Sep-2007 00:01 |
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mrswatanabe9
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just saw this thread. haha. wai leng, don't get scared off by all these guys. perhaps even before TA and FA, the important thing is to understand one's own personality. ie, your risk profile. How much loss can you stomach. what % before you get kancheong and sleepless? do you tend to shoot your winners and hold your losers? to what degree? know yourself first, then draw up a list of 'rules', and by trial and error, perfect your rules. btw, it's not always true that blue chips are expensive. sometimes, what one needs to look at is the rate of return. for instance, this recovery is solely led by the blues. if you had wanted 'cheap' and gone for pennies, you'd still be stuck, since the pennies have not recovered fully. but if one can follow the wind, and played the blues, you'd have made more. (yes, buying cost is more ex, but then, the returns are higher). also, if you're fast enough, wld have played the blues early phase, exit, into a few good pennies, ride them til now. it's what i call cantilevering. allows you to make the most of a small sum of money. (doesn't always work tho. needs very fine sense of timing and quite a bit of watching. urgh.) so perhaps start by setting a realistic % target you want to hit? then divide up your sum to play for value, trading and momentum. see which you're most comfortable with. oh, and never sacrifice long term goals for short term gains. one does not need to enter every single 'good trade' in order to win. that's one of the most impt things i learnt. do hope it can help you along. :) k, nites all! |
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| 27-Sep-2007 23:48 |
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heya all of you! :) thanks baseerahmed and cks for the well wishes. am definitely needing this break! get away from things. haha. singaporegal, i don't think the forumers would want you to go on hols. wait market crash. :P and yep cks, elfie's got some blues still in acct. will just leave it in. internal talk is that there'll be a second rate cut in oct. (caveat emptor ah) nites all! |
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| 25-Sep-2007 21:29 |
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signs turning for two of my weather vanes. kep corp and semb corp. both might be peaking soon. just fyi for the vested. 2 more days to hols...can't wait. argh. |
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| 23-Sep-2007 18:06 |
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haha cks, the elfie always likes a good emoticon (and a good alcohol. :P). thanks for cheering up my days! :) altho i shd definitely be cutting down on my drinks! haha. leaving the country this coming friday...can't wait. sigh. work's been...well, less than desirable. >~< tanglinboy: everytime you key in an order on iOCBC, it sends an sms confirmation to your hp as well (Order to the exchange for xxxx is successfully submitted). then when the sale actually goes through, you get a 2nd confirmation (order to exchange was done at xxxx hrs, xxx lots for xxxx price.) i like this feature a lot; since you can key in morning/day before and if the sale goes through you can immediately know, rather than having to log on and check. oh and you can set alerts for sms too: so at a certain price, iocbc will let you know that the stock has hit that. both services are free. charting with iOCBC (my personal opinion) is not bad; altho i like the colours on SJ better. haha. what's very useful is the money flow indicator and the market depth, queue track features. you need to trade above a certain % commission to see the market depth and queue track tho. it's very good for seeing BB action since you can ferret out false queues and genuine ones. it gives you an idea of support for the counter too, what price to queue your sell so that you can get it. with market depth, you can essentially see that some trades are virtually impossible to make. oh and for the intraday punters, the best feature of iOCBC has got to be the intraday live ticker. very good for scalping intraday trades using crosses. have used it successfully on the high volatility counters. need to be very careful tho; there might be a tendency to get carried away cos its so easy to use. better to stick with long term trades for bread and butter; and use the intraday trades for some small punts. cheers! |
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| 23-Sep-2007 11:27 |
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hihi, singaporegal, i'm using iocbc. i like this platform a lot; its quite intuitive to use. only trouble is some days with heavy vol, it hangs. but i guess that's a standard problem with almost all platforms? tanglinboy....hm yea...thanks for the suggestion. will go check. :) we're not allowed to change any functions or download stuff tho, so likely nothing much i can do....anyhow, will go try. hehe. lazy sunday. damn, i wish weekends wouldn't go so fast! cheers to everyone! :) |
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| 22-Sep-2007 10:10 |
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Substantial holder dumping share. We need input.
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hi soloman, (the following is my personal opinion only): if one's unsure, then, assuming you're on profit, it's always better to lock in first. or to lock in a certain %. Afterall, if you're wrong, you just buy back at a slightly higher price. but rather than thinking of this as a 'loss', from another perspective, it's actually the surety of an uptrend. And profit in the pocket is exactly that: realised profit. having said that tho: TA charts are odd. bollies pinching in for a lot of counters, and some are signalling MACD (longer term) might be peaking soon. Some have already peaked. There's a large directional change coming up. But unknown which way yet. Bernanke's motive is politically linked. and in politics there is a word: spin. They gotta gloss it to make it look good. That's the talk. But who walks the walk? ie, whose intentions and actions control the actual market movement? One needs to follow the walker, not the talker. Trade with care. |
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| 22-Sep-2007 09:51 |
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singaporegal! *hugs* block SJ page: not exactly block it, but can't load the 'post reply' page properly; which means if i do type, it's everything in one continuous paragraph. which would be damn tedious to read. so i don't post. actually, not only the load SJ pg is blocked; the SJ charts are too. and the SGX general announcements. so i can see prices but can't read the co's history/div announcemnets, or do some quick TA etc. thankfully my trading platform's not blocked. ah well, just as good; since i shd be working. haha. cks, thanks for the choir. always appreciate your emoticons. :) direction of market: aiyah. i'm a realist. i don't care about being wrong or right in theory as long as in practice, i'm making money. heehee. altho hm. not totally related but in line with the livermore/manikamaniko debate on the STI thread...whenever one says market direction is up/down, i think should be careful. cos as different people, we have different perceptions of what is 'long' and 'short' term. eg, when i say down, i can be meaning for the next day only; whereas another person with a longer term direction (say 1 year) would be saying up. And both of us can be right. ...and having said that, let me just say that 3 mths is a long time for me. haha. ok, gonna go sentosa for sun, sand, sea and alcohol. ahhh. byebye! |
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| 19-Sep-2007 15:35 |
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lol. still here. but busy wrapping up wk and trading market. will be leaving next fri. total out of action = 6 weeks til nov 7. trying to run my counters. sti up but vol is low for such an up. looks like churning going on, esp since few of the blues are hitting new highs; they're mostly revisiting them only. am uncomfortable that stocks are up but gold up too; indication's that rally is almost at an end. has been a nice ride since aug 17 tho. sept 19 BOJ decision. watch for shortists aft. ok, back to wk! SJ pg blocked by office. |
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| 13-Sep-2007 09:31 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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hmm...synnexo, do you think if i post here more often, achieva will go up faster? hahahaha. hang in there, achievers! (thanks to dlimck for the moniker. hehe): 1,277 lot buy up at 9.03 am. subsequent quite a few 100-200 lot buy ups. would personally prefer a consistent 1c up per day rather than a sudden spike up in one day tho. the former's more sustainable. let's see. cheers to all! (dang, where's a cks pom-pom emoticon when you need one...) aie...ok, back to work! |
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| 12-Sep-2007 17:21 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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oop, pai seh. no change in direction/pattern, so didn't see need to post. dun wanna hype up expectations or depress ppl unnecessarily. haha. anw, as per my earlier post: think achieva's following its previous pattern. ie, expect some squatting here for some time first, before a final chiong. the way the charts (of a lot of stocks) are going, there's an upward breakout expected; my guess is the catalyst will be the fed cut. has strong support at 18. let's see. still holding onto this one. :) |
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| 12-Sep-2007 17:13 |
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btw, is anyone in with me on easttech? heehee. |
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| 12-Sep-2007 17:06 |
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hullo bunnie, can play from now til abt mid oct. (note the following are a mix of my own opinions and internal houses 'talk', so caveat emptor to all) fed's hands are tied; markets have already factored in a 50 basis cut; so if they don't, markets will violently react, which will then force Fed to cut anyway. pick the babies which haven't yet broken out of their bollies; need to be careful tho, a lot of counters are actually overbought and 0 on williams alr. so one of two: buy in now and wait for cut, then sell; or if fed doesn't cut, market dips in a kneejerk, buy in more. fed cuts, sell all. leep cash for nov. that's when you start picking up for long term. the houses are extending the run to ~ mid oct, then a drop in nov. up for 08 cos US elections and china Olympics. it's a fixed board. do expect volatility all the way tho. shortists having a field time. watch gold as your market indicator. gold breaking 720 sustained is your sign to run out of equities. ok. wail. back to work. someone buy me out!!!! :( |
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| 10-Sep-2007 16:08 |
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Pay Off Your Debt or Invest?
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singaporegal! *hugs* :))) gonna go backpacking end sept to mid oct. North Laos. no email, ,no internet, no tv. ahhhh. Then return and got a 3 week course. so will be out of market til nov, likely. just waiting for fed cuts for the final hurrah. ahhaaa. kilroy, hehe. yea. on the assumption i do play, it's baccarat. best game on the house since even odds. everything else skewed to House. except for that B6 half commission thing. niama. am not much of a 'traditional' gambler in that sense tho... i don't do 4D, Toto etc either. if i'm in a casino, it's mostly to look-see. interesting psychology one learns there. okay, back to work! byebye! |
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| 08-Sep-2007 00:08 |
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DOW
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haha. idesa, if that's the case, consider the STI call warrants for 3600. ;) tuapekgong, agreed. same mtd, i only go in half so there's always room to 'fan shen'. dow's dropping; shortists at work as per the funds' call one or two weeks ago already; it's nothing alarming really. pure technical play, pure traders play. not the drop but the volume as well that one looks at, in order to determine short term direction. be careful of sustained drop below 13,200 and then 13,000 tho. the resistance is ~13,400, which the dow has not managed to break. nites all! |
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| 08-Sep-2007 00:03 |
SUTL Enterprise
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potiential stock to watch ?
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yeps synnexo, greed is the most difficult to control. i know i have problems with it, which has led to losses. >~< which is why, tuition fees. make the lessons count. my buy px for achieva is sub-20 on average; and to put words to practice, i actually ran a bit already. It's money management: less a qn of belief in the stock, but one's own risk profile: for me, i know i cannot stomach an all-or-nothing, esp in this kind of climate, which is why i chose slight loss instead. still holding on to some tho; an affordable level. so let's see how. Macro trend is what will always affect. on a general view: dow is majorly dropping. bernanke's hand is forced; it's a hung jury, really. my opinion is that he will have to cut rates because he has no choice not to. if not on sept 18, then the severe crash afterward will force his hand. either way, there's going to be one. nothing to do with money, everything to do with politics. Bernanke is a scholar: scholars always bend with the wind in the end. They're not street people who'd 'fight to the death' for their beliefs. aside, everyone always has the belief that "this time, it's different", but guess what? that's what they said in 1929, the 1950s, the internet bubble, the asian financial crisis. And rem, just 3 months back, what was the phrase? "Awash in liquidity". Doesn't that seem laughable now? liquidity's dried up. The theory of the black swan is the phrase that has been whispered in the fund houses and banks for the past month. ie, one doesn't believe in a thing's existence (a black swan) til one sees it. the black swan is here. the unbelievable is happening. Look at the 3 mth dow charts. look at the big picture. we'd be fools to think otherwise. pls be careful, ppl. not just on achieva. remember that in the market, the aim is additional profit. it should not cost you your family, job, relationships, life. one should not go into debt because of the market. Human nature is predictable in one sense: it seldom changes, because people are creatures of habit. Therein lies the key to TA. cheers all, have a good weekend! :) |
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| 07-Sep-2007 19:30 |
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Pay Off Your Debt or Invest?
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kilroy! gambler! *whack* :P haha. long article. in a nutshell: invest if you can make more returns on your debt than the interest rate charged on it. which was what elf did, actually. just to share with the undergrads/fresh grads who might be out here. the tuition fee loan is charged at CPF interest rate of abt 3% pa. so all you got to do is to beat 3% returns on the market, and you actually make on a debt. so a conservative 10% returns pa on the market, you actually then make 7% pa on a debt. that's what is known as a good debt. a bad debt, on the other hand, is something like a credit card bill which you can't pay, but keep rolling over, and paying only the min sum every month. you end up paying more. Basic rule of money management: it's not how much you earn, it's how much you keep. Elfie plays the market a lot, yes, but i'm also a saver by nature. standard rule of thumb advocated by most investment gurus and financial advisors: minimum 50% of disposable income is to be saved. There should be enough money to last you at least a year without a job in hand (i personally prefer 4 years tho, having graduated at the time when there were practically no jobs on the market, and any respectable job opening had like, 300-600 applicants). Additionally, i also don't factor in CPF in my calculations, since we can't touch that sum anyway, and 62 yrs old (68..72..84.. :P) is a long, long way away. aiyah. in the end, it's simple. never live a champagne lifestyle on a beer budget. Here's to beer! cheers for the weekend! keke. eheh, kilroy, why not tens, jacks and aces? hahahah. okok, will call the "PICTURE!" and "siam ah!" for you too. :P |
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