Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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About elfinchilde
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| 21-Jan-2008 14:35 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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we'll see. time will bear the burden of proof, as usual. money has to flow somewhere, after all. :) |
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| 20-Jan-2008 21:15 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hey, huatah, in light of zhuge_liang's post on ellipsiz, have read the AR of the co. the following is the FA perspective k. NAV has actually increased from FY 06 to 07, from 44.9c to 48.1c. However, FY 06 to 07 shows a 44% decrease in EPS. Notably, the 2H FY07 is a startling 63% drop from 1HFY07. If so, assuming the trend follows (since macro view is bad), would expect the 1HFY08 EPS to read 0.8 or less (0.62 lowest estimate, given their profit guidance). so expect EPS range about 0.6-0.8. PE ratio ave about 30x. Hence fair value on feb 14th would be in range of 18c-24c. Take ave, means ellipsiz support should be 21c. but note company facing strong headwinds. may not be sustainable for the year. Based on FA, would recommend a cut. dovetails with TA. note that recent buy-in was cos of atlantis mgmt: they bought under some obligation (????--see sgx announcement). so wouldn't expect any rebound to be longlived. esp if they sell out again. |
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| 20-Jan-2008 20:14 |
CapLand China T
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CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT)
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look at the charts, guys...they were selling since jan 4th at least, if not 31st dec....blatantly called sell after they sold. (-_-").... careful tho, not done downing yet. may expect a short, sharp tech rebound after bottom is hit. no way of telling what it'd go down too tho; consistent downtrend since oct. renewed downtrend now. careful... |
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| 20-Jan-2008 20:07 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hell it, kid. you are what you are. :) may just be an x. ie, balanced. haha. ok, time for dinner. byebye! :) prepared for market tmrw? expect swings. down up down! wheee. heehee. |
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| 20-Jan-2008 19:55 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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but j's are supposed to be orderly and methodical and routine-based! you just jump in even when your hands are tied up! :P or is it the part abt liking neat ends and closures? p's are spontaneous, can't do deadlines, and very spur-of-the-moment. :P |
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| 20-Jan-2008 19:50 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hey eldarchen...the rebound is mainly technical in nature. cos the 3,000 support is relatively strong. so traders enter counters at STI 3,000 and run at STI 3,100-3,150. which accounts for the volatility in esp the blues. Some have started bottom-fishing; eg, sgx's volume was extremely high these few days. but remains to be seen if it's a genuine turn in trend or just a bear trap. dow is just resting above its 12,000 support. technically, it is a bear market already, since it has given up its gains of the previous year by falling below 12,200. and well, FA-wise, everything is just holding up because of expectations of fed rate cut. but really, how long can that hold up a sinking market for? we need the US companies to fully write off all their debts before you have a genuine clear view of what lies ahead. japan's nikkei is in bear market territory. they've got to park their funds somewhere. likely the beginning of bottom fishing. not quite sure if it's a wise idea for retailers to follow so soon tho. pre-rate cut rally is expecting at least 50 pts, but pricing in 75 pts. so you can expect a buy on rumor sell on news scenario by end this mth. personally, am staying out of trading for this period; too volatile. focus on bottom-fishing good stocks for long term holding may be better (or haha, ok, i'm just too much of a coward to trade now. hehe). |
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| 20-Jan-2008 19:42 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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retracing as expected. may consider a buy between RSI 45-50. |
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| 20-Jan-2008 19:37 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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yea, i fully agree with simck. best not to do any trading; the markets are too volatile except for intraday charts and longterm charts (ie, at least 3 mths). eheh, luostock, can i charge for this? :P baseerahmed, thanks for doing the TA! you're good. :) and no prob abt 'cutting into my domain', no such thing; i welcome the chance to learn and compare techs too! FA for indoagri, wilmar, firstres and golden agri (gar): firstres and gar are actually on my watchlist for the year. better for charting and value-for-dollar-invested is better than wilmar. note wilmar has been affected by its china export market (the requirement for license), so may be better to avoid it, esp since it has run up a lot since last year. longterm for the commodities sector is uptrend; as they are a necessity and the current boom cycle. they'll track the px of crude oil, so that is your proxy. the higher crude oil goes to, the more ppl will be driven to find other alternatives. crude oil is currently on a retracement, hence these tandem plays as well. it may be better to sit and hold these counters rather than trade them, since longterm is uptrend, esp in light of current global/US economic turmoil. techs: wilmar: on longterm downtrend, has potential to go lower, with the usual tech rebounds in between. support at ~4.36 and then again at ~4.0--with this latter being the strong support: if it breaks this, cut. may rebound to abt 4.8 level. firstres and gar: these have ran up very rapidly in the previous weeks, so no surprise that a tech downturn occurred. be forewarned that mid-term (ie for ~next mth) reads downtrend tho, via MACD. ~1.7 should be a good level to collect gar, ~1.4 for firstres (give provisions for a drop to 1.2). upside for firstres unknown yet, since too new to do much techs on; but upside for gar shd be to ~2.3 once the uptrend resumes (2.18 first resistance). indoagri: just beginning a downtrend. shd be able to manage a ~10c drop tmrw. first support at ~2.4, which it is just resting on. think it may actually not hold. sudden severe selling since 10th jan; don't know why. perhaps profit taking. Next two supports are at ~2.06, and at 1.84. Steep falls/rises to be expected since this is a volatile counter with large intraday range. note: all above just my reading. not liable for any of your losses/gains. also pls take note that current market climate is VERY volatile; hence long term techs may not actually work, since a change in macro factors would just sweep all the charts aside: techs work on basis of a continuity in the macro trend. once the macro changes, the techs necessarily change. hence, follow the trend, esp if you're a short term trader. g'luck! :) |
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| 20-Jan-2008 19:15 |
Sembcorp Ind
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What is Happening to our giant!
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coming results should be good (when is it due?) altho likely impacted by sembmar. don't average in yet; careful of dip below 4.72, may break below that. buy only if it can sustain the 4.9 on increasing buy vol. actually, you may not need to buy in at all...cos if can break 4.9, the next resistance is ~5.8. just fyi ah...the elf is not liable for any of your losses or gains. 
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| 19-Jan-2008 14:40 |
SGX
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SGX
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an elfin mischief thought just occurred to me... 4D!!! 9908! 2 big 2 small! an anagram of elfie's birthday, too! if anyone strikes, i wanna treat! 
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| 19-Jan-2008 14:33 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hm. dow close last night wasn't good. forget any tech rebound on fed cut already...i'm keeping in cash and hoarding gold. urgh. need to stop itchy fingers. >~< huatah, as per request, pls take only as technical opinion fyi (and don't take it that i'm cursing your counters!! :P): bottomline: don't throw good money after bad. sometimes it's better to take loss and cut rather than hope for rebound. DCA only works for blues and good fundamentals, rem that... jade: current px 21.5. support at 18/18.5, then again at 16. be careful of drop below 16, cos thereaft it's a steep drop to support of 8c. vital signs for long term doesn't look good: long slow downtrend on decreasing vol; signals loss of BB interest in this counter (on plus side, also signals that may not drop that much anymore)--hence likely to remain stagnant for some time to come. wld advise to cut on rally, if any. if a rally does occur, may go to 27-29c. strong resistance is at 30. ellipsiz: (-_-")...you bought at 54 (i assume around oct 5th), why didn't you cut at 49c...stock's been downtrend since oct...long steady decline which is what traders are most afraid of...does appear to be slightly rebounding; but it's a downtrend still--has broken all supports so can't tell what it can drop to...would actually recommend an immediate cut for this counter. jade at least is speculative, and it's the same folks playing it; so you know they may run it up again sometime. NOL: very high vol; may be bottoming out soon. not yet tho. broke aug 17 low of 3.7 which is a bearish sign. should find strong support at 2.87 however. (note jan 16 it rebounded off 2.88 low). May be worth a try to DCA at this px, but go in bit by bit in case it goes below that. if you can reduce your buy px to below 4.1, you'll have a chance at running with slight loss/no loss/slight profit. 3.8 then 4.1 will be the resistance. May not be so in this Q tho. NOL's uptrend takes at least 1 mth to hit the peak. yzj: ah...our fav baby. 1.39 is the support (1.36 aug 17 low); appears to have found some stability for now; altho long term doesn't look like ended downtrend yet. Watch it these few days and see. if can maintain above 1.40-1.45 on increasing buy vol, can consider starting to DCA on this. your run date would likely be in 3Q of the year tho: beijing olympics. buy on rumor sell on news. alt see if CNY can produce a surprise rally. don't get your hopes up tho. resistances along the way at approx 1.7, 1.85, 2.05. will be a tough climb... stx po: was very attracted to play this counter, but too volatile for the elf. haha. note that its intraday range is quite large, so this is actually a good trader's counter. note that long term it has actually formed a lower high, lower low formation alr, so may be good to run on any rally. 3.7 is abt the highest it can reach; first resistance at ~2.94. i'd put its upper peg at abt 3.36 only tho; in light of current market. beware that it is still far from its aug 17 low, which means may have the potential to drop to 1.73. short term williams is oversold and rising up; so do try to run on rally, unless you're prepared to hold long term. advsct: seems like another ellipsiz....may rebound short term to abt 81, but long term is a deepening downtrend...take care..if break aug 17 low of 70.5, consider just cutting. apologies to be the bringer of bad news yea....pls note that i'm just reading what the charts say; and on the plus side, i'm often wrong! :) fyi only, usual caveat emptor applies. |
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| 19-Jan-2008 14:00 |
SGX
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SGX
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tie up those itchy fingers lah....the small amt you scalp each day is really not worth the risk you're taking--the risk/reward ratio is disproportionate already...unless you have the tools and 24/7 time for intraday scalp, otherwise, it may really be much better to go long term in this volatility... you can make money for red packets by simply not buying too.... by my count we're actually on 5th wave for dow already...and macros seem to concur...but i'm a newbie to wave theory, so i could very well be wrong.. |
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| 18-Jan-2008 18:15 |
Kim Eng
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Brokerage Stocks. A sure bet!!
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(-_-")... just because they're on my watchlist, doesn't mean i always havta buy or trade them.....i'm like, only in two now, and wanna hunt at most 2 more... (-_-")....eh huatah, don't overstretch your finances/yourself leh.... |
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| 18-Jan-2008 18:13 |
SGX
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SGX
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yo. i suggest we cross this over to the fellowship thread: name me the counters you're vested in, i'll do some techs for ya. yea free of charge, but i don't guarantee i'm right ah. haha. it's just fyi for your referral. :) will do it later tonight or tmrw; gotta go out now. cya! |
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| 18-Jan-2008 18:10 |
Kim Eng
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Brokerage Stocks. A sure bet!!
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yo, not nece a mistake. ke is a cornered stock, that's why there tends to be gap ups and downs, esp as some accumulator comes in now and then and buys up/sells down the quotes (ke has been accumulated for a long time, ala gokongwei and UIC). one order of 100 lots can shift ke's px by at least 5c. so the 1.77 may not be a mistake; there was a gap in its buy queue earlier. some retailer may have panicked and just sold at whatever px appeared. huatah, i'm not good enough to be anyone's sifu lah... i keep making mistakes myself. but hey, we're all here to learn, so that's what i'm doing too. :) (have been learning FA from shplayer, victorian and all--am very grateful for their patience and guidance!) personally, i think knowledge is power: the more you know abt a stock, the more you can figure out the patterns. if there's no patterns, avoid the stock! 700+ stocks on market, don't havta trade them all. just pick a few you know well. and do what you know well. i only got 15 stocks on my watch list for this year, fyi (now that ascott kena taken over kbkbkbkkbkb). |
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| 18-Jan-2008 18:03 |
SGX
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SGX
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just woke up... *grin* you guys are damn funny. perfect amusement for a sick elf. (and i mean this positively!). thanks!
huatah, good call! and yep, with this volatility, profit is better than loss. in this market, a lot of ppl are dying; that you can make some kopi money everyday, that's wonderful already. lol. mike, i perceive you have raffles medical shares. haha. in any case, the market happens to be the least of my worries.  am only in cash, gold, got some ke (missed the 1.77 *wail!*). but more than 50% liquid, excluding margin; so a very healthy position to be in for this market. will just take my time. *elfie on the hunt*
hehe. cheers! have a good weekend, all! lets see the old dow tonight. |
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| 18-Jan-2008 13:41 |
SGX
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SGX
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hm...won't be watching afternoon; elfie sick on mc. gonna go zzz...so you're gonna be on your own. lol. arbitrarily, i'd say they'd run this baby to at least 9.6 (may not be today). but if it's me, i'd choose to run at 9.52 or thereabouts. a profit is a profit. no sense being greedy. follow the consistent large lots movement. unless you're lkg to hold long term... lemme know how this turns out! cheers! zzz... |
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| 18-Jan-2008 13:08 |
Kim Eng
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Brokerage Stocks. A sure bet!!
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missed the 1.77 this morn! kbkbkbkkbkb. have started taking first positions in this baby already (for long term, not contra/punt). this counter's a good one, NAV is 1.52. counting last year's divvie of 17c, fair value is 1.69. ke tends to do gap ups/downs tho. which is where the trading opp comes in. very consistent on the charts: just follow williams. buy on oversold, sell on overbought. range play. (for trading). watch it carefully. if it can break the 2 mark, it's up to 2.2. long term support is at 1.63 (the lower range of play: 1.52-1.85). standard range was 2.06-2.29. currently it appears to be 1.7-1.97. all figures quoted are rough estimates yea. follow trend and play. |
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| 18-Jan-2008 13:04 |
SGX
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SGX
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lol. smart boy. MAY, i repeat, MAY have bottomed out for now. Long term still undecided but shows signs of ending (unless US decides to tank further and further). but am starting finally to see large lots being consistently bought (BB action). large lots bought up to 9.52, so you're 'safe' to that px. pls follow trend and run tho. rem that all targets i say are fluid. g'luck! actually, idesa, i wouldn't choose to play warrants now since too volatile. i'm just being good, sitting out and hunting the ones on my buy list. no fixed px: entirely depends on trend. long term trend. |
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| 18-Jan-2008 11:05 |
SGX
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SGX
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eep! ok, live chickens! 479 lots thrown at 1053 am. abort play, abort play! siam ah! see idesa, this is why i'd rather play long term for now. safer. live chicken, not dead tiger! haha. |
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