Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 30-Nov-2007 10:47 |
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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yeps victorf, you're gooooood. :) keke. cashiertan, wld like your opinion on the 3 out of 5 bulls reading? by my count this IS the fifth one, but i'm still new to wave theory, so pls correct me if i'm wrong? using 10% dip from highest pt as the technical definition of a correction: (is this where we differed?) 1st wave was a long run from dec 04 to 12 May 06, high of 2665.99 reached. then corrected to low of 2277 on 16th june. 2nd run: to feb 23 this year. high of 3310 (3316 the next day): followed by sudden crash in two days. 2979 is the watermark, it dipped to 2931 briefly. 3rd run: jul 20, high 3688. then the aug 17 crash. that's cfm end of this bull. 4th run: aug 17 to oct 19, high of 3906. (we in fact dipped below the 3515 support to get to the 60 day support at 3,300). 5th run: now. following patterns, the runs are getting shorter and more volatile--indicative of end of bull phase--that was also how i had derived my estimate of early/mid jan as end of this current bull incidentally--which ties in with the capricorn effect macrotrend. do share yr thoughts and correct my misperceptions if any? thanks! :) |
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| 29-Nov-2007 20:22 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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i shd start holding stocks for long term too man. less taxing on the nerves. mebbe next year. haha. nono, singaporegal, it isn't that you're lazy, more like someone like me types damn fast! lol. k, gonna have dinner. byebye! tmrw market shd be down a bit. |
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| 29-Nov-2007 20:10 |
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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fyi internal talk from two fund houses/banks: this is the last leg of the bull. thereafter, it's a bear (what i had earlier said about the picture being clear long term--ie, 2008). tallies with all the tech picture and macro trends. this will be a rally on thin volume. shark eat shark situation already. so pls do know your own risk appetite, and play accordingly. if one cannot afford to play this nov-jan period, really, it is wiser to stay out and wait for the bear of 08, and then all the leisure to cherry pick the blues at PROPER valuations. If one has the funds, it's the best time to build up a solid portfolio for years, rather than punting all the time. simple historical logic: sti is overpriced. our book to price ratio is 2.6x. the average is 2.3x. in the last 11 Fed cuts of the past century, 2 occurred when our ratio was above the average. both times, after the first Fed cut, the market hits a new low. Wouldn't expect this time to be dif; just that the low will be delayed, because the Fed has learnt the value of successive cuts. bottomline: play til early/mid jan for capricorn effect, then get out. when a bear market is in, really, no such thing as a 'safe' stock. spore stocks are too dependent on foreign funds. so no matter how good a spore company is, if foreign funds have no money and pull out, then, the stock only has one way to go. doesn't take a genius to figure that out. caveat emptor applies as usual. let the market walk the talk. proof is in the practical, not the theoretical. |
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| 28-Nov-2007 18:09 |
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elfie moves on; elfie likes new things; elfie is bored of lengthy discourses which prove nothing but one's ego and/or vanity. who's right is of no point in the market. what's practical is what matters. what is, is; what is not, will never be. meanwhile the market hangs on a knife edge and the bets go either way. bigger picture, it's clear; but for now, toss a coin it's even odds. hence it's boring cos fools rush in where angels fear to tread. but fools are the wisest of men, aren't they? ;) there is, always, the flip side to the coin. and there i go, like quicksilver. *poof!* |
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| 28-Nov-2007 16:12 |
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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zzz. man oh man, can a market get any more b.o.r.i.n.g.... 
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| 28-Nov-2007 08:58 |
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hullo, not quite so sure yet. by my count it'd either do a big dip to 3,200-3,000 (then big rally), or the 3,300 support would hold (ie, modest rally). til new year for capricorn effect. may be a bit early to say--pending major US news on thurs--but looks like 3,300 is it... which also means slim pickings for stocks tho...upside perhaps abt 15%? need to be careful contra trap this thurs and fri, from the mon mini-bull. lets nibble slowly....remember, rather a live chicken than dead tiger! hahahahaha! there's the thought for the day. ;) cheers! |
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| 27-Nov-2007 20:17 |
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Lost $8000 this month !
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dun use metastock (altho would sure like to try it someday!), but concur: a few of my watched counters are beginning to show signs of coming to life again. at this stage tho, wld personally rather buy at a higher px on a 'surer' signal, rather than risk being in the below-mentioned 5% of herd. lol. wait and see. market will decide. good luck to us all! :) scotty, it's ok. what's lost can be made back. it's only money after all. may be good to sit out the last leg and prep for bear next year tho. best chance to pick up all the good blues. :) |
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| 27-Nov-2007 14:16 |
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Lost $8000 this month !
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hey mister kilroy, since you're a value investor, name ya one counter, tell me what you think of it? easttech. hahahha cashiertan, that's more like a kidnapper method! ya know, where the guy surrounds himself with a ring of people so that the police can't get him? keke. digression, sharks do hunt in pairs/small groups you know. great whites. they use one as a decoy and the other/others to whack the victims. >~< |
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| 27-Nov-2007 14:10 |
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lol yeps. bulls make noise but bears seldom do. elves (and kilroys and cashiertans! keke), meanwhile, are seasons all their own. hahahahhahaha. :P |
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| 27-Nov-2007 14:08 |
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Lost $8000 this month !
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asleep, lol, agreed. its what i like to call the shark theory: ie, if there's a group of ppl swimming and the shark is after them, ya don't gotta be the fastest, just gotta NOT be the slowest. haha. what i meant by herd mentality: just because 'everyone' says "chiong ah!" doesn't mean you follow and just jump blindly. just because someone 'in the know' recommends a 'hot tip' doesn't mean you don't do your research and just follow. investment doesn't work that way. so a definite no-no to this definition of herd mentality. that's what i mean by one must understand what one is putting his/her money in. as for not being the first 5%--depends. it all boils down to individual style. would say that a value investor totally doesn't fall under this definition at all.. k back to wk, cheers! good that you're starting young, and yea, same mentality. value investing is not for now, cos the returns are too slow too long for the capital i have. necessitates a certain amt of risk in order to hit min sum required for financial indep. |
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| 27-Nov-2007 11:19 |
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Lost $8000 this month !
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lol. cmi. i'm not a long term value investor myself. i live and breathe short term, esp as i know first hand how markets can be manipulated. and i've consistently done better trading than holding. the entire piece i wrote below was from a value investor pt, which as i stated at the start, was not my own personal stand. altho, just cos it's not my personal stand doesn't mean i can't see from its pt of view. must always keep open minded (but not so open your brains fall out!) ahhahahaha. :P aiyah, at end, live and let live. the market decides the winners and losers. we're just the players. :) yah. shorting is good for traders because it allows ya to play both ups and downs. must take care to understand what one is doing tho. herd mentality is the worst thing to follow. |
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| 27-Nov-2007 11:14 |
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Lost $8000 this month !
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hullo! good to know you're still a-walkin'. haha. nope, not in warrants anymore; locked in all of 'em little ones before i left. haha. am hunting calls now tho, but at strictly low, low levels. doesn't hit my strike, i don't buy. asterisk's my kid bro lah, not my pet... he's doing ok, last exam right now. muhahahahahhaa. i'm an elf! what do little elves like hoarding best? Gold!! heehee. i know good for damn short term trading, unfortunately working now, so i only go for longer trends since can't always watch. sigh. i dun think it'll be gloomy, i just think it'll depends on whether one has funds to buy at the downturns. Feddie and Bernie are caught! the elfie bets on a cut!! any takers? :P (don't ask me 50 or 25 tho.) eeee....you lucky bug. *envy* Alaska. sigh. one of the must see places before i konk. ahaha. |
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| 27-Nov-2007 10:46 |
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Lost $8000 this month !
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heya, kilroy doing ok i believe? :) yea. article is written from a strictly value investor's point of view. so speaking from that stand (note: my normal nature is to trade short term, and not value; not now at least): in first place, you'd not put everything into the market at one shot, since value investing necessarily means slow dollar cost averaging. you'd not buy just because everyone is buying. bull or bear, your strategy would remain the same: LONG TERM (think 10 years), based on the business and not the stock price. Based on fundamentals like NAV, PE ratio, ROE, div yield. It's a very strict set of rules, and at the start, one buys if and only if all these fundamentals are satisfied (a pure value investor would buy only at share px ~1/3-1/2 of NAV. not 2x, 3x as traders would). thereafter it's a matter of rolling in the dividends year on year, to reinvest each time, as long as the fundamentals hold. a slow, steady and solid way of playing the market. advantage: you last longer. in bears and volatile downs, you make more. disadvantage: you make less in crazy ralles. but then, the aim of a value investor is long term, it's not to catch all these crazy roller coasters. in fact, the coming downturn in 08 presents the perfect chance to build up such a portfolio. assuming one's still alive after all these downs tho... of bulls and bears: sudden rampaging bulls bring the gold rush of adrenaline, but sudden marauding bears leave a wake of red blood and white crysanthemums. so it all boils down to a question of how one survives the transition between the bulls and the bears, the bears and the bulls. |
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| 27-Nov-2007 10:10 |
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nah. am just a small puff piece of fluff of little real consequence to the world, just as the world holds little real cause or consequence for me. literature is the art of saying everything in nothing, and nothing in everything. if what is priceless is gold, then gold is what cannot be bought. In that sense, it too is valueless. in all the worlds that believe in barter, only two words apply: caveat emptor. haha. |
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| 27-Nov-2007 09:55 |
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hi sporeguy, thanks for the rec, will try and catch it. :) singaporegal will not put meaty posts precisely cos she's not a piece of meat. market's nicely tanking. funds on the ready? keke. cheers! |
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| 26-Nov-2007 18:03 |
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busy day at wk, just catching a breather here. hullo cashiertan, yeps, i do acknowledge what you've pointed out--singapore does have a greater degree of safety and law and order, cleanliness compared to a lot of other countries. and i do guess the grass is always greener on the other side. At end of day, it boils down to an individual's concept of "quality of life" perhaps? whether one wants to chiong and rush, or take it easy and relax. yeps, my consideration was the same as the couple you pointed out: work so hard for a little flat, when i can buy land, space overseas for the same amt of money? doesn't make sense...in the end of course, no right or wrong, just a matter of choice and willingness to accept the responsiblity for one's choices. and haha, yes, thailand was/is one of my choices. Esp since i've been visiting the country ever since i was a child and can speak their language. Family friends there too. lol, yes. continue trading. :P cheers all! |
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| 25-Nov-2007 21:54 |
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elf. is. bored. zzz. sighhhh......nopes, no hols, unfortunately. used up all my leave alr. sighhhhh.....urgh, the SGH index had better not swing into effect. :P enjoy your hols, singaporegal! :) boredddd!!! whine whine whine!!! ahahahhaha. i wanna puppieeee. s'pore's a boring place leh...apart from eating, drinking, shopping, what else is there to do here....such a small, cramped place...we work like crazy, we scrimp like crazy, we buy our puny flats, (for the married ones) worry about their kids' hothouse education, try to keep up with the neighbours...it's either complacency or worry. sometimes i think we exist in a state of disaffection and lethargic discontent. blind adherence to rules.... what else is there? gotta question the reasons for staying... elfie sings the blues. sigh. i want a coloured world! haha. sighhh. |
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| 25-Nov-2007 21:46 |
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Blue Chips
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sure sure, let's load up the list! keke. was just typing off the top of my head, so invariably will miss out some. :) another to put in: singpost. solid divvie company. and yeps, SPH is considered to be one of the most defensive counters. |
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| 25-Nov-2007 20:34 |
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Blue Chips
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hi simck001, generally, what's considered blue chips will be the "heavy weights" of the STI component stocks. These tend to be large cap companies, with years of good track record (defined as positive earnings year on year), high dividend yield. In the singapore context, more often than not you'll find temasek backing (scroll through the list of top 10 shareholders. hehe). they tend to be more pricey as well, since their NAVs are relatively high. so companies such as: finance: OCBC, DBS, UOB. Great eastern, SGX. Props: Capland, KepLand. bukit sembawang, city dev. multi ind: sembcorp, kepcorp, UIC, ST engg TSC: labroy, NOL, SBS, SMRT manu: SPC, F&N, SPH, venture. note list above is non-exhaustive. cheers! :) |
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| 25-Nov-2007 20:21 |
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Raffles Edu Strong
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growth stock. may follow the rest and retrace as per general market, but otherwise, worth holding on to for fundamentals. |
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