Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 22-Jan-2008 14:48 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hi narmag, the following just fyi k, do make your own decision. :) and rem, i'm not always right! for the three counters couragemar, stxpo and biosensors, accurate as of today, techs only (haven't seen their fundamentals, so if you know them, that would be another factor in your decision). note that whether you choose to sell or average down would also depend on how much funds you have left. Sometimes, cutting may be better than holding, unless you can really average it down that low. esp so if you have no cash left: in which case, may be better to bite the bullet and preserve capital to enter another counter, or even the same one at a later stage. cos if you think this is a tanking market, you haven't seen anything yet. Entirely depends on your fund size etc. (digression: internal talk is expecting a surprise fed cut. will likely be a very brief rally then tho) stxpo: support at 2.11 then again at 1.64. upside resistance is to 2.7 likely max. So be prepared for dip to aug 17 low of 1.64 if you're prepared to hold. esp in this climate. note that STXPO trades on KOSPI too, so KOSPI's movement will affect stxpo, which accounts for a large amt of intraday volatility on this baby. courage mar: support at 0.29, then again at 0.2. upside is likely to 0.39 max for any rebound. Be careful of dip below 0.25 esp if sudden large selling occurs. biosensors: punted counter....my broker himself sold out at 90c....0.8 was actually the support, but it just broke it. next support at 0.69, then a steep fall to 0.585 (aug 17 low) to be expected. Pls be very careful with this counter. its a buy on rumor sell on news counter. upside is currently limited hence to 0.8 (the previous support). cheers! |
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| 22-Jan-2008 14:37 |
SGX
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hey narmag, i'll post your reply on fellowship thread; think i'm enough of a bug on the sgx thread already. hehe. let's not irritate the sgx-ers.... |
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| 22-Jan-2008 14:36 |
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idesa...what's cheap can go cheaper....by Graham/Buffett's terms, for a pure value investor, you'd pick only stocks at 1/3-1/2 of NAV. Don't touch property lah!! that's a done deal last year already! the big bossies have sold out already; us small fries should follow...be a live chicken, not a dead tiger! :P alligator, of your three choices, i'd pick F&N based on value and future promise. (this counter is not on my watchlist tho, so haven't seen its techs yet). for myself, I'm only considering ocbc and kim eng. haven't entered the former, and still waiting for 2nd strike for the latter (4 strikes in all for ke. yea i'm a chicken. hehe). OCBC is good cos last Q they took the extremely brave step of writing down 80% of their CDO obligations, which means this Q onward they're likely free already, or only minor debt left. still, no hurry to enter. i'm lkg for sub-7. On FA terms, if the US goes into a recession, then the longtermm outlook for kepcorp and SIA will not be good, esp for the latter in light of high crude oil prices, and lack of ppl flying. zhenxian, you get the NAV from the annual report of the company; can get it off sgx website. need to scroll through the entire report tho; but it's enlightening to learn FA. |
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| 22-Jan-2008 11:07 |
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hehe. smart boy. glad that you have a wise view of things. and also glad that you caught my hint to sell out all. was wondering how long it'd take you. :P apologies for not being more overt yea...but cos in trading, we havta make our own decisions, so i didn't want it to be me making the call for you, since loss/gain is always an individual's own to bear. pls don't sim tiah if you see them rebounding after you've sold tho. rem that sold is sold. and any rebound is shortlived for now anyway. (the way yzj rebounded frlom 2.06 to 2.19, but then tanked all the way to now). yep, just move on. no shame, no regret. as long as lesson learnt. (heaven knows how much loss i've taken over the years!) patience now and wait. sgx is a good counter. i may consider buying it, but not yet. cheers! |
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| 22-Jan-2008 10:44 |
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busy with wk today but thought i'd pop in for a break. huatah ok? tanglinboy: carnage can be defined in monetary terms perhaps. outflow of funds from spore was 4.3bil last few weeks. a further 8bil is expected to leave spore. all foreign funds. consider that 75% of sgx is owned by foreign funds. that's what i mean when i say it's about the global flow of money, and fundamentals have got nothing to do with anything--except recovery, when ppl choose what to buy. so really, no hurry to enter ANY counter. Just sit fast and WAIT to hunt the good blues, nice and slow. don't get obsessed with price targets, people. follow the trend. PS: huatah, am very glad you ran jade and ellipsiz yest. chins up! :) |
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| 22-Jan-2008 10:40 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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simck, it is perhaps not true that all TA is useless.. gotta remember that not all indicators are accurate for all stocks. I've called a sell on yzj since it was 2.06. and my indicators (MACD) certainly don't show any end to downtrend; in fact, the downtrend deepened since aruond 1.5+. May i know which indicators you used for yzj? TA is used to indicate direction of trend. It doesn't give you the exact buy/sell px in any case. That's why most of us do not use price as a guide. (or at least, not for me. all px i quote are always fluid targets to be shifted according to the exact live play). i locked in profit and cut loss on all my counters monday two weeks ago, precisely cos TA showed that a change was going to happen, and i did not want to take the risk. So difference in opinion i guess, but i just can't agree that TA is "useless". It has its limitations, definitely, but then, all methods do. It's simply how to utilise the tool well then, by capitalising on its strengths and being aware of its weaknesses. |
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| 21-Jan-2008 19:56 |
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may have a surprise rate cut if this goes on...short lived and sharp rebound if so tho. then can prepare for the real bear... huatah, the siam ah signal for advsct was 70.5. didn't expect it to drop so much in one day tho... take care all! |
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| 21-Jan-2008 19:51 |
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yo, mister huatahhhhh *grin* sgx likely to gap down on opening tmrw, but its intraday high may be above or near your buy px. depends on the severity of the gap down. but in any case, you may juz wanna run like the wind. no pants already, don't lose your shirt too. lol. just fyi only ah. don't shoot the messenger! |
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| 21-Jan-2008 19:40 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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idesa....i think ppl's nerves are quite sensitive already...may be good not to type it out in big red letters.... (-_-").... |
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| 21-Jan-2008 19:38 |
Others
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How much have you lost so far.
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cyjjerry, you're a counsellor? seriously? (and yes, this is a serious question) as in qualified/trained, specialising in which area, alt which are you interested in? |
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| 21-Jan-2008 17:35 |
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well, if nothing else, at least you've got guts. haha. good luck man...hope you come through this ok.... geez. handcuff yourself already. geez. |
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| 21-Jan-2008 17:32 |
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you either be prepared to sit very, very long (wait for dca), or just bite the bullet and cut. altho, erm, if you wanted to cut, why didn't you cut when i called way earlier at 2.06 and again at 1.95....may be more worth to sit it out now..just don't look at market. altho your choice tho. and yes, the supports are all not likely to hold. in a bear market, markets give up all of their gains, rem that. don't fight the trend. btw, may consider cutting advsct... |
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| 21-Jan-2008 17:12 |
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oh nooo....this is too much for an innocent elf. 
eh huatah, your jade closed 16. exactly the support i called earlier... lucky you ran... don't look back hor... |
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| 21-Jan-2008 16:57 |
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ha, why's this a discussion on pros/cons of TA again...haven't we been through this ad nauseum already.. sometimes, the obvious is what needs to be said, because people refuse to see it. As they say, common sense is the least common of all. If it works for you, take it, if it doesn't, don't diss it. As robbie said, either you win, or you lose. Lots of methods to trade, lots of ways to make or break. No one way is right. The market takes its own and time is the final arbitrator. In a market that's tanking, there's no need for onesupmanship. that's childish behaviour. And yes, TA can predict future trends, with probability. it's about odds, afterall. But most of us will not post it out here, because there are some who are likely to take it as gospel truth, and blame others for their own decision. It's a tough market. but sic vita. apologies if the above offends anyone. am just speaking it as it is. feel free to disagree. but above all, never let theory get in the way of reality. Do what earns. hehe. cheers! :) |
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| 21-Jan-2008 16:48 |
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(-_-").... nudist on SJ.....someone call police.... :P kidding, just kidding. keke. |
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| 21-Jan-2008 16:46 |
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dahling. you make your bed, you lie in it. 
g'luck!! |
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| 21-Jan-2008 16:43 |
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ok, elf seldom gives actual buy calls (except in private hehe), but seriously, consider gold. it's not even going below 87. what does that tell you. fyi, the external talk is that gold has hit max 950, so it's 'dangerous' and downhill. but internal fund talk is putting the retracement to 85-86 (rem, my call is 86-87), thereafter to 1,100. do what they do, not what they say. alt, just stay in cash. idesa, you ain't so bad yourself! :) yep huatah, stay out. when everyone dumps and there looks like no tomorrow; give it a few days, then buy. separately, elfie is dying at work!! major taichi!! wail....does anyone wanna hire her?!!! 
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| 21-Jan-2008 16:02 |
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huatah, when you said 'take position', i do hope you mean sold off and not bought in again. as for ellipsiz, frankly, if it's me, i'd just cut already. the potential upside is not worth the likely downside. you may be better off in cash. today's sales all retail; means BBs out already. but this is just my call ah.... yzj don't DCA yet. will stilll go down further. not inducement to buy/sell. and yea, avoid sgx. |
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| 21-Jan-2008 14:45 |
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hey sporeguy, was looking more longterm in view of volatility: GAR: lag MACD indicator shows just beginning downtrend. MA at 50 will cross support on 18 dec (if i rem rightly): the high/low that day was approx 1.67 and 1.77. So i just took the cut at 1.7. which was why i used the approx '~' sign. yea, stochs does show signal, but may be false signal: the mth before it generated a false buy signal too. 3/5 may be too short for the counter? (am not really a user of stochs tho...) i do agree that GAR has one leg up; but likely short and very rapid. basically, for me, i'm lkg for long term counters now (ie, at least 1 mth holding); to minimise the volatility and balance risk/reward ratio. huatah: you can see jade and ellipsiz for yourself. hehe. month end....be careful yea...you are likely going to take a further fall first; altho no telling what they can rise up to by fed cut time.... k busy at wk today; byebye! :) |
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| 21-Jan-2008 14:40 |
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just for today: support at $9. 600+ lots queuing there. mainly retail trades today tho. only three large lots traded; two selling, one buying. likely all retail. |
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