Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 06-Jan-2008 18:38 |
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Consolidated Jan outlook thread
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hm..just some more info: why i say everything depends on the dow: remember that what moves a stock market is the global flow of money. yea, ours is the sti, but it is not the only market in the world. and unlike china, we're not protected from global money--ie, that is why we will always be more volatile than say, KLCI or shanghai, which are relatively closed markets. volatility is the price we pay for allowing foreign funds play our market. so if fund managers are losing money in US and europe, then, they need to dress up their portfolios; to stem the losses arising from other regions. Asia is the only market still sitting on profits for the year. Hence, if managers draw out their money, it is likely to be from Asia. At this point in time, i do not honestly believe china and emerging markets will be able to pick up the slack when there is a Western selling off. and they do not always have to put their money into stocks. it can be held in cash; or where the boom currently is: commodities. Remember too that for every seller, there has to be a buyer. So when the BBs want to sell, what do they do? call for a bull market, have bullish analysts reports (guess why cosco chionged up suddenly), and when retailers and inexperienced funds (likely the new asian funds--there have been reports of shanghai fund managers not knowing what to do) rush to buy, they dump. it was the MNC banks like merril lynch and morgan stanley which had been selling off asian equities; to shore up their subprime losses (US has some ruling where banks have to have a certain % liquidity before they are allowed to continue ops). not coincidentally, these were also the banks calling for a bull run, that the run in asia isn't over, blah blah blah. goldman sachs escaped relatively unscathed: ever noticed that their calls have been in contradiction to merril lynch and MS? all i'm saying is, be careful of what you read; trust the charts and trend above all. do what they do, not what they say. note: the above is just my personal opinion. caveat emptor. |
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| 06-Jan-2008 18:23 |
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Consolidated Jan outlook thread
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heylo eldarchen, everything basically depends on the dow now. 12750 is the level to watch. for yzj, the techs are really weak. support is at 1.85, resistance at 2. needs to definitively break 2 on increasing buy volume for chance of further upside. be very careful because a definitive break below 1.85 may signal a new range between 1.51-1.8. this is a trader's counter however. so who knows... signs do not look good tho. lesser and lesser bb in this baby. if the rebound when williams hits -100 oversold (likely tmrw) does not surpass 2.05 (this week), that's actually a signal to cut. cos it means failed to break the higher high. (hence likely to try lower low in coming weeks) cheers! those not in market yet, sit out and wait! sti ~3293 is the genuine support level for this period of time. first support at 3350. see which it pings off and act accordingly. chance to build up a good blues portfolio for years to come. :) |
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| 05-Jan-2008 14:25 |
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Consolidated Jan outlook thread
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hey simck001, just a bit of fyi sharing since you're a newbie--pls do NOT take the following as gospel truth; rem that what i'm expressing is just an opinion, and i may not necessarily be right. heaven knows i've been often wrong. haha. But since you appear to be more towards a technical bias: stocks which i'm watching for this year: (note, not entered all yet; it depends on trend. in fact i'm mostly in cash and gold right now) Sit-and-hold investments: babcock and brown, singpost, ascott, FJBen, gold. FA/long trend TA plays (defined as ~3 weeks to 2 mth holding period): kep corp, kim eng, ocbc, sci, sgx, spc. short scalps (<3 weeks holding): cosco, yzj, yanlord. two other counters which i haven't quite decided where to place: likely somewhere between long TA and short TA, i'll let the trend decide the play: raffles edu and golden agri. may add in first resources. it's an either/or with golden agri. they are all stocks which respond to techs, although different indicators. apart from these, puts and calls when markets are volatile. So there ya have it, 16 elfin stocks for the year 2008. of course, if better things come up, i'm fluid. but roughly, this is what i'm focusing on. just fyi only. cheers! 
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| 05-Jan-2008 14:10 |
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Consolidated Jan outlook thread
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elfie bought sti 3300 put warrants yest. 'nuff said. dow's critical level is, as eldarchen pointed out, at 12,800. if we break this, it's freefall to 12,200, wiping out the gains from the year and hence making it officially a bear market. however, we've pinged off the level twice/thrice tho; the STI equivalent is the aug 17 drop, then sept and nov drops. So there's some hope yet. For mth of jan, we're either range-bound or down. Depends on the breaking of the support level. market is actually undecided. STI 2,800 is the lowest end of the range. We're currently range-bound, actually. since nov already. Between 3,300 to 3,500; the blues at the prices between these range (which was why i had earlier called the range for SGX at 12.10-13.50). Wider sti range would be 3,200-3,500. I'd put 3,150- 3,450 for mth of jan, barring a dow break below 12,750. Intraday volatility has been increasing. May be heralding the change of a direction soon. Long term investors may do better by sitting out the current volatility, and waiting for a crash induced by margin calls and panicked selling to buy in good stocks. |
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| 03-Jan-2008 22:15 |
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4th Jan 2008 - STI green in the morning.
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haha, don't bother predicting, simck001. if you do, it'll be expectation; in which case, there's hope and then, disappointment. gotta be more detached than that. play with the wind, run with the wind. take care yea. :) |
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| 03-Jan-2008 22:13 |
Sembcorp Ind
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FA and TA
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keke, yeps shplayer. i have a strike for this baby at 5.15. but will see how. overall market is reaeaally not good. the scary thing is that most have formed the lower high from the oct/nov area already; the qn is if they'll break the lower low: the previous time, it pinged off. but if it does break lower low, it's cfm downtrend. no capricorn effect liao. |
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| 03-Jan-2008 21:39 |
Sembcorp Ind
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FA and TA
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careful SCI; may break downwards. testing lower bollie. may test low of 5.3 |
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| 03-Jan-2008 21:16 |
SMU E.y.E - FA
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Market Outlook for 2008
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don't think it's so much a question of 'fair or not fair', or even of irrationality. markets are irrational. they'll always move on sentiment. am expecting volatile 1Q, 2nd Q to be stagnant; the real pick up will be 3rd and 4th Q, when all the banks are done writing down and licked their wounds, plus olympics and US elections. note that spore's economy shrank 3.2% in the last Q. the technical definition of a recession is 2 Qs in negative. The main movers of a market is and always will be the BBs. So doesn't matter how strong a s'pore company is, if funds sell, it'll only go down. the qn then is for attractive valuations to be reached, such that it induces a buy later on. Pick counters well is what i think: sector-wise, soft commodities, gold (if not already in it), offshore & marine, oil plays. no more props. that's done and high risk for this year. caveat emptor! hehe. |
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| 03-Jan-2008 09:34 |
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2nd Jan - STI open and close in red.
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keke, let's see how it goes. ok babies, it's play time! for those tempted to enter, not yet. major US data out tonight, including unemployment and factory. not expected to be pretty. so don't take any 'rebound' for today as real. if you are trading long for today, perhaps try to exit by end of the day. alt stay out. i'd expect a second tanking when HSI opens, then in afternoon when europe opens. SGX strike to enter if 12.10-12.5, large buys. BBs mostly not in yet. retail feeding frenzy currently. caveat emptor applies. cheers! |
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| 02-Jan-2008 17:39 |
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2nd Jan - STI open and close in red.
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haha. thanks for the compliment synnexo, but let's not go into onesupmanship lah. i just try to give based on the techs (aka, some 'facts' to support). of course, all decisions are an individual's own to make, hence the caveat emptor that normally follows, esp if i happen to be giving a precise call. guess for tmrw! haha ok, whee let's play! keke. idesa, since you're taking up, i'll guess down. 3442 sti for tmrw close (barring any major dow tanks). anyone else wanna play? just for fun!
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| 02-Jan-2008 14:42 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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handon trading...
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not looking good. too many large sells. approx 3:2 outweigh sell to buy overall (9099 vs 6100 k lots as of now). wld actually recommend a cut, lkg at across the board, dow futures and dollar/yen pair. just my personal opinion; caveat emptor. not vested, and i don't do shorts either. |
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| 02-Jan-2008 14:01 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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not sure if it's that simple, tanglinboy...market is very, very weak. expecting selldown in afternoon. large traders mostly out; but a lot of large sells across the board relatively still; doesn't bode well. |
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| 02-Jan-2008 11:18 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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handon trading...
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hi huatah and stockhunter, for yzj trades (as opposed to buy and hold) specifically, i use MA cross at 3 and 8 days, as well as williams and MFI to determine buy or not. stock is volatile by nature (ie, large intraday range usually), so the crosses have to be short. to counteract the false buy signals, use MFI and williams to determine. stock is currently range bound. i don't usually use stochs, but if i do, it's just to see the trend (so yes, set at 5 and 3). don't play US stocks, only watch the dow as macro trend. STI i follow sporeguy's and cashiertan's reading. hehe. vol traded on the 31st was 9535k. if pension did indeed buy a few thousand lots on the 31st, then he'd have singlehandedly accounted for more than 50% of the buys that day. |
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| 30-Dec-2007 16:05 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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handon trading...
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beg to differ from pension. if you are a real tech player, you would not be "too late" to cut loss because whatever signals you use, if read accurately and emotionlessly, will tell you when to stop loss. a cut is a cut. if one chooses to hold beyond the signal on a dip, then, that is emotional trading, it's not technical analysis. not necessary to adopt long term position using TA. it depends on whether one is doing intraday trading, momentum, or longer term trend (which could be from a few weeks to a few months, depending on how one chooses to trade). there's no fixed period or fixed indicator, it all depends on what one chooses to use and if one can follow his/her own rules. for those in this baby: yzj is rather weak. has been having lower highs and lower lows (altho the lows just ping off at equal level): proof: low on 20 Nov = 1.86, subseq high = 2.19 on dec 7; next low = 1.85 on dec 19, high = 2.05 on dec 27th. the saving grace is that vol is low. if drop below 1.77, cut. note: chaikin and a/d not very accurate for this counter. candlesticks (for scalp) and MAcross may be better. FA-wise, yzj is a growth counter, not a value counter. |
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| 23-Dec-2007 13:43 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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wheeee!! singaporegal's back! 
and ahahaha, yes, shplayer, the SGH indicator has proven itself!
wouldn't expect that big a jump tmrw tho; only half day, and a lot of ppl will be gone. but it does look to be a merry xmas after all! 
cheers all! elfie's gonna be boozing away tmrw and most of the week; hope my liver can take it. ahaha. meeerrry xmas! 
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| 21-Dec-2007 13:48 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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bought sti calls, sgx calls; locked in cosco calls alr. may enter again tho, see how. ahead of you, bro. ;) will however, dump on first sign of trouble. haha. cheers! :) |
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| 19-Dec-2007 17:07 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Yangzijiang
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testing lower low. along with its tandem, yanlord. not good. if break 1.8, next support is the 1.50s level. be careful, beautiful retailers trap set up today: random large buys which induced buy ups by small fries, followed by large throws. not vested. |
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| 19-Dec-2007 12:25 |
SGX
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SGX
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ahahah manikamaniko, still got a lot to learn from ya. cheers and merry xmas to you too! :) |
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| 19-Dec-2007 12:24 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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nd to break 6 to confirm uptrend, pref 6.2. some feeble buying. candlesticks show appear to be reversing short term. but be careful; vols are thin so large movements are possible. some large lots selling. toss a coin, babies. long term lag indicator macd is actually down. man i love this game. so yeps mediacraze, concur with yr reading. alternate to the mother stock, the daughter call to consider: COSMBLeCW080204. note i never convert warrants; i only trade 'em babies. caveat emptor applies as usual. not an inducement to buy/sell. cheers! :) |
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| 19-Dec-2007 12:11 |
SGX
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SGX
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short term tech rebound: up. mid term: need to break previous high, at least 14.9, to confirm reversal leading to uptrend. short term stochs is up, but long term macd doesn't show any reversal (ie, long term appears down). repeat: below 12, run. it's not the px, it's the trend. cheaper doesn't always mean better. likely rangebound this period: 12.1 to 13.5. unless net external forces act (newton's laws of motion ahaha.) may have better chance with calls, winstontkl. hehe. the one pinnacle was watching: SGXMBLeCW080401. strike px 0.07-0.075. stop loss 0.06-0.065; decide what you can stomach. expect target at least 10c. if can break 14.9, it'd be 15c. caveat emptor, not vested. all only suggestion; you pull the trigger, you bite the bullet yourself. the elfie disclaims any responsibilities for losses or gains on your part. esp when i'm giving such a precise reading. ahahaha. meeeerrry xmas!
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