Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 25-Nov-2007 20:19 |
Gems TV
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Gems TV Holding
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apologies, but gems has got to be one of the most disastrous counters of the year. witness the fall from grace from 1.5+ to now, 0.44c. FA-wise, there is really no argument, despite analysts' consistently bullish calls (remember, when someone wants to sell, another has to buy): profit has consistently dropped, market is getting tighter with new competitors, and do you really believe the Chinese market buys its jewelry via TV ads? And how on earth does one cut EPS estimate by 34%, lower the PE ratio, yet still recommend a buy? sure, it might bounce up now and then, the way all oversold counters do. but that remains purely a technical picture, not a fundamental one. in this current market climate, perhaps safety is a better option. this counter is strictly for the experienced techies and traders. just my opinion. caveat emptor. |
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| 24-Nov-2007 19:01 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Yangzijiang
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btw. for those new to FA: need to watch the reporting currency when reading the annual reports of china companies. most report in RMB. if you do a direct estimate of EPS to S$ share px, you're 'underrating' the PE, NAV. By approx 5x. haha. for growth stocks tho, it's not uncommon to have sky high PEs of 50-100+. cheers! |
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| 24-Nov-2007 18:51 |
Others
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Lost $8000 this month !
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lol. yes. some personality types are not suited to be investors or traders. ever heard of the MBTI? go to personalitypage.com. useful info for those into a bit of self reflection. of course, take everything with a pinch of salt, but hey, if it helps in the process of self discovery, why not? arbitrarily, i daresay the ones who'd not make good traders are the INFP, ENFP personalities. since these are likely to be ruled by emotions and have difficulties following rules. any opinions welcome! hehe. |
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| 24-Nov-2007 18:47 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Yangzijiang
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hehe, i'm watching kepcorp too. but not yet. kc lags yzj and cosco. in order of movement, it's yzj, cosco, kepcorp. in terms of FA, kepcorp is the most solid of the three shippies to buy: good div yield, proven track record, and amazingly, low PE ratio, despite its price. plus, temasek backing. haha. if it's trading one's after, then yzj and cosco are better bets. they sure stage spectacular falls and rebounds. was actually waiting to catch yzj at 2, but it broke lower bollie again on 21st nov (signifying renewed downtrend), so it isn't quite done downtrending yet for the mid term. however, as with friday's movement, can probably expect a dead cat's bounce. do not seriously think it'll last beyond two days tho. likely kneejerk following H shares in HSI. need to note that on long term MACD, this drop is more severe than the aug 17th one, despite the px dif. see how lah. at this point in time, i'd rather go for short uptrend on a long uptrend, than try to catch a short up on a long down (ie, chaikin and williams up, but MACD/MA still down--this is the current case for yzj). dead cat's bounces are risky prepositions at best, esp if you can't watch the screen the whole time. anyhow, the tech pic for next few days shows resistance at 2.08. if breaks below 1.86, be prep to run, definite 'siam ah!' signal if breaks 1.8 and MACD still shows down. likely to be short and swift. good luck! btw, yzj and yanlord are tandem plays. they move together. kc: my strike price is 10.5. this will come only if sti tanks to 3,000-3,200 tho, which is my estimate. the alternative scenario is 3,300 support, which then means a modest rebound (no year end big rally), thereafter a long, slow slide into the bear of 08. between the two, i'd personally prefer a sharp tanking first, since that can set the stage for a rebound to 3,700 conservative estimate for the Capricorn effect, before a bear. fyi only. not inducement to buy or sell. haha. caveat emptor applies as usual. |
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| 24-Nov-2007 16:35 |
Others
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Lost $8000 this month !
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sigh. bottomline is simple. in the market, you play against yourself. so know your own personality. all the rest is just talk, white noise. take what helps you; if it doesn't, change, adapt, find/create something that suits you. no one system is perfect or best. market's a wide place, lots of ways to make money. cut out all the white noise and listen to yourself. |
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| 24-Nov-2007 16:33 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Yangzijiang
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yzj is a growth stock. for growth stocks, their PEs will always be higher, since it factors in what they are able to do (eg, 50%, 100% profit increase p.a). A good gauge will be with the other stocks in its sector. if they all have high PEs, then yzj is presumably fairly rated. in any case, china stocks, hung jury lah. look at its volatility. don't bother with fundamentals, just go by techs. no value investor would pick this baby on FA. you're better off with kepcorp in that sense. |
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| 24-Nov-2007 16:30 |
Straits Times Index
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STI INDEX
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think there's one more downtrend still, and quite a big one; on techs a lot of stocks not done bottoming yet, not even halfway through. so no hurry. |
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| 23-Nov-2007 11:54 |
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Lost $8000 this month !
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haha, cashiertan, i believe he's feeling bad enough already lah...the market will teach its own lessons. if one doesn't learn, no amt of nagging by bystanders will help. Good pt abt trading too large for one's risk tho. ihatcoy, am impressed by your trading system! :) jason, just to share some details on how i play warrants: rem in first place, i put in only what i'm TOTALLY willing to write off. So say, i'm willing to put only 2k into a warrant, this is how i'd play it: at warr = 0.005, strike to enter 200 lots (ie, half of 2k). cost = 1k. if warr dips to 0.001, i'll enter only half the amt, since you get more anyway: ie, $500 worth: for which you get 500 lots. Hence total warr count = 700 lots. For cost of 1.5k (excl brokerage). So an estimated rise to 0.05 will give returns of 33.5k. Hence the risk/reward ratio is 22.3x. Incl brokerage will be abt 20x. For a cost of only 1.5k, therefore, worthwhile to take the chance. (Note: the count of 0.05 has to be carefully counted based on technicals, not feelings--which is where i say you MUST understand your underlying instrument well.) One more thing abt warrants: make sure the volume traded is large enough to absorb all your lots at one shot, preferably. No pt buying a cheap warrant that you can't sell cos there's no buyers. So at times, i'll pick a warrant that gives lesser profits but easier to sell, over a warrant that can give potentially more, but which you might get stuck with. When these babies fall, they really fall fast. |
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| 22-Nov-2007 19:52 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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ewwww!!!! gross! live squids! >~< agree that fresh sashimi is good tho. hehe. tunas! i want! keke. tonersweat, can consider babcock and brown if it drops to its NAV (ie, 86c). cos its dividend yield is guaranteed, so at 86c if you can get it, the yield is approx 10% pa (paid in batches tho). Limited downside risk, since for reits, it traditionally has a support at its NAV level. To hedge against it going below NAV, can opt to enter in parts. If stock chiongs, you can always sell it off (capital gain) and buy back again. Macq is the other one. but at price to divvie ratio, babcock is looking better. |
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| 22-Nov-2007 19:45 |
Others
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Lost $8000 this month !
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hey cashcomstock...juz to share some general tips, which i believe almost all the seasoned players here use: 1) Never trade in an instrument you do not understand. So for warrants, if you are not able to understand the underlying stock/index, do NOT enter it. Esp since warrants are highly volatile--one day alone can make or break a person. For myself, i do play a bit of warrants too, but only STI, because that is what i understand. So yes, gains are less, but loss is also less. Warrant play is fast play. 2) Don't look at the potential profit, look at the potential loss when you buy! ie, decide your stop loss point, and if it drops to there, CUT. esp so for warrants. Not unless you're a value investor, in which case, you'll choose to enter more (kilroy's post)--but this also means you have cash on hand every time; because in the first place, you'd not 'whack' everything into a counter. Totally different strategies, they must not be confused or it'll be detrimental. 3) Yes. knowledge and skills more important. Consider it tuition fees. Like what asterisk said, the market charges dearly. Less than a mth to cover back: depends on what your capital is, and what risk you are willing to stomach. Nothing's impossible. But one should also not be too greedy and charge blindly. In the market, one feels nothing at all. btw. agree with cashiertan abt not putting in too much into warrants--cos yes, major gain, but also, likely major loss. Personally, i never put more than 5k into warrants (less than 5% of total cap), and then, i'm prepared to write off the entire sum. Also, i only play warrants as a hedge, not a major instrument. If possible, stocks are better, since there's a chance of recovery, and one can always average down if it's a good counter. Less gain, but less risky. Things with shelf lives aren't too good. |
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| 22-Nov-2007 11:35 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Hulbert appears to be contradicting himself: read the other articles abt insiders' bullishness, bull/bear sentiment and gold. traditionally gold will move opposite the stock market, since when markets crash, there's a flight to safety to gold, which is traditionally perceived as a safe haven, esp when USD is weak. The guy's saying gold is a temp retracement, long term up. the guy's also saying dow theory is sell, yet: "Corporate insiders' recent behavior suggests that recent weakness is a mere correction within an ongoing bull market and not the beginning of a major bear market." Like, huh? If in two different articles, one predicts an up, and the second calls for a down, then end conclusion is: he's always right. LOL. moral of story: never believe all you read, follow market itself. |
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| 22-Nov-2007 10:19 |
Others
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Lost $8000 this month !
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Market watch: it is tanking lah. Let's not even deny it. For those not into shorts, CFDs and puts, it may be a better idea to just sit out. Now isn't the time to be thinking of making profits. Now's the time to be thinking capital preservation. Live another day, fight another day. Long term (080808, beijing olympics), it'll be up. But short term, it's down, and likely a bad down. Dow has cut below 12,800. That's a crucial pt. Just a question of whether you can hold on til next year, or more worthwhile to cut now and wait for buying opps to appear. Count via overall portfolio rather than per stock? btw, just my opinion: if you're not into puts yet, may not be a good time to buy them now: DOW is super dropping already; if Fed does a sudden rate cut, markets will spike overnight. which then means that puts will drops, stocks will recover, but not likely to your buy px. so one may be trapped in a situation where both stocks and puts are stuck. |
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| 22-Nov-2007 10:16 |
Others
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Lost $8000 this month !
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hullo all! hey scotty, don't feel so down, same for all of us. and nah, i'm no expert; have taken quite a hit since aug. tho overall not in negative yet, it's painful to see hard-earned profits being wiped out. anyhow, just to share the following conversation btwn asterisk and myself, hope it'll help cheer up some here. keke. ------- elf: It's ok to die in a battle as long as the war is won. My mistakes--should not have bought when couldn't watch; should have cut at first sign of down. sigh.. asterisk: Les learnt: don't rush in, don't rush out, know when to rush in/out. Market charges dear. Better make it value for money. Lol. stupid mistakes. iGoon. elf: I'm iGoon beta then! LOL. Most impt of all, always keep a sense of humor. Haha. It's only money, its not life or death. Cheers! 
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| 21-Nov-2007 17:25 |
Others
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Lost $8000 this month !
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hullo.. yeps, decline generally still has some way to go; altho for some counters (notably the pennies) they are more or less bottomed out already-- with caveat of any aug 17 repeat made worse by margin calls and thin buy vols. the aug 17 low is the guideline. scotty, between holding and/or cutting loss: dep on the counter you're holding. if it's one of those close to bottoming, can hold and wait to ave out at bottom. If it's one of those that are just beginning/midway to bottoming (eg, cosco before today, kep corp) might be better to cut. apart from shorting, there's another option for margin players. a little mathematical trick to play for those close to the line: if one of the counters you're heavily vested in happens to have a gap up between the buy and sell px, instead of being forced to sell, you can opt to buy just one lot at the sell px at closing bell. That should give a certain buffer of safety for one to avoid margin call. because margin % is calculated based on the day's close, and not the day's low; so a difference of a few % can 'save' one from a margin call. this is one of the reasons why, for some counters, there's an inexplicable one lot buy up at closing bell for days on end, esp at down days. it's a sign that someone's playing and controlling the counter, on margin/borrowed funds (likely some experienced BB, since it certainly takes some derring-do). conversely if one wishes to force out other players, can do the other option, which is to throw one lot at closing bell and force margin call the next day for weak players. very cruel thing to do, but that's how it goes in the market. |
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| 13-Nov-2007 16:18 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hullo cashiertan, good to see ya here. :) yeps. just to share elf's own method (pls take it as just general advice tho, and adapt to fit your own personality, since there's no one style fits all method of trading/investing): -not more than 25% of total capital in one counter. for investing. this tends to be entered in parts, slowly, rather than all at one shot. i play only long trends for this (MACD bottoming to peak), and strict criteria: NAV, PE ratio, cash flow all are considerations. -not more than 10% of funds for each technical trade (it's actually closer to 5%). Can either be a bottoming trend to peak (might be weeks), or can be an intraday scalp: sometimes i'll run a trade in less than an hr. But generally, the riskier the trade, the less $ i'd put in. cos if one thinks long term, that you'd spend years playing the market, then really, what's the hurry? -yah. as per what cashiertan says. not more than 5 counters. i track an entire basket of stocks tho; some act as 'weathervanes', some are KIV, some are in operation. but the idea is to focus, so one doesn't lose concentration. -if your loss is 150k, do i assume you're playing margin? in which case, for me, i go to max 200%, excluding cash reserves. so even in drastic drops, i'm lowest abt 170% (the aug 17 crash), which gives enough funds to flip a loss. -stop loss policy. that's the most impt. 5% loss, exit. There's a trick tho: cos sometimes it just falls too fast, and you aren't watching so can't cut in time. in which case, it's mathematical: wait for bottoming and DCA the dang thing out. Take hell of a lot of nerves tho. urgh. and your technical skills has to be good enough to estimate when/where the bottoming is likely to be. ok! talk too much liao. break over, back to work. :) PS: the most impt thing: never listen to tips. haha. |
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| 13-Nov-2007 15:55 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hm..and perhaps most important thing..when one plays the market, you're essentially playing against yourself. so know your own weaknesses, where you tend to act wrongly, and put measures in place to control that. i learnt that the hard way myself; it's ultra necessary tho. cheers to you! :) |
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| 13-Nov-2007 15:51 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hey jasonfaxingliu, my sympathies to you... just personal reading of market here, hope it can aid you: sit still for this period of time. don't jump to enter yet. some stocks have bottomed, but a lot are just a third or midway through bottoming. The fund houses know things that they aren't telling. do enter your stocks in parts rather than whacking all one shot--might be more 'cowardly' this way, but capital preservation should be paramount. (this is the investing style). If you're a trader (dif style), it's fast in fast out all at once, in which case, a ruthlessly applied stop-loss policy is called for. as a tip, if you're playing for year end recovery, look for the blues. in any downturn, they'll recover first. Your next major up is beijing olympics. ie, sell all by jul-aug 08. Good luck! :) |
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| 12-Nov-2007 11:47 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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gold's nicely retracing in a tanking market. can start looking to buy on weakness, but go slow. ;) |
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| 11-Nov-2007 21:37 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Cash Rich YangZhiJiang and Good Earnings and funda
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eh. i can do FA too. victorian and shplayer taught me. many thanks to them. :) portfolio split up for trading and FA. it's dif strats for both. so need to be very clear on outset. my FA stocks are basically sit and wait, value investing style. market's very jittery tho. nd to be careful not to give in to fear/greed. does anyone at all know when yzj's results are out? can't seem to find... |
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| 11-Nov-2007 17:38 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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hey, apologies, my bad. DCA = dollar cost averaging. the investing model that's recommended by a lot of financial planners: put in a fixed sum every month/whatever, so that you average out the trend, because long term (over say, 10 years, 20 years) markets move up. personally think that view is too simplistic/lazy. but if applied rightly, DCA works, esp in volatile markets. one splits up your intended amount into portions (say, 2, 3, or 4), and enter bit by bit. it gives a hedge against falling too much and getting caught. be careful of gold tho, cos the trading vol is very low each day. ie, small lots can drop it by a lot. the last time gold hit RSI overbought, the next day it dropped $17.10. (the article is on money.cnn.com i think). am lkg to enter the counter, but will see how. the crucial spot price to break is 875. if gold breaks that, it's uptrend. caveat emptor yea...not an inducement to trade. :) |
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