Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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About elfinchilde
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| 14-Jan-2008 15:53 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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rat race, yea. that's why i wanna retire by the time i'm 35. it doesn't take a lot to make an elf happy, after all. all i want is a garden and a swing! no need diamonds, wine and dine, big house and whatever. meh. eh? can't deny what? yah. meditation is good, assuming one can actually get down to it. i can't even count from one to ten without being distracted. urgh. and its yoga, mister. with a 'y'. :P |
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| 14-Jan-2008 15:31 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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k, quick count: 3,150 is the first support. then the fall is to 2,800. quite steep. upside is limited to 3,450. pls take note that the sti doesn't appear to be representative of entire market. fyi. |
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| 14-Jan-2008 15:27 |
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yea...elfie tends to be too hyper and temperamental for her own good. trying to change. part of it is having had to live with high expectations i guess; that nothing you do is ever good enough. it creates enormous pressure and stress to excel. am very thankful for my friends and family tho. and for my geges shplayer and victorian, and my little bro asterisk! *hugs* keke. calm, yes. i need to breathe......*heee hooooo heee hoooo* LOL. |
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| 14-Jan-2008 15:18 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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thanks alligator and robbie! :) aie. looks bad. |
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| 14-Jan-2008 14:17 |
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cool one, huatah... my question is, what if you know what you want, and kinda know who you are, but no one else does?! sigh.... |
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| 14-Jan-2008 14:15 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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could any kind soul please direct a lost elf to the exact webpage where one can view the entire set of sti indices (including the sectorial ones)? found it once but can't seem to find it again... thanks. |
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| 13-Jan-2008 16:03 |
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haha, kid, no punt = no chance, but no chance also = no loss! hehe. punts are if you can watch 24/7 and have the intraday tools lah...but yeps, cheers to all of us! yeps tuatow, set targets and keep to them. Write up your own rules of investing/trading, and stick it to your computer screen. that's what i do. and yes, exit strategy is important. Even if you know all the tech tools, all the FA, but you don't know when to run, it'd not be good. perhaps decide in concrete dollar terms, what's the amt you can stomach to lose per trade? and then, buy the no: of lots accordingly. eg, if you cannot stomach a 10k loss on one trade, then, simply, don't buy so much! calculate risk/return ratio well, and realistically. cos one can always say a 10c stock can hit $1, sure, but how long will that take? risk/reward ratio: eg, if you are eyeing a 50c stock, and think it can hit 60c. but the potential drop is to 25c. (think jade, banjoo, and all the speculative pennies) ie, you are essentially risking a potential loss of $25 to gain $10. Ask yourself: is that odds you'd rationally take? and that's what elfie means by money management. sorry if this comes across as preachy yea.. but it's what i often need to remind myself too, so that i don't get too greedy and just 'whack'. have certainly paid my tuition fees, and definitely don't wanna keep paying 'refresher' costs. haha. good luck, i'm sure you'll do fine! :) |
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| 13-Jan-2008 15:53 |
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DOW
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heya, jan 17 is when merril lynch releases its results. The talk is that the writedown will be 15bil, more than market expectations of 12bil. think it may be more actually. internal bank talk is calling for sell, and that recession is here (of course, one never knows who to believe). To muddy it further, merril lynch last week released a negative report on citibank as well. kinda pot calling kettle black, if you ask me. goldman sachs called for a recession (since they're abt the only big bank relatively untouched by the mortgage crisis), while morgan stanley and merril lynch are skirting the issue and saying a slowdown. so for me, it's kinda time to read between the lines. Long term appears (ie, end of 1st Q) to be downtrend, in light of macro factors. But short term it swings in the balance--Dow may go either way--i'd rate a higher possibility of down, but with sharp upswings--likely 2--between now and jan 31, but STI appears more likely rangebound to down. lower lows scenario--picture is complicated cos individual stocks are moving differently now, and the sti doesn't reflect broad market. plus, US and STI volumes are thin. So would expect these few weeks to 31 jan to be very, very volatile, as the global markets swing between hope and fear. PS: nugget of fact: in the past century, there have been 11 Fed cuts. 9 occurred when the spore market was low book-to-price ratio, the cut then inspired subsequent rallies. 2 occurred when the sti was at a premium--ie, overvalued. Both times, three months after the first Fed cut, sti breaches a new low. The first Fed cut occurred in sept. we're having delayed effects cos of various reasons--auctioning of money, china/india's ascent etcetc. But stock markets are always about trends, and trends can be found in history, since the psychology of people very rarely changes. which is what TA tracks, essentially. The mathematical picture of the emotive mind. The art comes in the interpretation of the charts. So, the theme is the same, just that we have variations on it. just my opinion yea... and let's just say that i don't really care about being right theoretically (which is what the above is), as long as realistically, i can react in time to the market. cos predictions are just that, predictions. Reality is a different matter. If anyone tells you they are 100% 'zhun', they're lying. No one can predict the market. Need to know that the elf trades very, very fluidly. that's partly why i like to keep my posts more general, even tho privately, i can do more precise calculations. don't wanna mislead ppl; plus may not always be able to tell others to run in time. i'd be the first to dump my opinions if the market shows the other way. one can't be proud in the market, in order to survive.... |
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| 12-Jan-2008 23:18 |
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sti rally....lol, what's this, kid, eternal sunshine of the spotless mind? hope is a deadly thing to possess in the stock market... arm yourself with the swords of reason instead. May stand a better chance of survival. hehe. altho, the angels do take care of the innocents. haha. let's see how it goes... ok, sleepy....byebye. |
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| 12-Jan-2008 23:15 |
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DOW
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downtrend was more or less confirmed last friday already actually, when the dow breached the 12,500 range. need to be careful of the previous rate cut phenomenon, where markets priced in the rate cut and ran up before the cut occurred, only to plunge after that, as ppl lock in and cash out. sti had delayed effect cos of the new index i think. need to be very careful and selective on the spore market now, since the new sti doesn't seem to be reflective of the broad market: locally, a lot of counters have actually breached the nov low, or even the aug one, with M formation showing clearly. MACD for a lot of counters is also showing renewed downtrend. Keep light, keep fast. Watch jan 17. be careful of dead cat bounces. |
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| 12-Jan-2008 23:09 |
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hey sunshine, you're here! 
elfie gonna zzz soon though. take care! next week gonna be bloody on the markets. haha. must conserve strength and focus clearly on goals. no punting! keke. nites and sweet dreams. 
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| 12-Jan-2008 23:06 |
STATS ChipPAC
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Statschip trading halt
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hey fishie, no prob! :) pls do rem that i'm not responsible for any of your losses or gains tho! was just giving my personal reading based on the ARs and charts. Do make your own choice. Altho either way, i see that you're likely in a very enviable position of win-win, just a qn of win less or more, that's all. cheers! :) PS: no trouble about the AR. just count as my own practice session; i do read annual reports for FA practice (since i trade mainly by technicals), so it's not a trouble at all. :) |
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| 12-Jan-2008 14:57 |
STATS ChipPAC
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Statschip trading halt
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gah. just read their annual report. confusing company man...this is as far as i have calculated, pls do verify the figures yourself yea; it's caveat emptor all the way here: briefly: the share float is about 2000mil. so a capital reduction of up to US$813 means about S$585 cash return per lot (counting exchange rate at 1.44). This would be the approximate value of the capital reduction. note that their statement expressedly states that there is no guarantee the capital reduction will go through. So XD, you'd expect the price to fall to about $1. However, there's some buyout offer going on from Temasek. The offer px is 1.75, if they garner 90% of the vote, they'll give 1.88 per share. (when is this due)? it becomes a timing thing now. If the XD is before the buyout, makes more sense to hold, since then you'd get the cap reduction, as well as the offer px of 1.75 (assuming they don't renege on the deal) when you sell out later. but since there doesn't seem to be a timeline on the buyout, you might end up just holding the stock XD, which is essentially a status quo situation--price dip XD is likely to be equivalent of the cash given, if not more. personally, if it's me and i bought at 90c, i'd have locked out the counter at 1.52 already. this is a 68% ROI, incredible in this turbulent market. tech shows may head higher in the coming sessions tho. wld call a sell at 1.6-1.7, since that's close to the offer px: ie, upside from there on is limited. just my opinion yea. do make your own call. of course, if undecided, can adopt a half in half strategy: ie, sell half when you feel like it and lock in the profit first, and just keep the other half for the cap reduction, if it occurs. if it doesn't, no loss to you since the first half locked in would have buffered the cost/fall. good luck! |
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| 12-Jan-2008 14:27 |
STATS ChipPAC
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Statschip trading halt
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how much is the capital reduction worth? |
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| 12-Jan-2008 14:23 |
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missed yr post....eh, huatah, if you really wanna huat ah, wait for gold to retrace from RSI 80, then buy in. wld say about below $860 on dip in RSI is a worthwhile buy. if it can retrace, TP is 1000 per troy ounce. if not, its 950. (streettracks gold fund equivalent = 86, 100, 95 resp) all mentioned targets are fluid and solely dependent on the trend. *grin* caveat emptor, folks! like a good elf, i disclaim all responsibility for your losings or winnings. you pull the trigger, you take the bullet. meow. 
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| 12-Jan-2008 14:11 |
Sembcorp Ind
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What is Happening to our giant!
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likely to go down further. support at 5.1 currently broken, on consistently high volume. good fundamental stock with visible growth and earnings though. it's on my watchlist. have a strike at between 4.6-4.8. wld be good to accumulate this baby for long term holdings. wld give an arbitrary 4.51 as lowest possible in a re-enactment of aug 17 panic selling. let's see how it goes. relax, if nothing else, at least this baby gives good dividends. |
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| 12-Jan-2008 14:04 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery Group
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on tech downtrend. first support at 1.6, second support at 1.41. be careful cos it just broke lower bollinger. may however have a shortlived tech rebound soon: since williams is completely oversold: but do not get caught by this because the long term trend is still down, and not in any way ending yet. caveat emptor. not vested. cheers! :) |
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| 12-Jan-2008 14:01 |
STATS ChipPAC
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Statschip trading halt
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capital reduction: ie, they will return pure cash to shareholders. based on number of lots you have. so it's up to 813mil divided by the share float, which will give you an estimated amt that you can expect to receive per share. normally you'll expect the stock price to drop by the equivalent amount XD though. cf FJBen and Ossia as recent examples of capital reduction and post XD drops. if you'd bought in early and cheap though, it's a good deal. cheers! |
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| 12-Jan-2008 13:50 |
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hosen: (pure tech, not fundamentals): RSI shows has been sold down since 14 nov. high of 27c to current close 19c. consistent signs of distribution, with majority of selling concluded between 15 nov to 10 dec. thereafter vol shows dwindled out. (ie, BBs have exited) support is at 18c. be careful because just broke lower bollie. MACD shows stock on slow, longterm downtrend. downtrend is occuring on very low volume. signals loss of interest in this counter. on the plus side, do not believe much downside left; likely 17c lowest from the charts. However, chance for upside is limited unless BBs start accumulating it again. Likely to be rangebound 17c-23c for months to come. if the counter is not fundamentally sound and doesn't give dividends (ie, is it a value counter? if yes, DCA works better), wld personally recommend a cut. there are better counters to play. |
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| 12-Jan-2008 13:42 |
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Roughly, there are four general ways of playing the market--i'll just put them down briefly here, and with their personality types as well. see which fits you best. 1) value investing. Warren buffet style. You totally ignore the white noise of the market, focus on identifying good stocks with solid growth, that are undervalued. Five main rules: below NAV (30-50% below), low PE ratio, high cash flow, high ROE, good dividend yield. then you sit and just park in it for years. When the stock dips, you buy in more. You sell only when NAV is reached or 2-3x book-to-price ratio. Suitable for: those with high patience, methodical, conservative, rational, who can cut out white noise and are not tempted to trade at every moment. 2) growth investing. High PE ratios, the 'flavour of the month' stocks. Thematically focused. The way cosco ran up from 2.67 to 8.1 from mar-nov. Typically, the surge is justified by high profitability---analysts expect the company to return 50%-100% profits y-o-y, that's why the TP is always so high. Beware though, that these tend to crash, and spectacularly, once they're out of favour. The trick here is to use charts to see when to exit. Suitable for: those able to hold for months, who prefer faster growth than value investors (ie, can't really be bothered to ferret through tonnes of annual reports and sussing out the details). Typically such stocks are high visibility. the key is to identify the theme early so you get in before everyone else does. hyflux and osim in the past were egs of this. as were the china stocks like cosco, yzj, yanlord. 3) TA trading--technical trading. ie, don't give a whit about fundamentals. it all shows up in the charts. Suitable for: those who are rational, realistic, able to follow their rules strictly. TA is in many ways, stargazing. you need to see what is, and not what you want to see. If you're the hopeful and optimistic type, then, TA actually doesn't suit you, since you'll be likely to project what you want to see, rather than seeing what is. Helps if you are mathematically inclined and good at charts and indicators. You also need to be able to pick stocks that respond to indicators--not all stocks respond to all indicators. Length of trading is much shorter than the first two. normally, you'd hold between a few days to a few months. (this is predominantly my style actually) 4) Momentum trading--a variant of technical trading. which works on the basis that 80% of movement occurs in 20% of the time. So what you aim to do is to catch the breakouts. helps if you're aligned to the BBs, or know their signals (eg, the one lot buy ups on busd) and the counters they play, so you can follow in and catch it. Alt, sophisticated software that weeds out the breakouts and highlights them to you. This last is the fastest and riskiest of all the styles of trading. But potentially greatest return. I've locked in trades that yield 50% return in 3 days alone. Some can be run in 15 min for a couple of ks. BUT: You need to be brutally unemotional, and aggressive by nature: a cut is a cut, a hold is a hold. If you're the kind to shake a lot on dips and to yield to panic or greed, then this is not for you. And you MUST know your technical tools very, very well. |
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