Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 27-Jan-2008 10:36 |
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eldarchen: as said previously, yzj needed to break ~1.45 on increasing volume. friday was crucial for it. it finally managed to clear 1.46 (was quite surprised), but it was on a volume dip. hence it is not a true breakout yet. hasn't crossed a buy signal yet (refer to my post on yzj thread for the technical setup for this counter, if you're interested in learning). see if williams can clear at least -44. if you're going long term, prepare for dip to 1.1. overall, market IS weak. think that may be the fifth wave already. Gold is the weathervane--i didn't expect it to retrace upward so fast (such taht i didn't even manage to collect enough!! kbkbkbb). which is not a good sign: means big investors are fleeing equities, ie, higher probability of a collapse coming. I expect the Fed to cut on 29/30, but i do not think markets will sustain a rally. QDII funds: rem that china fund managers are newbies to the picture. They may very well get suckered by the more experienced BBs from other countries. China fund managers lost 5bil or something like that in the recent crash. That was why they started allowing QDII funds into other countries. You may see a BB cross-fire scenario on the china plays soon---foreign BBs offload them to inexperienced china fund managers (brief rally). then global macrotrend shows recession, china fund managers may panic and sell, causing a drastic drop. if you play china counters, either scalp, or go very, very long term. They are cowboy counters. growth counters are like that. yanlord same thing. Needs to break 2.78 for chance of further upside. short scalp: if it gaps up on opening monday, the likely max will be ~20c from the opening px. aiyah. long story short: if you feel confident, go in. if you're gonna worry, stay out. no money vested = no money lost. rem that. think long term. caveat emptor applies as usual. |
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| 27-Jan-2008 10:14 |
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thanks very much for all the encouragement, guys. much appreciated. :) altho, haha, think elfie does need to take care of herself. being too trusting is never a good idea. >~< CWquah, love the way you put it. yep, will try to stay positive. idesa... (-_-").....thought you were married already? stay faithful!  sigh. have had bad experiences with men. no more, man. (literally! hahahha. pun.)
tradechancellor, yes. As Edmund Hilary had said, "It is not the mountain we conquer, but ourselves." From my own experience, it is this: you keep thinking and thinking, and low leads to lower. Leading to a sense of inadequacy/guilt/hatred/or whatever negative emotions. This becomes a self perpetuating cycle, and sometimes, a self-fulfilling prophecy. Negativity has a way of feeding on itself, and consuming the mind and the person. Remember: we are what we think we are. In that sense, sometimes, deny reality. Because in the end, there are many versions of reality, and it is what you choose to believe in. In short: break the loop in your mind. which links to onesharer's question. (elf is a freethinker, but have read buddhism, the bible and some of the old religions scriptures): how i'd personally interprete it: "the truth will set you free." "i am the way, the truth, the life" one more thing to remember: Man was given free will, so that he may choose to believe. To turn to god, or devil, or whatever. Like what i said, reality has many versions (kinda like the way none of us can predict the stock market): so it is what you choose to believe in. that when, all alone, with nothing and no one, in silence, what does your heart say? That is the truth. Your truth. of self, of life, of God (if you had chosen to believe). And freedom then comes not from the truth, but from complete acceptance of it. Acceptance that yes, this is me, flawed as i am; yes, this is life, flawed as it is. Yes, this is God. Stripped from all the false prophets of the material world, all the white noise of the human world, what do you see, what do you choose? and then. In perfect faith and perfect love. The choice to believe. This is what sets one free. elves, for the dang life of them, will always tend to the light. that's why they attract darkness like nobody's business. It is a curse, but also a blessing. The heart of a rose is always darkness. but rather than running away, and denying the darkness within and trying to be only light (which is essentially a denial of the full self), the embracing of darkness is what gives one strength, courage, conviction. In a way that few others will possess. And therein lies the accursed ability to help others. (cos it also means that you'd always be in pain). Only shallow people are always happy. Do i want to be like them? Given a choice, of course. But there isn't a choice for me. So. why not just accept, and fully come into my own. elfie is a wild flower. she will always suffer the storms and wild weathers. but God will never let his flowers die. "The truth will set you free." it is about choice, and acceptance. kinda rambly, but yea, that sums it up for me. (note, i'm NOT a christian or anything!) |
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| 26-Jan-2008 16:16 |
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thanks, trymyluck. :) can i clarify one thing first: only those who GENUINELY need help, i'll help. if all you're doing is asking for punting tips, don't bother. elf will reserve the right to help those whom she deems truly needs it. i can't do indiscriminate help for free, after all. i'd just get swamped with needless greed/fear. so pls. assess yourselves and your situation well and rationally, before you approach. I fully and freely reserve the right NOT to answer those i deem frivolous. |
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| 26-Jan-2008 15:26 |
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haha. and for those of you kaypohs who've been wondering, elf is 27 yrs old this year. feels much older tho. |
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| 26-Jan-2008 15:22 |
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hullo. gotta admit, SJ has probably gotta be one of the oddest place for this kind of post, but well, i like SJ, and in the end, who cares? the elf child is the elf child cos she's precisely who she is. and i guess, i'm tired of hiding, and denying parts of myself. elfie is a manic depressive. (hold the judgments, people!). past few months have been very, very tough on me. but i guess, i wanna get out of myself, which is partly why i'm on SJ so often, really. Markets are about emotions, and if like me, you know the spectrum from wanting to live to wanting to die, then, there's the psychology understood. Frankly, market has been a stress reliever for me these past months. it helps takes my mind off things. this is kinda rambly, but i guess, it's not pity i want. it's that i do not wish to hide myself anymore. I'm very hyper, bright and (if you're one of those who've seen me in real life), kinda pure fire and charisma, esp when i start going on a topic. but that's the 'light' side. The 'darker' side of me is something that has always wanted to die (which was why, i guess, i took offence at nickyng's suicide thread posts--it struck me as being too insensitive--since, unless youv'e been there, you'll never know the kind of loneliness and despair a person feels, that they'd consider offing themselves. and it is something i'd never wish on anyone, even people i hate). so i guess, elfie is at a crossroads now. to deny the dark side of myself would be easy, since then i'd be so 'lovable'. but it would mean that i'd always be insecure, i'd never be fully me. Because, on the positive aspect, knowing darkness means one learns faith through pain, empathy, and a very strong courage of conviction. which is something rarely possessed. it gives one the very rare ability to truly help others. was a teacher before, at a JC. one of my boys then was this total ragamuffin, whose family, friends and other teachers had given up on him. I worked on him for 1 year, 8 mths (rem, JC is two years only). To the point that one day, he broke down and asked "Why?". My reply to him: "Because even if the whole world doesn't believe in you, because even if you do not believe in yourself, I will always believe in you." This is what manic depression is. always, your highs will be higher than most, your lows will be lower than most. The positive side is that one gains a very pure faith. because elf is not someone who sees what is. she's someone who sees what can be. And that is why, between cynicism and faith, i choose faith. I choose to believe in life, I choose to believe in empathy. I choose to believe in goodness, light, purity, and truth. If the price i pay for being myself is loneliness, so be it. but never again will i hide. so. haha. for those who are wondering: if you need any help with stock TA etc. feel free to find me here. I do NOT guarantee i'm always accurate, since it's always about probability. but i'll always try my best to help. and no brickbats or funny mails pls. only for those who genuinely need help. again, i do not promise miracles. but things can always be worked out. life can always find a way. believe me. separately, i'd like to thank my three brothers for being here all the while for me. shplayer (who is so patient and has such great FA skills), victorian (who, despite his flaws, has a genuine heart, and whom i'm grateful to), and my lil bro asterisk, who has always been there for me. cheers to life, folks! :) |
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| 26-Jan-2008 08:32 |
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hey eldarchen, re 2nd round, my answer can be found in my previous posts already: damn gold won't drop. haven't bought enough yet. kbkbkbkbkb. (note: as weathervane, if market goes up and gold too, that's not a good sign as it means investor confidence is not high yet. ppl appear to be transferring assets to gold/metals. which shd not be the case if a market is really strong, as then you'd stick in equities.) ----- it's frankly a toss-up right now; may go either way (talking very short term). for me, i'd rather stay out. weekends are long, anything can happen ------ nd to focus on long term counters. no more scalping -------------------------- the rally was likely a shortlived tech rebound.. next week will be volatile, btwn expectation and selling on actual cut. fastest fingers win scenario. am done scalping. will likely let go ezra mon, and focus on getting more of the long term counters slowly. dang gold shot back to 91. >~< |
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| 25-Jan-2008 11:02 |
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it's frankly a toss-up right now; may go either way (talking very short term). for me, i'd rather stay out. weekends are long, anything can happen. your call tho. if you're going in, try not to 'whack'....rather small profit than big loss....(that's my view lah) sold off sgx too alr. can't decide to sell ezra or not... nd to focus on long term counters. no more scalping. bad elf. >~< |
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| 25-Jan-2008 10:17 |
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sold off yzj liao. it can't seem to break 1.45. still holding onto sgx. eldarchen, hongxin seems ok still. at its crucial level now. hehe. (i'm not vested) damn gold won't drop. haven't bought enough yet. kbkbkbkbkb. (note: as weathervane, if market goes up and gold too, that's not a good sign as it means investor confidence is not high yet. ppl appear to be transferring assets to gold/metals. which shd not be the case if a market is really strong, as then you'd stick in equities.) fyi only. vest at own risk. |
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| 24-Jan-2008 21:05 |
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No more Ang Pow !
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haha, tanglinboy, lemme know which 'dud stocks' you're issuing. elfie may ask for angpow from you then. 
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| 24-Jan-2008 20:32 |
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china hongxin: TA: if it can clear 0.725, then, its next resistance is at 0.88. increasing accumulation on increasing vol. a good sign. williams also shows that it is not overbought yet. in fact, just crossed the buy signal today. tmrw will be crucial. need to break 72 on strong buy vol. If it can hit above 90, wld advise a run then. FA (fr the 3Q AR): In short, the company is profitable. Profit attributable to shareholders increased 136%. total assets have increased, while total liabilities have decreased. cash flow not too good tho, decreased by abt 50% to 356,966 RMB '000. EPS up to RMB 4.03 from 1.72 previous 3Q 06. NAV up to 50.35 from previous 38.06. Looking forward, need to beware of rising costs and operating expenses. Hence, fair value by FA terms assuming 2-3x book to price ratio (in S$) would be ~20-30c. note that the counter is a growth stock however, hence high PE ratios would be expected (ala cosco, yzj etcetc). but basically, by FA terms, the counter appears to be overvalued. unless it can report a spectacular 100% increase in profit or something to justify the current px... (perhaps shplayer could be a better commentator...) would use this as a trading counter rather than a fundamental counter. just my opinion ah.. |
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| 24-Jan-2008 20:12 |
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hehe. thanks gege for confirming. narmag, honestly, btwn the two, i'd keep CM for long term (yes, their cashflow is very strong; almost liquid no debts, if at all. slipped my mind to mention that). STX is frankly a trader's counter: moves so fast that even i don't dare to trade it. haha. ie, for me, personally, i'd keep CM for long term, STX for trading. just personal opinion ah....and note that if CM is for long term, then naturally, wouldn't enter all the funds into the counter at one shot. basically, slow game over the months/years. as long as its fundamentals remain unchanged, each time it dips to a strike px low, you'd enter more (esp since the dividend given out will be sufficient). til the FA changes, or 3x book to price ratio, that's when you'd exit. eldarchen, as per the above: only two ways to survive this current market. either go very short term (intraday) or long term (at least 3Q of this year--ie, olympics 08-08-08). In that light, i'm vested in yzj. Note: Not all funds in yet. have made provisions in case it drops to 1.1, or even IPO px. would actually like to do scalp trade, but can't do so cos work's been really busy and can't watch. so gotta go longterm. china hongxin: not on my watchlist, but i know it's a played counter. give me time to go through its TA/FA first. :) |
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| 24-Jan-2008 14:16 |
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worrying is second guessing. i just follow what my techs show me. if it says run, i'll run. that's why i seldom trade with price targets. k, gotta wk. not good to be on SJ while wkg. >~< see ya! |
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| 24-Jan-2008 13:59 |
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comp jammed couldn't post earlier. not gonna bore with all the TA details but briefly: (huatah??? idesa??? :P) yzj: vested @ 1.36 sgx: vested @ 10.06. fyi caveat emptor. DCA second strike: yzj: 1.1; sgx: 8.8 just in case. |
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| 23-Jan-2008 23:15 |
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hullo narmag and shplayer (pls correct my perception here if it's wrong): looking at the FA figures between the two, considering that this is likely a bear market coming, then for safety, one would pick couragemar for one reason alone: dividend yield. also because the counter appears to be cornered. ie, likely buffered from further falls, unless its top 20 shareholders sell out. not likely since they're old hands who are vested in it personally. on the other hand, as a trader's counter, STXPO may be better for running fast. tough call... |
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| 23-Jan-2008 14:23 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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as per my 20th jan post...retracement is expected lah...rsi currently abt 58, up from yest 52. had taken chance to buy some at 84.9 yest, but only abt halfway done with buying. dang thing won't go down.... gotta go slow for this one, and bit by bit. too unpredictable to tell when it will turn. long term holding (ie, likely 3 mths at least). target is at least 105. caveat emptor ah. not inducement to buy/sell. |
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| 23-Jan-2008 13:48 |
YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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overall pic still looks down. sellers outweigh buyers, esp on large lots (>100 lots) transacted. on the market depth, more sellers than buyers. buy support at 1.18, selling lidding at 1.25 (>1,000 lots queuing to sell here). may consider not buying yet... fyi only. |
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| 23-Jan-2008 11:28 |
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yahyah, pls learn FA from shplayer. he's been my mentor there. :) he can calculate all the fiddly FA stuff such as future earnings, which is off my league yet. immensely useful to learn both TA and FA. eldarchen...not yet lah...believe i told colorado that already....you survive in this market either by going very short term (intraday) or longer term (at least 3 mths). don't buy for long haul unless sti can sustain above 3,000, on broadbased buying and not just manipulation of singtel/dbs and a few others. >~< damn tricky sti we have now. huatah, oh yea, elfie drinks like a fish. hehe. cashiertan, yea, perhaps in future, we shd just aim for the trend, rather than giving any timeline. would cut out secondguessing. am not quite sure if this is wave 4 or 5 tho...but i'm not an expert in wave theory anw. anyhow, we'll let the market do the talking. :) ok gotta go! *poof* |
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| 23-Jan-2008 09:20 |
SGX
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hahahaha, smart boy. i just dropped in to tell you: "eh huatah, now that you've huat ahhhh, it's time to siam ahhhh!" :P pity you missed the 9.3, but a profit is a profit. don't look back now. lucky bug! cheers!
btw, eh, i think you owe me a drink man. hahahahah. ok back to work! |
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| 22-Jan-2008 23:10 |
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lol. no prob lah. just sharing here, esp since a lot seem to have been hurt by this crisis. knowledge is free after all. haha, dun wanna accept disciples in case it goes to my head. plus, stress. normally, i wouldn't articulate it out so lucidly (these posts take time to type!), since it's all quite intuitive and meshed up for me already: will usually make my buy/sell call in under 5 min, with all into consideration. don't quite know how to explain it; but it's all together for me in my mind, rather than step by step as i've set out here. ehhh...can't just ride on coattail! must learn to make own decision! independence! :P am currently holding portfolio for a few others already. enough stress. hahahah. but quite fun cos with a larger capital, you can diversify and hedge more risk than if one person's funds alone. hm, you may like to take a look at my post on the yzj thread then (think the title is massive selldown on yzj or sthg): i had laid out step by step how i did the technicals for it. may be useful if you can bear to go through the tediously long post, since it's an explanation of the past, which would give a clearer pic as there is hindsight to confirm it now. cheers! :) |
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| 22-Jan-2008 22:44 |
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hehe, paiseh to be so blur. thanks all! :) |
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