Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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About elfinchilde
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| 22-Jan-2008 22:43 |
F & N
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F&N
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heylo alligator, no prob. my bad, shd have found the F&N thread myself but was too lazy to. hehe. colorado, odds of 2.5 and above: ref to risk/reward ratio. ie, i'll only consider a trade if for every potential $1 i stand to lose (the risk), i can make $2.50 (the reward) in return. requires a calculation of potential targets, but yet must always keep in mind that targets are fluid. oftentimes, i'll run before the target is hit, as techs signal end of trend. but at the very least, downside is limited. so like the F&N case i cited earlier: at 4.65, the risk to drop to is 4.38. ie, potential loss = 0.27. however, upside is to 5.2. ie, potential gain = 0.55. hence, reward/risk ratio = 0.55/0.27, approx = 2:1. however, if you take 5.2 to 5.9, and stop loss at 5.1, (work out the maths similarly as above), the reward/risk ratio is increased. to 7:1. ie, for every dollar i may lose, i stand to potentially gain $7. hence from technical perspective, if you're talking a one-strike scenario, i'd choose to enter only at 5.2, although 4.65 looks 'cheaper'. it's the trend that's important to me, not the actual price. it's not foolproof of course, but at least when one calculates like so, it does stop you from taking unnecessary risk: for instance, would you take a reward/risk of 1:5 odds? ie, for every $1 you stand to gain, you may lose $5? that's why i've been staying out of the current market for the past two weeks; and that's what i mean when i say the upside is not worth the potential loss. hope this helps.. |
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| 22-Jan-2008 22:34 |
Others
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DOW
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hey cyjjerry, which site are you seeing the dow from? the money.cnn site not wkg on my PC leh...dang it.. | ||||
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| 22-Jan-2008 22:10 |
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Suicide case after stock turmoil these few days?!?
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lol. at the risk of appearing heartless, would be interesting to watch tmrw then. shortists scrambling to buy and longists scrambling to sell. topsy turvy day. dow futures have dropped more drastically suddenly. dunno if data feed right or not. separately, has anyone had problems entering iocbc today? |
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| 22-Jan-2008 22:00 |
Others
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Suicide case after stock turmoil these few days?!?
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heh. i hate to say this, but you can be sure lots will be stampeding for the exit.... | ||||
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| 22-Jan-2008 21:59 |
SGX
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SGX
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yoz alligator, the tech support for F&N is ~4.38. don't know what's below that. long term still looks down, but may have quite a sharp rally soon (likely tmrw: candlesticks show resistance of downtrend), since it fell steeply past two days. in which case, if it can break 4.8, it can run to at least 5.2. note above figures are for shortterm only (think end of this week or even shorter). longterm, i would actually choose to go in slowly by averaging, with more lots entering if it can clear 5.2 on increasing vol, since that'd mean upside to at least 5.9. if you're talking about a one-strike scenario (aka, just whack in): mathematically, risk/reward per dollar invested: if you get it 4.65 to 5.2, the upside gained is 55c, while the risk is a drop to 4.38 (you cannot put an earlier stop loss since 4.38 is the range support). hence reward/risk ratio is 2:1. not bad in this market actually. but the more 'confirmed' ride from 5.2 to 5.9 would be 70c potential gain. downside would be limited as the support is 5.2 itself, hence for me i'd set the stop loss at 5.1 (just out of range). so reward/risk ratio becomes 7:1. that'd be how i'd set up for F&N. fyi only ah....loss/gain is your responsibility. i'm just shooting my mouth off. heehee. *risk/reward ratio: ie, for every dollar i risk, what do i stand to gain? i personally like to take odds only of 2.5 and above. |
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| 22-Jan-2008 21:41 |
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Suicide case after stock turmoil these few days?!?
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well, good news: fed cut rates by 75 basis points. can expect a brief respite tmrw. cheers to those in market! hang in there! :) |
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| 22-Jan-2008 21:35 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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that's good! no wonder the 100 pt recovery by the sti in the last half hr...had heard rumors earlier in afternoon from internal talk that there may be a surprise cut. note dow futures still down 376 pts tho. but at least that's an improvement from -560 pts. |
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| 22-Jan-2008 21:30 |
SGX
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SGX
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hm...this is odd...going by the charts, sgx may actually rebound tmrw. and with a gap up on opening. (not sure if i believe my eyes. o_0). it's actually resisting its downtrend. short term for now. longterm still looks down. if the rebound is true, then the near resistance to break is ~9.4. ie, that's your likely max for tmrw. huatah, huat ahhhhhh! g'luck! 
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| 22-Jan-2008 21:17 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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hi simck, oh ok, i see where you're coming from. How i set up technically for yzj is: MACD, MA crosses (3/8 days) for confirmation, bollingers, williams and price momentum. this is the long term set up. candlesticks (for short term). busd is the confirmation, esp for intraday scalp. so as per my 30th dec post (attached below): how i derived the sell call then: (not sure what CMF and OBV are (?), and i don't really like stochs cos it tends to generate false buy signals (8th jan-10 jan, 15-18 jan as egs)) but using SJ charts: (keejang, free advert for you! :P): on price momentum: if you were to draw a line from the peak of 12 dec to abt 26 dec (extends to 2 jan later as proof confirmative), the momentum has dropped quite drastically from 0.15 to 0.02. moreover, bollingers showed range was narrowing (ie, large px change occuring soon), as well as MAcross showing a sell signal. (you would either have ignored the false buy signal generated on 24th dec at 1.96, or if you had done so, followed and sold out 2 or 3rd jan at 1.96 on the sell signal--ie, no-loss scenario to the trader). why it is a sell and not a buy even then is because the price held constant even though volume increased quite a fair bit btwn the two stated dates: from 23 mil to 33 mil. This indicates that a massive swing is likely to occur. Proof definitive came later from williams (you use williams and not rsi in a volatile market): if you look at the past year williams range for yzj, it goes from -100 to at least -10. However, this time, 27th dec and again on 2nd jan, it consistently failed to break above even the -30 mark. => indicates that any uptrend is likely shortlived and unsustainable. Rather, a large drop is in the works. I had called 1.77 as the support (hence cut if drop below it) then, as it was the stable px which yzj held in sept before its massive upswing. hence, any drop below that would make the definitive M formation (lower high, lower low). ie, would likely drop to aug 17 low at least. (definitely didn't expect it to go so low tho). and since then, (dec 26th, or 3rd jan if you had taken a false buy signal), on MAcross 3/8 days, there has not been a buy signal generated on yzj; in fact, it shows a steeper downtrend likely. This is supported by the MACD histogram: the red has not cut below the black histos yet, which means any uptrend is likely just a shortlived intraday tech rebound. hence, no buy signal on yzj at all since 26th dec. in fact, all the signals (for my setup) read run. ok, long story. hehe. pls note that i'm not always right yea. just sharing here. :) -----------------
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| 22-Jan-2008 17:39 |
SGX
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SGX
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hm ok...had estimated that today's range would be 8.1 to 9.1, with close at 8.6. was off the high and close, but more or less there then. (ie, sgx may be settling into a pattern). nope arbitrager, not from equities industry. i just live and breathe the market. hehe. and erm. advice is free, but what's free can also be deadly. it's not my advice ppl must remember, it's my caveat emptor! haha. cheers. get a good rest, all. tmrw it begins anew. dow futures down 561 pts. wonder if they'd do a surprise rate cut... |
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| 22-Jan-2008 17:36 |
Others
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Suicide case after stock turmoil these few days?!?
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hm...difference of opinion, altho interesting to see how ppl's views differ tho... i think what's pitiable is one who believes his/her life is valuable only with money. of course, not to be too pollyana that 'no money, also can survive!', since that's not realistic. but my point is, misery is a choice, just as happiness is a choice. it all depends on what one chooses to be: money's got nothing to do with character. jackjames, relax lah. with your skills, am sure you can make back. cheers! :) |
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| 22-Jan-2008 16:54 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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sigh. a genuine techie is either making money, or not losing any by staying at the side lines. panic is an emotion, it doesn't belong to TA. nor does itchy fingers. hehe. dun wanna go on defending TA liao. lots of way to trade; as long as one survives, its ok. cheers! :) |
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| 22-Jan-2008 16:52 |
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Suicide case after stock turmoil these few days?!?
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ok. enough is enough. apologies to the rest of the folks here for the following, but elf buay tahan liao. nickyng: you may have profitted from the crash, and your advice may be well intended, but there's such a thing as the message, and there's also such a thing as the appropriate tone and style. yours is blatantly offensive to those who have been hit by this crisis. people will stay out or get in as they wish. but whichever the case, you should not be gloating at the misfortune of others. it's appalling behaviour for a winner. *pissed elf* PS: in case anyone is wondering if this is just sour grapes, no. elf lost nothing in this crash. but you are NOT going to see me gloating, nor will you see me boasting abt it. Market takes its own. The least we can do is to be sensitive to one another. It's a tough world to survive in already, we don't gotta make it worse for others. That's all i feel. 'nuff said. |
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| 22-Jan-2008 16:06 |
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How much have you lost so far.
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yah. their salaries went up from 1.2mil to 1.9mil. like, huh, that's more than 50% increase. justified on what basis? Meanwhile, for us common folk on the ground, inflation going up, price of everything going up, salary may be going up, but if you look at inflation, the increase doesn't even beat it. that's why the ministerial elite and kakis can afford to have qian jing, sheltered, arrogant daughters who can blog "get out of my elite uncaring face." qn the value of this country man. kbkbkbkkbkbkbkbkbkb. |
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| 22-Jan-2008 16:02 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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4 pm and HSI is closed. watch for the real STI tanking now, as per yest. pls be careful... |
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| 22-Jan-2008 16:00 |
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How much have you lost so far.
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...no wonder why our GST went up, inflation went up, ministers salary went up.... and us small fries struggling. urgh. copy your reply, cyjjerry. thanks. :) |
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| 22-Jan-2008 15:58 |
SGX
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SGX
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haha thanks for understanding, huatah! (kena brickbats before for giving inaccurate TA lah...gotta understand that TA is abt probability, and not 100% zhun..) am just glad you sold jade. i expected it to break the 16c support, but not that fast. >~< hm. i think i shd start charging for this. :P hahahaha. ok back to wk.. |
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| 22-Jan-2008 15:55 |
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Suicide case after stock turmoil these few days?!?
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hey colorado, wouldn't say i'm good enough to recommend anything to anyone! :) for myself, i'm a techie and i can do scalps, but i'm staying out of current market. too volatile. frankly, to survive in this market, you either do very short term (intraday scalps--use MA crosses--eg, could have longed cosco at abt 3.9 to 4.1 this afternoon--don't hold anything beyond a day), or long term (am waiting for 2Q before stability returns to market, will be going into some counters at some levels, but in batches. expect to hold for at least 3 mths or more, collect divvie along the way). yea, if fed cuts there will be a quick rebound. if there's a surprise cut (that's why, don't get tempted to short now), expect an overnight rally. if only on the 29th and 30th, you'll have to run BEFORE the fed cut. since it'd be a sell on news phenomenon as per the two previous cuts. but note that since a lot of counters have broken below their nov, oct or even aug 17 low, these supports now form the resistance. which is why i'm personally reluctant to punt: the upside is not worth the downside. eg, for sgx, the upside now is to 8.8 only. while the potential downside can be traced to 2003 levels, even. pls rem that only 4.3bil worth of funds have flown out of spore these few days/weeks. there's expected to be another 8bil outflow. (see today's money pg...one of the articles). better chance of survival by going long term. play intraday only if you have the tools (esp busd) and the 24/7 time to watch the screen. may be a blink-and-you-miss-it phenomenon... |
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| 22-Jan-2008 15:14 |
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Suicide case after stock turmoil these few days?!?
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yea, agree with farmer totally. no pride or onesupmanship required in the market. There are always ups and downs, and even if one is making oodles, there's no need to rub it in others' faces. Be considerate to pain. It's the quality of empathy, which a lot of singaporeans, perhaps due to our materialistic culture, seem to lack. But no reason why grace should not be a part of our daily lives. As jensonlaw already said, it's only money, it can always be earned back. you can lose a lot of things, but faith in oneself, the honesty to face up to errors, and the courage of conviction can never be measured in monetary terms. they are what mean most. chins up to those who're still in the market! 
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| 22-Jan-2008 15:00 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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no prob... pls rem it's your call tho, elf's not responsible for any of your losses or gains ah... on the plus side, selling is overdone; shd have a shortlived rebound soon. may consider running then. |
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